1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on September 21 was 1866 yuan / ton, and that on September 27 was 1866 yuan / ton. The price was stable this week.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on September 21 was 2268 yuan / ton, and that on September 27 was 2268 yuan / ton. The price was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate is stable, and the operating rate of enterprises is about 71%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium was about 1850 yuan / ton, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate is stable this week, and the operating rate of the enterprise is about 58%. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Shandong Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Anhui Province is 2250-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of raw material phosphate rock is stable, and the reference price is 376.67 yuan / ton. At present, China’s phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, with insufficient downstream purchasing power, less support for phosphate rock, and lack of large single support in the field. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term phosphorus ore market demand side improvement is not obvious.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the first ammonium into the end of the autumn phase, stable trading volume. It is expected that the weak stable operation of Monoammonium will be the main in the short term. The domestic market of diammonium is flat, the export market is good, and the supply of diammonium is relatively tight. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on September 25, the average price of domestic LNG was 2420 yuan / ton, up 1.68% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.55% higher than the beginning of the month, 0.68% lower on a month on month basis, and 13.98% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose steadily, but the range was not large. This week, the northwest region rose significantly, Shanxi, Sichuan and other places liquid prices declined, other regions sold at a stable price. At present, the off-season factors are weakened, the terminal demand is improved, the downstream replenishment before the festival is increased, the purchase heat is increased, the market trading atmosphere is improved, the liquid factory shipment is smooth, and the market gradually recovers its vitality. However, the maintenance season is coming to an end, and the maintenance enterprises in the early stage are returning to work and sales. The on-site supply is abundant, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth. The inventory is on the high side, and the liquid price is down. The overall market is in a situation of rising and falling. In terms of receiving stations, stability is mainly maintained, with sporadic small increases. Overall, domestic LNG market demand rebounded and the market gradually turned better.

There are eight days of holiday this year. During this period, logistics is not smooth. The downstream replenishment before the festival is more active. The liquid factory has no previous sales reduction before the festival. The manufacturer’s mentality is relatively peaceful. Moreover, the temperature drops. The demand for urban fuel and vehicles is good. Some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have enough confidence in raising prices. This week, Hubei Huanggang and other liquid factories have started to sell. The operating rate is slightly higher than that of last week, but the change is not much. The market supply is abundant, which hinders the shipment in some regions. However, there is no prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the market is relatively stable.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 25, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 2410 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 2680 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Shanxi, the average price was around 2590 yuan / ton, the price was down; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 2670 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Ningxia, the average price was around 2450 yuan / ton, the price was up. The price of liquid fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market was up and down.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from September 25 to September 21

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2380 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 40 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2390 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day, 2500 yuan / ton, 2480 yuan / ton, 20 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2680 yuan / ton: 2930 yuan / ton – 250 yuan

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2430 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Qinshui Xinao – 2650 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton – 50 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 3100 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 400 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 2050 yuan / ton 2050 yuan / ton

Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market negotiation price in Lubei market on 25th was 1620-1630 yuan / T, which was delivered to spot exchange. The transaction situation is expected to decline. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at around 1750 yuan / t spot exchange, some of which can be negotiated. Linyi receives local goods of 1710-1720 yuan / ton and delivers them without tax. There are not many offers for logistics goods. Most of the operators wait and see, and the market transaction is average. The methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1800 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price of peripheral goods is stable at 1630-1640 yuan / ton. The transaction is relatively general, so the market will wait and see.

The domestic liquid ammonia market is stable in most regions, and the downstream demand is rigid and stable. The winter storage of urea has started, but the relief of the current high inventory is not great, and the price support is limited. For the downstream fertilizer market, with the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage Considering that liquid ammonia is stable in the near future, there is a downward risk in the medium and long term price.

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is going up. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2570-2600 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 1980-2020 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price of methane chloride is well supported; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is poor and the support is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from business club believe that: in the near holiday season, downstream replenishment will increase, manufacturers’ shipment will turn smooth, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the domestic LNG market trend is strong, and it is expected that there will be further upward performance in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3520 yuan / ton, down 1.12% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in North China, East China and central China will lower the listed price of toluene by 50-100 yuan / ton this week. Port inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of this week, the port inventory in East China was about 125000 tons, with a month on month decrease of about 2000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to remove the warehouse still exists, and the price is slightly weak in the near future. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand has weakened, and the long holiday is approaching, the market is slightly cautious. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3500 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the second outbreak of the global epidemic is worrying about the decline in energy demand and the difficulty in digesting the new supply of OPEC +. This week, international crude oil prices are under pressure. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $1.435/barrel to close at $41.055/barrel, down 3.38% from last week.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listing price of Sinopec’s enterprises this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and that in East China was about 4230 yuan / ton. The latest external price is about 526 USD / T FOB Korea and 544 USD / T CFR China. PX market is expected to maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the market price fell this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3400 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 439 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / ton of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 530 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 550 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue to decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the progress of a new round of stimulus measures in the United States, as well as the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Generally speaking, xylene prices in the domestic market are expected to be weak and stable next week due to the approaching of long holidays and light trading.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price has maintained a downward trend since September. As of September 25, the average market price was 3401 yuan / ton, down 5.53% compared with the beginning of the month, and 33.93% lower than that at the beginning of the month. Crude oil price adjustment, cost side support weakened, PTA’s own spot supply is still loose, buying and selling atmosphere is flat, overall speaking, the negative atmosphere in the market is relatively strong, resulting in PTA prices all the way down.

Recent changes of PTA plant in China

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Fuhai Chuang 450 reduced the load to about 60% on August 31 and reached full load on September 7.

Ningbo Yisheng 220 was overhauled for 2 weeks on September 3 and discharged at night on September 17

Huabin Petrochemical 140 reduced its load by 50% on September 16 and resumed full load on September 21

Hailun Petrochemical 120 was overhauled on August 2 and is scheduled to restart at the end of September

Zhuhai BP 235 short stop on September 23

Hanbang Petrochemical 220 plans to overhaul for one month on September 30

Chuanneng chemical 100 plans to overhaul in October, the specific time to be determined

Yizheng Chemical fiber 65 is planned to be overhauled for about 10 days in October

Yadong petrochemical company plans to overhaul about 2 weeks in mid November

From the perspective of PTA supply, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons reduced the load to about 60% on August 31 and reached full load on September 7; Ningbo Yisheng 2.2 million tons discharged at night on September 17; Huabin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. resumed full load on September 21; Zhuhai BP 2.35 million tons PTA plant was shut down in the evening of September 23, and the overall operating rate increased significantly to more than 92%. Supply continues to be loose, inventory is still maintained at a high level of about 4 million tons, PTA supply pressure is still large in the short term.

In the crude oil market, multiple factors have led to a large correction in international oil prices. The most concern is that the impact of the global epidemic will intensify and the demand may be suppressed. In the latest monthly report, OPEC lowered global oil demand to 90.2 million barrels / day, about 400000 barrels / day compared with the previous report. The decline in demand in India and other countries is the main reason for the adjustment. As of September 25, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was USD 40.31/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures was USD 41.94/barrel.

In terms of downstream demand, in the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the polyester fiber factory was in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high finished product inventory, and the weak terminal demand led to the insufficient quality of “Jinjiu”. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 35-43 days, of which POY inventory is 13-17 days, FDY inventory is around 24-35 days, and DTY inventory is about 32-43 days. Near the National Day holiday, the performance of the demand side has improved. The average production and sales of major polyester factories are 110% – 120%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 300%. In terms of price, the current quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5000-5250 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that PTA plant restart and maintenance coexist at the end of the month. Next week, hailun Petrochemical’s 1.2-million-ton PTA plant will be discharged, and Hanbang’s 2.2-million-ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled. Affected by the purchasing action before the festival, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to over 74%. The price rise of some downstream polyester factories has boosted the PTA price, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound of PTA price in the short term. In October, the situation of low temperature and low fire in the downstream may continue to October. The industry is mostly pessimistic. The market is dominated by PTA oversupply, but some devices are still possible to be overhauled, which gives certain support to the price. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA price fluctuates slightly and acts actively.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3480 yuan / ton, up 0.87% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices rose slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in North China have raised the price of toluene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. There are signs of stabilizing port inventory, but it is still high, and there is still pressure to go to the warehouse. The market supply is still surplus, but the demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream shows signs of improvement, the demand for toluene is slightly improved, the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the overall supply and demand situation tends to be balanced. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia at the OPEC + meeting called for a “cheating country” to cut production, boosting market sentiment, making oil prices rise continuously, leading to a “dramatic reversal” in the crude oil market, the largest weekly increase since June. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.445/barrel to close at $42.49/barrel, up 8.82% from last week.

Downstream, TDI, this week continued to rise, TDI supply is tight, the market quotation continues to rise. Market news: in September, Wanhua chemical’s TDI listing price increased by 2000 yuan / ton to 19000 yuan / ton, and Shanghai BASF TDI’s listing price in September was increased by 4000 yuan / ton to 22000 yuan / ton (barreled). It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain an upward trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 544 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 562 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will usher in an adjustment trend.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling wells, EIA and API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the impact of US dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will usher in an adjustment trend next week.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, and the quoted price rose from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1710.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 23.33 yuan / ton or 1.38%, 5.70% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index of 79.53 on September 18.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1740 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1680 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of urea from clear water was 1710 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea have been up and down on the whole this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 2370.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2373.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.14%, 18.16% lower than that of the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly this week, from 3133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.06%, the same as last year On the whole, urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly, rising 0.62% from 5366.67 at the beginning of the week to 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. As the National Day approaches, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

On September 18, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 4000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, according to business agency data.

On September 17, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3810 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.78% from the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of September 17, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.3015 million tons, a decrease of 68600 tons (5.01%) compared with last Thursday and 23600 tons (1.78%) compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang continued to decline this week, with an average daily shipment of about 4600 tons in Zhangjiagang and 6900 tons in Taicang.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 59%, which is 3% higher than last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 89%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 600000 tons is currently in the commissioning stage, and the gasifier is in commissioning, and the overall operation load is not high. Zhongyan hongsifang’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol plant suffered a small failure during the restart last week, and is ready to restart according to the situation in the near future.

3、 Analysis and prediction

As some foreign units stopped due to force majeure and Saudi Arabia’s supply of goods to Hong Kong decreased, although the shipment from the wharf was poor this week, the inventory continued to decline. At the same time, the resumption of domestic coal making plant is slow, which also makes some factors to remove the storage. From the demand terminal point of view, the current weaving operating rate is slowly rising, but due to the poor consumption of polyester inventory, the current demand for ethylene glycol is still insufficient. Therefore, in the short term, the price of ethylene glycol may rise due to the stimulation of destocking and supply reduction. In the long term, we need to continue to pay attention to the power of new production capacity and the consumption status of downstream polyester.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (September 16): 392.50 yuan / ton

On September 16, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 390 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10766 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price falling by 1.57%.

The price of activated carbon in China is rising. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for water purification of coconut shell in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / T; the downstream demand of activated carbon in China is getting better, and the trading atmosphere in the field is active. The shipment is mostly carried out according to the order, and more attention is paid to the downstream transaction.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal as the main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon was supported, and the demand turned better; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials was weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, and the environmental protection policy boosts the activated carbon market.

Forecast: the activated carbon market is mostly on demand, and the basic small orders are purchased to meet the normal production. Most traders maintain the shipment and reduce the warehouse. In the short term, the price of activated carbon may be dominated by shock consolidation.

According to the business agency data monitoring, the general plastic plate in August showed a continuous upward trend. The general plastics index was 764 points on August 1, 2020, and 799 points on August 31, 2020, with an overall increase of 4.62%. The main reasons for the collective rise of general plastics in August were as follows: first, affected by the rise of international crude oil, which benefited the whole petrochemical industry, large plastic and petrochemical plants increased the ex factory prices of raw materials, which boosted the market; secondly, the futures markets of LLDPE, PP and PVC all rose to different degrees, bringing certain benefits to the market; third, due to the impact of international events this month However, the arrival of imported goods is not optimistic. Among them, ABS and LDPE are the most affected. LDPE is mainly dependent on imports, while imported goods cannot be unloaded at the port, resulting in tight supply of goods. Finally, in September, the plastic market is about to usher in the traditional peak season. The downstream production is gradually increasing, and the market demand is expected to improve. Under multiple favorable conditions, general plastics rose strongly.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in August 2020, there were 7 kinds of goods rising and 0 kinds of falling goods in the general plastics price list, and 1 kind of commodity was up and down to 0. The main commodities that rose were ABS (14.73%), LDPE (9.99%) and HDPE (3.70%); the average rise and fall of this month was 4.48%. According to the data, general plastics have different degrees of rise, of which ABS and PE are the most prominent, occupying the top three of the plate. Tight supply is the main reason for the sharp rise of ABS and PE, and also has a certain driving effect on the upward trend of other general plastics market.

Supply of goods in short supply has not improved, and ABS rose a lot in August

ABS market strengthened in August, and most spot prices in the market increased by a large margin. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14800.00 yuan / ton, which was 14.73% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

In the first ten days of August, the domestic ABS market price continued the consolidation of the previous month, and the offer fell slightly. After that, although the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate is still maintained at a high level, but the spot supply reduction is not improved, but intensified. Overseas public health events continued this month, which led to the poor arrival of imported goods. In addition, ABS inventory has been at a low level. Some domestic flooding has hindered the production of some polymerization plants, so that the recent supply situation has been tightened by multiple factors. At present, the business is in a steady state of mind, and the downstream factories are tentatively preparing goods, but they are still cautious.

Business agency analysts believe that: ABS market rose sharply in August, and the prices of all brands have a certain range of adjustment. In terms of cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials is mostly good, and the support for ABS on the cost side is acceptable. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream is cautious about the decrease of ABS supply, and the inquiry situation has increased. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted at a high level in the near future.

LDPE led the rise strongly in August, and the polyethylene market rose as a whole

In August, the center of gravity of the three major varieties in the spot market of polyethylene moved up as a whole. The ex factory price of LDPE increased significantly due to the shortage of goods. The high-pressure varieties increased by 9.99% in the month, ushering in the peak since 2020. The LLDPE and HDPE markets are dominated by this positive. At present, downstream demand is gradually improving, manufacturers’ orders are increasing, and the overall trading atmosphere of spot markets is improving.

In August, the PE market as a whole rose. LDPE in East China showed a continuous upward trend, while HDPE market showed a step-by-step upward trend. The trend of LLDPE was mainly followed by futures, which was slightly different from others, showing a downward first and then rising trend. And high pressure products rose most prominently. The market rose 300-1100 yuan / ton in August. Among them, the high-voltage market is one of the main reasons for its rise, because domestic equipment maintenance is more, and the import source cannot be unloaded at the port, resulting in tight supply of goods. During the month, the main and international crude oil of Liansu futures fluctuated and rose to the peak since March, which brought certain boost to the market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”, the northern plastic film has entered the peak season, and the market demand has increased. Petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex factory price for many times, and most of them follow the market, and the shipment performance is more positive. The order volume of downstream factories increased, the volume of goods taken increased, and the market volume increased compared with the previous period.

PE analysts of business agency believe: in September, with the gradual completion of petrochemical plant maintenance, market supply pressure has increased. However, the traditional peak season of “gold nine silver ten” has arrived, and the market demand is expected to grow at the same time. At present, the pressure of port inventory and production enterprises is not big, and the main contract of Liansu futures is up strongly, which boosts the market mentality. Downstream into the market positive, business mentality is strong. It is expected that the PE market will continue to rise in September, and the LDPE market will return to the era of 10000 yuan.

August PVC market shock rise, warm up “golden nine” coming

On August 27, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 6565 yuan / ton, which was 1.19% higher than that of 6487.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 2.18% month on month, and 1.61% lower than the same period last year.

In August, the PVC market first rose, then fell and then rose, showing a roller coaster market, quite volatile, and the overall center of gravity began to move up. This month’s rise was mainly driven by the strong volatility of PVC futures and the rising cost of raw materials. However, due to the constraints of consumption in the off-season, the upward range was not large, accompanied by a correction. The market fluctuated slightly, with a maximum amplitude of 2.41%, with an increase of about 150 yuan. In August, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased, and the preliminary maintenance enterprises began to operate successively. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the output of some manufacturers in some areas declined, and the pressure on the supply side was not great. At the same time, the social inventory continued to decline. Although there was a slight recovery, it still showed a downward trend year on year. The manufacturers had strong willingness to adjust the price, and the calcium carbide price at the raw material end rose by more than 4% in August, which had a good support for PVC. In August, the overall operating rate of downstream product enterprises did not change much. The real estate industry was still the main driving force for demand. Other product industries were not as expected and were not buying enough PVC. Therefore, PVC prices continued to rise without actual driving force. It is reasonable that PVC prices should be in the callback stage after rising in the middle of the year. After a short period of consolidation, PVC will rise again. Near the arrival of the “golden nine” peak season, the demand may increase, which will boost the market atmosphere. PVC may continue to fluctuate upward, and there is no lack of rising market.

PVC analysts believe that August PVC market ups and downs, the center of gravity began to move up, but the low-season downstream capacity to receive goods limited, inhibit the rise. In September, although the number of maintenance enterprises is decreasing, the demand side is gradually entering the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced, and there is no big contradiction. Under the situation of macro warming and strong futures fluctuation, the PVC spot market rate continues to fluctuate upward and is not easy to fall deeply. It is also necessary to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.

Good market in August

In August, the domestic PP market was more volatile and the spot prices of some brands rose slightly. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

In August, PP (wire drawing) market performance stable small rise, spot price adjustment. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other production enterprises decreased, while the decline rate of social inventory was slightly lower. Far upstream crude oil has a strong trend in the near future, forming a certain support for chemicals. In the first half of this month, some ports were prone to extreme weather, which affected the arrival of ships and cargoes, and the port inventory also declined. In the late middle of the year, there is a resumption of production of PP maintenance equipment. At present, the negative expectation of increasing PP supply is not obvious. The quotation of merchants is following up. At present, the downstream price reduction intention is obvious. It is expected that the upward adjustment range of PP (wire drawing) price may be narrowed.

PP business agency analysts believe: August domestic PP spot market trend shocks strong. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) fluctuated and rose, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, prices continued to callback. The current inventory decline, supply expansion expectations and futures rise and other mixed news at the same time. Downstream factory stock situation is OK, business offers have increased. PP spot price is expected to narrow the range of adjustment in the near future.

The international crude oil price fluctuated in August and the upward news was favorable to the plasticizing market

In August, the international crude oil market continued to release good news. The US crude oil inventory decreased sharply, the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeded the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and the crude oil production decreased Low. International crude oil prices rose in August, with WTI crude oil futures up 7.15%.

In August, the international crude oil market continued to be positive and stimulated, but the overall international crude oil market remained stable and did not form a continuous upward trend. It is expected that the crude oil price in September will still fluctuate at a high level, with limited support for the plastic market. However, in September, the plasticizer market ushered in the traditional peak season, and the terminal demand was expected to improve. With the increase of holidays, the film market demand was released. In the aftermarket, the market in September was still dominated by good news, and the general plastics market might continue to rise.