The international crude oil price fluctuated upward, the power coal price remained high, and the futures were mostly optimistic about the future market. The domestic methanol market rose sharply in September, lasting for a long time, and the price broke the “new high” of five years. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2615 yuan / ton at the beginning of September and 3605 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 37.86% during the month and 100.84% year-on-year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in August 2021, there were 59 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 29 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 29.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were formic acid (48.35%), lithium carbonate (30.45%) and hydrochloric acid (29.41%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the first three declines were liquid ammonia (- 21.16%), chloroform (- 16.00%) and urea (- 13.43%). The average rise and fall this month was 3.39%.

Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society in 2017-2021:

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of September 29:

Region, price

Qinghai region 2930 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Shanxi region 3310-3350 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 3300-3320 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian region 3380 yuan / ton, tax included, tank discharge nearby

Lianghu area Actual ex factory reference: 3280-3400 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 3400-3450 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region 3365-3370 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Comparison chart of price trend of coal (upstream products) and methanol in business community:

At the beginning of June, the methanol market in the mainland was weak and the port was strong, mainly due to the limited terminal demand in the mainland and the general mentality of traders; Dual control affects the capital mentality, coupled with the strong rise of power coal, the rise of methanol futures Ma drives the spot of the port.

In mid June, the methanol market rose sharply, and the strong futures led the national long sentiment. The inventory of mainstream production plants remained low, the pressure was difficult to show, and there was a demand for goods in the downstream, which supported the market situation in the main methanol production areas to continue to rise sharply.

In late June, under the influence of policies, the supply of goods in the mainland was limited, and the downstream goods preparation was more active before the national day. The downstream strong goods preparation operation synchronously supported the sharp rise of the market, and mainland traders did not dare to be bearish under the logic of cost promotion.

Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:

In the downstream, the prices of most products in the methanol industry chain rose, the coal prices of methanol upstream products rose narrowly, and the price of natural gas was stable, which strongly supported the cost of methanol; Among downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong increased the most.

Comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) price trend of business society:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on September 28, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $459.00-460.00/t, up US $16 / T. US Gulf methanol market closed at 132.00-133.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 384.50-385.50 euros / ton, up 17 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 459.00-460.00/t USD 16 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 132.00-133.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 384.50-385.50 euros / ton 17 euros / ton

In the future, the high coal price is difficult, and the cost support of methanol is still obvious. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the short-term methanol market may continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 11825 yuan / ton on September 28, up 2462.5 yuan from 9362.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 26.3% in the month and 77.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the PVC market continued to rise, with an increase of more than 26% in the month. The price soared to more than 11000 yuan / ton. Shandong Xinfa and other enterprises have risen to more than 12000 yuan / ton, and some ethylene methods have also risen to 13000 yuan / ton. Most enterprises have closed their plates and stopped reporting, and continue to brush High PVC, which makes people unable to climb up and directly seal their gods. This month, with the strong support of cost and supply, the PVC market continued to rise, and the futures price once rose by the limit, driving the sharp rise of the spot market to a new high in recent three years. In the first week of September, the golden nine effect was not obvious, with an increase of 0.8% during the week, and the demand was increased slowly. However, the maintenance was started in autumn, and the maintenance of large devices was planned. The supply side was good, and the PVC price rose. In the second week, due to the high price of raw materials, some PVC enterprises reduced the load of devices for cost consideration, tightened the supply end again, and the expected current price exceeded 10000 yuan hand in hand. In the third week, the current price of PVC broke through the height of last week again and stood at the top of 10000 yuan. In addition, the energy consumption was double controlled, the power supply was limited and the production was reduced, the supply of calcium carbide was in short supply, the price rose, and the cost continued to support the further rise of PVC price. In the fourth week, the price of raw calcium carbide rose sharply to 6150 yuan / ton, driving the price of PVC to rise sharply, with an increase of 5.19% in the week. Towards the end of the month, the raw calcium carbide rose more rapidly, with an increase of about 30% in the month, and the highest price was 7200 yuan / ton. The superimposed PVC supply was further tightened to help PVC continue to rise strongly. The main contract rose once on the 27th, and the highest price on the 28th was 11700, while the spot market continued to rise in the range of more than 500 yuan / ton, resulting in strong market sentiment.

According to the weekly rise and fall from July 5 to September 26, 2021, PVC began to open the upward channel in August. The rise in September was strong, with an increase of 4.65% in the week on July 6, a slowdown in the week on September 13, an increase of 5.19% in the week on September 20, and a sharp rise near the weekend. On the whole, the rise in PVC in September was amazing.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 11700-11800 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 11850-11950 yuan / ton; Market prices rose sharply throughout the week.

Import and export: in August 2021, the import volume of PVC pure powder in China was 48200 tons, an increase of 33.7% month on month and a decrease of 60% year on year; In August, China’s export volume of PVC pure powder was 68900 tons, an increase of 11.1% month on month and 127.7% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, China imported 254000 tons of pure PVC powder, a decrease of 65.6% over the same period last year. From January to August, China exported 1234000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 290.5% over the same period last year.

The rise of the external price has boosted the rising atmosphere of the domestic PVC market. At present, CFR China Zhang 20 is at US $1420 / T, CFR Southeast Asia is up 100 at US $1510 / T, and CFR India is up 160 at US $1800 / T.

region workmanship 9 / 28 (yuan / ton) 9 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 11760-12040 9400-9500 + 2360/+2540 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 11850-12100 9410-9480 + 2440/+2620 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 11830-12010 9270-9370 + 2560/+2640 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 11920-12300 9250-9500 + 2670/+2800 Delivered

International crude oil, on September 27, the international oil price continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.45/barrel, an increase of US $1.47 or 2.0%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.72/barrel, an increase of US $1.49 or 1.9%. Brent crude oil rose to a high since October 2018, approaching the $80 mark in the session. The economy of the world’s major economies continued to recover and fuel demand rebounded, but U.S. inventories continued to decline, and the oil and gas recovery in the Gulf of Mexico was slow. In addition, it is difficult for the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) to increase production in the short term, and the supply-demand gap is expected to strongly support oil prices.

For ethylene, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend in September. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1131-1141 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1046-1056 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 16th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1178-1189 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1124-1132 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States has weakened and consolidated. As of the 27th, the price is 795-812 US dollars / ton. The overall demand of the external ethylene market in September is acceptable. Asian ethylene has raised the ethylene market by its own strength, while European and American ethylene fluctuates slightly up and down, which is generally stable.

Calcium carbide, in mid and early October, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The prices of raw materials coke and blue carbon were adjusted at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC and 1,4 butanediol market continued to rise, and the downstream demand was strong. The new round of double control of energy consumption is deepened, enterprises limit power and production, and the output of calcium carbide is reduced, which is in short supply. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in the middle and early October. The future market will pay attention to the construction of downstream enterprises.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, with strong support on the cost side. In addition, most PVC devices operate unsaturated, the market supply is in short supply, and the PVC market rises sharply. The futures price once rose by the limit, which boosted the rapid rise of spot market prices. Although the demand for follow-up is insufficient, the enthusiasm for goods preparation before the National Day is general, and the market trading atmosphere is poor, However, it is difficult to reverse the general trend, and the high cost situation is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PVC market is still strong, and there are further upward expectations.

According to the data of business agency, as of September 26, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4890.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.41% from 4870.00 yuan / ton on September 20.

On September 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 99.04, the same as yesterday, down 14.55% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 114.93% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials have limited support for fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of September 26, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 4850 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 4950 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5000 yuan / ton.

International oil prices continued to rise. The recent rise in oil prices was mainly due to the slow recovery of oil and gas production in the United States Gulf region, coupled with the increase in the capacity utilization rate of refineries on the east coast of the United States to 93%, a record high since May. The continuous decline of U.S. crude oil inventories formed a strong support for oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of September 22, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 156000 barrels to a two-week high of 21.457 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 14000 barrels to a two-week low of 10.847 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 924000 barrels to a seven week low of 13.056 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil continues to rise this week, the ship fuel market is mainly stable, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the just demand is mainly, and the transaction is limited. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may remain stable in the near future.

In September 2021, the domestic 1# antimony ingot market continued the trend of the previous month and continued to fluctuate upward. The average price of the domestic market was 70000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 75500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 7.86%.

On September 27, the antimony commodity index was 105.10, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 123.71% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

In September, the antimony ingot market continued to play a leading role. This round of increase is still affected by tight supply and strict environmental protection in the main production areas. In the middle of this month, the environmental protection policies in Hunan, the main production area, were strictly implemented. The ex factory price of smelters was strong, the price mentality was still high, and some manufacturers were still limited to sales. It is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, low-cost transactions are rapid, and the downstream actively purchases low-cost goods. Boosted by the antimony ingot Market, the antimony oxide market has a good sales, the transaction has rebounded significantly, and the market inquiry is positive.

In terms of price, as of the 27th, the domestic market price of 2# antimony ingot was 72500 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot was 75000 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingot was 76000 yuan / ton, up about 10000-10500 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

According to the business society, the antimony ingot market continued the upward trend in September, and there was a certain fear of heights in the downstream, mainly purchasing on demand. There is a certain demand for pre holiday goods preparation near the holiday. With the boost of the current tight supply, it is expected that the price of antimony ingots will still be stable, medium and strong in the future.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (September 24): 17300 yuan / ton

On September 24, the melamine market was mainly stable, flat compared with the previous trading day and up 22.12% compared with August 24. At present, the price of upstream urea is rising, the cost side boosts the market, enterprises mainly execute early orders, the export support is still stable, the domestic trade demand is flat, the downstream procurement is not strong, the follow-up of new orders is general, and the domestic trade demand side is light, which inhibits the upward trend of the market.

It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market may be stable and weak.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (September 22): 10137.5 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, the PVC price continued to rise on September 23, and the main contract 2201 rose strongly, with a daily increase of 5.35%, and the highest price was 0725. It broke through the previous high again, driving the positive follow-up of the spot market. The price adjustment range of the enterprise was about 300-500 yuan / ton, with a large range. After the festival, the price of raw calcium carbide rose rapidly, the cost support was strong, and the favorable factors such as insufficient plant start-up and no pressure on inventory of PVC enterprises jointly supported the further rise of PVC price.

Forecast: the PVC market is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Product Name: n-propanol

Latest price (September 22): 7666 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 22, the domestic n-propanol market was stably sorted and operated. The average ex factory price of n-propanol was 7666 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. Affected by the downstream production restriction, the demand boost of n-propanol during the double festival was not obvious. On the 22nd, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole maintained a stable consolidation operation. The downstream just needed procurement, and the trading atmosphere on the site was general.

Future forecast: during the festival, the transaction of domestic n-propanol market is cautious, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the short-term n-propanol market will mainly operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of boric acid decreased slightly this week. On September 13, the average price of boric acid was 6966 yuan / ton. On September 18, the average price of boric acid was 6700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 266 yuan / ton or – 3.83% compared with last week.

After rising at the beginning of the month, the price of domestic boric acid decreased slightly this week. This week, due to market factors, the price of downstream products was stable and the inventory increased slightly. However, due to the shortage of upstream ore sources, recent production restriction, maintenance and other factors, the domestic boric acid inventory is still out of stock, which has a good support for the price. The price of imported boric acid rebounded this week, and the shipment of traders was more flexible.

Boric acid analysts of business society believe that in the recent period of boric acid price fluctuation, although the price support of downstream products decreased this week, the price is still better supported by the shortage of upstream ore sources and inventory. It is expected that in the short term, the boric acid market will fluctuate at a high level, and there will be no significant decline. After a slight adjustment, the trend will remain strong. It is suggested that buyers just need to purchase and pay more attention to the market information guidance.

The domestic epoxy resin market has declined significantly, which is mainly due to the obvious decline of the raw material end, especially the bad support from the bisphenol a market, and the procurement of downstream products has weakened under the market decline. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was 35500 yuan / ton on September 3, and 34200 yuan / ton on September 10, with a significant decrease of 1300 yuan / ton within the week. So far, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China is 34200-34500 yuan / ton, and the barrel ex factory price of Huangshan solid resin market is 30500 yuan / ton, Shandong solid resin market offers at 30500 yuan / ton.

From the raw material side, bisphenol a decreased significantly. In the second week of September, the bisphenol a market fell broadly. In particular, the bidding price of a petrochemical enterprise in Zhonghua East increased to 27400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton month on month. The market was more bearish, and the offer of the holder followed the downward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the average offer in the East China market was 28160 yuan / ton on September 1, On September 10, the offer of East China market fell to 27440 yuan / ton, with an average decline of 500-600 yuan / ton in major markets, with an overall decline of 2.14% since September

Another important raw material epichlorohydrin, driven by the shutdown of 130000 T / a unit in Haixing, Jiangsu, the market bucked the trend and continued to operate at a high level. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 10, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 15866.67 yuan / ton, up 6.49% compared with Monday’s price. The glycerol method has a strong cost driving effect. Epichlorohydrin manufacturers mainly execute orders, the supply of spot goods is tight, the owner’s mentality of pushing up is strong, the focus of price negotiation moves upward, the downstream procurement mentality is more cautious, and it just needs to follow up.

At present, the downstream is relatively exclusive of high price goods, mainly consuming early orders, and there is an obvious shortage of new orders and insufficient actual orders.

From the perspective of the business community, the main raw materials rise and fall. Despite the decline of bisphenol A, the domestic supply is expected to remain tight. The epichlorohydrin is adjusted at a high level, and the cost side is still under great pressure. Under the cost pressure of downstream factories, the purchasing end is depressed, and the actual quantity of orders is obviously insufficient. The business community expects the epoxy resin market to be sorted and operated in a short range, East China offers liquid epoxy resin at the ex factory price of 34200-34500 yuan / ton, and continues to pay attention to the dynamics of upstream and downstream products.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (September 15): 795.00 yuan / ton

On September 15, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, unchanged from the quotation on September 13, with a year-on-year increase of 102.55%. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream bromine market began to stop falling and rise, and the downstream formic acid market was also rising sharply. The downstream demand was strong, which had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average quotation price is about 800 yuan / ton.