According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 29, 2023, the factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4800 yuan/ton. Compared to March 1, 2023 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5133 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.49%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, from March to now (3.1-3.30), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been weak and in a downward trend. At the beginning of this month, supported by the high cost side, the dimethyl carbonate market slightly increased and operated, but due to the continued general demand of downstream factories and terminals, and insufficient demand boost, although the supply side of dimethyl carbonate decreased slightly, it still could not continue to support the high and stable operation of the dimethyl carbonate market. From mid to late March, domestic dimethyl carbonate began to experience a cold downturn, with weak effective support on the market, The focus of the transaction has been constantly declining. As of March 30, the decline in the dimethyl carbonate market is around 300-500 yuan/ton. As of March 30, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4400-5000 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate trading on the market is general, the transmission of supply and demand is relatively slow, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. The business agency’s dimethyl carbonate data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate is mainly weak in terms of consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

Overview of trend of metal magnesium in March

In March, domestic magnesium ingot prices first fell and then stabilized, with signs of bottoming out and rebounding at the end of the month. The daily average price of magnesium ingots fluctuates between 20000 and 21500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20745.98 yuan/ton during the cycle, and the fluctuation range of commodities is -4.21%. In the early months of this month, due to the continued weakness of downstream demand, magnesium prices continued to decline, even falling below 20000 yuan/ton, hitting a new low in nearly a year and a half. Magnesium plants have little profit or even loss, but they are not willing to continue to reduce prices and shipments. They have begun to stabilize their prices. The quotation has been firm at 20000 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers have chosen not to quote. At the end of the month, magnesium prices showed a trend of bottoming out, rebounding and rising. The cost side of the blue carbon industry limited production and guaranteed prices, and multiple manufacturers reduced production and stopped production, providing sufficient support to the magnesium market.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of February 29, the spot exchange including tax in the magnesium ingot market was 20500 yuan/ton, down about 900 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.21%, and a decrease of 49.59% compared to last year.

Supply and demand

The price of metal magnesium has been severely inverted, and the number of manufacturers that have cut production and stopped production has increased again, boosting confidence in the magnesium market. However, downstream procurement remains cautious, and overall demand for magnesium powder and magnesium alloy is cold. Moreover, the international economic situation is unstable, and overseas orders have decreased. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 65100 tons of various magnesium products from January to February 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 16.00%. Among them, 33600 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 19.23%; Magnesium alloy exports totaled 19200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%; A total of 10200 tons of magnesium powder were exported, a year-on-year increase of 17.07%.

Ferrosilicon fell 4.41% in March

On the 29th, the average market price in Ningxia was 7592.86 yuan/ton, and in March, the ferrosilicon market was operating in a weak state. However, with the introduction of limited production quotations by Lancan, and the increase in production cuts and furnace shutdowns by some ferrosilicon factories, the market’s low sentiment has improved somewhat.

In March, the price of blue carbon weakened first and then stabilized. Upstream ferrosilicon enterprises avoided peak production, while downstream demand was weak. Both supply and demand were weak, and the price of blue carbon was under pressure. However, on the 25th, Shenmu and other orchid industry associations and key enterprises proposed to limit production and maintain prices, and issued a minimum guidance price for orchid: 1350 yuan/ton for medium materials, 1300 yuan/ton for small materials, and 1000 yuan/ton for coke surface. Some enterprises in the market have adjusted the price of orchid, while the implementation of other enterprises remains to be observed. In the short term, the orchid market may operate steadily, forming a bottom support for magnesium ingots.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the overall price of magnesium ingots in March was weak, with both supply and demand parties making tentative suggestions, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. At present, the price of magnesium ingots has increased somewhat, and magnesium factories are actively pricing, but the acceptance of high-priced downstream sources is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, the price of 1 # tin ingot in East China has been rising continuously recently, and the price has basically risen back to 196910 yuan/ton on December 24, basically recovering the decline in March. On March 17th, the average market price was 183910 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the average market price was 196610 yuan/ton, up 6.91% in the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, influenced by macro factors, tin prices have risen for three consecutive months, with a single monthly decline of 11.35% since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the price of tin ingots has increased for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 9.43% as of the 24th.

In the futures market, Lunxi continued to rise this week. In the macro aspect, UBS purchased Credit Suisse this week, which stabilized some market sentiment and boosted the metal market sentiment. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US Treasury Secretary issued a statement saying, “We will take actions to protect depositors when necessary.” Market confidence was restored, and the US dollar index was weak and consolidated. This action reversed the downward trend of US stocks. During the week, the market’s risk aversion sentiment eased, and the metal market was boosted. Overall, the Bank of London rose 3.91% in a single day.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent constraints on tin ore supply have not been limited eased, and processing fees have fallen again. As of the 24th, processing fees in Yunnan were between 13000-14500 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1600 yuan/ton, which also confirms the situation of tight supply at the mining end. However, it will take some time for this tension to transfer to the spot market supply, and the current supply of tin ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, there is still no significant improvement, and market expectations are generally weak. In terms of inventory, currently, tin inventory is generally low, and low inventory also provides some support to the market. Due to the characteristics of low inventory, tin market prices are also relatively vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations, with significant fluctuations. In a comprehensive view, the Business Society believes that the tin market has significantly increased recently. In addition to the positive macro outlook, the market is expected to be strongly supported by tight supply and low inventory in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong trend in the near future. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in tin ingot supply and the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment.

As of March 24th, there were 2410 tons of LME tin in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory has continued to decline since 22 years, dropping from the highest level of 5160 tons to the lowest level of 2380 tons in the above cycle, with a height difference of 2780 tons. Currently, the overall LME tin inventory is relatively low.

The base metal index stood at 1210 points on March 25, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.12% from its cycle high of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 88.47% from its low of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring by the Business News Agency, in the 12th week of 2023 (3.20-3.24), there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis. The top three commodities that rose were tin (4.77%), dysprosium oxide (2.56%), and copper (2.34%). A total of 13 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, with the top three falling products being praseodymium oxide (- 4.31%), metallic praseodymium (- 4.19%), and metallic silicon (- 1.97%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 0.21%.

This week (3.20-24), the butyl acetate market slightly declined, with the trading center moving down by 100 yuan or more compared to the previous week. According to the monitoring of the business news agency, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 1.01%. The cost side is affected by the weakness of acetic acid and the weak balance between supply and demand side.

Market analysis: This week, the quotations of large factories are mainly stable, the operating rate of enterprises is low, and the supply and demand maintain a weak balance. The raw material acetic acid did not improve, and the price remained unchanged this week; The price of n-butanol, another raw material, rose by 1.78% per week. The cost of butyl ester was mixed, and the overall price was mostly suppressed by the negative effects of upstream products. In addition, downstream purchases are often made on demand, and manufacturers often use them as needed, making it difficult to increase the volume of transactions. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry remained low, generally below 40%, and limited supply also supported prices.

Future Forecast: It is expected that the butyl ester market may maintain a weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the start-up status of raw material acetic acid, n-butanol, and butyl acetate manufacturers. Currently, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price of pure benzene was 7203-7350 yuan/ton (average price: 7276 yuan/ton), while on Thursday (March 16), the price of pure benzene was 7053-7300 yuan/ton (average price: 7176 yuan/ton), down 1.69% from last week and 12.48% from the same period last year.

2、 Analytical Review

Yesterday, prices in East China fell sharply, and news from the macro market exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future, with cargo holders actively shipping. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7300 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton).

Crude oil has stopped falling and stabilized, and there is still support for the market’s long-term supply and demand. It is expected that prices will stabilize and consolidate in the morning, and attention will be paid to the downward range of main refineries.

Downstream

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Pure benzene market: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated and fell, with insufficient support for the market price of styrene. The offer for pure benzene moved downward, with limited transaction volume. Shandong Refinery is not willing to hold goods, actively adjusting prices to promote shipment, and overall market prices have moved downward. In February, due to centralized maintenance in the downstream, the market supply was relatively abundant, and prices were expected to be weak and volatile.

Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed stabilizing the market, adding to the weakening of the US dollar and a rebound in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose by $0.74/barrel or 1.09% to $68.35/barrel; ICE oil futures 05 contract rose $74.70/barrel, or 1.37%, by $1.01/barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures 2305 fell 27.5 yuan to 502.8 yuan per barrel, while it rose 1.6 yuan to 504.4 yuan per barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, prices in East China fell sharply, and the news in the macro market exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future. Holders actively shipped. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has been stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 9714.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.30%.

Supply side: The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is low and stable, with the mainstream price of 9500-10000 yuan/ton negotiated by various regions of the country. Recently, some units are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order situation is poor. Affected by this, the price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Raw material side: The market price trend of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable, with the average domestic fluorite price of 2950 yuan/ton as of the 17th, and the price trend is stable this week. Recently, the operating rate at the domestic supply side has increased, with some fluorite enterprises starting operations, and the supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. Raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. The price trend of fluorite on the site is temporarily stable, and hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, with little market volatility.

The price trend of raw material sulfuric acid market has increased, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price of 273.33 yuan/ton as of the 17th, and the price rose 1.86% this week, leading to a higher price trend this week. Recently, domestic sulfuric acid plants have been operating stably, with normal supply, and downstream procurement enthusiasm for sulfuric acid has increased. Positive factors have supported the upward trend of sulfuric acid prices, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to stabilize.

Demand side: The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has risen slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the factory price, leading to a slight recovery in the domestic refrigerant R22 price. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, inventory is within a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a has increased slightly. However, currently, demand based procurement is the main trend. Downstream enterprises are not starting high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. Due to the impact of light refrigerant delivery, the market for downstream R134a has slightly increased. Recently, procurement in the downstream refrigerant industry is not active, with a operating rate of less than 30%. For upstream raw materials, procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable.

Future Forecast: In the short term, the market trend of raw material fluorite is stable, and the downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish. However, the refrigerant market has risen slightly, affected by both short and long factors. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market price will remain low and temporarily stable in the short term.

This week (3.13~3.20), the nitrile rubber market declined slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of nitrile rubber was 16525 yuan/ton, down 3.64% from 17150 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of butadiene as a raw material fell, while the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated within a narrow range. The factory price of nitrile rubber for enterprises was temporarily stable, but the downstream demand side was weak, with weak market transactions, and the price of nitrile rubber decreased slightly.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw material butadiene fell, while the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber weakened slightly. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of butadiene was 8691 yuan/ton, down 5.18% from 9166 yuan/ton last Monday; As of March 20th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10375 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from 10400 yuan/ton on Monday.

The supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable this week.

Since March, inquiries in the downstream rubber products industry such as rubber pipes and auto parts have been dominated by small orders, with a small amount of transactions in the market.

Future Forecast: Business Agency nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable, but the price of raw material butadiene is falling, while the cost of nitrile rubber is declining; Currently, the improvement in downstream construction is not obvious, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate in a weak manner in the short term.

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen due to shocks. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8425.6700 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. The price fell 8.54% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has continued to decline. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price fluctuation of styrene is mainly small, and the price continues to decline this week. Styrene maintenance devices have been restarted in succession, inventories have risen, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and become unstable, pure benzene market has not fluctuated much, cost support is poor, and styrene spot demand is poor, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price of pure benzene was 7203-7350 yuan/ton (average price: 7276 yuan/ton), while on Thursday (March 16), the price of pure benzene was 7053-7300 yuan/ton (average price: 7176 yuan/ton), down 1.69% from last week and 12.48% from the same period last year. The news in the macro market has exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future, and cargo holders have actively shipped. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

Downstream, the three downstream markets of styrene fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9333 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of PS was 9283 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.51%, down 12.97% compared to the same period last year. The PS market price has steadily declined, the cost center has weakened, support has weakened, and the digestion speed is moderate. The PS price has slightly weakened, some goods are tight, and prices are firm. The overall market transaction is average. The total production of domestic PS in March is expected to reach 370000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.58%.

This week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials is 9600 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The supply of goods on the site is still relatively loose, and the downstream production consumption inventory is dominated. The reference market price of EPS ordinary materials in South China is around 9500-9600 yuan/ton (including tax).

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been stable. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, the average price on March 20th was 11825.00 yuan/ton. Previously, the ABS industry had been operating at a high load for more than a month. Due to supply side pressure and fierce competition for new materials, petrochemical plants began to reduce their load independently. Last week, the industry load decreased by 6% compared to the beginning of the month, but the operating rate of 90% is still high. Currently, the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant, and domestic inventory has accumulated. The factory still has a plan to reduce the burden in the future, and the news has laid a foundation for some spot goods.

In the near future, crude oil is expected to bottom out and rebound, with good support for styrene. Port inventory has been slightly destocked, and short-term volatility in the styrene market is expected to prevail.

The domestic cobalt price fluctuated and fell this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, the cobalt price was 304700 yuan/ton, down 2.21% from 311600 yuan/ton on March 10. Cobalt market demand is weak, and domestic cobalt prices have fallen in a volatile manner.

Global smartphone shipments expected to decline

According to the quarterly tracking report of International Data Corporation (IDC) mobile phones, it is still difficult to be optimistic about the smartphone market in 2023. In 2023, the shipment volume of the global smartphone market will be less than 1.2 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; The shipment volume in the Chinese market is expected to be only 283 million units, down 1.1% year-on-year. Inflation and uncertainty in the global economy have weakened the recovery in consumer demand. The global and Chinese smartphone markets have rebounded, but they still face serious threats. The recovery in mobile phone market consumption is less than expected, and the expected decline in mobile phone shipments in 23 years is expected, while the expected decline in cobalt market demand.

Sales of wearable devices plummeted

According to the latest report by market research agency Canalys, the global wearable bracelet market shipped 50 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. Due to factors such as Christmas, the fourth quarter is usually the peak season. As a “new upstart” in consumption, smart wearable devices are the “second battleground” in the mobile phone market. Smart watches have been in a steady growth state, but in the fourth quarter of the traditional peak season of 22 years, there has been an abnormal two-digit decline. Sales of smart watches of various major brands have experienced significant declines in varying degrees in the fourth quarter, with weak consumption in the downstream of the cobalt market and increased downward pressure on cobalt prices.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business News, believes that mobile phone sales have fallen short of expectations, wearable device sales have plummeted, cobalt market demand is weak, and cobalt prices have fallen in a volatile manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. The market price of aniline was 12100 yuan/ton on March 6 and 12200 yuan/ton on March 10, up 0.82% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Pure benzene market: the increase in the main listing boosted market confidence, and the price stopped falling and rebounded, but the downstream resisted high-priced raw materials, and the trading volume was low; Shandong Refinery also resisted high-price pure benzene, and the number of transactions in the day decreased compared with yesterday. Overnight crude oil and styrene prices fell, but the main unit price of pure benzene supported the market. It is expected that the pure benzene in East China will rebound slightly today. On Thursday (March 9), the price of pure benzene was 7275 yuan/ton, up 1.74% from last week and down 18.07% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the domestic nitric acid price fell slightly this week. The price was 2483 yuan/ton on March 6 and 2467 yuan/ton on March 9, which was 4.73% lower than last week and 12.04% higher than the same period last year.

Due to the tight spot supply of aniline in the northern region, the market was bullish, and the price rose continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for aniline is difficult to be significantly improved. With the favorable supply turning weak, aniline stabilizes and the wait-and-see increases.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

At present, the factors affecting the price of aniline still lie in the supply and demand side. At present, the market is waiting for the implementation of Jinling maintenance plan, and it is expected that there will be a small increase in domestic aniline in the next cycle.