1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8833.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 8700 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 1.51% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of isopropanol fell in the early stage of this week. With the rise of downstream raw materials, the price of isopropanol rebounded in the later stage. Internationally, on January 26, isopropanol in the United States closed up, while the European isopropanol market closed down. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu Province is about 8500-8600 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 8200 yuan / ton.

As for raw material acetone, Sinopec North China acetone price plan was raised on January 29, which is still under approval. In the morning, Lihua yiweiyuan and Yangzhou Shiyou raised their offer one after another, executing 8000 yuan and 8200 yuan / ton respectively. Under the tight spot, the offer of the goods holder is firm, but the terminal purchase is general, the mood of downstream replenishment is not high, and the transaction of new orders is limited.

As for raw material propylene, the overall price of propylene market stabilized after falling this week. The market turnover is between 6900-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still 6900-7000 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturers’ inventory pressure is too high, the shipment situation is cold, and the downstream market is mainly on the lookout. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene market will continue to decline slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are relatively stable. Raw material acetone rose, propylene prices fell and stabilized, which had a certain supporting effect on isopropanol. The lower reaches of the main wait-and-see, buy carefully. As the Spring Festival approaches, it is expected that there will be little room for isopropanol fluctuation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, in January, the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province was stacked with bad news, and the price of trichloromethane fell sharply. As of January 28, the average price in Shandong Province was about 2500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 31.51% within the month.

At present, the downstream market of trichloromethane is in the off-season as a whole, and the demand for trichloromethane is poor. With the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the starting of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipment situation of enterprises is flat. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics transportation is limited to a certain extent, and the enterprises bid for shipment in order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future. At present, the price of Shandong is about 2440-2500 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3700 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the domestic methanol market is mainly stable and consolidated. Affected by the higher freight rate and the increased cost of traders, the domestic methanol spot market is relatively strong, while the downstream market has entered the holidays one after another, and the demand side support is limited. At present, about 2335 yuan / ton is available in Shandong Province. The liquid chlorine market is in stable operation, the transportation capacity of the industry is limited, and the shipment of enterprises is slowing down. In addition, the epidemic situation in some regions rebounds, and the market is booming The market demand is flat. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 400-500 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream refrigerants, the price of raw materials is tight, and the refrigerant manufacturers reduce the load, which is good for supporting the rise of refrigerant prices. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service; solvent, medicine, pesticide and other industries start smoothly, and support for chloroform is general.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the completion rate of the downstream market of chloroform market is relatively high, the demand for chloroform is weak, and the price of raw materials in the upstream is declining, which leads to a sharp drop in the price of chloroform. It is expected that the market of chloroform will be weak in a short period of time.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the overall price of lithium carbonate in East China rose rapidly in January 2021, and the price increase rate increased significantly until the end of the month. As of January 27, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 67800 yuan / ton, which was 35.6% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 50000 yuan / ton on January 1). On January 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 71800 yuan / ton, up 31.5% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (54600 yuan / ton in East China on January 1). As of the 27th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 65000-71000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 68000-76000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, after the new year’s Day holiday this month, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the market as a whole was bullish. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream purchasing intention is strengthened, and the demand for replenishment continues. At present, the transaction price in the market varies from high to low, and the purchase price gap of various types of material factories is relatively large. By the end of the month, lithium carbonate enterprises were basically in short supply and out of stock, and their inventory was less than 1 million tons.

The rising price of lithium carbonate is partly affected by the continuous increase of the downstream market. The increasing demand for lithium carbonate in the lithium battery industry also leads to the tight supply structure, which may continue. In addition, in the first quarter, large factories began to repair and under the guidance of bullish sentiment, some downstream enterprises also appeared the phenomenon of excessive procurement. Under the influence of logistics and transportation outage, the short-term price of lithium carbonate still has room to rise.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream has recovered and risen. The low-cost products in the market have been basically cleared. The supply and demand structure has gradually improved. The superimposed ore price has risen. The cost support and the price of lithium carbonate have risen, driving the price of lithium hydroxide to rise. As for the lithium iron phosphate power market, due to the rising price of lithium carbonate and higher downstream demand, most lithium iron enterprises are facing tight shipment. The downstream battery enterprises have low acceptance of the increase, the price of iron lithium enterprises is relatively strong, and the zero order transaction in the market is not high.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business club, at present, the inventory of lithium carbonate market is relatively low, and some enterprises are in the state of no goods pre-sale. With the increase of downstream operation rate after the year, the market demand will continue to increase, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week is 2175.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, January 22 potassium chloride commodity index was 69.05.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2300 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was mainly small fluctuation. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, affected by the poor demand of the downstream market, chloroform in Shandong continued to fall. As of January 25, the average price in Shandong was about 3300 yuan / ton, down 2.94% in the week and 9.59% compared with the beginning of the month.

Recently, affected by the poor demand of downstream market, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to fall, and the intra industry trading was light. Although the Spring Festival holiday was approaching, the intention of downstream goods preparation was flat, and the inventory of chloroform production enterprises had accumulated to a certain extent, so they were forced to make profits for shipment. At present, the price of Shandong is about 2640-2720 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3700 yuan / ton.

The raw material methanol market is in a downward shock. The mainland’s olefin procurement in Northwest China is shrinking and the demand in Hebei and Shandong is weak. Some road sections are blocked, which affects the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi. However, the impact degree is uncertain, which is about 2335 yuan / ton at present. The liquid chlorine market is stable, the transportation capacity of the industry is limited, and the shipment of enterprises is slowing down The epidemic situation rebounded in some areas and the market demand was flat. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 500-600 yuan / ton.

The market trend of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, but the automobile industry continued to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The supply of goods on the floor is sufficient, and the market will be affected by new production capacity in the future. The competition is fierce. The supply side is gradually bad, and the price is slightly higher, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The solvent, pharmaceutical and pesticide industries start flat, and the support for chloroform is general.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that there are many negative factors in the trichloromethane market at present, it will take time for the demand side to return to normal, the situation of oversupply in the industry is obvious, and it is expected that the price of trichloromethane will be weak and stable in a short time.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market basically ended the short-term correction last week, and the prices in Hebei and Shandong rose at the beginning of the week. According to the monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation in Shandong was 3200-3300 yuan / ton, with an increase of about 100 yuan / ton, and a decrease of 0.75% according to the monitoring of the business community.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong generally rebounded. Due to the low inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a price gap with other regions in China, especially the northeast region. At the same time, it also undertook some external orders, so the price appeared compensation factors. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. In the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the off-season is slightly insufficient, which is also the main reason why the price of liquid ammonia has not increased significantly.

Other areas rose in varying degrees, while Hebei followed the price trend of Shandong. The price of large factories in Zhouzhong increased by 100 yuan / ton. According to the response of a large factory, the liquid ammonia in this area was basically unblocked, and was not affected by the epidemic situation. The delivery rhythm of manufacturers did not decrease. However, due to the fact that the two large factories overhauled in Northeast China have been in operation, the export volume in Northeast China has declined and the price has increased Grid support fell, so the price of Hebei also rose limited. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is in the range of 3200-3350 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business community believes that before the festival, the possibility of liquid ammonia Market to continue to push up is small, mainly in a narrow range. On the one hand, affected by the normal operating rate of manufacturers, there are not many maintenance manufacturers, and the inventory of large factories is in a state of accumulation. On the other hand, the current downstream off-season, the purchase of the negative effect of shrinking fermentation. It is expected that there will be a risk of high level drop in liquid ammonia in the near future.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose sharply. The price of PR nd rare earth continued to rise. The price of TB rare earth rose to a 10-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market rose step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the BPI of commodity price index on January 17 was 895, which was the same as yesterday, Compared with the highest point of 1019 points in the cycle (2012-04-10), it decreased by 12.17%, and increased by 35.61% compared with the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the price of domestic rare earth rose a lot in January. Recently, the rare earth market has changed frequently and the market price has been rising. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium continued to rise. As of January 18, the domestic price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth was 442500 yuan / ton, up 7.93% in January; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 552500 yuan / ton, up 8.33% in half a month; the price of neodymium oxide was 552500 yuan / ton/ The price of neodymium was 667500 yuan / ton, up 7.23% in half a month; the price of praseodymium oxide was 387500 yuan / ton, up 9.93% in January; the price of praseodymium was 615000 yuan / ton, up 6.96% in January. The domestic market price of light rare earth rose sharply.

Recently, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have increased, and the terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high trend of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. At present, the application of rare earth NdFeB permanent magnet materials in the automotive field mainly includes new energy drive motor and traditional automotive parts micro motor. In terms of sales volume, new energy vehicles hit a new high. On January 13, the data released by China Automobile Association showed that China’s automobile sales volume in 2020 will reach 25.311 million. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the price of terbium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market has reached a 10-year high, and the price of its own series continues to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of Dy 2O 3 rose in January, up 7.47% in half a month, to 2.085 million yuan / ton as of the 18th; the price of Dy ferroalloy rose 7.29% to 2.06 million yuan / ton, up 7.29% in January; the domestic price of TB 2O 3 rose sharply, to 8.65 million yuan / ton on the 18th, and to 10.95 million yuan / ton of metal, up to a new level in 10 years . Domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and prices of medium and heavy rare earths. In addition, Myanmar’s customs closure still has a tight impact on domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths. In addition, the recent downstream demand is rising, and the price of heavy rare earth market is rising The market supply of terbium series is tight, the supply and demand are unbalanced, and the market price of terbium series continues to rise.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the rare earth industry management and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the recovery of advanced manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth of demand. The domestic demand for rare earth remains at a high level. The domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Analysts of business society expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

Preparation before the festival — aniline price rebounds

Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises prepared goods and released their inventory rapidly. The price rebounded from 6400 yuan / ton in mid January to 6500 yuan / ton.

Affected by the epidemic, a large number of aniline factories shut down to reduce the burden

After the festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the time for domestic chemical enterprises to return to work has been extended, the time limit for aniline downstream to return to work is unknown, and the market demand is weak. In addition, due to the limitation of logistics and transportation, the inventory of aniline enterprises is accumulated, and a large number of aniline factories run or stop to control the inventory. In addition, the export volume of aniline increased, and the price rose continuously to 6900 yuan / ton in early March.

“Bad” and “good”

Cost side: affected by the epidemic, crude oil plummeted, and pure benzene fell by more than 55% from March to early April. Cost “waist fold”, aniline support significantly weakened. Supply and demand side: Although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, downstream enterprises have resumed work and production, but the overall demand is still limited, and aniline enterprises are under great pressure to ship. With the outbreak of the epidemic in foreign countries, the demand for foreign chemical products has softened rapidly, some export orders for aniline have been cancelled, and the surplus aniline has been transferred to China, resulting in increased market supply pressure. Under the pressure of multiple short interest rates, the price of aniline continued to decline until August. In August, the aniline Market was mainly stable and in the loss stage.

The influence of cost is weakened, and the influence of fundamentals is strengthened

In March, the price of pure benzene decreased continuously, the price of aniline followed the decline of raw materials in the first half of the month, and began to stabilize in the second half of the month, reflecting a strong resilience. In July, the price of raw material pure benzene rebounded, with an increase of more than 6%, but the overall increase of aniline was weak, and the loss expanded. Aniline prices rose more than 50% from September to October, but pure benzene market was weak and volatile. The main reason is that the impact of cost on the price of aniline is weakened, and the downstream demand is the main reason affecting the price of aniline in 2020. Downstream demand and aniline factory inventory directly affect the price of aniline.

Hot market, tight spot supply

Demand side: the downstream demand of “jinjiuyinshi” recovered well, among which the MDI market was hot, supporting the price of aniline to rise. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased, the market transaction atmosphere is strong, the price of aniline is separated from the raw material pure benzene, and the market price is rising all over the world. On the supply side: Tianji and Lianheng signed shipping contracts, which reduced the number of spot goods; Nanhua and Wanhua main supply contracts, but there were few bulk goods; the overall inventory of aniline enterprises was not high, coupled with the parking and maintenance of individual enterprises, the overall market supply was tight. Stimulated by multiple positive factors, the market of aniline overturned. From September to October, aniline rose by more than 50% to a high of 6666.67 yuan / ton.

Environmental inspection + Weather Factors — aniline ushers in the high point of the year

11、 February is the traditional off-season of aniline, but in 2020, the off-season will not be weak, and aniline will increase by more than 18% in two months. Some aniline enterprises continue to carry out contract orders, factory inventory is generally not high, and spot delivery is limited. With the arrival of rain and snow in the north, transportation is limited, which helps to climb the peak again. Affected by environmental protection inspection, the load of aniline plants in Jinling and Huatai in Shandong Province has been reduced all the way. In addition, the cost has been warmer, and the price of aniline has risen to the highest point of the whole year – 7900 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3590.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3483.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 106.67 yuan / ton, down 2.97%, up 25.60% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 91.27 on January 8.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3350 yuan / ton, down 320 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3400 yuan / ton, stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3700 yuan / ton, stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small material is 1150 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell this week. PVC quotation fell by 2.67% from 7295.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. It was 4.03% higher than that of the same period last year. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, the downstream of calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is general, overall, this week’s PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has fallen sharply recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, the output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds demand. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in mid January.

On January 8, the styrene market rose slightly. Crude oil rose sharply, driving the price of pure benzene higher, international ethylene rose, driving the spot offer strong, styrene cost support surface is strong, night styrene weak callback, reducing position downward. After entering January, the inventory of northern styrene enterprises dropped, the impact on East China arbitrage weakened, the price of production enterprises rose again, and the cost support and some downstream replenishment transactions supported the high opening of the market. And the terminal inventory continued to rise, the emergence of class library, on-site supply increased. The overall downstream production and sales declined, but some of the downstream began to prepare for the holiday in succession. The market transactions were improved, and the price rise of production enterprises followed up. Today, the price of styrene in East China was raised to around 6500-6600 yuan / ton. The price is around 6300 yuan / ton in Northeast China and 6550-6600 yuan / ton in South China. In the case of strong oil price, US dollar support is obvious, and short-term oil price is strong. It is expected that styrene will still have room to rise in the short term.