On May 29, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of 30 days, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen. As of 30 days, the market price is 1726.67 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly. As of 30 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The upward trend of raw material prices in the upstream has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on May 27 was 100766.67 yuan/ton, which was 3.17% higher than the previous trading day of 97666.67 yuan/ton, 12.58% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.1% lower than the previous trading day. Spot nickel rose by about 3,200 yuan/ton today. The nighttime LME three-month nickel rallied sharply, closing in the early morning of May 25 at $12,380 per ton, or 4.12 per cent. Starting at 2:30 p.m. this afternoon, the non-ferrous inner and outer plates flushed red collectively. At one time, Shanghai nickel surged from 97,000 yuan per ton to 103,000 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 3%.

Indonesian elections sparked riots fearing an impact on nickel supply

The recent Indonesian coup coincided with the holidays in various mines during Ramadan (mid-May-mid-June), and the overall output of Indonesian nickel ore was reduced compared with April. Protests triggered by recent election results in Indonesia have killed at least six people, injured 200 others and arrested more than 250 people. The market generally believes that the riots in Indonesia are the main reason for the sharp rise in nickel prices.

As the largest supplier of nickel ore in China, Indonesia is highly dependent on imports of nickel ore and ferronickel from Indonesia. The data show that the proportion of imports of nickel ore and ferronickel from Indonesia in the first quarter of this year is more than 60%. The extreme actions of the anti-forces in Indonesia may affect the exploitation of nickel ore or lead to a further ban on the export of nickel ore in Indonesia in the future. In addition, the exaggeration of media news and the association of historical events with more serious consequences may make it difficult for Chinese and Chinese enterprises to invest in Indonesia in the future. As the world’s largest nickel mining area, as well as an important stainless steel and ferronickel producing area, Indonesia’s major political events are bound to have a long-term impact on the nickel market.

Reducing Vehicle Purchase Tax and Benefiting New Energy Vehicles

On the afternoon of the 24th, the Ministry of Finance issued the Announcement of Specific Policies on Vehicle Purchase Tax, which was calculated according to the actual transaction price, and was aimed at stimulating domestic automobile consumption, including new energy vehicles. Therefore, the demand for nickel from ternary batteries was improved and the price of nickel was boosted.

Nickel fundamentals are still weak

Fundamentals have not heard good news yet. New production capacity of ferronickel at home and abroad exceeds expectations. Supply will turn from tightening to a small excess situation. With the resumption of production capacity of ferronickel maintenance in June and the release of new production capacity, the degree of excess supply will be aggravated. At that time, production profits of high ferronickel will continue to decline. At the same time, the downstream nickel stainless steel market continues to be weak. Nearly the end of the month, some stainless steel factories on the market continue to arrive, stainless steel continues to basement, while the downstream demand has not improved, shipment by shippers is more difficult, the firm price attitude of stainless steel factories has been relaxed in the early stage, and the spot market turnover is still flat.

It is difficult to reverse the trend of nickel without significant terminal warming up

The sharp rise in nickel prices is caused by the political events triggered by the Indonesian riots, the reduction of vehicle purchase tax and the improvement of nickel prices. On the other hand, the weakening of the US dollar has boosted metal prices. But the riot was mainly in the capital Jakarta, not a nationwide campaign. The major producers of nickel ore, ferronickel and stainless steel were less affected by the riot and were basically in normal production. They returned to work on the 5th day and the situation is controllable. And the dollar may strengthen again. New energy vehicles are only a small part of nickel price demand. Fundamental factors will continue to be the driving force of nickel price trend. The short-term sudden rise in nickel prices is difficult to sustain. Only the improvement of downstream demand can support the real bottom rebound of nickel prices. However, stainless steel has accumulated counter-seasonally. At present, there is no sign of improvement in demand. Non-ferrous analysts of business associations believe that nickel prices will operate weakly in the short term.

First, the price trend

According to business figures, the overall price of domestic xylene fell this week, with an average of 5576 yuan/ton of business at the beginning of the week, and the average price of an enterprise on weekends was a weekly low price, 5550 yuan/ton, and a weekly amplitude of 0.47%.

Ii. Analysis and review 1. Crude oil: Increased concerns about global trade risks, a blow to capital markets, and the highest level of U.S. crude oil inventories since July 2017 offset the impact of OPEC production cuts and tensions in the Middle East, with U.S. stocks plummeting, international oil prices plunging and Brent 68.4-73.2 dollars/barrels.

It is expected that in the short term the crude oil market will still be the main shock, there is some upward possibility. 2, FOB South Korea xylene Reference price affected by crude oil, this weekend began to cut, Sinopec’s branch xylene listed prices reduced.

In terms of inventory, port inventories have been digested this week, with around 83,000 tonnes in eastern China.

3, following last week’s xylene market recovery, price rebound, this week xylene market weak, although there is a certain positive side support, but by the raw materials and demand side of the impact, the price of a decline.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society Chemical Branch Xylene analysts believe that: next week, crude oil, focus on the United States crude oil 60 dollars/barrel pass can hold up, positive and negative factors affect the market at the same time, oil price mainstream fluctuation range or between 60-62 dollars/barrel. Second quarter at home and abroad more centralized maintenance, xylene estimated supply will be reduced, market expectations optimistic, next week xylene market or can stop falling and rise.

May 23, the mainstream price of ethylene oxide 7300 yuan/ton, South China 7500 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton in central.

Ethylene price is higher, but downstream ethylene glycol and polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market supply and demand situation has not been significantly improved, the overall trading situation is light, ethylene oxide manufacturers loss pressure increased.

Liaoning is about to enter the maintenance period, the Tohoku Northeast EO Price. Market wait-and-see atmosphere is rich, short-term stability mainly.

Product Name: Acetone

Market Price (East China May 22): 3100 Yuan/ton

Analysis point: Domestic acetone market offer slightly improved, but the actual deal has not been significantly improved. Into late May, the domestic contract has no shipping pressure, the shipper’s low price shipping intention is not strong, downstream terminal factory just need to follow up, the real plate transaction volume small single to carry out, as of the current East China market mainstream negotiation range in 3100-3150 yuan/ton, Yanshan peripheral market mainstream negotiation price in 3050-3100 yuan/ton, South China market negotiation range in 3150-3200 yuan/ton, high-end mostly for the offer. The business community expects the acetone market to consolidate the transition. The East China market is expected to negotiate the price in the vicinity of 3050 yuan/ton, Yanshan peripheral market mainstream negotiation price in 3050-3100 yuan/ton.

First, the price trend Last week, the overall price of toluene in China was in a small range of concussion finishing, according to business’s bulk list data.

Early Zhou Enterprise average price is weekly high price, 5250 yuan/ton, midweek enterprise average price is weekly low price, 5213 yuan/ton, weekly amplitude of about 0.7%.

Ii. Analysis and review 1, crude oil: Sino-US trade talks bearish, the market waiting for OPEC and the alliance to cut production this weekend to discuss the relaxation of production cuts, coupled with a slight easing of tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices fell slightly in Friday.

The crude oil market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. 2, FOB South Korea toluene Reference price is also affected by crude oil, price shock mainly. Sinopec’s branch, some areas of toluene listed prices reduced.

Port inventory dropped slightly, east China in about 60,000 tons. 3, from the beginning of the Thursday, toluene market has recovered, the price rebound. But the current market news is complex, some operators still hold the wait-and-see sentiment, continue to wait for the fundamentals of more information guidance, short-term toluene prices still maintain a volatile trend.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 10066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 10.60% in the week, which was 25.00% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market continued to fall this week, pure benzene market was consolidated horizontally, cost support was relatively stable. Shandong Haili Power Plant began to be officially exported this week, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone increased. In the past week, Sinopec’s caprolactam has been listed for two consecutive downgrades. The market price of caprolactam has fallen sharply, the market mentality is pessimistic, the chemical fiber plant has more overhauls, and Shenyuan has not yet restarted. The overall demand for cyclohexanone in the chemical fiber market has not increased, the contradiction between supply and demand has gradually become prominent, the purchasing mood of the chemical fiber and solvent market is not good, the shipments of manufacturers and traders have been blocked many times. Reduce the ex-factory price, traders follow the market, the market trading atmosphere is colder.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price consolidation of pure benzene in East China, East China mainstream talks in 4450-4550 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream talks in 4200-4350 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, due to trade tensions, the East China market was more cautious and spot purchases fell to 4400 yuan/ton. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic liquid spot market of caprolactam fell sharply. Demand continues to be short, downstream PA6 chip market has entered a downward trend since April. Inventory of PA6 aggregation plant continues to be high, and aggregation link is losing money. Therefore, the start-up load of PA6 aggregation plant has fallen a lot. In May, terminal demand continued to slump, PA6 polymerization began to decline, especially in some factories where raw materials were extracted from the outside world, the demand for caprolactam decreased to less than 50%. In addition, this week some caprolactam factories restarted discharging, caprolactam supply increased, manufacturers increased inventory pressure, prices fell sharply.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term cyclohexanone plant except Jiangsu Haili, parking overhaul has basically been normal driving, if not unintentionally, the spot export volume may remain relatively stable. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, Nanjing Dongfang has no plan to restart in the short term. The Yongrong cyclohexanone plant starts normally and basically meets the demand for caprolactam. In the short term, Shenyuan has no purchase plan for cyclohexanone. Next week, the demand is basically stable. Overall, cyclohexanone may still be in a supply-over-demand pattern. Cyclohexanone analysts expect the cyclohexanone market to continue to weaken next week.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the overall price of xylene in China has fallen recently.

II. Analytical Review

1. Crude oil: Saudi oil pipeline was attacked, OPEC cut production significantly in April. Yesterday, international oil prices rebounded, and the global stock market rose, which also boosted the atmosphere of the oil market;

2. Outside: Yesterday (as of 16:00 Beijing time on May 14), the reference price of isomeric mixed xylene in the Korean market was about 699 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day.

3. Comment: At present, the market information is complex, the trading atmosphere is wait-and-see, the negotiations are not good, and the supply and demand are at a standstill stage. Although the supply side of Shandong market has some favorable support, the demand side has not improved. Xylene market prices continue to decline, and it is expected that it will be difficult to break through in the short term.

On May 12, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 98.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.15% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 83.04% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend was temporarily stable on the 13th. Up to now, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10 820 yuan/ton, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect the current shortage of hydrofluoric acid spot supply, and the recent market situation is general. Due to the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers limit production and guarantee prices, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is small. Rise. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand was not actually good, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor condition of goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is shaking.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may remain volatile.

First, the price data:

According to the business community’s large list of monitoring data, this week, the domestic bromine market stable operation, the industry as a whole started normal, the average price of bromine in the week remained at about 35000 yuan/ton, up 28.35% from the same period last year.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Products: This week, the domestic bromine market started high, spot supply abundant, enterprise shipping smooth, downstream market demand is stable, the industry’s overall supply and demand balance. In part of the start of enterprises, Rudong Yue Fine chemical Nissan about 5 tons, Shandong Sea Nissan 15 tons or so, Shandong Hai Wang chemical Nissan 20 tons or so, Tianjin haijing Nissan 15 tons or so.

At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises in 35000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price to the enterprise negotiations prevail. Industrial chain: This week, the bromine upstream industry mixed up: sulfur market in the middle of a small decline of 0.66%, the current price of 1010 yuan/ton, caustic soda market in the week slightly higher 1.4%, the current offer of 723 yuan/ton, soda Market Week stable operation, the current price of 1983 yuan/ton around The price of sulfuric acid fell sharply by 21.48% in the week, and is currently quoted at around 265 yuan/ton.

At present, bromine downstream flame retardant industry just need to stabilize, the bromine price support is stable, some pharmaceutical agricultural intermediates and other industries Chemical Park closed, the bromine market has a certain negative impact.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society bromine industry analysts believe that the current domestic bromine market enterprises generally normal production, shipping smooth, downstream user demand is stable, the market presents a balance between supply and demand, by environmental security and other factors, the market or will appear oversupply situation, it is expected that the future period of bromine prices will be stable operation.