Price trend

In March, the domestic POM market remained stable with some gains, and spot prices saw a narrow increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13525 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 0.19% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In March, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent formaldehyde market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations. The price of raw material methanol stabilized first and then increased, and cost support gradually warmed up. The demand and consumption of downstream panel factories are lagging behind, and formaldehyde manufacturers are under great pressure to ship. The market is limited in terms of price increase, and the support for POM is average.

In terms of supply:

In March, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises generally increased at a high level, and the overall load rate increased from 83% at the beginning of the month to around 94% at the end of the month. However, the inventory position of most enterprises is rising slowly, and the accumulation of inventory is rare. Overall, the increase in supply pressure is limited, and the support from the supply side for POM spot is still acceptable.

In terms of demand:

The stocking situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises this month is average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods. In addition, the high price stalemate of POM in the latter half of the year has caused some resistance among buyers. Overall, the demand side entry is lagging behind, and there are some hidden drop in trading operations by traders at the end of the month, which has loosened the support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market trend in March was volatile. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is high, the inventory position of enterprises is not high, the supply of goods is tight, and the pressure on the supply side is not urgent yet. The pricing operation of manufacturers tends to be biased towards high prices. However, downstream enterprises are limited in purchasing due to high load and POM prices, resulting in delayed stock preparation follow-up. It is expected that the POM market in the future may be dragged by the demand side and the price center may loosen.

The domestic acetone market fluctuated slightly in March, with limited purchasing power from major terminals. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the national acetone market was trading at 7315 yuan/ton on March 1st and 7338 yuan/ton on March 26th, with a fluctuation range of 0.31%.

In the first half of the month, the acetone market underwent a weak adjustment, with little room for market volatility. At the beginning of the month, there was sufficient supply of imported goods, and port inventories increased rapidly. However, the listed prices of factories remained stable, and the mentality of traders was still supported. Downstream demand was mainly in demand, while procurement was flat. In the context of weak supply and demand, market volatility was relatively small. In the first half of the month, the fluctuation space of major mainstream markets was mostly between 20-50 yuan/ton.

In the second half of the month, the acetone market saw mixed ups and downs, with insufficient replenishment of port inventory and tight supply expectations in the East China region. Traders had a positive attitude, and major mainstream markets quickly pushed up their prices. However, downstream follow-up was limited, and there was a clear resistance to high prices. After the 20th, as the supply side loosened again, the market fell by 80-100 yuan/ton. Although the amplitude was not significant, it was the largest fluctuation in the month, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range by the end of the month.

From a supply perspective, at the beginning of the month, with the increase in port inventory, the supply in East China was sufficient, while petrochemical companies maintained stable quotations and listed prices, resulting in relatively stable market quotations. But at the beginning of the month, the 650000 ton/year phenol ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I resumed operation, and the operating rate of social enterprises remained at 70-80%. Manufacturers shipped according to plan, and there were many negative factors on the supply side.

From a cost perspective, the domestic pure benzene market did not fluctuate much in March. In the first half of the month, it first suppressed and then rose, while in the second half, the market remained basically stable. On March 1st, the pure benzene market was quoted at 8463 yuan/ton, and on March 26th, it was quoted at 8433 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous period, pure benzene is still in a high range. Due to the strong support for the downstream acetone market from a cost perspective, phenolic ketone enterprises are still in a loss making state.

From a downstream perspective, after stabilizing in March, the domestic MIBK market remained strong and upward. On March 1st, the market reported 13933 yuan/ton, while on March 26th, the market reported 15200 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.09%; In March, downstream isopropanol decreased from 8480 yuan/ton to 8230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95%; In March, the market for bisphenol A slightly declined due to its poor demand.

From the perspective of Business Society, the acetone settlement is approaching at the end of March, and the contracts have been depleted, with the market mainly maintaining stable operation. In the later stage, there are fewer bullish factors, and the demand side’s flat purchasing sentiment is average. The actual trading volume is limited, and the current cost side still has support. There is not much fluctuation in factory prices, so we will pay attention to the weekly port inventory situation in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 15th to March 22nd, 2024, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased, reaching 8500 yuan/ton last week and 8366.67 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1.57%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures fell on March 21st. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.3%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.2%.

On March 15, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8700 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton..

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On March 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8508 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 8542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from last week and an increase of 18.22% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, downstream demand has performed well this week, and the expected improvement in demand for raw material pure benzene due to the restart of styrene plants has driven the pure benzene market in East China to heat up. However, in the middle of the week, the styrene market fell, dragging down the mentality of the industrial chain, and the pure benzene market followed a pullback. Over the weekend, there were reports of device maintenance in the downstream, which once again dragged down market sentiment. However, due to the tight supply of crude benzene, auction prices continued to rise this week. As a result, the ex factory prices in the main production areas of the hydrogenated benzene market only slightly decreased this week, with the current mainstream price ranging from 8300 to 8550 yuan/ton.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market slightly decreased, with a decrease of 50-150 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises this week has not changed much compared to last week, and the overall supply of hydrogenated benzene is relatively stable. On the demand side, news of downstream production stoppages was released this week, dragging down market sentiment. Overall, the negative impact on the hydrogenated benzene market this week is significant. However, due to the cost support brought by the increase in raw material crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have a strong attitude of price support, so prices have only slightly fallen this week. In the absence of a significant favorable environment for supply and demand in the future, it is expected that there will still be a slight decline in the short term.

Recently, the atmosphere in the epoxy chloropropane market has been weak, and transactions have continued to be light. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 21, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to March 11 (the reference price of epoxy chloropropane was 8150.00).

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is around 50%, and the terminal demand is poor. The main downstream epoxy resin shipments are not smooth, and actual transactions are limited. The intention to buy epichlorohydrin is low, and small orders need to be followed up. The market’s new order transactions are flat, and the epichlorohydrin market is operating under pressure.

Cost side: According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of propylene as a raw material has recently risen narrowly, while the price of glycerol as a raw material has remained stable. Cost pressure still exists, but it has limited impact on the price of epichlorohydrin.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is still support for the cost side, and some factories have parking plans. However, short-term demand may remain weak or dominate the market. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9290.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9420.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.40%. The price has increased by 13.27% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated and increased in the past three months, and the market continues to rise this week. The pure benzene market is on the rise, with good cost support and a rapid decline in port inventory. There is still expectation of destocking, and the styrene market is slightly higher.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has surged to 8800-8850 yuan/ton this week, and there is room for adjustment in the main listing. The price of pure benzene in East China has risen due to optimistic future demand and increased expectations for pure benzene demand, driving up the price of pure benzene. Shandong is driven by the strength of the East China market, and market buying continues. Multiple refineries continue to offer higher prices, resulting in a large number of transactions.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average PS price was 9700 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average PS price was 9833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.37% and a 5.55% increase compared to the same period last year. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 9650 and 11250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10000 and 11500 yuan/ton.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10450.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

The domestic ABS market has been relatively stable recently. As of March 18th, the average price of ABS products was 12112.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.18% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has remained stable, moderate, and strong, maintaining support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plant operations continue to decrease, and supply pressure has significantly eased. On the demand side, due to downstream enterprises resuming work and increasing production schedules, ABS consumption has increased. Merchants are attempting to offer higher prices, resulting in strong market momentum. The current ABS fundamentals are generally bullish, and the ABS market may continue to rise in the short term in the future.

In the near future, cost support has been good, and the domestic supply of styrene is expected to decrease, with stable demand. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and rise in the short term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined this week. On the 18th, the market reported around 13420 yuan/ton, and on the 11th, it reported around 13440 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.15%. The price of raw material acrylonitrile is stable, while the price of acrylic acid has slightly increased. The fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. Enterprises in the main production areas have basically resumed production, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market trend has narrowed down. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9500 to 9800 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; Downstream ABS production has slightly decreased at a low level, maintaining only essential support for acrylonitrile; The supply side of the acrylonitrile unit is generally loose, and some units have maintenance plans in the future.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has slightly increased this week. As of March 18th, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in the East China region is 6262.50 yuan/ton. Some units have been shut down for maintenance, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined, and the supply has been reduced, supporting the market’s attitude of price support. The supply of low-cost goods in the market has decreased, the downstream butyl acrylate operating rate has slightly increased, the acrylic lotion industry has started steadily, and the demand needs to be followed up in the face of the acrylic market inquiry and purchase. The actual market transactions are ordinary, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has declined this week, while the domestic temperature has rebounded. The market demand is limited, and the main focus is on oversupply. Liquid prices have continued to decline from Monday to Thursday, and the market is cautious and wait-and-see. The price increase of imported gas is favorable for the domestic gas market, and the liquid price has stopped falling and risen.

Market forecast: In the near future, the price of raw material acrylonitrile will remain stable, while the price of acrylic acid will slightly decline. The fuel market will fall, and the cost of polyacrylamide will fluctuate. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production areas has basically returned to normal this week; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 2390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2384 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has decreased by 0.25% and increased by 5.96% year-on-year. On March 14th, the baking soda commodity index was 158.31, a decrease of 0.21 points from yesterday, a decrease of 32.87% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 79.35% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of baking soda is consolidating and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is running weakly, with the mainstream market quotation of around 1900-2400 yuan/ton. According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.35% compared to the same period last year. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week was around 89%, and the production of soda ash this week was around 730000 tons.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has recently stabilized, while the upstream raw material of soda ash has temporarily stabilized. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food sectors of baking soda have recently made more purchases according to demand, replenishing inventory in an appropriate amount, without any positive support. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On March 14, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 107400 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.88% compared to the average price of 102400 yuan/ton on March 10. On March 14th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 116600 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.67% compared to the average price of 111400 yuan/ton on March 10th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise this week. In terms of supply, it is currently understood that the environmental protection situation in Yichun has not affected the production of large lithium salt enterprises in the area, only affecting the maintenance and recovery progress of small and medium-sized lithium salt enterprises. The vast majority of lithium salt enterprises outside Yichun have basically resumed normal production. In addition, domestic imports of lithium carbonate may gradually arrive at the port in the middle and late stages, which will lead to an upward trend in the domestic supply of lithium carbonate in the future, thereby suppressing the rise in lithium carbonate prices.

In terms of demand, most downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes have recently continued to adopt a strategy of purchasing low-priced lithium carbonate on a mandatory basis, without the idea of a large amount of reserve inventory. Therefore, the acceptance of high priced lithium carbonate is still low. But with the gradual reduction of low-priced lithium carbonate in the market and the gradual increase in individual sales prices of lithium salt enterprises, the focus of market transaction prices is gradually rising.

The lithium hydroxide market is showing an upward trend. Affected by the upstream prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium carbonate, the increase in cost prices has boosted the mentality of businesses. The downstream demand for high nickel materials has improved, and the 3C digital market has performed average. Some manufacturers are gradually increasing production, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries is still good. The lithium hydroxide market transactions are still mainly long-term contract orders.

Downstream prices of lithium iron phosphate remain stable and upward, with active market inquiries. Long term orders are mainly executed, while individual transactions have shown signs of improvement. The price increase of lithium carbonate has driven up the production cost of iron lithium materials. Due to the increase in raw material prices, iron lithium enterprises have increased their production appropriately based on sales, resulting in an increase in the supply of iron lithium materials. The demand for power and energy storage is recovering, and the rise in raw materials has stimulated the enthusiasm of battery cell companies to lock orders in advance, leading to an increase in demand for iron lithium materials.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose first and then fell this week. On March 14, 2024, the price experienced a significant decline. The opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 119500 yuan/ton, the closing price was 112100 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 119800 yuan/ton. The daily decline was 7.01%, with 433100 transactions and 210848 positions.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is mainly driven by factors such as tightening environmental pressure, reduced production in overseas mines, and strong expectations for the new energy vehicle terminal market. But with the recovery of domestic salt lake production and the arrival of import supply, the incremental pressure on the market for lithium carbonate is becoming apparent. In the state where demand has not yet been fully released, it is expected that the short-term change in spot price of lithium carbonate will be temporarily postponed.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of dichloroethane in the domestic market increased this week (3.4-3.8). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 2720 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 2840 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.41%.

2、 Analysis and Review

The overall domestic market for dichloroethane has risen, with a slight decrease in the focus of dichloroethane in Jiangsu this week compared to last week. New orders have been poorly executed, and inventory is mainly consumed. The markets in Shandong and Shanghai have rebounded, with a strong trading atmosphere and low inventory levels. The price of dichloroethane has slightly increased compared to last week.

In terms of raw materials, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia fell by $20/ton this week, and the domestic liquid chlorine market is on the rise. The shipment situation of alkali plants is still acceptable.

In terms of demand, the ethylene method PVC in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton this week. In February, the export prices of ethylene method PVC in East China and North China were lowered, and the export transaction situation for that month was average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the raw materials have fluctuated, but the domestic prices on the demand side have risen, which is a favorable factor for the market of dichloroethane. It is expected that dichloroethane will remain stable and tend to operate stronger in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market was operating weakly this week (March 4th to March 11th), with prices in the East China region dropping 0.36% to 13850 yuan/ton on March 11th.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the trend of manganese ore has been relatively passive, with market prices falling and factory inquiries continuing to push down prices. Miners have insisted on raising prices despite the continuous increase in external quotations, but transactions have not been unified yet. There are some low price transactions in the market, and the spot side wants to raise prices, but downstream constraints are more obvious, resulting in manganese ore prices still being weak. As of March 8th, some quotations from Tianjin Port have reached high levels, with semi carbonated products trading around 34-34.5 yuan/ton, AUD 36-36.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon 35.5-36 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Port’s semi carbonated carbon costs 33.8-34 yuan/ton, while Australian seeds cost around 34 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively stable.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to operate weakly, with mainstream prices ranging from 12200 to 12300 yuan/ton, slightly lower than before the holiday. With domestic enterprises resuming work one after another, the overall supply on site is relatively stable, but there is a lack of demand in the workplace. The market atmosphere is still relatively flat, market trading is relatively light, and the spot market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Most downstream suppliers maintain rigid procurement, lacking demand support, resulting in an overall weak market operation. Downstream suppliers have a strong attitude towards price suppression, and the performance of steel bidding prices is also weak, dragging down market sentiment. At present, the mentality of the supply-demand game is still strong, and the overall mentality of traders is biased towards wait-and-see. Under the supply-demand game mentality, it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily with a weak trend in the short term, with a focus on the subsequent steel recruitment situation and the release of downstream replenishment demand.

Related data:

This week, the silicon and manganese market has been volatile and weakly operating. Hegang silicon and manganese pricing has been announced, with a month on month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. Some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia have stated that they are currently in a loss making state, and the profits of the entire ferroalloy industry have been severely compressed. Most manufacturers still have low production enthusiasm, and their short-term confidence is insufficient. In addition, there has been a significant increase in the external quotation of manganese ore on the cost side recently, and there is still room for cost increase. Some manufacturers have adjusted their manganese ore ratio plans, and there may not be much room for a significant short-term cost decline. On the futures side, the overall performance of the silicon manganese market this week was weak, with no positive news in the short term to boost the market, making it difficult to rise. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 5900-6000 yuan/ton on March 8th.