According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price has maintained a downward trend since September. As of September 25, the average market price was 3401 yuan / ton, down 5.53% compared with the beginning of the month, and 33.93% lower than that at the beginning of the month. Crude oil price adjustment, cost side support weakened, PTA’s own spot supply is still loose, buying and selling atmosphere is flat, overall speaking, the negative atmosphere in the market is relatively strong, resulting in PTA prices all the way down.
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Recent changes of PTA plant in China
Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status
Fuhai Chuang 450 reduced the load to about 60% on August 31 and reached full load on September 7.
Ningbo Yisheng 220 was overhauled for 2 weeks on September 3 and discharged at night on September 17
Huabin Petrochemical 140 reduced its load by 50% on September 16 and resumed full load on September 21
Hailun Petrochemical 120 was overhauled on August 2 and is scheduled to restart at the end of September
Zhuhai BP 235 short stop on September 23
Hanbang Petrochemical 220 plans to overhaul for one month on September 30
Chuanneng chemical 100 plans to overhaul in October, the specific time to be determined
Yizheng Chemical fiber 65 is planned to be overhauled for about 10 days in October
Yadong petrochemical company plans to overhaul about 2 weeks in mid November
From the perspective of PTA supply, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons reduced the load to about 60% on August 31 and reached full load on September 7; Ningbo Yisheng 2.2 million tons discharged at night on September 17; Huabin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. resumed full load on September 21; Zhuhai BP 2.35 million tons PTA plant was shut down in the evening of September 23, and the overall operating rate increased significantly to more than 92%. Supply continues to be loose, inventory is still maintained at a high level of about 4 million tons, PTA supply pressure is still large in the short term.
In the crude oil market, multiple factors have led to a large correction in international oil prices. The most concern is that the impact of the global epidemic will intensify and the demand may be suppressed. In the latest monthly report, OPEC lowered global oil demand to 90.2 million barrels / day, about 400000 barrels / day compared with the previous report. The decline in demand in India and other countries is the main reason for the adjustment. As of September 25, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was USD 40.31/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures was USD 41.94/barrel.
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In terms of downstream demand, in the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the polyester fiber factory was in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high finished product inventory, and the weak terminal demand led to the insufficient quality of “Jinjiu”. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 35-43 days, of which POY inventory is 13-17 days, FDY inventory is around 24-35 days, and DTY inventory is about 32-43 days. Near the National Day holiday, the performance of the demand side has improved. The average production and sales of major polyester factories are 110% – 120%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 300%. In terms of price, the current quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5000-5250 yuan / ton.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that PTA plant restart and maintenance coexist at the end of the month. Next week, hailun Petrochemical’s 1.2-million-ton PTA plant will be discharged, and Hanbang’s 2.2-million-ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled. Affected by the purchasing action before the festival, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to over 74%. The price rise of some downstream polyester factories has boosted the PTA price, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound of PTA price in the short term. In October, the situation of low temperature and low fire in the downstream may continue to October. The industry is mostly pessimistic. The market is dominated by PTA oversupply, but some devices are still possible to be overhauled, which gives certain support to the price. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA price fluctuates slightly and acts actively.
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