According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 19th to 23rd (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2218 yuan/ton to around 2283 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.93% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 6.16%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.18%. The port methanol market is experiencing a volatile consolidation trend due to factors such as high port methanol inventory, weak downstream demand, expected import inventory reduction, and macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations.

As of the close on January 23rd, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2251 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2303 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2246 yuan/ton. It closed at 2298 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, up 66 yuan/ton or 2.96% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1349180, the position is 806994, and the daily increase is -10177.
On the cost side, the enthusiasm for coal procurement is weak, and coal prices are under pressure to decline, which weakens the support for methanol costs. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, the demand for port olefins has decreased, and inventory has been reduced, but the demand on the table is weak, which directly leads to price pressure. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on January 22, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 94.5-95.5 cents/gallon, up 3 cents/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 269.5-270.5 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, there will be abundant spot supply, high inventory in the middle and downstream links, and negative factors such as seasonal off-season demand still exist. Before the holiday, companies will actively reduce prices to reduce inventory, and the market will continue to bottom out. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience consolidation and volatility.