Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the domestic vitamin market continued to decline in November, with some products experiencing an intensified decline and the market remaining sluggish.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the decline in vitamin C prices intensified in November, with a price of 20 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 18.67 yuan/kg on the 29th, a monthly decrease of 6.65%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, raw material prices have continued to decline, and the market price of vitamin C has continued to decline. Upstream quotations are subject to market trends, while downstream prices are subject to demand and purchase, with a focus on immediate needs.

The price of vitamin A continued to decline in November, with an average price of 82 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 79 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.14%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 70-75 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 18-20 euros/kg. The demand for vitamin A in the market is weak, and domestic and foreign enterprises have extended their parking time. The supply side is tightening, but due to the weak demand side, the price center of vitamin A continues to shift downwards.

In November, the price of vitamin E continued to decline, with the mainstream market price around 65 yuan/kg. The European market quotation is 6.5-6.6 euros/kg. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market continues to decline. In October 2023, China’s export volume of vitamin E reached 6079.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month on month decrease of 16.7%. The demand in the export market is steadily increasing.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believe that the current market for most vitamins is in a bottoming out stage, and the market is in the stage of finding support points. Without obvious positive factors to boost it, it is expected that most products will maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1193.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1180.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12%. The current price has dropped by 12.16% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

In November, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region slightly decreased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has fluctuated less in the past three months, and orders were placed slightly this month. As of November 28th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1240 yuan/ton. In November, the raw material methanol market fluctuated and stabilized, with average cost support. The demand for downstream board factories continued to be weak due to environmental impact. Formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally, and production enterprises faced significant shipping pressure, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: In November, the domestic methanol market was weak and consolidated, with weak coal prices and insufficient cost support. Although there was an expectation of a reduction in imports in December, overall imports remained at a high level, and supply side pressure remained. The total supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, and the downstream has entered the traditional off-season. For methanol, the main demand is for purchasing and the price is significantly reduced. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support and average demand from downstream sheet metal factories. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the prices of stainless steel and nickel continued to decline in November. As of the end of the month, the spot price of stainless steel was 12628.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.16% compared to the beginning of the month. As of the end of the month, the spot nickel quotation for upstream nickel was 124700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.66% compared to the beginning of the month. In November, the new production of electroplated nickel continued to increase, and a large number of intermediate nickel products were put into production. Nickel sulfate and pure nickel were inverted, and the production of nickel sulfate by dissolving nickel beans was no longer advantageous. The electroplated nickel produced by nickel sulfate had more advantages. Driven by profits, production gradually transitioned from a shortage of supply to an excess situation in the pure nickel market, and nickel prices continued to decline. However, downstream stainless steel prices have further declined due to factors such as lower costs and weak downstream demand.

Macro surface bias

After Powell’s speech, US short-term interest rate futures traders postponed the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut from May next year to June. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices for residents in October decreased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month on month. Retail sales in the United States remained resilient in October, which to some extent offset recent optimism about a decline in US inflation. The US dollar index and US bond yields showed signs of peaking and falling in early November, supporting the momentum behind the high level operation of the US dollar index and US bond yields – the core CPI also showed a sustained weakening trend. The excess savings of current US residents are about to be depleted in the fourth quarter, and the tightening financial environment will gradually affect the judgment of residents on their balance sheets.

Nickel fundamental surface

Comprehensive oversupply of nickel

The new production increase of electroplated nickel can be continuously increased, and a large number of intermediate nickel products are put into production. Nickel sulfate and pure nickel are inverted, and the production of nickel sulfate by dissolving nickel beans is no longer advantageous. The electroplated nickel produced by nickel sulfate has more advantages. Driven by profits, production has gradually transitioned from a supply shortage to an excess situation in the pure nickel market. The growth rate of NPI project production in Indonesia, the reduction in production of Qingshan stainless steel project in Indonesia, the decrease in local consumption of nickel iron in Indonesia, and the increase in domestic flow back, have squeezed into the domestic nickel iron market with low cost. In the fourth quarter, Indonesian Chinese enterprises increased their production capacity and operating rates for high ice nickel and refined nickel from China and Indonesia. However, short-term oversupply still suppresses the potential for nickel price increases.

LME nickel inventory slightly increased

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory slightly increased in November. As of the end of the month, LME nickel inventory was 44898 tons, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.92% from the beginning of the year. The global refined nickel explicit inventory maintains an accumulation trend.

Weak demand

Downstream 300 series stainless steel production stoppage and production reduction have expanded, and overall inventory remains at a high level, resulting in certain losses for stainless steel plants. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable.

Stainless steel basic surface

Steel mills shut down, reduce production, and expand production

Downstream 300 series stainless steel maintenance shutdown and production reduction have expanded, and overall inventory remains at a high level. Stainless steel plants have incurred certain losses, but production still maintains an incremental trend, and the steel market as a whole is showing a weak operation.

As of the end of the month, the total inventory of stainless steel was 995300 tons, a decrease of 5.43% compared to the beginning of the month. The overall inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level.

Downstream demand is sluggish

Although domestic macro policies have once again intensified, downstream demand is sluggish, and there is greater pressure on stainless steel. Due to the recent decline in nickel iron and nickel ore prices, the cost of stainless steel has decreased, and poor terminal demand has led to negative feedback in the industrial chain, resulting in weak mining prices.

Annual price comparison chart of nickel stainless steel

According to the annual price comparison chart of Business Society, in the past five years, the price of stainless steel has fluctuated in December, and the probability of nickel price increase in December is relatively high.

In summary, Indonesia’s nickel iron reflux remains high, nickel iron prices frequently decline, domestic nickel iron factories suffer losses, the industry chain shows negative feedback, nickel ore prices are under pressure and downward, demand for nickel in new energy batteries is low, battery grade nickel sulfate continues to decline, excess nickel element pressure continues to transmit towards pure nickel, and downward pressure on nickel prices to break through levels is expanding. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner.

For stainless steel, the cost side has moved downwards and there is no sign of a rebound. As we enter the low demand season in December, it is expected that stainless steel prices will continue to operate weakly.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the vitamin market remained weak this week, and downstream entry enthusiasm remained weak, resulting in a weak supply-demand situation in the market.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the vitamin C market has been operating steadily this week, with mainstream feed grade vitamin C prices ranging from 18 to 19 yuan/kg and European market vitamin C prices ranging from 2.25 to 2.40 euros/kg. Recently, there has been a slight increase in the corn market, but the magnitude is limited, and the boost to the vitamin market is limited. The overall market trend is mostly in line with the market, with no obvious positive support and weak operation.

This week, the price of vitamin A has slightly declined, with the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market being 74-76 yuan/kg and the European market quoting 15.5-22 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has stable trading, but due to the extended maintenance of foreign vitamin A factories, the market production and sales have been weak.

This week, the price of vitamin E has declined at a low level, with the current mainstream VE market quotation ranging from 63 to 65 yuan/ton. The European market quotation is 6.65-6.95 euros per kilogram. Some large domestic factories are in the maintenance period and have suspended their quotations. Manufacturers rarely provide quotations, while traders follow the market and negotiate mainly.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believe that some vitamins are still in a sluggish stage, with small and single transactions on the market, lacking upward momentum. They will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of November 21, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. Recently, DMF prices have remained stable and strong, with prices rising by 1.34% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Recently, the overall market price of DMF has shown an upward trend, with a price increase of 1.34% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the upstream methanol trend is weak, with weak support for the DMF cost side. Methanol has shown a downward trend this week, lacking positive support. The downstream procurement atmosphere is still good, and procurement is positive. Currently, manufacturers have smooth shipments, and they have given up profits and taken orders. However, the momentum for the later rise is insufficient, mainly focusing on stable operation.

Chemical Index: On November 20th, the chemical index stood at 867 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.07% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

3、 Future Market Forecast

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that the trend of upstream methanol is weak, with insufficient support on the cost side. The downstream procurement atmosphere is average, with on-demand replenishment being the main focus. DMF lacks momentum for later growth and mainly maintains stable operation.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were weak and downward this week. On November 19th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 10100 yuan/ton

Cost side: This week, the price trend of coal tar has declined, and downstream deep processing products have suffered severe losses. The operating rate of enterprises has significantly declined, and the sluggish situation of deep processing products is difficult to change. The coal tar market is difficult to find favorable results. Downstream product prices of coal tar have all experienced varying degrees of decline. In some regions, there has been a situation where the prices of coal tar and raw coal tar are inverted. The willingness to purchase raw coal tar is relatively negative, and there is a strong bearish atmosphere on the market. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar in the market is 4350 yuan/ton. The trend of the coal tar market is relatively pessimistic, and support for the cost side of carbon black is weakened. It is expected that the price of coal tar will be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained normal operating levels, and since October this year, the carbon black market prices have remained high. Despite the good consolidation and profitability of the carbon black industry, carbon black enterprises have less equipment maintenance and high enthusiasm for operating. In October, carbon black production reached a historic high, and there is sufficient supply of carbon black goods on the market.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire and rubber industry’s domestic market demand is weak and flat, and most enterprises still have stock, mainly replenishing a small amount of raw material carbon black. Affected by the market’s tendency to buy up rather than down, the acceptance of carbon black is relatively negative, and the market has a strong bearish atmosphere. Inquiries into the market are mainly focused on price suppression, while the demand side remains in high demand.

Overall, the current carbon black market is operating in a weak and volatile manner, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in demand for goods, and the raw material end continues to weaken with moderate support. The bearish factors on the market are dominant, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 17th, the spot nickel quotation was 136733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 32.44%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 10 times and risen 1 time, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

On the macro level, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve stated that if necessary, more measures will be taken on interest rates, without discussing interest rate cuts; The Chairman of the Chicago Fed stated that the primary task of changing interest rates is to address inflation progress; The Chairman of the Dallas Fed stated that inflation is still too high. China’s exports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3%. The PPI of the Eurozone decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in September.

In terms of supply: In October 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24000 tons, an increase of 8.9% month on month and 55.7% year on year. It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 24000 tons in November 2023, which is the same as the refined nickel production in October.

In terms of demand: Alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding, while civilian alloys are not good. The demand for electroplating has remained relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory is on the high side, and the scope of production reduction by steel mills in October has expanded.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, nickel prices continue to be under pressure due to factors such as oversupply, sluggish demand, and loose costs for electrowinning nickel. Refined nickel production continues to be released, inventory continues to accumulate, and excess pressure is becoming increasingly prominent. As stainless steel plants continue to reduce production in November, demand for nickel is weakening. The cost of electrowinning nickel has loosened due to the expected increase in intermediate supply. Overall, the pattern of nickel basic supply exceeding demand is relatively clear. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate and operate weakly.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the acrylonitrile market has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9937 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from 9562 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9800 to 10100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the cost continued to support acrylonitrile; The construction of major downstream ABS continues to rise slightly; The start of the acrylonitrile plant fluctuated slightly, and there was basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market just needed inquiry support, and prices rose.

Recently (11.1-11.13), domestic acrylonitrile plants have been shut down and restarted simultaneously, and the overall operation of acrylonitrile has shown a small amplitude dynamic trend.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the raw material propylene market has experienced slight fluctuations and has risen slightly, with support for the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 13th, the domestic propylene price was 7203 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from 7050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The low point during the cycle was 6958 yuan/ton, and the high point was 7370 yuan/ton.

It is understood that as of early November, downstream ABS production has slightly increased to around 80%, which has improved its support for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The mainstream acrylic fiber factories have gradually reduced production and undergone minor repairs, resulting in a slight weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; The Nandi unit of nitrile rubber is planned to restart in the near future, and the demand for acrylonitrile is expected to increase slightly; The construction of polyacrylamide and other materials has been basically stable. Overall, the current demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly improved compared to the previous period.

Future Market Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is stable and fluctuates slightly; The demand side has slightly improved compared to the previous period. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated and the raw material propylene price has fluctuated and consolidated. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the market for dichloromethane has been weak and fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from 2575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 2610 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol is weak and slightly higher, the price of liquid chlorine is higher, and the cost center of dichloromethane is slightly higher; Downstream and terminal customers are cautious in their purchases. The general inventory pressure for enterprise shipments has accumulated slightly, and the factory price of dichloromethane has been lowered. As of November 13th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2460-2550 yuan/ton.

In the near future (11.1-11.13), the domestic production of methane chloride has remained around 6.1%, and a plant in Shandong Province is planning to restart its operation.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the raw material methanol has slightly increased, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased, and the cost support for dichloromethane has strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65% from the 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of November 13th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has been sorted out around 600 yuan/ton.

The domestic production of methane chloride is at a low level around 6.1%. Although the factory price of dichloromethane has recently decreased, downstream inquiries are few, and terminals are cautious in picking up goods. The overall transaction atmosphere in the market is still weak, and the shipping situation of enterprises has not significantly improved, and there is still a small accumulation of inventory in enterprises.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, there is still pressure on inventory of dichloromethane enterprises, and the demand side is still weak, which has a relatively short impact on the dichloromethane market. However, the rise in raw material prices has cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose this week (11.6-11.10). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7090 yuan/ton, and the average price on the weekend is 7270 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.82%.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 10th

Shandong region/ 7250-7300 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6900-7000 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market rose first and then declined this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the improvement of downstream polypropylene market, the price difference between propylene and it widened, driving downstream active entry into the market. At the same time, some upstream devices were shut down, resulting in a decrease in supply, and the propylene market was actively pushing up. In the second half of the week, the price of propylene has risen to a high level, and there is a resistance mentality in the downstream. The wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, while the upstream is mainly to stimulate sales and reduce prices to eliminate inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that there are start-up plans for devices in the future region, and supply is expected to increase. The demand side is following up slowly, and under the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the propylene market will mainly decline in a narrow range next week.