1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the trend of domestic polysilicon this week (12.23-27) has stabilized, and the market decline has slowed down, but the market is still cold, and the pressure of supply and demand has not been alleviated significantly. As of December 27, the overall weekly decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy is 1.17% according to the business club’s monitoring. The average external quotation of enterprises is 54000-56000 yuan / ton, and the current price is 30% lower than that of last year Right. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, and the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal has little change compared with the first ten days.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the supply pressure is still there. In the late ten days, domestic polysilicon supply performance is relatively abundant, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially from the silicon material factory with a high proportion of polysilicon materials. The performance of monocrystalline silicon is slightly better than polycrystalline silicon, which accounts for part of the demand of polycrystalline silicon. The expansion of monocrystalline production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. According to the manufacturer’s situation, in the polysilicon enterprise, the pure purchase of wash free polycrystalline materials is less, most of them are matched with secondary material sources, reducing the cost of silicon materials, and keeping the cash cost of polysilicon chips close to the market as much as possible. On the other hand, the single crystal stock of silicon material enterprises has been digested during the low price period of the market in the last few weeks, and there is no more supply pressure. Therefore, the price change of single crystal material at the end of the month is not big, and the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon also eases, which is slower than that of the previous week. This demand cannot be separated from the change, mainly because the polycrystalline material stock of silicon material factories has not been greatly improved at present, and the enterprises do not have the intention of reducing the stock Wish. Even under the situation that the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, the price stopped falling and stabilized this week.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since December, polysilicon demand has remained rigid and stable, and the market price decline in the middle and late ten days has slowed down significantly. On the one hand, because of the rigid downstream demand, there is no obvious cooling trend in purchasing at the end of the year. On the other hand, the demand will be put on the agenda from the late ten days before the Spring Festival, so polysilicon prices have stabilized, and the market has rebounded The driving force of the recovery is that the part of single crystal materials is affected by stable demand and the decline of inventory water level, and the price still maintains a strong trend. If the demand is heated and accelerated later, polysilicon will have an opportunity to stop the decline and recovery.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the improvement of demand is the main reason for polysilicon market to stop falling and stabilize. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, enterprise inventory pressure is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. On the other hand, in terms of demand, at present, the market demand has slightly improved, and the company’s stock has increased year ago. Therefore, the polysilicon market cannot be too pessimistic. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, and the possibility of a small rebound will not be ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R134a rose slightly in the second half of December. On December 16, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23000, and the average price at the end of the month (27 days) was 23166.67 tons, an increase of 0.72%. On December 27, the R134a commodity index was 84.76, the same as yesterday, 15.24% lower than the highest point of 100.00 points (2019-09-02), 82.93 points lower than the lowest point of November 12, 2019 Up 2.21%. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a refrigerant market is up in the near future. At present, the demand for R134a in the automobile industry is back heated, and the starting rate of refrigerant R134a manufacturers is increased, but the market supply is still tight, while the market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is slightly increased, and the market is improved. The cost end of refrigerant R134a is strongly supported, and the price trend is upward. As of December 27, the quotation of Quzhou Jiuzhou chemical R134a is 21500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang lengwang technology R134a is 22500 yuan / ton, Yuemei chemical R134a is 23000 yuan / ton, Longxun trade R134a is 21500 yuan / ton, Yumei chemical R134a is 23000 yuan / ton, blue planet R134a is 25000 yuan / ton, and the price is concentrated in 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is rising. In the near future, the factory in the field is generally in good condition, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of Business Club: in the near future, the demand for refrigerant R134a in the automobile industry for stock has been warmed up, the market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has increased slightly, the support of the cost end and demand end of refrigerant R134a has been strengthened, and the operating rate of refrigerant R134a manufacturers has increased, but the market supply is still tight, and it is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province has been stable recently. The average price of formaldehyde is 1060.00 yuan / ton. The current price is down 11.30% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the market price of formaldehyde in China is stable. As of the 25th, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 980 yuan / ton, that of South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 1130 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%. The plant has been restarted. There are a lot of restart of formaldehyde plant, sufficient supply and inventory of formaldehyde market, flat trading atmosphere of formaldehyde market, large shipping pressure of enterprises, and stable price.

Industrial chain: the domestic methanol market continues to be weak, and the local price slightly falls. In terms of the mainland market, the overall change is not big, the demand side remains light, and some enterprises make a small profit when the shipment is weak. It is reported that under the red warning in Henan and other places, some downstream enterprises stop production and vehicle transportation is also limited, which needs continuous attention. In the port market, inventory continued to decline and the market fluctuated in a narrow range, with little change as a whole. However, after the port price was raised, arbitrage with the mainland was closed, and shipment weakened. Limited support for formaldehyde. The downstream market is affected by the environmental protection regulation, the overall operating rate is average, the rigid purchase is maintained, and the formaldehyde price is adjusted.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, methanol in the upstream has been sorted in a narrow range, with little fluctuation in cost, light market trading, general operating rate in the downstream market, and weak support in demand and cost. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation will be the main trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, today’s comprehensive price of PC market is 13043.33 yuan / ton, and the domestic PC market is weak and stable

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the PC market is weak, the market continues to decline, the demand follow-up is slow, the market remains stable, the downstream replenishment is mainly on demand, and the actual order can be discussed.

Industry chain: the mainstream range of bisphenol a market in East China is around 10000-10050 yuan / ton. The downstream factories follow up passively. The inquiry atmosphere is light and the transaction is average.

Industry: on December 23, the PC commodity index was 57.84, flat with yesterday, down 54.11% from 126.05 (2017-12-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.64% from 55.81, the lowest point on November 18, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

According to PC analysts of the business club, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the market is strong, and the market is weak and volatile in the short term,

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2200.00 yuan / ton, down 9.09% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 69.84 on December 20.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by ortho phthalic method in China was 6350 yuan / ton, up 0.20% from 6337.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 17.17% year on year.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise slightly, and the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China increased slightly. The downstream factories maintained just need to purchase, the factory inventory pressure remained, high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. In East China, 6400-6700 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method and 6100-6300 yuan / ton for naphthalene method; in North China, 6250-6400 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the purchase is based on demand, the wait-and-see state is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are on the market In recent years, the price of industrial naphthalene has increased significantly, the price of NEFA phthalic anhydride has continued to rise, and the price of o-phthalic anhydride has been slightly affected.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

This week, the downstream DOP price rose slightly, the price of isooctanol rose, and the cost of DOP raw materials rose. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and falling, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7400-7550 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is normal, and the upstream ox price remains fluctuating, affected by the cost, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period, but the increase range is limited.

I. price trend

At the beginning of this week, the EPS price was 9212 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, the EPS price was 9287 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.81%. The overall trend of EPS market was stable and preferred, some of which rose. However, the actual transaction in the market is slightly flat, the trading is slightly stalemate, and the delivery rhythm is general.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Hairong EPS in Dongying is 9500 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9200 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

EPS market operation atmosphere is flat, the spot market trading is flat, the downstream market buying is still weak, the actual deal deadlock. It is expected that EPS market will maintain a steady trend.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market this week was stable, up about 0.67% as of Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market price of this week is stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5650-5700 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, trading volume shrank slightly this week compared with last week, and the port inventory increased significantly, about 28000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil price is generally volatile. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 0.08%, Brent futures rose 0.33%, WTI futures fell 0.07%, and Dubai futures rose 1.51%.

On the downstream side, on the TDI side, the domestic TDI market fell slightly this week, with few enquiries and purchases. In East China, the price of domestic goods with bills and domestic goods with bills was 10800-10900 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills was 11100-11300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak shock later. In PX market, the price of external market is about 790-792 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 811-813 US dollars / ton CFR China. The demand of downstream textile industry has not improved, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain 6700 yuan / ton next week.

 
III. future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, we will continue to focus on the market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino US trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. In general, with the coming of the long holiday in Europe and the United States, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next week.

I. price trend

II. Market analysis

This week, the weak domestic potassium sulfate did not change. Manheim potassium sulfate factory offers about 2650% powder, 2750% particles and 52% water-soluble powder in Hebei Province; and about 2550% powder, 2700% particles and 52% water-soluble powder in Shandong Province. The price of potassium sulphate in the water salt system is small and backward, and the sales situation has not changed significantly for the time being. Although Manheim manufacturers have reported more inquiries recently, and some manufacturers have reported a slight drop in their inventory, the overall sales pressure is still large. It is understood that at present, 50% of the powder supply agents of Qinghai factory quote 2500-2550 yuan / ton at the station, and 52% of the powder in Xinjiang is about 2620-2650.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of the business association, the volume of new potassium sulphate orders in various markets is flat, the upstream support is general, the demand is not strong, and the volume and price in various regions are still weak. It is expected that in the near future, low-end prices will stabilize and consolidate temporarily, while high-end prices will continue to decline.

On December 9, the HFA commodity index was 91.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.06% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 70.18% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China has increased slightly. Up to now, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China is 10140 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field. In the near future, the market of hydrofluoric acid in the field has improved. Because the downstream demand is not small, the price of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers has increased, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has increased Market prices rose slightly. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9500-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9500-10500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly higher, and the spot supply is available, but the demand situation is not clearly improved, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market is not rising much.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market kept fluctuating. As of the 10th day, the price of fluorite was 2883.33 yuan / ton. The fluctuating price of raw materials in the upstream brought a certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly due to the price support of raw fluorite. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 14500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved, while the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant yard has improved, and the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. For the upstream hydrofluoric acid market, purchase is on demand. However, with the decrease of fluorite supply and the support of cost, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly.