In June, influenced by upstream raw materials, the price trend of nylon filament first rose and then fell in June. In the middle and early June, due to the strong rise in the upstream raw material market and the increased pressure on cost support, the market trend of nylon filament remained high after the rise in May. In late June, the price of nylon filament fell along with the raw materials. On the supply and demand side, the on-site supply of goods remained stable, the downstream end market demand continued to be weak, the enthusiasm for taking goods was not high, and most downstream customers lacked confidence in the future market. The overall market wait-and-see atmosphere was thickened, and the trading atmosphere was not prosperous.

 

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Market price trend

 

Nylon price chart

 

Price trend of nylon POY (86d/24f)

 

From the perspective of price trend, the price of nylon filament first rose and then fell in June. According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d/24f) fell by 75 yuan / ton from 18250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 18700 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and then to 18175 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.41%.

 

The price of nylon DTY (premium product; 70d/24f) fell by 220 yuan / ton, or 1.07%, from 20480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 20920 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and then to 20260 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

 

The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40d/12f) fell by 325 yuan / ton, or 1.79%, from 21000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 21425 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and then to 20625 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

 

Upstream raw material Market

 

Price fluctuation chart of nylon filament industrial chain

 

Raw material cyclohexanone: the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell in June. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11610 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of June 27), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.12% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 7.07%. At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was strong and upward, and the cyclohexanone market rose significantly with the support of strong costs; In the middle and last ten days of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline, the spot price of raw material pure benzene fell back, the cost side lacked support, the downstream chemical fiber demand was weak, the market supply was abundant, the shipment was obviously blocked, and the price continued to fall.

 

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Raw material caprolactam: in June, the price of caprolactam followed that of crude oil, rising first and then falling. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the cost support began to weaken in the middle of June. The price of caprolactam fell from 14833 yuan / ton in the middle of the month to 13800 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Some manufacturers stopped production for maintenance, and the supply of caprolactam decreased. The downstream demand is insufficient, and the procurement is cautious. According to the caprolactam analysts of the business club, the cost price of caprolactam has been lowered, the supply and demand are both weak, and the market is mainly bad. The downstream demand is low and the load is reduced. In the absence of favorable conditions, it is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

 

Supply and demand market

 

On the supply side, the start-up of nylon production plants remained high, but the on-site spot supply remained sufficient, and some manufacturers had inventory pressure. In addition, the demand for downstream terminals is still weak, the overall enthusiasm for taking goods in the field is not good, and the follow-up of new orders is limited; It is difficult to make a deal on the floor. On the whole, there is still great pressure on the imbalance between supply and demand in the nylon filament market.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

In general, the raw material end continued to fall in the middle and late ten days, the supply of goods was sufficient, the demand end continued to be weak, there was no too much positive feedback at the end, and the market was mainly bad. Analysts from the business community predicted that the price of nylon filament would be weak and lower in the later period.

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441# silicon price trend

This week, the rising trend of metallic silicon is gradually slowing down, and the heat of price rise is somewhat lower than that of the previous week. From the middle of the week, the silicon price tends to be stable, maintaining at around 19300-19500 yuan / ton. There are many tentative inquiries in the market, but few actual transactions. Metal silicon carriers’ willingness to ship increased, the situation of covering the plate gradually disappeared, and the shipping quotation was lower than the market price, but the actual transaction was still lower than expected. As of June 24, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of 441\\1 metal silicon in the domestic market was 19450 yuan / ton, up 4.91% from last week.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Production capacity increase in Yunnan

On the supply side, in June, due to insufficient precipitation in Yunnan, the price of electricity fell slightly. The price of electricity is expected to be further reduced in July. Yunnan Dehong silicon plant will resume production in the middle of June, and the capacity of the newly restored part will be released at the end of the month.

 

Demand side

 

The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains unchanged, the demand for aluminum alloy has not improved significantly, the operating rate is lower than that of the same period in previous years, and the price remains weak. The price of ADC12 has dropped by 500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation is 195000 yuan / ton. Under the declining market, die-casting enterprises have cost pressure, and the procurement needs to be replenished.

 

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The reference market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas is 20480 yuan / ton. The overall downstream demand in the site is quiet, and the demand breakthrough has not yet emerged, resulting in weak acceptance of metal silicon prices with gradually rising raw materials.

 

At present, the mainstream transaction price of polycrystalline silicon in China is in the range of 230000-240000 yuan / ton. Although new capacity has been built recently, some polycrystalline silicon enterprises have been overhauled, which has led to higher prices and affected the increase in demand for raw materials. In addition, a local fire in a polysilicon plant reduced the production load of local enterprises, and the start-up fell month on month.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

As the price of metal silicon has been rising along the way and the operating rate in Southwest China has increased in the past two weeks, the fear of high prices and wait-and-see mood of downstream enterprises has grown, and downstream customers have pressed down the price of metal silicon seriously due to their low profits. On the whole, after the rebound of metallic silicon, the upward pressure is strong, the supply increase is expected, and the demand release is limited. In the short term, when the transaction is deadlocked, the market is mostly bearish.

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In June, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the price was 7500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7483 yuan / ton at the end of the month (June 27), a decrease of 0.22% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 7.87%.

 

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At the beginning of the month, the number of raw wheat on the market gradually increased. Due to the auction of aged rice and other factors, enterprises were more cautious in acquisition, the feed demand was relatively weak, and the corn price was weak. Some units in some regions have maintenance plans, and some units that have been shut down for a long time will soon resume normal production. There is no significant change in the supplier in the short term. In terms of demand, whether it is Baijiu or ethyl acetate downstream of chemical industry, the recent demand is good.

 

In the middle of May, domestic ethanol was still in the off-season of demand, and the price was mostly volatile. The quotation of production enterprises mostly fluctuates in a narrow range. There are slight differences among regions. The Northeast market has a downward trend in Heilongjiang, with orders from the main factories in the field, and low inventory pressure. At the early stage of Jilin market, the parking device has not heard of the start-up plan yet, and the on-site demander mainly consumes the spot goods of large manufacturers in Heilongjiang.

 

In late June, the domestic ethanol market was dominated by shock consolidation. At present, the supply side is relatively stable, but the demand performance is weak.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

 

PVA

As of June 27, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 8250-8300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol 7650-7800 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 8350-8400 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong region Corn alcohol Suspended quotation without goods

Guangdong region Rice / Cassava general ethanol 7600-7750 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol 8450-8550 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region Corn alcohol 8000 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 8200-8250 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 7350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Henan region Anhydrous ethanol 8100-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region General level 7350-7400 yuan / ton, tax included

Shandong region Common wheat 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Superior 7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu anhydrous 8100-8200 yuan / ton

Anhui region General level 7250-7350 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region anhydrous 8200 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Province Corn alcohol general grade 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 6850-7000 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Anhydrous ethanol 7900-8000 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 7050-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin Region Premium alcohol 7150-7200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin Region Anhydrous ethanol 7750-8200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

 

At present, the downstream demand is relatively light, the demand for Baijiu is in the off-season, and the ethyl acetate device has been started, which may drive the demand in a narrow range. The ethanol analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

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Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was relatively strong this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3350.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.00% during the week.

 

This week, the domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite market price range is 3000-3550 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated around 3200 yuan / ton. The inventory of enterprises has decreased, and enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

 

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Since the beginning of June, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 2.46% and the price of sulfur has decreased by 6.42%. In general, the upstream raw material cost of sodium pyrosulfite is still high, and the continued high cost will continue to support the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

According to the analysts of the business club, the inventory of sodium pyrosulfite has decreased, the raw material cost has remained high, and the overall domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.

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Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply this week

 

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. As of June 19, the price of acetic anhydride was 7700.00 yuan / ton, down 9.94% from 8550 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The price of acetic acid fell sharply, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell sharply.

 

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The price of raw material acetic acid fell at a high level

 

It can be seen from the statistical data of business association that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid is 0.967 from June 2021 to may 2022, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, and the market of acetic acid fell sharply this week. As of June 19, the price of acetic acid was 4150 yuan / ton, down 21.40% from 5280 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, acetic acid enterprises started their business one after another. In the off-season of the market, the supply of acetic acid increased, the demand declined, the momentum of acetic acid rising weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

Methanol price stopped rising and fell back

 

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As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price stopped rising and fell this week, and the methanol market stabilized. As of June 19, the methanol price was 2712.5 yuan / ton, up 2.07% from the methanol price of 2657.5 yuan / ton on June 12 last week, and down 0.09% from the high methanol price of 27155 yuan / ton on June 16 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of methanol stopped rising and fell, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell, the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

 

Outlook

 

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, the high price of raw material methanol fell this week, the price of acetic acid fell sharply, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply; This week, acetic acid enterprises resumed operation, the supply of acetic acid increased, the demand was insufficient, the price of acetic acid fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply. In general, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell sharply, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fall sharply in the future.

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Price trend of metallic magnesium

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Market analysis this week

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of the 17th, the average price in the domestic market was 26833.33 yuan / ton, down 0.62% on a weekly basis. The market price of magnesium ingots decreased slightly this week. After the centralized procurement last week, the market transaction performance this week was not positive. The downstream demand was mostly just for procurement. The market returned to rationality again, and there were signs of bottoming out and stabilizing again.

 

Supply and demand

The pattern of supply exceeding demand still exists. As the temperature rises, some factories begin to overhaul, the production of magnesium plants follows the change, the inventory remains flexible, the price of magnesium ingots still hovers near the cost line, and the willingness of factories to ship at low prices is reduced. On the demand side, after releasing part of the demand last week, the market mentality returned to rationality again, the market supply of low-cost goods became less and less, and the actual order trading volume this week was not ideal.

 

Upstream and downstream

 

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Ferrosilicon futures fell, bidding prices fell, market confidence was frustrated, spot prices also showed a trend of correction, cost side support weakened, and magnesium ingot prices also fell along with raw ferrosilicon. The price rising sentiment of Lanchan enterprises is strong. The rising price of raw coal has led some enterprises to expand their losses and choose to stop production for maintenance. The price rising trend of Lanchan has become a trend. The cost side of magnesium ingots is still supported, and the price of magnesium will be difficult again.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

On the whole, the operating pressure of the magnesium market is still there. There is production cost pressure at the top. The loss quotation of Lanchan enterprises rises. At the bottom, the market demand is depressed. Buyers purchase at a low price, and most of them just need to replenish the stock. In the short term, it is difficult to change the weak situation in the magnesium market. Considering that the cost line factories are unwilling to ship at a low price, it is expected that the magnesium market will still be weak.

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The lead market (6.10-6.17) fluctuated in a wide range this week, with a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 14960 yuan / ton last weekend and 15005 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.3% a week.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 24th week of 2022 (6.13-6.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were metallic silicon (7.54%), lead (0.47%) and antimony (0.31%). A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were copper (-2.95%), nickel (-1.77%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.25%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.14%.

 

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Lead futures market this week

 

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15085 yuan / ton+ 150., 87830 tons

London lead, USD 2050 / T- 92., 38825 tons

In terms of futures, the “V” trend of Lun lead this week, with an overall shock range of $2065-2145 / ton. The dollar hit a new 20-year high during the week. The matrix of the non-ferrous market was under pressure, and the lead price was mainly downward in the first half of the week. Later, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points, the market sentiment improved, and Lun lead rebounded and quickly rose. Shanghai lead fell first and then rose as a whole, with a trend similar to that of Lun lead.

 

In the domestic market, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season recently, the finished product inventory of enterprises is still high, and the demand for lead ingot procurement is weak. In terms of primary lead, there have been a lot of off-season maintenance by manufacturers recently, and the overall operating rate of the smelter is low due to the tight supply at the mine end. The overall performance is weak in both supply and demand. In the off-season, the lead ingot market demand is weak. The recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range fluctuation trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

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This week, the zinc price fluctuated and fell

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell violently this week, and the zinc market fell. As of June 20, the zinc price was 25386 yuan / ton, down 2.60% from the zinc price of 26064 yuan / ton on June 12 last weekend; The supply and demand of zinc city were both weak, and the price of zinc fell in shock.

 

Zinc market is weak in both supply and demand

 

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Recently, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting production has decreased, and the supply of zinc in the city has decreased; Recently, the “Beixi” natural gas pipeline has been reduced in operation due to the need for turbine maintenance. In addition, the natural gas output of the free port in the United States has been suspended due to the explosion. The natural gas supply situation in Europe has tightened again, the cost has risen, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start work has decreased, the zinc supply is expected to decline, and the overall zinc supply has declined. Due to the decline in the price of the black plate, the production of galvanized sheet was increased due to the poor sales of enterprises, and the start-up of galvanized sheet enterprises fell month on month; The operating rate of zinc oxide fell slightly month on month due to poor terminal orders; The overall demand for zinc is still weak. The supply and demand of zinc city were both weak, and the price of zinc fell in shock.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

Analysts from the business agency believe that the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak this week, and the support of zinc price rise is weakened; The interest rate hike of central banks intensified the concern of economic growth slowdown, the market risk aversion increased, and the zinc price fell along with the metal plate; Recently, the resumption of production and work in China has been gradually promoted, and the demand of zinc city is expected to recover, but the improvement of demand still takes time, and the short-term demand is still weak. In the future, both supply and demand in the zinc market are weak, and the zinc price is expected to maintain a low shock adjustment.

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According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of June 17. This week, the overall white carbon black market was mainly stable, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. The overall market was stable, with balanced supply and demand. At present, the market supply was normal, and just needed to purchase.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

From June 13 to June 17, the market price of white carbon black was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat,

 

Upstream hydrochloric acid: the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly, and the average market price fell from 287.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 275.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.35%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 19.57%. On June 16, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 72.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 302.50% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now.)..

 

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Chemical industry index: on June 16, the chemical industry index was 1206 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 13.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 101.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, the operating rate is stable, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

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Overview of precious metal spot price trend

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of silver in the early trading on June 16 was 4692.33 yuan / kg, up 1.55% on a daily basis, up 1.08% from the average price of 4927.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.63%.

 

On June 16, the spot market price of gold was 395.24 yuan / g, up 0.23% on a daily basis, down 0.07% from the early average price of 395.54 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.14%.

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

 

On the 16th, the price of precious metal silver increased significantly, mainly based on the recent good demand expectation of silver industry.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

Policy Overview

 

1. domestic news

 

According to the data of the Central Bank of China, at the end of the first quarter of 2022, the total assets of China’s financial institutions were 396.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, of which the total assets of banking institutions were 357.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year; The total assets of securities institutions reached 12.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8% year on year; The total assets of insurance institutions were 25.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. The liabilities of financial institutions were 360.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, of which the liabilities of banking institutions were 327.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; The liabilities of securities institutions amounted to 9.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%; The liabilities of insurance institutions were 22.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year.

 

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The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period.

 

2. international news

 

The Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 13.25%, in line with market expectations.

 

The Swiss central bank raised the policy interest rate from -0.75% to -0.25%, which was the first interest rate adjustment in seven years, and the market expectation remained unchanged.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that it would increase the target range of the policy interest rate federal funds rate from 0.75% to 1.00% to 1.50% to 1.75%. This is the largest single interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since november1994 and the first 75 basis points increase by the Federal Reserve in more than 27 years.

 

The news of interest rate hike was bad for precious metal market, and the news in the early stage was basically digested. After the bad news was realized, the precious metal price began to warm up.

 

Logically, the market expects the U.S. economy to peak. However, due to the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, inflation expectations have risen again. Inflation expectations support precious metal prices to a certain extent. However, the interest rate increase policies of various countries still suppress the long-term trend of precious metal prices.

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