1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3480 yuan / ton, up 0.87% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices rose slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in North China have raised the price of toluene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. There are signs of stabilizing port inventory, but it is still high, and there is still pressure to go to the warehouse. The market supply is still surplus, but the demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream shows signs of improvement, the demand for toluene is slightly improved, the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the overall supply and demand situation tends to be balanced. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia at the OPEC + meeting called for a “cheating country” to cut production, boosting market sentiment, making oil prices rise continuously, leading to a “dramatic reversal” in the crude oil market, the largest weekly increase since June. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.445/barrel to close at $42.49/barrel, up 8.82% from last week.

Downstream, TDI, this week continued to rise, TDI supply is tight, the market quotation continues to rise. Market news: in September, Wanhua chemical’s TDI listing price increased by 2000 yuan / ton to 19000 yuan / ton, and Shanghai BASF TDI’s listing price in September was increased by 4000 yuan / ton to 22000 yuan / ton (barreled). It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain an upward trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 544 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 562 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will usher in an adjustment trend.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling wells, EIA and API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the impact of US dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will usher in an adjustment trend next week.