1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, and the quoted price rose from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1710.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 23.33 yuan / ton or 1.38%, 5.70% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index of 79.53 on September 18.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1740 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1680 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of urea from clear water was 1710 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea have been up and down on the whole this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 2370.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2373.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.14%, 18.16% lower than that of the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly this week, from 3133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.06%, the same as last year On the whole, urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly, rising 0.62% from 5366.67 at the beginning of the week to 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. As the National Day approaches, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.