According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the acetic acid market was weak in November. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3442.50 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3282.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.65% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 5086%.

As of the end of the month, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China in November are as follows:

Region./November 1./November 15./November 30

South China./3400 yuan/ton./3200 yuan/ton./3200 yuan/ton

North China./3300 yuan/ton./3250 yuan/ton./3100 yuan/ton

Shandong./3250 yuan/ton./3250 yuan/ton./3175 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region./3150 yuan/ton./3000 yuan/ton./3050 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Province./3250 yuan/ton./3100 yuan/ton./3150 yuan/ton

In November, the acetic acid market was weak and declined. In the first ten days, the market was basically stable. The price of raw methanol was low, and the cost support was insufficient. Although there was equipment maintenance in the acetic acid market, the downstream demand was low, and the market was not boosted enough, and the acetic acid enterprises’ quotations were temporarily stable; In the middle of the year, the operating rate of acetic acid in the market rose, the inventory of enterprises accumulated, downstream demand was weak, and the price trend of acetic acid fell continuously; The market range fluctuated in the last ten days, and the downstream demand was still sluggish. During this period, some enterprises actively shipped, the inventory pressure eased, and the price of acetic acid rose briefly. However, the overall buyer dominated the market, and the acetic acid market was weak.

The methanol market at the feedstock end was in a wide swing. As of the 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2768.33 yuan/ton, a 2.39% drop compared with the price of 2836.00 yuan/ton on November 1. The price of methanol raw material natural gas continues to fall, methanol cost support is weakened, while downstream construction is low, procurement is limited, and the atmosphere of market negotiation is weak. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited, enterprise inventories are increased, and methanol prices are reduced by shocks.

The downstream ethyl acetate market was weak in November, and the quotation at the end of the month was 3766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.64% compared with 6950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material acetic acid market is weak, the cost support is weak, the downstream side continues to follow up on demand, the enterprise is not enthusiastic about getting goods, the benefits of ethyl acetate are insufficient, the market mentality is bearish, and the ethyl acetate market is weak.

According to the analysts of the business community, the current trading and investment atmosphere in the acetic acid market is weak, the supply side enterprises’ devices operate stably, the market supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand has not improved. In addition, the raw material side’s market is weak, the support is insufficient, and the acetic acid market is lack of good news. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be sorted out, the price trend will be stable, and the specific market supply and demand will change.

In November, the domestic polysilicon market continued the slight decline of last month, with a monthly decline of only 0.56%. As of November 29, the domestic supply price basically maintained the level at the beginning of the month, while the import supply declined slightly, with a range of 3000-5000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy at the end of the month reached RMB 298-30500/ton.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers remains high. The supply was flat in October. The number of orders signed by silicon material manufacturers declined compared with that of last month. The enterprise’s shipment speed slowed down. With the decline of downstream silicon chip prices, the commencement of construction decreased slightly, and the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers weakened. In general, due to the continuous follow-up of downstream demand, silicon materials still maintain a balance between supply and demand.

From the perspective of silicon chips, the price of silicon chips fell this month. On November 24, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the executive price of silicon chips. The price of some models was significantly lower than that in October. The price of P-type M10 single silicon chips fell to 7.42 yuan from 7.54 yuan last month, a decrease of 1.59%. On the 27th, Central also lowered the price of silicon chips, with a heavy drop. The price of p-type and N-type silicon chips fell by 0.33 yuan to 0.47 yuan per chip, a drop of 4.42% to 4.56%. The commencement of silicon wafer is generally stable, and the demand continues to advance.

Terminal demand: the battery chips and components are basically stable this month. The quotation of battery chips is still hovering at a high level, especially the demand for large-sized battery chips is still good. The orders continue to be hot, and the price is relatively rigid, close to the upper limit of the tolerance of terminal components. On the component side, the price changes little. Despite the policy encouragement, due to the epidemic situation and cold weather, the employment and logistics have different degrees of negative impact, and the installation progress has been delayed. In addition, due to the approaching Christmas, the shortage of overseas labor, the decline of installed capacity, and the backlog of overseas component orders.

Future market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from the business community believe that the silicon material fundamentals maintain a balance between supply and demand at present, but in the later period, as some devices are facing production, the supply pressure will increase, and external demand will continue to slow down in the near future or due to the impact of Christmas labor shortage, and domestic installed capacity will also decline due to the impact of winter weather. In addition, domestic regulation and control efforts will increase, resulting in heavy resistance to market rise. It is comprehensively predicted that the silicon material market still has room for further decline.

This week (11.21-25), domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak in the downward trend, and the market was short of good news. The main reason is that the demand is relatively weak, and the support of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol is not strong. According to the monitoring of the business community, butyl acetate fell by 4.50% this week. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate on Friday was 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

First of all, from the cost perspective, acetic acid and n-butanol fluctuated slightly, and the prices of acetic acid and n-butanol rebounded, but with little effort. At present, the prices are still relatively low, which is difficult to provide strong support for downstream butyl acetate. According to the business agency, acetic acid rose 0.37% this week and n-butanol rose 0.7% this week.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid rebounded slightly by 0.38% this week, but the price is still hovering at a low level. The main reason was that the supply was slightly tightened, the acetic acid plant of Shanghai Huayi stopped due to failure, and the export of some regions increased, while the domestic supply declined for a short time. However, the rebound amplitude is small, and the downturn in downstream demand is difficult to support a strong price rise, especially in North China, Northwest China and other regions where demand is weak, and it is difficult to follow up the late rise.

From the perspective of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows a relatively prominent pressure of supply and demand, and the market shows that both supply and demand are not strong. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, and the market operating rate is still below 40%. The supply pressure is not large. This week, the prices of butyl acetate manufacturers remained at last week’s level. Downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading and investment atmosphere is not good, and most businesses are bearish.

Future market forecast: In the short term, the cost of butyl acetate is unlikely to be good in the later period, and the weak shock will continue if the supply and demand are not strong or the market is plagued for a long time. In the near future, attention should be paid to the price trend of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol, as well as the commencement of downstream plants.

Business agency: SBR market fluctuated in a narrow range in November

The market of styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated in a narrow range in November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 10908 yuan/ton, down 1.50% from 11075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The highest point in the month was 11075 yuan/ton, the lowest point was 10641 yuan/ton, and the amplitude was 3.91%. At the beginning of the month, the downstream gas buying was sluggish, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was significantly lowered, and the offer of merchants fell with each other. With the weakening of supply side pressure and the increase of downstream inquiries, the SBR market fluctuated steadily and slightly. As of November 25, the quotation of styrene butadiene rubber 1502 in Qilu/Jihua/Fushun and other markets in East China was between 10,900 yuan and 11,300 yuan/ton; In 1712, the mainstream report was 9800~10100 yuan/ton.

The commencement of styrene butadiene rubber industry in November decreased compared with that in October, and the pressure on the supply side of styrene butadiene rubber eased. According to the business agency, Li Changrong’s 50000 t/a styrene butadiene unit will stop on November 4, and will restart in early December; Zhejiang Weitai 100000 t/a styrene butadiene unit will be shut down for maintenance on November 20, and the maintenance is planned to last one month. Shenhua Chemical’s 180,000 t/a styrene butadiene unit is planned to reduce its load to 20% to 30% in mid December;

In November, the prices of butadiene and styrene, the raw materials of styrene butadiene rubber, both fell, and the cost fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, the price of butadiene was 6763 yuan/ton, down 11.05% from 7603 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of November 25, the price of styrene was 7950 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from 8308 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the natural rubber market fluctuated and rose, with stronger support for styrene butadiene rubber. As of November 25, the price was 12016 yuan/ton, up 4.22% from 11530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The commencement of tires in major downstream consumer industries in November was slightly lower than that in October. According to the business community, the commencement of all steel tires in Shandong in the middle of November was around 5.0%, and the commencement of semi steel tires was 5.9% (the commencement load in the middle of October was 5.2% and 6.5% respectively), which had weak support for styrene butadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the supply side pressure eased in November, and Shenhua plans to significantly reduce the negative operation in December. It is expected that the supply side pressure of styrene butadiene rubber will drop again later; But the price of raw materials is low; If there is no bright spot on the demand side, it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will still be difficult to improve in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, and the number of enterprises whose prices fell gradually increased. As of November 24, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 581000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the average price of 587000 yuan/ton on November 20. On November 24, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 597,000 yuan/ton, down 1.16% compared with the average price of 604,000 yuan/ton on November 20.

From the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices still showed a downward trend this week, and the market showed a downward expectation. In terms of supply, the products of major mainstream manufacturers are mainly based on long-term cooperation. In order to ensure supply, there is basically no external goods. However, as the temperature gradually decreases in winter, salt lake enterprises in Qinghai may be affected by this, and the price of lithium carbonate may play a supporting role.

In terms of demand, the end market rush in the fourth quarter came to an end, and the demand for power end market weakened and the heat gradually decreased. It is understood that the output of downstream cathode material plants and lithium iron enterprises has declined, which has also driven the overall demand for lithium carbonate to weaken. The market procurement is in a state of rigid demand, and the mood is still mainly wait-and-see.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of spodumene in the upstream is high, which still supports the cost. At present, the spot market is dominated by just in demand transactions, but with the reduction of downstream battery plants, the ternary demand situation is not as expected, and the price of lithium hydroxide is mainly stable for the time being.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is stable. Recently, the overall price trend of lithium salt and iron phosphate, the two main materials of lithium iron phosphate, is stable, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate is stable. At present, the demand for lithium iron at the energy storage end is still high. However, under the strong uncertainty of future demand, some lithium iron enterprises have tightened production scheduling and are cautious in purchasing.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business community believe that the market’s willingness to receive goods is relatively conservative due to the weakness of downstream demand in the near future, and the loose market quotation has led to the rising of market gaming sentiment. However, due to the weakening of the market output in winter and the support of the high auction price of the ore end, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 5875.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 5850.00 yuan/ton, down 0.43%, and the price rose 0.43% year on year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell slightly this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market declined in the past two months, and the decline in the market this week was slightly slower. Recently, new sources of imported potassium chloride are being supplemented, but the supply of special varieties in some regions is slightly tight. The downstream demand is not good, and the purchase of just needed goods is maintained. The potassium nitrate shipment is not smooth, and the market is down. According to the statistics of the business society, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fallen, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase of just needed potassium chloride is the main demand, and the market turnover is poor. At present, the sales price of 60% domestic potassium crystals in the market is mostly 3400-3800 yuan/ton. The price of 57% of the powder in Qinghai small factories is 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade areas is 3300-3400 yuan/ton. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is mostly 3450-3600 yuan/ton (the price drops by 50 yuan/ton). The price of large particles at the port is mostly 3450-3500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, new orders for border trade of potassium chloride have not been signed, and the supply of goods may be short, but the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will decline mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has not changed much, and the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable. On November 20, the rare earth index was 628 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.64% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and 131.73% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have not changed much, and some prices have declined slightly. As of the 21st, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 787500 yuan/ton, up 0.32% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 650000 yuan/ton, up 0.39% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 720000 yuan/ton, which is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is stable; The price of praseodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, which is stable this week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 665000 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 1.48%%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises is overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The procurement is poor, and the market situation of light rare earths is weak. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited, and the production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the transportation is relatively difficult, and the spot supply has decreased. Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, dealers’ difficulty in shipping, and the rare earth market remains weak.

The price of dysprosium series of heavy rare earth in China rose slightly. As of the 21st, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.3 million yuan/ton, up 1.77% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.285 million yuan/ton, with a 1.56% increase; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.97 million yuan/ton, up 1.02%; The domestic price of terbium has declined slightly. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 13.1 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.45 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth is mainly stable. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other regions is reduced. Production enterprises are gradually starting to work. The supply of heavy rare earth is increased. The price of heavy rare earth has not changed much. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the market price of heavy rare earth remains high.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the decline in the domestic rare earth market was limited.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are in sustainable development. In the short term, the epidemic situation in some regions is repeated, the downstream procurement is limited, and the orders of magnetic material manufacturers are poor. The downstream businesses mainly digest the inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of the possibility of recovery.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.09%. A year-on-year drop of 25.27%. On November 20, the isooctanol commodity index was 68.14, unchanged from yesterday, 50.44% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and 93.85% higher than the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7330.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7230.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.36%, 4.87% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 10030.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.70% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.96%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream demand is increased, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In late November, the market of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream propylene market declined slightly and cost support weakened. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, and downstream demand was good. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 18, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 17720 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 17500 yuan/ton on November 13, 2022, the price decreased by 220 yuan/ton, or 1.26%. On November 18, the domestic silicone DMC market price was near 17300-18500 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.13-11.18), the overall domestic silicone DMC market rose slightly. At the beginning of this week, the quotation of organic silicon DMC of Shandong Dachang increased slightly by 100 yuan/ton, to about 17300 yuan/ton. Most other factories kept their quotations steady, and the supply and demand of the market did not change much. Near the weekend, some organic silicon DMC suppliers raised the price of organic silicon DMC, with an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, the main driving force behind the slight recovery of silicone DMC market comes from the following two aspects:

In terms of cost, at present, the raw metal silicon market is still at a high level, and the support given to organic silicon DMC at the cost end is still strong. Short term silicone DMC is less likely to decline significantly.

On the macro level, the current domestic logistics and transportation have returned to normal, and the “macro good news” will also bring a positive boost to the silicone DMC market.

On the supply side, the supply side has actively adjusted the contradiction between supply and demand in the silicone DMC market. With the supply adjustment, the confidence of the industry has recovered.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

Recently, the shock price adjustment of Shandong’s big factories has also stimulated mostly the downstream just needed orders. At present, the demand side of the silicone DMC market is still generally supported, and the game on the supply and demand side of the market still exists. The silicone DMC data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is difficult to see the trend of sharp rise and fall, and the market mostly adjusts the range to narrow range. More attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10100 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10066 yuan/ton, down 0.33%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the decline of PS (polystyrene) market continues. Styrene opens at a high price, but it has limited impact on the market

The raw material surface continues to vibrate in the box, the on-site trading atmosphere is not good, the downstream procurement is lack of interest, the merchant shipping resistance still exists, and the firm offer is flexible and profitable. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 9350-10900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 10100-11300 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

PS market turnover is light, and short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market is expected to be weak and deadlocked.