1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, on August 1, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8650 yuan / ton, and on August 30, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8583 yuan / ton. The domestic phosphoric acid price fell by 0.77% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the market price of phosphoric acid fell first and then rose. The decline of phosphoric acid in the month was 0.77%. In the first half of August, the market was dominated by negative factors, and phosphoric acid opened the decline mode, with a decline of 8.44%. The price of raw yellow phosphorus continued to fall, and the cost support was weak. Phosphoric acid manufacturers have lowered their prices for shipment. Under the downward trend of the market, the downstream is mainly based on demand, and the dealers operate with caution. In the second half of August, the raw material yellow phosphorus strengthened, and phosphoric acid began to rise continuously, with an increase of 8.10%. Due to power limitation and cost increase in Sichuan, most manufacturers suspended orders and dealers’ quotations increased. The supply of phosphoric acid is tightened, and the favorable factors in the field are increased. As of August 30, the reference price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was about 8583 yuan / ton, and the reference price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid was about 8000 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8600 yuan / T, Hubei is about 8700 yuan / T, Yunnan is about 8800 yuan / T, and Jiangsu is about 9000-9500 yuan / T.

Phosphate rock. In the middle and early ten days of August, the domestic medium and high-grade phosphate ore market continued to be consolidated and operated at a high level. The on-site supply was still tight, and the downstream demand was mainly based on demand. Near the end of the month, after the downstream phosphate fertilizer market turned cold, the terminal demand support of the phosphate ore market was loosened, and the market price in the field was weaker than that in the previous period. On August 22, some mining enterprises with higher prices in the previous period slightly reduced the price of 30% phosphate rock by 50-80 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the field was narrowed. As of August 30, the market price of 30% phosphate ore in China was near 1068 yuan / ton, The specific price is also related to factors such as powder to block ratio. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 850-980 yuan / ton. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. At present, the market of phosphate rock quarry is light, and the downstream purchase is moderate, and the transaction is generally general.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased. In the first half of the month, the market situation was light, the market sales was general, and the downstream enterprises pressed the price to purchase, which depressed the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market, and the yellow phosphorus market was weak. In the second half of the month, power supply in Sichuan was limited and yellow phosphorus enterprises were shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. Yellow phosphorus prices began to rise sharply. Up to now, the quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus factory is about 32333.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the overall market trading of yellow phosphorus was general, and downstream enterprises were more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus. The market transactions were weak, the prices of traders were slightly lowered, and the yellow phosphorus manufacturers were mainly supportive.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of business association, the market trend of phosphoric acid in August changed with the market of raw materials, and continued to rise after a continuous decline. Recently, the yellow phosphorus price of raw material has stabilized after strengthening, and the cost support is favorable. After the end of power limitation in Sichuan, the supply of phosphoric acid increased. The downstream is mainly based on prudent procurement, and the market remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw material market.

Price trend

According to the data of the business community’s bulk list, the POM market fell this month, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of August 29, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 16100 yuan / ton, up or down by – 12.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, in August, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province surged, and the increase was concentrated at the end of the month. As of August 29, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1280 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic cost support has improved, and the downstream plate factory has maintained the just needed purchase. In order to make profits, the formaldehyde manufacturers have led to increase the price, and the formaldehyde market has risen.

The upstream formaldehyde market fluctuated and rose, and the POM cost side support was acceptable. In terms of industrial load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently. The load of Yankuang and Yuntianhua increased and decreased in the middle and late of this month. However, the overall operating rate of the industry is stable at about 80%, resulting in strong competition in the supply market. The inventory of manufacturers and midstream is high, and the off-season market continues. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The lag of POM consumption continues. The petrochemical plants collectively reduce the ex factory price in the latter half of the month, resulting in the monthly decline concentrated in the latter half of the year. The main support point of the current spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing operations, mainly taking small orders for goods. They are resistant to high-priced goods, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the prices of merchants follow the decline of manufacturers.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market fell this month, the upstream formaldehyde market fluctuated and rose, and the POM cost support was acceptable. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of supply side is poor. Downstream enterprises are slow to digest the source of goods, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the price of POM will continue to be adjusted weakly due to the continuous contradiction between supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10850 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10650 yuan / ton, down 1.84% and 2.59% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the price of PS market is falling, the interest of downstream purchasing is low, it is difficult to improve the transaction, and most of the real offers give up profits. Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 reported 9800 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 reported 12120 yuan / ton, and 8250 reported 9620 yuan / ton; Ningbo Taihua 535n reported 9630 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p was short, and Thailand Petrochemical 150 was out of stock.

Crude oil fell, styrene continued to go up, PS petrochemical manufacturers mainly stabilized the price, the trading atmosphere was weak, and merchants were cautious. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 9350-10900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10150-11600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the downstream demand of PS is cold, and it is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will rise or fall in a narrow range.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 25, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8666 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8216 yuan / ton), the price base was increased by 450 yuan / ton, or 5.48%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that since August, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole has been rising in shock. In the first ten days of August, the overall trend of the domestic n-propanol market tends to be adjusted. The suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong province adjust their prices according to their own inventory and other factors. As of August 15, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is around 7500-7650 yuan / ton. At the end of August, the market price of n-propanol rose as a whole. Shandong n-propanol manufacturers steadily increased the ex factory price of n-propanol, driving the market price of n-propanol to move steadily upward. As of August 25, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 8200-8400 yuan / ton, with a half month increase of 5.7%. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol in the site is normal, and the downstream purchase is mainly based on demand. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the price change of raw materials and shipment situation in the future.

Forecast of n-propanol future market trend

At present, the downstream demand side of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the performance of the supply and demand side is relatively good. The n-propanol data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be adjusted in multiple ranges, and more attention should be paid to the changes of the supply and demand side.

The domestic methanol market was shaken and sorted out, and the overall trading situation was deadlocked. At present, the supply and demand of the methanol market are weak, and traders are mostly cautious and wait-and-see.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 15 to 22, the average price of domestic methanol market fell from 2462 yuan / ton to 2458 yuan / ton, falling first and then rising, with a warming trend. During the period, the price decreased by 0.15%, the price increased by 0.46% month on month and decreased by 4.61% year on year.

As of the closing of August 22, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated narrowly. The ma2301 contract opened at 2440 yuan / ton, the highest price was 2503 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 2429 yuan / ton, and the last price was 2488 yuan / ton, an increase of 46 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of ma2301 contract was 1029500 lots, a decrease of 186100 lots compared with the previous trading day.

As of August 22, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions is as follows:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2340-2350 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2600 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian Province, 2440-2480 yuan / ton

Two lakes region. About 2505-2550 yuan / ton

Anhui Province, 2450-2500 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 2550 yuan / ton

In terms of units, Yankuang Guohong 640000 T / A and Shaanxi Shenmu 600000 T / a units are planned to be overhauled, but Inner Mongolia Rongxin 900000 T / A, Inner Mongolia Xinao 600000 T / A, Sichuan Lutianhua 400000 T / A, Xinxiang Zhongxin 300000 t / A, Inner Mongolia Shilin 300000 t / A and Inner Mongolia Yigao 300000 t / a units are planned to be restored.

The price of products in the methanol industry chain fluctuated. The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, was stable, while the price of coal increased in a narrow range. The cost of methanol was strongly supported; The price of the downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; Among the related products, the price of Shandong glycol dropped the most.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on August 22, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 351.00-352.00 USD / T. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 105.50-106.50 cents / gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 357.50-358.50 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 351.00-352.00 USD / T, 0 USD / T

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 105.50-106.50 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 357.50-358.50 euro / ton, – 1 euro / ton

The international oil price fluctuates around us $90 / barrel, the supply has not been restored, and the load of the downstream product olefin unit may be increased. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the domestic methanol market may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Price trend of 441 # silicon

The price rise of metal silicon narrowed this week. As of August 19, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 22400 yuan / ton, up 16.97% over last week.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on December 12 is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu port area is 22300-22500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 22400 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin port is 22400-22500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 22450 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 22000-22200 yuan / ton, with an average of 22100 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 22000-22100 yuan / ton, with an average of 22050 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Shanghai is 23000-23100 yuan / ton, and the average price is 23050 yuan / ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

The main reason for the sharp rise in the price of metal silicon is the epidemic situation and power limitation in Sichuan. Under the rigid demand of the downstream, the two main production areas have stopped production and shut down their furnaces, and the supply of metal silicon is expected to exceed the demand.

Downstream procurement is cautious

The price of organosilicon DMC is rising. The market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions is 20680 yuan / ton. The price of aluminum alloy adc112 rises slightly. The mainstream price is 18500 yuan / ton. The price of polycrystalline silicon continues to rise, and the increase slows down slightly. Limited production at the supply side has led to an increase in the reluctance of silicon enterprises to sell and support prices, and the market price of silicon prices is also more chaotic. The fear of high prices in the downstream has increased, and the procurement pace has slowed down,

Future forecast

Metal silicon is in the stage of panic rise, and many factors such as power and production restrictions have led to an increase in downstream transactions. However, the rigid demand of downstream enterprises is limited. At present, some traders have basically ended their purchase and hoarding in advance. The rapidly rising silicon price has also increased users’ fear of high prices, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downward. Business analysts believe that the short-term power and production restrictions will continue, and the quotation of silicon plants will remain strong. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will be adjusted at a high level.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride decreased slightly this week, with the price falling from 5133.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 4950.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.57%. This week, the factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is 4480 yuan / ton. On August 21, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 128.95, down 1.31 points from yesterday, down 10.91% from 144.74 points (June 21, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 33.34% from 96.71 points on September 16, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride dropped slightly: the factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 4900 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4950 yuan / ton, which decreased by 250 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4400-4800 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% of the port red particles is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton. 62% of Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4500-4600 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate dropped slightly this week, from 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9550.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 2.30%, up 15.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate dropped slightly, from 7050.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6850.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 2.84%, up 18.61% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future forecast

In late August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by a narrow fluctuation. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge was adjusted at a high level. The downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened. It was mainly based on purchasing. The international price of potash fell slightly. The potassium chloride analysts of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

This week (August 15-19), the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business agency, acetic acid fell by – 6.61% this week, with an obvious decline. At present, the supply pressure of acetic acid is obvious. At the beginning of this week, most of the plants operated stably, and the supply increased. Under the pressure of inventory, the manufacturers reduced the price and arranged the stock. In the middle of the week, the major factories in East China and Henan had equipment maintenance. In addition, local power supply was limited, and some enterprises reduced their negative production. At the weekend, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and stabilized. The price of acetic acid at the weekend is about 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week (August 15-19), domestic ethyl acetate was in weak operation. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 0.24%. The decline of ethyl acetate at the beginning of the week was mainly affected by the negative cost brought by the decline of raw acetic acid. The successive price reductions of major domestic factories have also brought negative sentiment to the market. Near the weekend, the prices of major factories in East China and Shandong have rebounded, and the market has a tendency to build a bottom. The market transaction situation is good. Due to the psychology of low-price bottom hunting in the downstream, the transaction volume has slightly increased. However, from the terminal point of view, the orders in August are still insufficient and the demand is relatively weak, which is still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 6800-7100 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (8.15-19), domestic butyl acetate continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of butyl acetate was 4.25%. On the one hand, the cost is bad and acetic acid is low. The market remained short. It is worth noting that the price of n-butanol rebounded this week, with a range of 3.54%. In the later period, with the cost conduction, it may give a certain boost to butyl. In terms of unit operation, the operation rate of butyl enterprises remains low, but under the influence of weak demand, the market transaction is not good. The market supply remains within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the unit is low. There is not much pressure on the supply. Butyl acetate remains weak because the downstream demand is relatively weak. Superimposing the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream price of butyl acetate at the weekend was 7500-7900 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that since August, the acetic acid industrial chain has been relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid is still obvious, which has a great impact on the whole industrial chain. However, the downstream products are slightly differentiated. Ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride, etc. are still falling due to the weakness of cost and supply and demand, but the decline shows signs of slowing down, indicating that the recent acetic acid industrial chain has the possibility of bottoming out and stabilizing.

5、 Future prospect of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain is still in weak operation. On the one hand, it is due to the weak cost of raw material acetic acid in the upstream. However, as many units enter into maintenance, the plant may continue to reduce load or stop production for maintenance in the later period due to the pressure of power limitation. The supply pressure is expected to be relieved in the later period, and the acetic acid may also have a bottom, which may have a certain positive impact on the downstream. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester will also stop falling and stabilize as the supply declines. However, the pattern of weak terminal demand is difficult to change. Therefore, the acetic acid industry chain may rebound, but the space is not large. In general, the acetic acid industry chain is expected to bottom out in the stalemate in the latter half of the year.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong is weak and consolidated. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1213.33 yuan / ton. The current price is the same month on month, and the current price has dropped by 10.12% compared with last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has been weak and consolidated. From the above figure, it can be seen that the market of formaldehyde in the past month has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the recent market is basically stable. As of August 18, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1220 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level, the transaction was general, and the traders just needed to replenish, so the mood was poor. The cost support is general, the downstream operating rate has not been greatly improved, the just needed purchase is maintained, the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments, and the market is weak.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has declined in a narrow range. The production cost of methanol may be reduced, the supply of methanol will not be reduced, and the downstream demand will be the main one. Crude oil is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand changes are limited. The cost is supported or weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The methanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in the short term would be dominated by sluggish consolidation.

This week, crude oil continued to decline sharply, and methanol futures fell in tandem. The cost support is general, the commencement of the downstream plate factory is not improved, the demand for formaldehyde is limited, the formaldehyde manufacturer normally ships, the market transaction is light, and the formaldehyde market is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has fallen, and the demand of the downstream wood panel plants is weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the business community chemical branch predict that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 5925.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black was mainly in stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. This week, the white carbon black overall market was mainly in stable operation, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general, the overall market was stable and stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the market supply side is normal, and the purchase is just needed.

The market price of white carbon black is stable. Compared with the same period last week, there is no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Upstream hydrochloric acid: as of August 5, the market trend of hydrochloric acid has declined, the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has been low, and the cost support is general. The market of downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride has decreased slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention has weakened.

Chemical index: on August 16, the chemical index was 952 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 32.00% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 59.20% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices).