According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the price on May 1st.

 

PVA

The market price of epoxy propane slightly decreased in May. After the holiday, the raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, while the raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated narrowly. The cost support is still acceptable. The spot supply in the East China market is tight, and the inventory pressure in the Shandong market has eased. The overall performance of the demand side is average, and the price of epoxy propane in the market is mainly stable. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and weakened, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine was narrow and weak. Cost support weakened, and some devices on the supply side fluctuated. Inventory pressure was controllable, but downstream buying intentions were average, with a focus on moderate follow-up of just in time demand. The market atmosphere was deadlocked, and holders mainly negotiated with them. In the latter half of the year, some downstream devices have reduced their load, and the demand side lacks follow-up power for epoxy propane. Downstream enterprises are mainly waiting and waiting, and they are willing to take advantage of the situation. As a result, the focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market has weakened. At the end of the month, with strong cost support, prices slightly rebounded.

 

Upstream propylene: In May, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the price of propylene was 6860.6 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.88% compared to the price of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st. Limited support for the epoxy propane market.

 

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is obvious, and downstream low price follow-up is still acceptable. The market’s wait-and-see attitude still exists, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market may be narrow and strong in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market prices declined in May. The rare earth index was 379 points on May 30, a decrease of 23 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 62.36% from the highest point of 1007 points (2022-24) in the cycle, and an increase of 39.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all decreased. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 382500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.56%; The price of neodymium metal is 480000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 387500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.91% in price; The price of praseodymium metal was 520500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.51% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 465000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.92% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 372500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.45%.

 

The domestic heavy rare earth market prices have declined, with dysprosium oxide prices dropping by 4.69% to 1.93 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.57 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% in price; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.9 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0% in price; The price of metallic terbium is 7.5 million yuan/ton, while the price of oxidized terbium is 6.175 million yuan/ton, and the prices of all products have declined.

 

In May, the domestic rare earth market prices fell, and due to weak terminal demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The performance of the metal market is relatively calm, with some metal merchants actively lowering prices to attract buyers. There are separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi regions with little change in operating rates and little change in heavy rare earth production; In addition, some magnetic material companies mainly digest inventory and are not actively purchasing, resulting in a decline in rare earth prices.

 

PVA

According to statistics, in April 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870000 and 850000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 36% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and 32.3%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 32.4% of the total sales of new vehicles. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing support for the rare earth market.

 

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. The export volume of rare earths in April was 4566 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%; The total export volume of rare earths from January to April was 18049.5 tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The import volume of rare earths in April was 13145.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%; The total import volume of rare earths from January to April was 48842.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. The slight decrease in exports has to some extent suppressed the domestic rare earth market prices.

Market forecast: Downstream magnetic material companies have been inactive in recent times, with cold inquiries and strong bearish sentiment on the market. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

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After experiencing a continuous decline in the first quarter, the adipic acid market stopped falling and rebounded in April. In May, the market continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 31, the monthly increase in adipic acid was 2.61%, and the market trading center has significantly shifted upwards. By the end of the month, the market price range for adipic acid was between 9650 and 9850 yuan/ton, an increase of about 200 yuan compared to the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is the positive cost boost and the relief of supply pressure.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Industrial chain

 

The above chart shows that the adipic acid industry chain has significantly improved this month, with a focus on growth, especially in upstream products such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone. Adipic acid is often driven up by costs. Downstream demand is sluggish, and product trends have not changed significantly. PA66 operates in a stalemate. Maintain in a relatively weak range.

 

Cost side: Both pure benzene and cyclohexanone have increased

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has increased this month, with a growth rate of 5.23%. Since the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene has been rising, and the market has seen a significant increase in the latter half of the month. As the end of the month approaches, the price of pure benzene in East China ranges from 9000 to 9100 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone has also risen this month, with an increase of 2.52%. Overall, the cost side is mostly favorable.

 

Supply side: Temporary maintenance of equipment, supply pressure relief

 

PVA

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of adipic acid continued to decline in the first half of this month, dropping to below 40%. Except for the devices that entered the maintenance period last month, some devices this month were temporarily inspected and cleaned, resulting in production damage and a slight decrease in supply. The supply side has transitioned from loose to tight. There are still many devices under maintenance in June, and it is expected that the production will still be mainly low.

 

Demand side: Downstream demand remains mainly sluggish

 

Adipic acid downstream still shows lukewarm and lukewarm behavior. The caprolactam and TPU industries are still performing poorly. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and there has been no improvement in orders to ensure normal start-up demand. Taking PA66 as an example, according to the monitoring of Business Society, the decline of PA66 this month was 6.94%. The market is hovering at the bottom. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang Province was around 21500-22000 yuan/ton. At present, weak demand is the fundamental reason why adipic acid has not been able to continue its upward trend.

 

Future prospects

 

Business Society Adipic Acid Analyst believes that on the cost side, there is a high probability of high volatility in crude oil in the future, which will bring cost advantages to downstream chemical products. The prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone continue to rise, and there is currently no stopping trend in prices. Adipic acid still has an advantage in terms of future cost. From the perspective of supply and demand, both supply and demand will be weak in the future, and the supply side will maintain low operating rates. Manufacturers generally lower operating rates to stabilize the profit range of adipic acid prices. The sluggish demand side will continue, and overall, there is still room for further increase in adipic acid, but the increase should be somewhat compressed.

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The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated in late May

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

This week, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated after stabilizing and rebounding last week. According to data from Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4526.67 yuan/ton, which is 0.3% higher than the average price of 4513.33 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 24. The prices for each region are as follows:

 

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4450-4580 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4250 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

 

Positive inventory vs weak demand

 

PVA

In late May, the landed price of imported ethylene glycol from overseas slightly increased, and currently the port inventory is still in a state of destocking. As of May 30th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 725100 tons, which is 869100 tons compared to the inventory on April 29th, and 144000 tons have been destocked.

 

In May, the price of ethylene glycol began to stabilize, mainly due to changes in the news. Overseas production in the Middle East and North America has decreased, supply has contracted, and port forecasts have decreased, breaking previous expectations for import growth; Another reason for the decline in port inventory is due to the previous consumption of hidden inventory, which has accelerated port shipments recently and has begun to shift towards consumption of explicit inventory.

 

In terms of downstream actual demand, the polyester sector has recently seen a decline in operating rates. On the one hand, due to the downward shift in profits in the polyester industry, some categories have incurred losses, and factories have a weak willingness to operate.

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