According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5175.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5112.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%. The current price has dropped by 14.22% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In February, the domestic potassium nitrate market declined. As can be seen from the above chart, the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and declining for three consecutive months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material market is fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. After the Spring Festival holiday, there is sufficient supply of potassium nitrate, and transactions are light. Prices continue to decline with the decline in costs. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 4800-5000 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in February was downward. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, there is sufficient supply of imported potassium, and the price of 62% white potassium is mostly between 2430-2450 yuan/ton, with poor cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rebound from the bottom in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong fell from 12425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12400 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.20%. Weekend prices increased by 30.07% year-on-year.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have seen fluctuations in their quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has fluctuated and risen this week, with prices rising from 6843.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6853.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.51% in weekend prices. At the beginning of the week, downstream work resumed gradually after the new year, but demand follow-up was slow, upstream goods were not smooth, and prices continued to fall. In the second half of the week, the price of propylene has dropped to a low level, and downstream profit margins have increased. The enthusiasm for entering the market has increased, and sales have improved, resulting in a rebound in propylene prices.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11710 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.85%, and the weekend price increased by 17.57% year-on-year. The operating rate of downstream DOP enterprises is temporarily stable, and downstream procurement of isooctanol is relatively weak, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Future prospects

In late February, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. But downstream DOP has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this week. On January 29th, the market price of aniline was 10362 yuan/ton, and on February 2nd, it was 10423 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.58% compared to last week and decreased by 2.88% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, the market remained strong at a high level in the atmosphere of filling the gap at the end of the month. The transaction in East China was between 8050-8190 yuan/ton, and it strengthened to 8250 yuan/ton in the night session. The receiving sentiment in the Shandong market has weakened, and some businesses have turned to purchasing low-priced hydrogenated benzene, resulting in a significant decrease in transaction volume. Crude oil prices have fallen, and the delivery period in January has ended. Currently, downstream profits are deviating, and it is expected that the market will most likely open in the morning with a downward trend. On Friday (February 2nd), the price of pure benzene was 8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91% from last week and 12.99% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On January 29th, the price was 2033 yuan/ton, and on February 2nd, the price was 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.98% from last week and a decrease of 20.5% from the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

Some aniline factories are planning maintenance, and the spot supply of aniline in the market is tight. The inventory pressure of aniline factories is relatively small, and it is expected that the price of aniline will remain stable and rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from January 29th to February 4th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16166 yuan/ton to 16200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.21% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 4.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.34%. The domestic aggregated MDI market tends to follow closely, with actual order follow-up significantly weakened compared to the previous period as the Spring Festival holiday approaches. Logistics transportation is approaching its end, with concentrated delivery as the main focus, and new order follow-up is relatively limited.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The price of domestic pure benzene has significantly increased. The increase in production is limited, and downstream factory inventories are low. As of February 4th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7967.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic price of aniline is stable, with a slight increase, and cost support is stable. Some aniline factories are planning to shut down for maintenance, while some downstream factories are stocking up in small quantities. The shipment of aniline factories is smooth, and the inventory pressure of factories is reduced, resulting in a slight increase in the price of aniline. As of February 4th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 10425.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, except for the cold industry, most downstream markets are closed and waiting for entry after the holiday. Considering the maintenance of mid to low levels of finished product and raw material inventories before the holiday, the overall follow-up pressure is not significant. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is temporarily affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, with favorable cost support, the overall inventory level remains low. We are waiting for the demand side to follow up and recover after the holiday. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be mainly wait-and-see consolidation.

Recently (1.29-2.2), the price of butyl acrylate has slightly decreased. According to data from Business Society, as of February 2, the average price of butyl acrylate in East China was 9560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from last Monday. The prices in various regions are as follows: the reference price in the East China market is 10000 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 10100 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 10200 yuan/ton;

In the absence of demand support and sustained poor profitability, the production of butyl acrylate has remained at a relatively low level, so there is not much pressure on the industry to accumulate inventory. From the perspective of downstream market operation, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, there may be a certain demand release in the downstream adhesive tape industry, with moderate replenishment. The overall trading rhythm may still be dominated by rigid demand, and there may be less behavior of bulk replenishment in the downstream.

Overall, after entering February, the analyst of Business Society’s butyl acrylate market has limited exploration space due to weak fluctuations in raw materials and shrinking demand. Overall, under the game of cost and demand, the trend of the butyl acrylate industry in February was not significant.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7650 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 7233 yuan/ton), the price increased by 417 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.76%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in January, the overall domestic butanone market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the focus of the butanone market continued to approach high levels. The price of butanone market fluctuated from around 7200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to around 7700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an increase of nearly 6% within the month.

The influencing factors supporting the upward trend of the butanone market:

In terms of cost: In January, the overall high level operation of the post ether C4 market for butanone raw materials provided support for the cost of butanone, and the overall focus of the butanone market was upward.

Demand: The downstream of butanone has started stocking up on the Qixi Festival, and the downstream butanone has been boosted as a whole. The demand also gives some support to the butanone market. As of January 31st, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7600-7900 yuan/ton, and the lower price is around 7400 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is mild, and most downstream markets have basically completed stocking. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall production on the exchange is low, and some scattered small orders in the downstream are moderately stocked. The overall supply and demand transmission on the exchange is relatively quiet. Business Society’s butanone data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market prices are mainly stable and subject to small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of cryolite in Henan Province fell in late January. On January 30th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7750 yuan/ton on January 21st, a decrease of 1.61%.

In late January, the ice crystal market situation was adjusted downwards, and enterprise prices slightly decreased. The continuous decline in upstream raw material prices has a negative impact on the cryolite market. Some cryolite enterprises have lowered their quotations, but due to increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements in the upstream, the difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and spot prices continue to be tight. The overall price is still at a high level in the fluorite industry, which still has a certain cost pressure on the cryolite industry. Most cryolite manufacturers have a strong cost impact on their quotations, At the same time, the downstream market has not followed up well on high priced ice crystals, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. Under the game of supply and demand, the ice crystal market is deadlocked and running smoothly. As of January 30th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 500 yuan/ton within the range.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3343.75 yuan/ton on January 30th, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the price of 3362.50 yuan/ton on January 21st. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some fluorite companies have started to take a break, and their willingness to ship has increased. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and purchasing follows up on demand. The fluorite market continues to decline, weakening support for cryolite costs.

Market forecast: Cryolite raw materials are tight and prices are high, providing cost support. Enterprise quotations are mainly firm, and some prices have been lowered. At the same time, there is resistance from downstream towards high prices, and purchasing in the market is weak. There is a certain sales pressure in the cryolite market, and we are watching upstream prices continue to decline. There are obvious bearish factors on the market, and it is expected that the cryolite market will continue to operate weakly in the later stage. In the future, we will pay attention to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.