1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency: on March 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 7282 yuan / ton, down 13.78% from 8446 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and up 100.05% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the domestic LNG market rose after falling, and the overall decline was about 13% in the month. With the warmer weather, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption, the demand in the North has decreased, and the logistics in some areas has been affected by the holding of the two national games and the Paralympic Games. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, the market supply has increased, and the negative factors have superimposed, resulting in the decline of domestic liquid price. In the middle of the year, due to the small inventory pressure of liquid plants and the increase of demand in the South due to cold air factors, the market trading has improved, and the price has increased slightly, However, the demand follow-up was general and fell rapidly after the rise. In the second half of the month, due to the differences in local liquid prices and more resource outflows, the market was strongly driven up, and the price trend showed an upward trend. At present, the price of the terminal is about 7200-9700 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China is US $30.32/million British heat, and the price is reduced.

According to the weekly rise and fall from January 3, 2022 to March 27, 2022, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic liquefied natural gas show each other in the cycle, start to fall in January, rise sharply after the Spring Festival in February, rise 37.41% in the week of February 7, and then fluctuate in a narrow range.

Price rise of downstream products:

For methanol, the methanol market in central Shandong negotiated to 3030-3050 yuan / ton, the factory offered cash exchange, and the ex factory price of local factories to 3200-3250 yuan / ton. The reference price of methanol in southern Shandong is around 3040 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The reference price of local goods in Linyi is around 3100 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The atmosphere of negotiation was general.

The prices of urea, upstream coal and liquefied natural gas are adjusted at a high level, and the cost support is general. From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the arrival of spring season, the freight of urea is blocked, and the dealers are actively taking in the peak season. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that at present, the inventory of the liquid plant is not under pressure, and the market is pushed up slightly. However, in April, the heating period ends, and the domestic LNG market is expected to stabilize.

DOTP price shocks stabilized in March

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the overall DOTP market fluctuated and stabilized. As of March 29, the price of DOTP was 12400 yuan / ton, up 3.55% from 11975 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. The DOTP market fluctuated and adjusted at a high level, and the DOTP price basically fell back to the level at the beginning of March at the end of the month.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted in March

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the overall isooctanol price fluctuated and stabilized. As of March 29, the price of isooctanol was 12966.67 yuan / ton, up 4.57% from 12400 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in March, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell. Under the influence of the epidemic in late October, the price of isooctanol fluctuated slightly and the cost of DOTP fluctuated. The upward momentum of DOTP remained and the downward pressure weakened.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fluctuated and rose in March, and the overall PTA market recovered. As of March 29, the PTA price was 6227.73 yuan / ton, up 8.74% from 5727 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices were adjusted broadly and PTA prices were adjusted in shock. The price of DOTP is still rising, and the price of DOTP is still rising.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high crude oil price has been adjusted in a wide range, PTA prices have followed the rise, isooctanol prices have been adjusted in a volatile manner, and the rising cost of DOTP remains the driving force. Overall, the price of raw materials rose, the support of cost rise remained, the demand for DOTP was temporarily stable, and the price of DOTP rose. In the future, with the adjustment of raw material price shock, the cost of DOTP rises, and the price shock of DOTP is expected to stabilize in the future.

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4100 yuan / ton on March 1 to 4533.33 yuan / ton on March 16, an increase of 10.57%. After a week of stable operation, it fell to 4466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.90% compared with the same period last year.

On March 27, the calcium carbide commodity index was 117.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.86% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 110.90% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this month: the quotation of calcium carbide at the end of oviganon was 4450 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, Wuhai Zhonglian quoted 4550 yuan / ton of calcium carbide, which increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia at the end of the month was 4400 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

From the k-pillar chart of calcium carbide week, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly in March, and the biggest rise in the second week, with an increase of 3.16%.

Good upstream support and strong downstream demand

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC rose slightly this month. The price of PVC this month rose from 8480.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.54%, an increase of 2.73% year-on-year over the same period last year. The price of 1,4 butanediol fell slightly this month, and the quotation decreased from 28060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 27670.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 1.39%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide rose slightly this month, and the downstream increased their enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Price details of shenmulan charcoal in March

Specifications., March 1, March 16, March 28th

Little stuff, 1450 yuan / ton, 1900 yuan / ton, 1700 yuan / ton

Medium material, 1500 yuan / ton, 1950 yuan / ton, 1750 yuan / ton

Big stuff, 1500 yuan / ton, 1950 yuan / ton, 1750 yuan / ton

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of blue carbon fell slightly this month. The quotation of Shenmu small materials at the end of this month is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this month; The quotation of Shenmu Zhongliao at the end of this month is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this month; The quotation of Shenmu bulk material at the end of this month was 1750 yuan / ton, which increased by 250 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. Shanxi coke market price rose sharply this month. The quotation increased from 2738.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3338.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 21.91%. On the whole, the price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was good, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The upstream support weakened and the downstream procurement was normal. Calcium carbide was bearish in the future

In the middle and early ten days of April, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell, dominated by consolidation. The prices of upstream raw materials coke and blue carbon have declined slightly from a high level recently, and the cost support of calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream 1,4 butanediol market fell slightly, the PVC market was mainly consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand was normal. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early April, dominated by consolidation.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 25, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 16200.00 yuan / ton, down 0.61% from Monday, up 1.04% from February 25, and up 23.04% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The acrylic acid market is weak this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen and the cost support has been strengthened. The operating rate of acrylic acid unit has increased, the downstream continues the rigid demand procurement mode, the demand side is light, the logistics and transportation situation in some regions has improved, the cargo holders have a positive shipping mentality, the downstream is mainly cautious, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened.

Upstream propylene, on the 23rd, Shandong propylene market was consolidated and operated. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 8000-8200 yuan / ton, the price of raw materials stopped falling and rebounded, and the propylene market stopped falling and stabilized under the support of cost. The profit of propylene industry declined, the transportation in some regions was not smooth, the downstream operation was limited, and the demand was insufficient.

According to the acrylic acid analysts of business society, the price of raw material propylene has risen recently, the cost support has risen, the support of market supply and demand is general, and the inquiry and transaction are light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

The domestic bisphenol a market continued to decline this week. First, the logistics was seriously blocked under the influence of the epidemic, and the confidence in buying and selling bisphenol was insufficient. Second, the sharp decline of crude oil during the week increased the negative factors of crude oil pure benzene phenol / acetone, which made it difficult to support the cost side. In addition, the demand of downstream epoxy resin and PC end industries continued to be insufficient, and the procurement was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer in East China was 17100 yuan / ton on March 11 and 16400 yuan / ton on March 18, down 4.09% during the week.

The decline of international crude oil is obvious. The decline of crude oil has a negative impact on the downstream pure benzene and propylene. Both phenol and acetone show a downward trend, the cost side is bad, and the confidence of the industrial chain from top to bottom is frustrated.

This week is still affected by the negative cost side, coupled with the rapid decline affected by the epidemic, and the trading on the floor is not smooth. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the daily offer was 11175 yuan / ton on March 11, and the market offer was 10787 yuan / ton on March 18. The decline was obvious during the week, with a decrease of 3.03%. As of the 18th, the offer in East China market was about 10750 yuan / ton, that in South China was about 10850 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was about 10800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic oil price fell sharply, the cost support weakened, and the domestic acetone market fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business agency, in the East China market, the mainstream offer in East China rose to 6300 yuan / ton on March 10 and fell to 5800 yuan / ton on March 17. In the first half of the week, the domestic epidemic continued to intensify, and the logistics and transportation were seriously blocked. On the one hand, the petrochemical enterprises were blocked from leaving the warehouse, on the other hand, the Jiangyin reservoir area was basically closed, so it was difficult to ship. The acetone market plunged to 5800 yuan / ton during the week, Then, after a rapid decline, the low price intention weakened, and there was no lack of price support. At this time, the crude oil rebounded near the weekend, and the acetone offer in East China rose to 6000 yuan / ton. As of the press date, the negotiation in East China is 6000 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong is 5850 yuan / ton, the offer in Yanshan surrounding areas is 5850 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 6150 yuan / ton.

During the week, the domestic epoxy resin market suffered a setback, and the negotiated price in the liquid resin Market in East China was 26300-27200 yuan / ton (delivered in barrels). Affected by the epidemic, most regions in China were blocked, the mentality of cargo holders was under pressure, and the intention to ship increased.

In the short term, there was no significant positive performance in the upstream and downstream. This week, domestic bisphenol A was auctioned for 15600 yuan / ton on Monday and 15300 yuan / ton on Thursday, which fell during the week. At present, the inventory of cargo carriers is on the high side, and the epidemic will continue to affect the market mentality. The business society expects that the short-term weakness of bisphenol A may continue, focusing on the overall adjustment and operation.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose in shock this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of sample enterprises of business society was 10000.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of sample enterprises was 9020.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.80%. The price increased by 5.29% over the same period last year.

cement

The market price of styrene fell again and again this week. As can be seen from the figure above, the price of styrene has fallen sharply this week after two weeks of continuous rise in recent days. Recently, the supply and demand of styrene is still weak, the downstream receiving mood is negative, the spot transaction of styrene is general, and the price of styrene continues to fall.

In terms of raw materials, the international oil price first fell and then rose. Driven by this, the price of pure benzene first fell. Many domestic public health events affected transportation, blocked factory shipments, and the recent trend of crude oil was downward, and pure benzene weakened with crude oil. Recently, the price of domestic pure benzene is 7800-8250 yuan / ton.

Downstream, the three downstream styrene rose or fell this week. The market price of PS was relatively stable this week, and the average price was 10666.67 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

The EPS market fell, the international crude oil price fell as a whole, the purchasing sentiment of some downstream businesses was weak, the inventory was low, and the terminals with normal production maintained rigid demand. There was more waiting and waiting. The overall trading atmosphere of the EPS market was poor, and the market continued to decline.

The ABS market has declined. Affected by public health events, the demand of ABS market continues to be low, and the overall transaction is general. The ABS market price surges up and falls down. At present, the terminal demand is general, and the market transaction is weak.

The probability of short-term sharp decline of international crude oil is small, and the downstream demand may recover. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory level and market supply. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 21, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 15000.00 yuan / ton, and the price decreased slightly. Compared with the same period last week, the price decreased by 3.23%, or about 500 yuan / ton. In the short term, the trend of DMF is mainly downward.

This week (3.14-3.20), the DMF market fell weakly, with an overall decline of 3.23%. The negotiation focus was weak. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment is slow, the inventory is general, the operating rate is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The manufacturer has successively reduced the price, with a decline of 300-500 yuan / ton,

Upstream methanol is mainly weak and stable, traders have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the demand side is weak. At present, the supply side is sufficient, the shipment is slow, and the price in some regions has declined slightly.

Chemical commodity index: on March 20, the chemical index was 1182 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.57% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 97.66% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business society believe that: in the short term, DMF is dominated by weak operation, and it is possible to continue to decline. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China fell first and then stabilized this week. As of March 18, the average market price in East China was 19225 yuan / ton, down 1.41% during the week and 1.66% month on month compared with 19500 yuan / ton at the end of last week.

During the week, the TDI market was weak and mainly sorted out. In terms of supply, there was little change in the commencement of domestic TDI factories. Gansu Yinguang and Yantai Juli devices have not been restarted. The spot market is tight and the factory’s attitude of supporting prices is the main. During the week, due to the impact of the epidemic in various places, the logistics and transportation are blocked, the terminal demand is weakened, the quotation of dealers is reduced, and the downstream market entry only needs to be followed up. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 18000-19000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 19000-19500 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation will rise with the market news, and will be sorted down within the week.

As of March 18, the operation of TDI plants in China is as follows:

The upstream toluene market fell broadly, and the price continued to fall during the week. As of March 18, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7850 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from the price at the end of last week. The international crude oil fell continuously and broadly, and the cost support weakened. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation in various places, the logistics and transportation were blocked, the transaction in the toluene market was limited, the mentality of the operators was empty, the price decreased continuously, and the aftermarket market was mainly sorted and operated.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business agency, at present, the supply side of domestic TDI market is in short supply, the factory mentality is strong, and the downstream demand response is slightly flat. Under the supply and demand game, the TDI market is mainly in stalemate and consolidation, and the future market trend depends on the downstream follow-up.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 18, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 19266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.17% compared with Tuesday’s price, 1.58% compared with February 18, and 16.06% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene fell, the cost support of propylene method weakened, the price of raw material glycerol was high, the cost support of glycerol method was strong, the output and logistics in some regions were limited, there was no inventory pressure on the spot, the market atmosphere was light, and the market price of epichlorohydrin rose slightly.

Upstream propylene, upstream propylene. According to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene was 8267.17 on March 17, down 1.98% compared with March 1 (8433.83). The propylene market has accelerated its decline recently, the mainstream price of the market has fallen to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, the high international crude oil price has fallen sharply, the downstream polypropylene market is still depressed, the recent domestic rebound in health events has affected the logistics and production in some regions, the on-site trading level has further shrunk, the market situation is bad, and businesses cut prices and take orders.

Downstream epoxy resin: on March 17, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was sorted and put into operation. It was negotiated that it would leave the factory in barrels of 26200-27200 yuan / ton, and the overall negotiation was the same as that of the previous trading day.

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of business society, the cost support of glycerol method is strong at present, coupled with the low inventory supporting the market, the logistics and transportation in some regions are limited, and the demand side performance is flat. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market interest rate guidance.

DBP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP fell sharply this week, and the overall DBP market fell. As of March 17, the price of DBP was 10833.33 yuan / ton, down 8.19% from 11800.00 yuan / ton on March 10 last week, and up 0.62% from 10766.67 yuan / ton on March 1.

The price of butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fell sharply this week, and the market of n-butanol fell. On March 17, the price of n-butanol was 10033.33 yuan / ton, down 9.61% from 11000.00 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. This week, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell sharply, the cost of DBP fell, and the high price of DBP fell.

Phthalic anhydride prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell this week. As of March 17, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8925 yuan / ton, down 2.46% from 9150 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. This week, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DBP fell, the price of DBP fell, the cost support weakened, the rising power of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine has eased, the high price of crude oil has fallen sharply, the high price of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride in the downstream spot market has fallen sharply, the price of raw materials has fallen sharply, the cost of plasticizer DBP has fallen, and the price of DBP has fallen. The price of raw materials fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the price of DBP is expected to fall in the future.