As of June 28, the average factory price of Yayon(30s and ring spinning) was 17620 yuan / ton, down nearly 500 yuan / T compared with June 21, down 2.79%, up 25.72% year on year. Cotton yarn prices continued to fall this week.

On June 27, the Rayon commodity index was 85.04, which was flat with yesterday, down 22.07% from 109.12 (March 12, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and 33.42% higher than the lowest point of 63.74 on September 10, 2020.

From the upstream viscose staple fiber, the price of viscose staple fiber has increased nearly 1 times in half a year from 8300 yuan per ton in August last year to 16000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. Especially after the Spring Festival, prices soared, rising from 12900 / T in early February to 15800 / T, up 22.5%. But since March, the price has gradually stabilized, and the manufacturer’s quotation is basically 16000 yuan / ton. Since April, the market has been weak, the transaction is light, and the price has continued to decline slightly. 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber has fallen 19.8% from 15840 yuan / ton in early April to 15140 yuan / ton at the end of April, and then to 12700 yuan / ton on May 31. From the beginning of April, the market atmosphere of viscose staple fiber is light, domestic demand is general, and export is not optimistic; The trading of viscose filament is weak, the factory inventory increases, the price is loose, and the epidemic has a great impact on India export, and market people are pessimistic about the latter market. After May 1, viscose fiber is still weak. The adhesive factory carries out price reduction promotion, and the transaction volume is large, and the inventory pressure has slowed down.

Business analysts believe that although the number of days of viscose staple fiber inventory held by the people cotton yarn factory is higher than that of the same period last year, it has been declining gradually. From the perspective of the 730 average of business agency, the downward trend of the 7-day average crossing the 30-day average line starts after 2021/3/21, but the current two average lines have a trend of going in the opposite direction. According to the measurement of 2021/6/20, the probability of change of operation situation (i.e. 30 day average on the 7-day average) in the next 7 days is 51.54%.

1、 Price trend

Toluene prices have stabilized this week after a small drop, according to the business agency’s bulk list. On June 20, the price of toluene was 5801 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 27) was 5781 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, or 0.34% from last week; It was 65.17 per cent higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil continued to rise, with good support from external news, but domestic demand for toluene remained weak and prices remained weak. On the external market, as of June 25, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was US $733 / T, up 0.41% in the week, compared with June 18.

On the crude oil side, the market is optimistic about the recovery prospects of crude oil demand, the U.S. crude oil inventory continues to decline, and international oil prices continue to rise. Brent rose $2.71 / barrel this week, or 3.69 percent, on June 18; WTI rose $2.41/barrel, or 3.36 percent.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI prices in East China rose this week, with domestic products of 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 2.72% from last week, up 24.55% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton, up 58.54% year on year. Asia closed at $918-920 / T FOB Korea and $936-938 / T CFR China as of June 25.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, toluene still maintains weak shock in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of crude oil, external market trend, maintenance and maintenance of toluene plant, inventory of toluene port and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene price.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2627.78 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%.

This week, the price trend of fluorite was temporarily stable, the trading of fluorite in the field was weak, the mine was affected by environmental protection supervision, the start-up was insufficient, the price of fluorite raw ore was on the high side, the flotation cost of the concentrator was high, and the flotation plant was unwilling to ship at low price. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry was not high, the demand for fluorite was not improved, and the fluorite plant in the North was gradually started, so the supply was relatively normal, The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and the price trend of fluorite in the market is temporarily stable. The mainstream trend of fluorite negotiation in the venue is temporarily stable. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, that in Fujian is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangxi is 2500-2600 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite price has little change recently.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite market is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10000 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable, which has a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite is stable. The price trend of downstream refrigerant products is stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is not high. In recent years, the sales market of the automobile industry is normal, and the refrigerant market trend is temporarily stable. The demand side mainly purchases on demand, and the trend of the refrigerant industry is stable. However, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, the sales pressure is high, and the operation of the refrigerant industry is low, so the market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited. On the whole, negative factors dominate the refrigerant market, and the prices of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform are lower, which makes the refrigerant industry under pressure. At present, the load of R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, the market price trend is stable, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery situation of goods holders is normal, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-17500 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low load, and the price trend of R134a remains stable. However, the current demand procurement is the main, the downstream enterprises are not high, and the traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-24000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the market trend of downstream refrigerant is stable, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

Overall, the downstream refrigerant industry is temporarily stable, but the recent hydrofluoric acid market spot is slightly tight. In addition, the fluorite market supply is relatively normal. Business community analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may be temporarily stable in the short term.

Zinc price trend stops falling and stabilizes

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc price fluctuated and fell in June. From the 16th to the 21st, the zinc price fell continuously. As of June 22, the zinc price was 21986.67 yuan / ton, down 4.96% from 23133.33 yuan on June 1, and 4.46% from June 16.

International Zinc Market

According to the data released by Kazakhstan Statistics Bureau, the refined zinc output in April 2021 was 25941 tons, 5.3% less than 27391 tons in March; The cumulative output in the first four months of 2021 was 104389 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. According to the report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), the global zinc market will be short of 38000 tons from January to April 2021. In April 2021, the global zinc market consumption was 1.1966 million tons. In April 2021, the global zinc market output was 1146200 tons. As of the end of April 2021, the global zinc market inventory is 151000 tons. In the past 21 years, the output of global zinc market has decreased, and the demand of global zinc market is in short supply; As the first source of China’s Zinc import, Kazakhstan’s refined zinc output has declined, China’s Zinc import is difficult, and the upward pressure of zinc market has increased.

According to the latest customs data released by the General Administration of customs, in April 2020, China imported 40700 tons of refined zinc, with a month on month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 24.2%; 0700 tons of exports, a month on month increase of 16.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 85.1%; In April, the net import of zinc ingots was 40000 tons. From January to April in 2020, the total import was 174200 tons, an increase of 51.6% year on year. Zinc import volume increased, domestic zinc market demand is strong, zinc market has rise support.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: the state’s throwing reserves has stimulated the domestic zinc price to fall sharply continuously. However, from the perspective of supply and demand of the zinc market, the global zinc market is in short supply, and the zinc market is in short supply. However, the domestic zinc market has strong demand, and the overall zinc market is in short supply. The zinc market has price support, and the zinc price has limited space to fall. The state’s throwing reserves can make up for the shortage of domestic zinc market demand, However, the overall decline space of zinc market is limited, and it is expected that the future zinc market will fluctuate and stabilize.

Domestic butadiene market continued to rise. The market is still dominated by the mainstream manufacturers. The high price of the external market rose at the beginning of the week, and Sinopec and other suppliers increased the supply price, which encouraged the businesses to follow the quotation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of June 18, the domestic butadiene market price was 8532 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 24.58% and a year-on-year rise of 144.48%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is 9350-9450 yuan / ton, and the self delivery price in East China is 8850-8950 yuan / ton.

Downstream rigid demand was forced to accept high price supply, transaction improved, supporting the market to strengthen. Although the transaction of sporadic high price offers is limited, under the influence of export news, the middlemen have no intention to lower, the short-term market expectation is strong, and the market performance is relatively strong.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s sales companies increased the supply price of butadiene by 500 yuan / ton to 8400-8900 yuan / ton. Nanjing Chengzhi 100000 t / a butadiene extraction unit has been shut down for maintenance since April 9, and is planned to restart on June 17.

The external supply price of butadiene of main production enterprises is as follows:

enterprise ., Price (yuan / ton)%, plant dynamic

Liaoyang Petrochemical 8200 yuan / ton Stable operation of 30000 T / a butadiene plant

Dalian Hengli 8710 yuan / ton 140000t / a butadiene plant operates stably, and the source of goods is normal for export

Liaotong chemical / No source of goods for online export

Fushun Petrochemical No export Normal operation of 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit

Jiutai, Inner Mongolia / The 70 kt / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit has been shut down for maintenance since April 12 and is expected to last about 20-30 days

Sipang, Jiangsu Province eight thousand and eight hundred Stable operation of 100 kt / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit

Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd eight thousand and five hundred Normal operation of 165000 T / a plant

Shanghai Petrochemical eight thousand and five hundred Normal operation of 120000 T / a plant

Yangzi Petrochemical eight thousand and five hundred Normal operation of 120000 T / a plant

Sinopec eight thousand and five hundred The 200000 t / a plant is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical eight thousand four hundred and fifty 150000 T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Guangzhou Petrochemical eight thousand and five hundred The 30000 T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Wuhan ethylene eight thousand and nine hundred 190kt / a extraction unit operates stably, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

External price: as of June 17, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at US $1185-1195 / T, up US $10 / T; CFR China closed at US $1195-1205 per ton, up US $10 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1695-1705 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1295-1305 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea 1185-1195 USD / T US $10 / T

Asia CFR China 1195-1205 USD / T US $10 / T

Europe FOB Rotterdam US $1695-1705 / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1295-1305 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

The external market continued to be strong, domestic sources of goods actively exported, supply pressure eased, and short-term supply side was supported. Under the strong support of export news, there is no low price source for both internal and external markets, and business analysts expect the market to be high and consolidation oriented.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 67735 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from 70056.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year, and up 43.8% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper fell under pressure in March, closing at US $9219, down 7.75% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index fell sharply to close at 67440 yuan, down 6.24%. The international copper index closed at 59910 yuan, down 6.39%.

The bad news gathered this week. At the beginning of the week, it was rumored that the State Grain and material reserve bureau would put in copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches. It was heard that the related non-ferrous varieties fell one after another. In addition, the state continues to pay attention to the rise in commodity prices. China has stepped up its monitoring of commodity prices and curbed speculative activities to ease the threat of soaring raw material costs to economic recovery. Copper prices have been the first to decline after the festival. After the Hawks’ statement at the meeting of the central and US Federal Reserve last week, the US dollar index continued to rise sharply, while the non-ferrous metal sector suffered a heavy decline. Recently, the center of gravity of copper concentrate processing fees has moved up slightly, suggesting that the supply side tension continues to ease. To sum up, at the turning point from the traditional peak season to the off-season, it is no doubt that the State Reserve’s dumping operation will form a more obvious pressure on copper, and it is expected that the copper price will still be weak in the short term.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (June 16): 12208 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of styrene butadiene rubber was 12208 yuan / ton on the 16th, up 0.55% from the previous day. In June, the price of natural rubber continued to fall, bad for styrene butadiene rubber. At the beginning of this month, the overall start-up of styrene butadiene rubber industry increased, and the supply side pressure increased, which exacerbated the bad atmosphere. The raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was slightly supported. According to the monitoring of the business association, the butadiene price was 8218 yuan / ton on June 15, up 10.19% from 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Last week, the butylbenzene units of Yibang and Jihua were overhauled, which relieved the pressure of butylbenzene supply.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the sharp drop of butylbenzene since April has released some bad risks; on the other hand, the overhaul of Yibang and Jihua plants has also eased the pressure on butylbenzene supply to a certain extent. Overall, SBR is expected to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on June 15 was 3603.333 yuan / ton, up 1.6% compared with that before the festival (on the 11th), down 0.64% compared with that at the beginning of the month, down 8.62% compared with that at the beginning of the month, and up 43.94% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the price of domestic LNG market decreased frequently in the off-season. On the 15th, the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic LNG market turned red in a large area. The price of liquid in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia and other places generally increased, with the range of 30-70 yuan / ton. The price adjustment mentality of liquid plants was more positive, and the overall market stopped falling and turned up. Starting from June 15, the price of raw gas in the direct supply liquid plant of northern PetroChina was 2-2.04 yuan / m3, and the cost price rose, boosting the market atmosphere. At the same time, after the festival, the logistics recovered, the demand for downstream replenishment increased, and the prices were continuously reduced in the early stage. Based on the cost consideration, the price of liquid plants increased after the festival, but restricted by the off-season factors, the increase was not big.

On June 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was booming, with 3500-3650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3580-3740 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3650-3750 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3560-3630 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3750-3850 yuan / ton in Henan and 3620-3730 yuan / ton in Hebei. The liquid prices in various regions were increased to varying degrees.

region Specifications Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3500-3650 June 15th

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3580-3740 June 15th

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3650-3750 June 15th

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3560-3630 June 15th

Hebei liquified natural gas 3620-3730 June 15th

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3750-3850 June 15th

Downstream products are mixed:

Methanol, the main closing price of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on June 15 was 2514 yuan / ton, up 2.57% in the day. The atmosphere of domestic methanol spot market is warming up. Before the festival, some traders make up for the air and the downstream goods to support the mentality of the industry. After the festival, the new prices in Northwest China may be relatively strong, and at present, they are generally bullish. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 15, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2535 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 7.06% and a year-on-year increase of 56.48%. Crude oil is strong and the market mentality is good. Methanol analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

Urea, in the middle of June, the market of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand has declined, the industrial demand has risen slightly, and the urea supply is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be in short supply in the short term, but the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

Dichloromethane, on June 15, the market quotation of methane chloride in Shandong area was slightly adjusted, and the quotation of manufacturers was adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 3970 ~ 4050 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 4350 ~ 4440 yuan / ton. A small number of downstream inquiries were received. The price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong is strong, and the cost is supported by dichloromethane; In addition to the current low inventory of methane chloride, it is expected that dichloromethane will continue to be high and strong in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: after the Dragon Boat Festival, logistics recovery, downstream replenishment demand increase, at the same time, the price of raw gas rises, the cost support is strong, coupled with the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the liquid plant is in a strong price support mood after the festival based on the cost consideration, and it is expected that it will continue to push up in the short term, but in the off-season, the power to continue to rise is insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic price of vitamin C rose this week, with the price of 50 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 50.33 yuan / kg at the end of the week, up 0.66%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of vitamins rose slightly this week, but the downstream did not buy it. The market transaction atmosphere was general. Manufacturers mainly finished the orders of old customers, and mostly stopped quoting and did not receive new orders. The price of traders is stable, and the downstream consumption does not increase significantly. In summer, the temperature rose, and the manufacturer began to plan maintenance. On the whole, the price of raw materials such as corn in the upper reaches rose, and the support from the lower reaches was insufficient, which led to the flat performance of vitamin C market this week and the lack of rising power.

3、 Future forecast

Vitamin C analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think: in general, the overall supply of vitamin C market is still greater than the demand, and the sufficient production capacity leads to the difficulty of rising the price of domestic VC market. It is expected that the vitamin C market will run steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 7, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14500 yuan / ton, which was increased by 700 yuan / ton or 5.07% compared with the price on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton).

In June, the domestic n-butanol market gradually recovered, and the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong Province continued to rise. In 2, 3 and 4 days, the cumulative price rise of n-butanol market was 500-1000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, supported by some delays in construction, the spot supply of n-butanol plants was tight, the downstream demand was good, and the trading atmosphere was gradually warming up, The reference price of n-butanol in Shandong is 14400-14700 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Shandong Yantai Wanhua chemical increased to 14600 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than that in early June. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14500 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton higher than that on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton), an increase of 5.07%.

Upstream, in the first two days of early June, the price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. From the 3rd, the price of propylene increased by 150-250 yuan / ton, and then increased slightly by 50 yuan / ton on the 4th. At present, as of the 7th, the transaction volume of propylene market in Shandong increased to 7850-8250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 8050 yuan / ton.

Inventory low, just need replenishment, short-term market stable and strong operation

In June, the domestic n-butanol market rebounded steadily, the market turnover was stable, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, the downstream just needed to replenish, and the overall trading atmosphere was good. The n-butanol analysts of the business community believed that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market would continue to be stable and relatively strong.