1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, aniline continued its rising trend in late August this month, with prices rising continuously. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10100-11000 yuan/ton; On September 28, the price in Shandong was 12000-12300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12800-13000 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month is 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that in the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Raw materials, pure benzene: The price of pure benzene rose sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 7617 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7901 yuan/ton. This month, it rose 3.72%, 1.55% higher than the same period last year. In terms of cost, crude oil fell broadly this month, and cost support weakened again. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

Nitric acid: the cost side is favorable to the supply and demand side, driving the domestic nitric acid price up. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2167 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2333 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 7.69% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 32.56% lower than that at the same period last year.

The downstream MDI market is stronger, the demand for aniline is strong, the demand for terminal rubber additives is improved, and the demand for aniline is generally warmer. Since the middle and late August, the load reduction of aniline plant and the maintenance news have been concentrated. In addition, Nanhua and Yantai Wanhua mainly supply exports and contracts, the spot supply of the market has changed from loose to tight. The pressure of aniline supply and demand eased, and the inventory of enterprises dropped rapidly to a low level. Fundamentals were strongly driven, and aniline prices rose continuously.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw materials, pure benzene: Due to the closure of the Asian American arbitrage window, the transfer of pure benzene from Asia to China has increased. It is estimated that there will still be a large number of imported shipments in October, and the inventory of ports in East China may continue to accumulate. In terms of supply, the units of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical and HSBC Petrochemical are restarted. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Guangdong Petrochemical units of CPC Central Committee will be put into production. The downstream of pure benzene follows up cautiously, and it is possible that pure benzene will weaken in the later period.

Nitric acid: supported by cost and favorable downstream market, nitric acid is constantly boosted. The demand for goods on holidays increased, and the price of nitric acid is expected to continue to rise.

At present, the supply and demand of aniline is good, and the superimposed export is expected to remain strong. It is expected that the aniline price will continue to be strong in early October. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with large sales volume in the domestic market as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of titanium dioxide fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 17500 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 16350 yuan/ton. The price decreased within the month by 6.57%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide will be lowered this month. The domestic titanium dioxide market has a light trading situation and a strong wait-and-see mood. The overall market of titanium dioxide is weak and downward, with poor downstream demand and limited buying enthusiasm. The traders are more cautious in taking the goods and wait and see. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15500-17000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14500-15500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang region decreased this month. The overall trading and investment in the market is light, the downstream titanium dioxide market is poor, and the procurement is cautious. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure, and the overall market is weak and stable. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 grade titanium ore is about 2040-2100 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 grade titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the titanium concentrate market has few transactions, and the overall market is weak. The actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell first and then rose this month, with the overall price rising slightly. The sulfuric acid price rose from 252 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 258 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a slight increase of 2.38%. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. Downstream markets of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate were consolidated at a low level, and downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

The titanium dioxide analysts of the Business Club believed that the titanium ore market price fell slightly in a row this month, while the sulfuric acid market price fell first and then rose, and the cost support was weak. At present, the domestic titanium dioxide market demand continues to be sluggish, and the manufacturers have great inventory pressure. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton, down 0.28% compared with the same period last week. The overall DMF market price is mainly narrow and weak, and the price has decreased slightly. It is expected that in the short term, the DMF market is mainly stable, while narrow and weak.

As of September 27, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 8850 yuan/ton, and the transaction atmosphere is fair. The negotiation atmosphere is general. The manufacturer gives up the profit and takes away the order. The shipment is smooth. Downstream is mainly rigid demands.

Upstream methanol: As of September 26, the prices of enterprises in southern Shandong were concentrated around 2820-2850 yuan/ton, while the local prices in Linyi were around 2820-2850 yuan/ton.

Chemical commodity index: On September 26, the chemical index was 981 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 29.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 64.05% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The DMF analysts of the Business Agency believe that the DMF market is dominated by strong operation in the short term, with a price range of 9000 yuan/ton and a limited price fluctuation range.

In September, the domestic liquefied gas market was dominated by weakness. The Shandong civil gas market was consolidated in a narrow range in the first half of the month and fell significantly in the second half. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 5930.00 yuan/ton on September 1 and 5560.00 yuan/ton on September 26, with a monthly drop of 6.24%, up 6.38% over the same period last year.

As of September 26, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

North China, 5450-5650 yuan/ton

East China, 5200-5500 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5350-5450 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5500-5650 yuan/ton

Although it ushered in the traditional peak season, in September this year, the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole was dominated by weaknesses. The Shandong civil gas market showed a narrow consolidation trend in the first half of the month, and fell continuously in the second half of the month. In September, the overall decline was more obvious, showing a weak market in the peak season.

In the first half of the month (September 1-15), the Shandong civil gas market fell by 0.24%. There was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream before and after the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was fair. The market trading atmosphere was mild, and the manufacturers had a firm mentality. Most of them adjusted prices in a narrow range according to their own conditions. In the second half of the month (September 15-26), the decline of Shandong civil gas market deepened. During the period, the international crude oil mainly declined, bringing obvious negative effects on the cost side. The improvement of terminal demand is limited, and the downstream is cautious, maintaining the replenishment on demand, and the manufacturers continue to yield profits, mainly shipping. Near the end of the month, the price of Shandong civil gas fell to a relatively low level, the market trading atmosphere improved, and the price gradually recovered to a stable level, with individual compensation.

In September, the liquefied gas futures market was also weak, mainly in the second half of the month. On September 26, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2211 was 5045, the highest price was 5189, the lowest price was 5020, the closing price was 5024, the previous settlement price was 5208, the settlement price was 5111, down 184, the trading volume was 141212, the position was 81078, and the daily position increased 4905. (Quotation unit: yuan/ton)

In general, in terms of cost, international crude oil continued to decline, which was bad for the market. In terms of demand, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is average, and the terminal demand needs to be improved. On the supply side, the upstream inventory has eased. With the price adjusted to a relatively low level, the decline space is relatively limited. It is expected that the price of Shandong civil gas market will continue to consolidate in the short term, and may rise in October.

The price of ortho benzene rose this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of the price of ortho xylene of the business community that the price of ortho xylene rose this week, the price of ortho xylene in the external market rose in shock, and the price of ortho xylene in China rose. As of September 23, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, up 4.65% from 8600 yuan/ton on September 16 last weekend. The supply shortage of ortho benzene remained this week, and the ortho benzene market rose.

Recently, the price of ortho xylene in the external market fluctuated and rose, and the inventory of major domestic ortho xylene ports declined. In 2022, the import volume of ortho xylene in August was basically zero, and the export volume in August was 781 tons. The inventory of ortho xylene ports declined significantly, and the supply of ortho xylene at ports was tight.

The price of raw materials fell

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business community that as of September 23, the price of mixed xylene was 8080 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the price of 8180 yuan/ton on September 16 last weekend. Crude oil fell in shock this week, with poor cost support; The domestic logistics and transportation are limited, the gasoline market is weak, the actual negotiation of the mixed xylene market is limited, and the enthusiasm for preparing goods before the festival is not high. The bad news is suppressed, and the mixed xylene fluctuates. The cost of o-xylene decreased, and the pressure on o-xylene to decline increased.

Downstream demand rising

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply recently. As of September 23, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 7.29% from 9600 yuan/ton on September 16 last weekend. Recently, the supply of goods in the phthalic anhydride plant is tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Tongling, Anhui Province has been shut down for overhaul for about a month, and the 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Xinyang Group has been shut down. It is expected that the start-up will be restarted after the National Day. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride in the plant will rise sharply. The demand is good, and the rising power of o-xylene is increased.

Future outlook

The analysts of the ortho xylene data of the business community believed that the price of raw materials, mixed xylene, fell slightly, and there was a certain downward pressure on the ortho xylene market. However, the ortho xylene manufacturers maintained more, the ortho xylene supply declined, and the export channel of ortho xylene was opened. The downstream demand for phthalic anhydride was good, the demand for ortho xylene rose, and there were many positive factors. In addition, the enterprises were stocking up before the National Day, and the ortho xylene price continued to rise in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 22, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7400.00 yuan/ton, up 0.91% compared with the same period last week. The price fluctuation was small. The price of cyclohexane was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the supply side is stable, the logistics shipment is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is stable.

The average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane is 7400 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 7500-8000 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of cyclohexane in the overall market are balanced, and the willingness of downstream to stock up is average. At present, the supply side is normal, and the merchants give up profits and take orders.

Upstream pure benzene: as of September 16, the price of pure benzene was 7750-7950 yuan/ton (the average price was 7817 yuan/ton), and the price in Shandong was 11600-11800 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000-12300 yuan/ton, up 8.8% over the same period last year.

Chemical index: On September 21, the chemical index was 973 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.50% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.71% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from the business community believe that the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, and the price range is maintained at 7500-8000 yuan/ton.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of September 18, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 3500.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on last Wednesday (September 14), 7.08% lower than the price on August 18, and 25.53% lower than the price on a three-month cycle.

Recently (9.14-9.18), the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid has been stable. In the near future, the prices of upstream raw materials such as liquid ammonia and methanol are relatively strong, caustic soda is relatively weak, sulfuric acid is temporarily stable, and the cost impact is not significant. The enterprise’s shipment is acceptable. The downstream pharmaceutical, rubber, leather, pesticide and other industries purchase goods on a single basis according to market demand. The overall market price is mainly stable, without significant fluctuations.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda this week (9.12-9.16) was weak. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1052 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1048 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; On September 16, the reference price of upstream liquid ammonia was 4306.67, up 11.38% compared with September 1 (3866.67); For upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on September 16; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol in East China port was 2770 yuan/ton on September 16, up 1.79% from the previous trading day, 12.69% month on month, and 9.40% year on year.

According to the formic acid analysts of the business community, the current cost impact is limited. The downstream purchase is on demand, and the market transaction is fair. It is estimated that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the downstream demand for pre holiday stock.

Affected by the upstream in September, the domestic epoxy resin market continued to rise. On the 19th, the reference offer of East China liquid epoxy resin rose to 19000-19200 yuan/ton. The offer value of Huangshan solid epoxy resin market was 17800-18400 yuan/ton, which was 300-500 yuan/ton higher than that before the festival.

The upstream raw material bisphenol A continues to rise, and the cost support is the main reason for the rising of the resin. As the raw material bisphenol A continues to rise, the market of bisphenol A in East China has been pushed up to 14400 yuan/ton by the end of the 19th negotiation. Since August, the domestic market of bisphenol A has been on the rise. After the broad rise after the festival, it was significantly raised by 500 yuan/ton yesterday, which was more than expected. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market offer of bisphenol A was 13912 yuan/ton on September 16, and the market offer rose to 14437 yuan/ton on September 19, a one-day increase of 3.77%. On January 1, the domestic bisphenol A market offered 13000 yuan/ton, up 11.06% by September

Liquid epoxy

On September 19, the reference price of East China liquid epoxy resin was 19000-19400 yuan/ton. The increase of bisphenol A, the main raw material, was significant and strongly supported. ECH operated steadily, and showed a small increase trend due to the influence of surrounding products. The resin factory also actively adjusted the increase. The middle traders were positive, and the downstream just needed to follow up.

Solid epoxy resin

On September 19, the reference price of Huangshan solid epoxy resin was 17800-18400 yuan/ton, showing a slight upward trend. The high level support of dual raw materials is strong, and the supply of low price goods in the market is small. The downstream market entry just needs to follow up. Yesterday’s volume was limited, and today’s attention is paid to the local transaction.

Region, specification, quotation

East China, E51., 19000-19400

Shandong Province, E12, 17800-18400

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, mixed xylene fell by a narrow margin this week. The price was 8180 yuan/ton on September 9; On Friday (September 16), the price was 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week and up 40% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell in shock this week, with poor cost support; The domestic logistics and transportation are limited, the gasoline market is weak, the actual negotiation of the mixed xylene market is limited, and the enthusiasm for preparing goods before the festival is not high. The bad news is suppressed, and the mixed xylene is reduced in a narrow range.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market fell after rising this week. On Thursday (September 15), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 998 dollars/ton, a year-on-year increase of 39 dollars/ton, or 4.07%.

In terms of crude oil, European winter energy supply tension supported, and oil prices rose at the beginning of the week. However, under the pressure of high inflation, the market is worried that the Federal Reserve may significantly raise interest rates. The expectation of global economic recession continues to be depressed, and oil prices have fallen back in shock. As of September 16, Brent price this week fell 1.49 dollars/barrel, or 1.6%, compared with last week; WTI fell 1.68 USD/barrel, or 1.94%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week. On September 9, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on September 16, the price was 9000 yuan/ton, 2.27% higher than last week and 26.76% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China was stable this week. On Friday (September 16), the price of OX in East China was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and up 32.31% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, this week, gasoline in Shandong Province weakened. The price was 9325 yuan/ton on September 9 and 9091 yuan/ton on September 16, down 2.51% from last week and up 13.53% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, in terms of crude oil, the crude oil market is long and short, and the energy supply is expected to be tight in winter; However, the expectation of interest rate increase in Europe and the United States is strong, and the market is still worried about economic recession. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The uncertainty of the cost trend and the weakening of the gasoline market led to a bad atmosphere on the market. However, the market focused on the downstream stock before the National Day, and the short-term price decline is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with large sales volume in the domestic market as an example. According to the bulk list data of the business community, the price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week, with the average price of domestic titanium dioxide at 16350 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price was weak and stable this week. At present, the domestic titanium dioxide market has a general delivery situation, and the downstream just needs to purchase and replenish properly. The manufacturer’s inventory pressure is high, and the market is stabilizing as a whole. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15500-17000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14500-15500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang will be lowered this week. The overall trading and investment in the market is light, the downstream titanium dioxide market is not good, and the pressure on purchasers is high. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure, and the overall market is weak. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 grade titanium ore is about 2040-2100 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 grade titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, there are few deals in the titanium concentrate market, and the overall market is weak. The actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell this week, from 238 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 228 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 4.2%. The upstream sulfur market has been consolidated at a low level recently, with average cost support. Downstream markets of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate declined slightly, and downstream customers were not enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analysts of the business agency, the price of the domestic titanium dioxide market was lowered this week, the domestic market demand was light, and the atmosphere on the market was weak. The market of raw titanium concentrate is weak, the price of sulfuric acid drops, and the cost support is weak. The downstream real estate industry performed poorly, and the market recovery was less than expected. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.