According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 29, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 173000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on November 1. It increased by 44.17% year-on-year and 232.69% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In November, the price of industrial lithium hydroxide was high. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material spodumene was high, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily, the cost side supported the market mentality, the supply side was sufficient, the demand side export orders were good, the domestic downstream demand was flat, the market was relatively stable, and the negotiation focus operated stably. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material spodumene rose, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the cost support continued to be strong, the demand side increased, and the enterprise offer operated firmly.

For upstream lithium carbonate, the price of lithium carbonate rose steadily in November, and there is still room for rise in the short term. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 29, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 193000.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. On November 29, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 203200.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Lithium hydroxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is still strong, and there is little change in supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may operate at a high level in the short term.

The price of ethylene oxide jumped off a cliff this month, and the price fell sharply. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price is reduced by 2500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25%. According to the current price calculation, the loss of ethylene oxide is around 500 yuan, the downward space is limited, and the bottom building market is basically formed.

The upstream ethylene price also weakened slightly compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1130 / ton, down US $70 / ton or 5.83% compared with the beginning of the month.

As the ethylene oxide price was at a historic high at the beginning of the month, the risk degree increased, the market was basically in a wait-and-see atmosphere, and the downstream procurement operation became more cautious. In addition, due to the impact of the off-season of the infrastructure industry in northern winter, it is difficult to increase the demand. Traders with large single inventory leave the warehouse at a low price to avoid pressing the warehouse, which has a negative impact on the mentality of the industry. Some units in Fujian united and Sanjiang are shut down for maintenance. There are many private enterprises and the unit load is low, but on the whole, the drag on the supply and demand side still exists.

Forecast: temporarily stable in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of raw material prices and start-up in the later stage.

Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 6800 yuan / ton on November 22, and 7500 yuan / ton on November 1, down 9.33%.

On November 22, Shandong aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd. had an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax was 6800 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax is 7100 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than last week; Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax is 6500 yuan / ton, which is 400 yuan / ton lower than the previous one. On November 24, Weifang Xudong Chemical Co., Ltd. had an annual output of 15000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax was 7300 yuan / ton. The raw material methanol market is weak, polyoxymethylene is weak and difficult to change, and the polyoxymethylene market is generally sold.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on November 24, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2781 yuan / ton. On November 1, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 3156 yuan / ton, down 11.88%.

Raw material pressure, business community polyoxymethylene, analysts expect polyoxymethylene prices to be dominated by weak operation.

Acetic anhydride prices rose slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride rose slightly this week, and the acetic anhydride market recovered. As of November 19, the price of acetic anhydride was 12425.00 yuan / ton, up 1.02% from 12300.00 yuan / ton last weekend (November 12). The cost of raw materials rose slightly, and the acetic anhydride market rose.

The market of raw material acetic acid rose slightly

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acetic acid price rose slightly this week, and the acetic acid Market stopped rising and fell. As of November 19, the quotation of acetic acid was 7220 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from 7120 yuan / ton on November 12 last weekend. This week, the rise of acetic acid price fell, the rise of raw material price slowed down, the cost of acetic anhydride increased slightly, and the rising power of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fell sharply this week

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the methanol market fell sharply this week, the methanol price fell sharply, and the methanol price fell by 10.09%; The domestic methanol market fell. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased.

Market overview and future forecast

Business agency acetic anhydride data analysts believe that the price rise of raw acetic acid slowed down this week, and the price of methanol fell sharply. The rising cost of acetic anhydride slowed down, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The operation of acetic anhydride enterprises was temporarily stable, and the inventory of acetic anhydride was low. In the future, the tight supply of acetic anhydride remained, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the future price of acetic anhydride will stabilize.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 23, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 14800.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fell slightly this week, 20.86% lower than that in the same period last month. The DMF price fluctuated weakly and went down this week.

This week, the DMF market went up and fell slightly. Compared with the beginning of this week, the price fell by 1.99%. At present, the mainstream price range is about 14800 yuan / ton. The DMF market is weak and downward. At present, the supply side is tight, the procurement atmosphere is general, and the overall market is weak. In the consolidation stage, the upstream methanol is temporarily stable and the rising space is limited.

As of November 22, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2973 yuan / ton. The overall market transaction atmosphere is flat. At present, the international oil price has fallen sharply, Brent has fallen below $80 / barrel, methanol futures operate in shock, and the short-term methanol market is mainly sorted out.

On November 22, the chemical index was 1173 points, down 15 points from yesterday, down 16.21% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 96.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business society believe that DMF will be weak in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 14240 yuan / ton on November 22, 410 yuan / ton higher than 13830 yuan / ton on November 19

Market analysis: according to the data monitoring of business society, on November 22, Shanghai glue increased sharply, with a range of about 600-700 yuan / ton, and the spot glue increased with the plate. The impact of La Nina on the production area is becoming more and more obvious. The continuous excessive rain in Thailand affects the output. Indonesia has entered the stage of seasonal output decline. Cutting has begun to stop in China. The arrival volume of Qingdao port continues to be low and the inventory has decreased. However, the willingness to purchase downstream raw materials, the delivery is normal, and the price of natural rubber is strong. The start-up of downstream tire enterprises continued to pick up. Last week, the start-up rate of China’s semi steel tire sample manufacturers was 63.75%, up 1.70% month on month and down 7.44% year on year. This week, the start-up rate of China’s all steel tire sample manufacturers was 63.26%, up 2.25% month on month and down 10.78% year on year. The start-up remained relatively good.

Future forecast: weather, labor shortage and seasonal factors affect the current rubber supply at home and abroad, the operating rate of tire enterprises rebounds, Qingdao’s spot inventory imports continue to be low, and there are too many influencing factors of natural rubber. It is expected that the recent shock trend will be dominated by the upward trend, and the short-term technical correction after the sharp increase will not be ruled out.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 19): 9140 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the opening price of PVC main contract 2201 rose on November 19, with the closing price of 8961 yuan / ton, up 7%. The futures price rose, boosting the spot market, with the price rising by 1.22% compared with the previous day. The increase range of enterprises was about 50-200 yuan / ton, and the current price was mostly in the range of 8900-9600 yuan / ton. Some enterprises closed the market and stopped reporting, and the market rebounded. At present, the operating load of PVC enterprises has increased to a certain extent, the output has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved after the price has decreased. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has increased slightly, the cost support has gradually increased, and the negative factors have weakened,

Forecast: the PVC market is expected to run in a strong shock in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 continued to decline in mid November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 18, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 16100 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.17% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: the price of upstream caprolactam continued to decline, and the supply of caprolactam units of some enterprises increased after restart. Downstream enterprises just need to purchase. At present, caprolactam has fallen near the cost line, the enterprise has an obvious attitude of stabilizing the price, and the falling space is limited. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, the cost support is insufficient, and the market transaction is few.

The price of upstream caprolactam continued to decline recently, and the cost support of PA6 weakened. The overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants is more than 60%, and the current profitability of polymerization plants is general. In terms of demand, at present, the inventory position of PA6 of downstream users is OK, and the purchase intention is not high. In addition, environmental protection policies such as double limit affect the load of terminal enterprises, the user’s taking of goods is lower, and there is more wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam continued its decline in mid November, the cost side support for PA6 collapsed, and the spot price of PA6 continued to fall. The terminal demand is weak, the on-site transaction is poor, the buyer’s wait-and-see mood is increased, and the bearish mood in the future is increased. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 15066.67 yuan / ton, down 8.32% compared with the price on last Wednesday (November 10) and 14.72% compared with the price on October 17.

The market price of propylene oxide fell this week (11.10-11.17). Recently, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is weakened, the supply side is loose, the demand side is weak, and the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high. It is mainly cautious to wait and see, and the market price of propylene oxide is under pressure. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 14400-14600 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, the overall propylene market in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan / ton on the 16th, and the average propylene price in Shandong was 7792 yuan / ton, down 1.33% from the 15th. The downstream gas buying is insufficient, especially the weakness of polypropylene, the main demand, is difficult to change. Propylene enterprises take the goods in line with the trend, and the price is reduced. There is no obvious positive effect on the propylene market, and it is expected that the propylene market will be weak in the near future.

For downstream propylene glycol, on November 16, the reference price of propylene glycol was 18600.00, a decrease of 22.18% compared with November 1 (23900.00); For downstream soft foam polyether, the mainstream quotation of soft foam polyether market in Shandong on November 16 was around 15400-15600 yuan / ton.

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that the current cost side support is insufficient, coupled with weak supply and demand side support, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may focus on weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to downstream demand.

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated and sorted out. Although traders deliberately covered the goods, the demand was suppressed, the price increase was not successful, and the specific transaction was general. Zhou Du Baojia’s guided price was still reduced by a wide margin, the market quotation in the trade link was reduced, and the shipment was actively negotiated. With the reduction of supply in some factories and the rapid decline of market prices recently, middlemen have closed their plates and waited. In addition, the maintenance news of some enterprises broke out, and some traders intended to stir up, but there were few actual orders.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 5 to November 12, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 20300 yuan / ton to 20233 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.33% in the cycle, 13.53% month on month and 9.37% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of November 15:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

East China 20000-20200 yuan / ton 19200-19300 yuan / ton

South China 20000-20200 yuan / ton 19000-19200 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong 19800-20200 yuan / ton 19300-19500 yuan / ton

The price of pure benzene fell. Raw crude oil and styrene in the main downstream fell broadly, which stimulated the negative impact on pure benzene. However, driven by the favorable expectation of its own supply and demand side, pure benzene shows strong resistance to decline, and the decline is far less than that of upstream and downstream products.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of aniline: both raw materials fell, and the cost support of aniline weakened; Downstream resistance to high priced aniline increased, follow-up weakened, and the high price of aniline corrected. During the week, the market cautiously watched the downstream pick-up sentiment and stabilized after falling. At present, the market is cautiously watching the downstream purchasing sentiment. Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinmao aniline plants are restarted, and Jinling plant is planned to be overhauled, which may affect the trend of aniline.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Japan’s Dongcao maintenance device has resumed production; Shanghai Lianheng phase 1 unit was restarted last week; The load of Shanghai huntsman and Shanghai BASF units has increased one after another.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is depressed and mainly sorted out.