According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has recently experienced a roller coaster like market trend. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate has skyrocketed from 119400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 162000 yuan/ton on January 14th, setting a 35.7% increase in just half a month, and then fell to 147000 yuan/ton on January 19th, a decrease of 9.26%.
Core drivers of skyrocketing: policy dividend pre positioning+supply disturbance+concentrated release of demand
The adjustment of battery export tax rebates has given rise to a wave of “export rush”, leading to a short-term concentrated outbreak of demand

On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice clarifying that the value-added tax export rebate rate for battery products will be gradually reduced: from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027. This policy adjustment has reserved a clear policy dividend window for the industrial chain, directly triggering the “export rush” behavior between overseas customers and domestic battery companies – the market generally expects that overseas customers will place orders in the first quarter to lock in the current 9% high tax rebate dividend, while domestic battery factories need to increase production to meet the surge in export orders.
The transmission effect on the demand side is rapidly emerging: downstream lithium iron phosphate cathode material companies originally planned to reduce production and undergo maintenance for one month during the Spring Festival, but were forced to cancel their plans and accelerate production resumption to match the production schedule of battery factories. They even expected to maintain full load production in the first quarter; Most companies in the industry have a lithium carbonate inventory cycle of only about 10 days. In order to ensure production, they have to increase their spot procurement efforts, forming a chain reaction of “grabbing exports, expanding production, and grabbing raw materials”, directly driving the concentrated release of short-term demand for lithium carbonate and becoming the core engine driving price surges.
Expectations of tight supply and demand
At the same time as the concentrated demand erupts, frequent disturbances occur on the supply side, further strengthening the market’s expectation of a supply-demand gap. The requirement in the “Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Solid Waste” that “mineral processing projects without self built mines and supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities will no longer be approved in principle” has raised concerns in the market about the resumption of production and subsequent treatment of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi (such as Ningde Times Jianxiawo Mine), and the release of some lithium salt production capacity is limited; The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories has also been adjusted accordingly, and the delivery of long-term contract orders has shrunk. Some companies have chosen to hold back and wait, further tightening the supply in the spot market.
Low inventory amplifies upward momentum
As of early January 2026, the social inventory days of lithium carbonate in China have fallen from 44 days in the first half of 2025 to 26 days, which is at a relatively low level; Downstream enterprises’ raw material inventory continues to decrease, and the sense of urgency in procurement has significantly increased. Although the inventory of traders has increased, they are mostly in a locked state and difficult to circulate to the market, further exacerbating the “tight goods” atmosphere in the spot market.
Sudden decline key turning point: Demand falls short of expectations+speculative sentiment recedes

Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and core demand support weakened
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January 1st to 11th, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China were only 117000 units, a year-on-year drop of 38% and a month on month drop of 67%, significantly lower than the market’s previous expectation of a 15% -20% year-on-year growth rate. The significant decline in sales of new energy vehicles has directly shaken the market’s confidence in the growth of demand for power batteries, leading to concerns about the long-term demand for lithium carbonate and becoming the core reason for the price correction.
Money sentiment recedes, short-term speculation logic ends
In the early stage of the rise in lithium carbonate prices, there was a strong atmosphere of financial competition, and the trading volume and holdings in the futures market significantly increased. But as prices hit high levels, coupled with negative news that new energy vehicle sales fell short of expectations, market sentiment quickly shifted and a large amount of bullish funds began to withdraw. Data shows that on January 16th, the position of the main futures contract decreased by 27800 lots, and from early December 2025 to January 16th, 2026, the total position has plummeted from 1.08 million lots to 826000 lots. The concentrated withdrawal of funds directly exacerbated the decline in prices, becoming an “amplifier” for short-term fluctuations.
The lithium carbonate data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the recent roller coaster market of lithium carbonate is the result of short-term demand distortion caused by policy adjustments, expected strengthening caused by supply side disturbances, and the combined effect of financial sentiment and ebb tide. In the short term, before the implementation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand for “grabbing exports” will still provide some support for prices, and lithium prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the medium to long term, the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate may become tight by 2026, and the central operation of lithium prices is expected to rise. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.