1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week stopped falling and rebounded. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2055 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2077 yuan / ton, up 1.09% in the week, and the price fell 3.48% month on month, down 5.31% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
Products: the domestic methanol market has stopped falling and rebounded; in terms of main production areas, Guanzhong general has increased by 20-30 yuan / ton to 1780-1860 yuan / ton, with smooth shipment, and most enterprises have stopped selling; the Northern Line of Inner Mongolia has concentrated at 1730-1750 yuan / ton; Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and other places have also kept pace with the increase. At present, the inventory of some factories in Guanzhong and Inner Mongolia is on the low side, which is the main factor for the rise of the mainland market. The port continued to show a strong trend, driven by lower inventory and higher futures. Methanol port inventory increased this week, with a total inventory of 900900 tons in East and South China, up 21400 tons from last week.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is stable. Affected by the upward trend of methanol market in the upstream, the offer of Jiangsu enterprises was raised, while the offer of other regions was temporarily stable, and the profits of formaldehyde enterprises were still at a low level. The overall commencement of the downstream market was general, with more rigid procurement and limited actual single transactions. Although methanol rose in the upstream, but the overall support for formaldehyde is limited, and the demand side in the downstream is weak and hard to change. It is expected that the short-term formaldehyde market will remain sluggish..
Acetic acid: this week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to be stable since December 11. Jiangsu Sopu unit returned to normal operation, Hebei Jiantao 500000 tons of acetic acid unit and Henan Shunda 400000 tons of acetic acid unit failed to shut down during the weekend, and resumed to restart on Thursday. The market supply has not been affected yet, but the domestic social inventory of acetic acid is still low. In the downstream, the purchase of stable acetic acid is decentralized and rational, which leads to the failure of centralized replenishment in the market and the maintenance of a stable situation in the acetic acid market. In the short term, the domestic acetic acid downstream industry starts to operate stably, and the rational stock of acetic acid. In terms of export, we have not seen the demand for goods preparation for the rational purchase of January orders. In the middle of the week, Shaanxi extended the offer of suppliers and lowered it, breaking the situation of market price stabilization, but it has no impact on the mainstream markets of East China and North China.
Dimethyl ether: this week, the domestic dimethyl ether market transaction situation was sluggish, and the price focus showed signs of decline. Most of the mainstream enterprises in Henan market implemented the policy of minimum guarantee in the early stage of this week. Although the market price is not clear, the terminal purchase is more cautious, and the market purchase mentality is in a low period. After the settlement price was announced, the market wait-and-see mood continued to increase, resulting in a drop in the price of the enterprise. At present, except for just needed procurement, all the enterprises are performing generally. At present, the average price in Henan Province is 3125 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton lower than last weekend, a decrease of 2.50%. From the perspective of commencement, domestic enterprises started 15.45% of the project, which was in the low level as a whole. At present, the price of domestic liquefied gas is still high, and there is a trend of low and bullish. It is expected that the price of DME will return to a stable situation after a short decline.
3、 Future forecast
From the perspective of Business Club: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation and low inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China; in January, the maintenance of international methanol plant is centralized, and the estimated arrival of imported goods is lower than 1 million tons, which is favorable for the port trend. On the negative side, considering that the rain and snow in winter in the North restrict the transportation, especially the freight from Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shandong fluctuates greatly; the southwest natural gas methanol plant is expected to restart in the middle and late of January; the impact of environmental protection monitoring and low temperature in winter, the existing plate factories in Hebei, Shandong and southwest have been shut down, half a month ahead of the previous year, and the formaldehyde demand is significantly reduced. As for the mainland, the supply of goods in the Northwest has shifted from production enterprises to traders. Now, the inventory pressure of production enterprises is not high, and the price is expected to remain strong next week. At present, the progress of goods preparation before the festival varies in different regions, but on the whole, as the end of the year approaches, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods is not high, and it is difficult for the market to continue to pull up. Next week, there is limited space for the mainland to rise. The main logic of methanol’s trend before the Spring Festival is the centralized maintenance of international devices in January, which leads to the reduction of imports. Methanol analysts of the business association predict that the domestic methanol market will be mainly subject to strong shocks next week.