According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in December 2023, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market first fell and then rose. The average price in the domestic market was 15840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15695 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.92%.

On December 27th, the lead commodity index was 95.00, an increase of 0.03 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 27.29% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On December 27th, the base metal index was 1171 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile. June August was the peak season of the season, and it continued to decline after September. Judging from the weekly trend, there is more decline than increase.

At the beginning of the month, the futures market was weakly affected by funds, and the trend of Shanghai lead basically returned to the fundamentals. Under the influence of the seasonal off-season in the market, the overall decline of Shanghai lead was affected. During the same period, LME lead inventory has risen to a high of 140000 tons, putting significant pressure on the market and dragging down market sentiment. In terms of supply and demand, enterprises that underwent maintenance in early December resumed work, and the supply of lead ingots in the market is expected to improve. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. The market experienced a broad decline due to the impact of low demand season and high inventory. Towards the end of the month, the Federal Reserve released a signal of monetary easing, leading to a general strengthening of base metals and a slight increase in lead prices in Shanghai. However, the supply and demand side is still in a seasonal off-season, and the recent market trend has been greatly affected by fundamentals. Overall, the lead ingot market is still under pressure under the influence of terminal demand off-season and high inventory. It is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly, and we will continue to pay attention to the macro impact in the future.

Related data:

In November 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 3.093 million and 2.97 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.4% and 27.4%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.074 million and 1.026 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 30%.

On December 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national lead production in November 2023 was 653000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on December 21, the global lead market supply gap narrowed to 13800 tons in October 2023 and 16100 tons in September; From January to October 2023, there was an oversupply of 40000 tons in the global lead market, and from January to October 2023, there was a shortage of 213000 tons in the global lead market.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined lead (including unrefined refined lead) in China in November 2023 was 20.75 tons, a decrease of 64.6% month on month and 51.5% year-on-year.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on December 13 shows that from January to October 2023, global refined lead production was 12.2557 million tons, consumption was 12.2826 million tons, and supply was 26900 tons short. From January to October 2023, the global lead ore production was 4.1682 million tons. In October 2023, the global refined lead production was 1.2428 million tons, with a consumption of 1.2561 million tons and a supply shortage of 13300 tons. In October 2023, the global lead ore production was 434700 tons.

According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on December 21, the global lead market supply gap narrowed to 13800 tons in October 2023 and 16100 tons in September; From January to October 2023, there was an oversupply of 40000 tons in the global lead market, and from January to October 2023, there was a shortage of 213000 tons in the global lead market.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined lead (including unrefined refined lead) in China in November 2023 was 20.75 tons, a decrease of 64.6% month on month and 51.5% year-on-year.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on December 13 shows that from January to October 2023, global refined lead production was 12.2557 million tons, consumption was 12.2826 million tons, and supply was 26900 tons short. From January to October 2023, the global lead ore production was 4.1682 million tons. In October 2023, the global refined lead production was 1.2428 million tons, with a consumption of 1.2561 million tons and a supply shortage of 13300 tons. In October 2023, the global lead ore production was 434700 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 27th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6175.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% compared to December 1st.

The acrylic acid market fluctuated and rose narrowly in December. In the first half of the year, the propylene raw material market experienced a slight decline, but there is still cost pressure in the acrylic acid market. The rise in the downstream butyl acrylate market has boosted the acrylic acid market to a certain extent, and some companies have raised prices. In the off-season of demand, downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are average, and market transactions are mainly in demand. In mid month, there was an increase in market supply, but the demand side was poor. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and new market transactions were limited. Some holders offered to sell at a discount. In the latter half of the month, cost pressure has increased, with some factories shutting down, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream is in the traditional off-season of consumption, and inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. As the end of the month approaches, the market is mainly stable, and some enterprises have slightly lowered their prices based on their own situation. The market atmosphere is average.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe on December 26th, the reference price for propylene was 7010.75, a decrease of 1.34% compared to December 1st (7105.75).

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that currently there is strong cost support and supply side operation without pressure. However, under the constraint of weak demand, it is expected that the acrylic acid market may remain stagnant and operate in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak in December. From December 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic BDO dropped from 9628 yuan/ton to 9535 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.96% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 1.11%. The price fell by 1.39% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, and small orders were needed for negotiation. The stable operation of the equipment and the gradual launch of new production capacity products in the market have a bearish market mentality. However, due to the supplier’s control over the quantity of spot goods, the holding manufacturers have a cautious attitude towards trading, and mainstream quotations are stable. The downstream of the terminal follows up on demand, and the supply-demand game continues, resulting in an overall market stalemate.

In the first half of the month, the domestic BDO market was weak and declining, and small orders were needed for negotiation. The overall supply in the market is relatively abundant, while the downstream demand at the end is relatively average, and there is a strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials under cost pressure. The attitude of the shipper towards shipping has increased, and negotiations for actual orders and discounts are underway. But with online bidding and high procurement transaction prices, business operators have become cautious, and the market has entered a weak stalemate.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, and small orders were needed for negotiation. Recently, some equipment maintenance, load reduction, and the release of new production capacity have been less than expected, resulting in average overall market supply; At the same time, the transaction price of online auctions is relatively high, and the supplier mainly maintains the price. However, the downstream demand of the terminal is generally followed up, and the supply and demand negotiations are stable, resulting in a weak overall market situation.

As the end of the month approaches, due to equipment shutdown and maintenance, as well as load reduction, the market’s spot supply is average, and suppliers have a strong intention to maintain prices. However, there has been no significant change in downstream demand at the terminal, and many businesses have remained stable and cautious, resulting in a stagnant market focus.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: raw material calcium carbide: the upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, the downstream PVC market prices have slightly increased, and the calcium carbide market is rising narrowly. As of December 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe calcium carbide is 2983.33 yuan/ton. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and consolidated in December, falling first and then rising, with a monthly decline of 1.50%. In recent times, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been mainly consolidating, while the cost of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG, although downstream spandex has seen a decrease in load, PTMEG’s inventory is low, which will not affect PTMEG’s high production in the short term. Despite the addition of new production, downstream PBT still maintains a high operating level of 65% in the industry in the past two years. The demand for degradable materials continues to grow steadily, and the operating rate of GBL/PU/TPU is maintained.

According to future market predictions, some devices are still in maintenance status, but some devices may experience load increases or restarts. There is some support on the short-term supply side, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices will continue. There is no significant change in downstream demand at the terminal, and spot goods are following up lightly. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak and consolidating.

Last week (December 18-24), adhesive short fibers operated weakly and prices remained stable. Sporadic new orders for essential needs have been completed, and dealers lack confidence in the future market. With a bearish attitude, they have partially reduced prices and are still waiting for a new round of prices from major manufacturers. However, most market insiders generally believe that there is still some room for a decline in adhesive prices. The startup rate is basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 81.7%. Downstream people find it difficult to ship cotton yarn, with sporadic and essential purchases and transactions mainly resulting in an increase in inventory. In addition, under most loss making operations, there has been an increase in early holiday plans. Most market participants generally believe that prices may still be slightly lowered.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (December 18-24), the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable. As of December 24, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose short fibers was 13180 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

In terms of cost: Last week (December 18-24), the price of dissolved pulp remained stable, and a new round of imported dissolved pulp quotations was introduced, with a price of around 900 US dollars per ton for broadleaf dissolved pulp and 910 US dollars per ton for coniferous dissolved pulp. Domestic Hunan manufacturers produce dissolved slurry, Shandong equipment maintenance, quoted around 7500-7800 yuan/ton, stable price, actual order negotiation.

Supply and demand: Last week (December 18-24), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 81.7%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, sporadic orders for replenishment are needed, and there is a slight increase in inventory pressure on manufacturers. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that require replenishment. Overall demand continues to be weak.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (December 18-24), human cotton yarn continued its weak performance, with low trading volume and temporarily stable prices. Sales are poor, overall shipments are slowing down, and the operating load of human cotton yarn has slightly decreased to around 66.5%, while inventory has also slightly increased. Most small factories maintain production in a state of slight loss, with some under significant pressure. The market lacks confidence in the later stage, and some small factories have partial intentions to reduce or stop production under pressure from multiple parties. The market generally believes that there is little improvement before the Spring Festival, or there is a possibility of further decline. As of December 17th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) is 17150 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Future Market Forecast

The price center of raw material dissolution slurry is strong, with strong cost support, but the market procurement enthusiasm is still not high. Downstream demand continues to be weak, with most small factories maintaining production in a slightly loss state. Some small factories are under great pressure, and some have intentions to reduce or stop production. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to operate weakly, with prices mainly experiencing a slight bearish decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, this week Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92% month on month, and the current price has dropped by 6.81% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been volatile and consolidating. From the above chart, it can be seen that after a continuous slight increase in the potassium nitrate market, the market has remained basically stable this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, border trade sources have slightly increased, and prices have fallen. The potassium nitrate market is trading coldly, with average transactions and market consolidation. According to the statistics of Business Society, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5200-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the port’s white potassium prices are mostly priced at 2820-2880 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market is still in a slow downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in mid December. On December 20th, the sulfur price was 1113.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.03% compared to December 21st, which was 1060.00 yuan/ton, and a month on month increase of 6.03%.

In mid December, the sulfur market operated strongly, with good demand from the main downstream factories in Shandong region during the cycle and a high intention to purchase goods. The market trading atmosphere was positive, and refinery shipments were smooth. Inventory maintained a low level of operation, and the market supply was tightened. The supplier’s mentality was optimistic, and the refinery’s quotation based on its own shipment and inventory situation was firm and rising. As of the 20th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1070-1150 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1070-1210 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating weakly and steadily. On December 20th, the daily average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 282.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 282.00 yuan/ton on December 11th. Some companies on the market have increased their inventory and increased their willingness to ship, but downstream demand is limited and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Sour acid companies have performed poorly in their shipments, while raw material prices have risen and cost support is good. Sulfuric acid prices are mainly stable.

During the cycle, the downstream ammonium phosphate market remained stable, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 3466.67 yuan/ton on December 20th, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the price of 3500.00 yuan/ton on December 11th. Terminal fertilizer has entered the off-season, downstream demand has weakened, and market inquiries have decreased. Although enterprises currently have support from pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, later support weakens, and the price of ammonium has slightly decreased.

Future Market Forecast

The sulfur analyst from Business Society believes that the sulfur refinery equipment is operating normally, the market supply of goods remains rational, the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure, and the demand in the end market is weakening. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, and the demand side support is still acceptable. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will be observed and sorted out in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6800 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 2.30% compared to the reference average price of 6960 yuan/ton on December 11th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6733 yuan/ton, which is 6833 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on December 11th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 0.73%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has fallen this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, weakening cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, the demand in the phosphoric acid market is sluggish, and the trading volume is limited. The company’s quotation has been lowered, and the transaction volume is mainly negotiated on a single basis. As of December 18th, the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-7550 yuan/ton.

This week, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to decline, and the overall market trading situation was average. The operating rate in the downstream market has weakened, leading to a pressure on prices and a focus on demand. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders, and not providing external quotations for new orders. Only one can be negotiated. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. As of now, the mainstream quotation for Yunnan yellow phosphorus is around 24500 yuan/ton; The quotation for Guizhou yellow phosphorus is around 24500 yuan/ton, while the quotation for Sichuan yellow phosphorus is around 25000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market this week was mainly stable and consolidating after a decline, with little overall fluctuation in the market. The overall supply side of phosphate ore is still slightly tight, and the supply side still provides some support to the market. The overall performance of downstream demand is average, with most downstream orders being for rigid needs. As of December 18th, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the phosphoric acid market has recently weakened and prices have fluctuated downward. The market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is not good, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. At present, terminal demand is limited, market transactions are light, and downstream and dealers hold a buying up but not buying down mentality. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will be weak and decline.

Recently (12.12-12.18), the trichloromethane market has been weak and consolidating. According to data from Business Society, as of December 18th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province remained stable at 2000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has shifted downwards; In addition, the overall downstream demand is weak with only a small amount of hard demand support, and transactions in the trichloromethane market are rare, resulting in lower merchant quotes.

Recently (12.12-12.18), domestic methane chloride production fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (12.12-12.18), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the spot price of methanol was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the 2450 yuan/ton in December. As of December 18th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 100 yuan/ton, which continues to decline compared to the previous period.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of demand for refrigerants at the terminal. Currently, the delivery price of refrigerant R22 is weak and stable, with low operating costs. The support for demand for trichloromethane is weak. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that a small amount of rigid demand has weak support for trichloromethane, but cost support has weakened, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of December 15th, the spot nickel quotation was 133875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 39.93%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3% in the past 12 weeks, with the recent rebound being the main trend.

On a macro level, the November retail sales of the US stock market announced on Thursday evening were 0.3%, higher than expected and previous levels; The number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits was 202000, lower than expected, reflecting the resilience of the US economy and employment, and slightly weakening the market’s optimistic expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. On Thursday evening, the Bank of England will release its interest rate resolution and meeting minutes; On Thursday evening, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision released a bearish signal. Although the interest rate remained unchanged, it was stated that there was no discussion of a rate cut. After the meeting, traders reduced their bets on the European Central Bank’s rate cut, and it is expected that the rate cut in 2024 will not exceed 150 basis points. The Bank of England also maintains a hawkish stance, with Bank of England Governor Bailey stating that it is too early to begin speculating about a rate cut, and it cannot be said that interest rates have reached their peak. The European and British bias towards the hawk and the American bias towards the dove led to a decline in the US index, benefiting precious metals to a certain extent.

In terms of supply: In November, the domestic refined nickel production was 23060 tons, which was the first 4% decline compared to this year; Intermediate products: High nickel ice and MHP prices continue to weaken slightly. In November, Indonesia’s MHP continued to increase production to 20500 nickel tons, while high nickel ice production reached 17500 nickel tons.

In terms of demand, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide this week was 871600 tons, a decrease of 4.55% compared to the previous week. There has been a seven consecutive decline, mainly in the 200 and 300 series. The production side has been affected by the cost decline, with a total production of 2.952 million tons of stainless steel crude steel in December, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous month. The increase is mainly reflected in the 300 and 400 series. In terms of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the slowdown in terminal sales data may further transmit to the middle and upper reaches, and the production of ternary materials is expected to continue to decline slightly month on month in the future, dragging down the demand for nickel sulfate.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.

In summary, pure nickel accumulates both inside and outside, the production of ternary precursors deteriorates, and the price of nickel sulfate drops. Nickel production slightly decreased in November. There are variables in Indonesia’s nickel mining policy, and new production capacity for primary and secondary nickel has been gradually put into operation, continuously testing the demand side’s ability to undertake. It is expected that the short-term low volatility trend of nickel prices will be the main trend.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 14, 2023, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8116 yuan/ton. Compared with December 7 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton), the price increased by 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21%. Compared with December 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (12.7-12.14), the overall domestic propylene glycol market saw a narrow and slight upward trend. During the week, the downstream demand of the domestic propylene glycol market continued to be mainly for rigid procurement, and some propylene glycol units in Shandong region were still under maintenance. The propylene glycol market remained stable, and there was no significant change in the overall supply and demand of propylene glycol plants. Some propylene glycol factories had decent shipments in the early stage, and the supply pressure gradually eased. As a result, factories raised the price of propylene glycol narrowly by 50 yuan/ton. As of December 14th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is based on around 8100-8200 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is still good. The overall production of propylene glycol in the field is relatively low, and the supply side provides some support to the market. Some factories have tight spot prices, and the supply pressure is relatively small. Downstream demand is mainly cautious, while the overall support on the demand side is average. According to the propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, The specific market trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.