According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 28, the average price of domestic power premium lithium iron phosphate was 165000.00 yuan/ton. In October, the market price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 6.45%, slightly higher than the price in the same period last month. The price of lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong. At present, the focus of the market negotiation is stable, the operating rate is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, the main contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited, In the short term, the price is mainly stable.

In the first ten days of October, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable, and the price range remained at 155000-160000 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium carbonate: as of October 13, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 521000 yuan/ton, up 3.95% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (October 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 501200 yuan/ton). Stable operation is the main factor. The industrial grade is 505000 yuan/ton, and the battery grade is 530000 yuan/ton. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, there is a strong bullish atmosphere. In late October, as of October 24, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a superior power product, is 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable, and the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

Chemical index: On October 27, the chemical index was 966 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 31.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 61.54% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community, the LiFePO4 market is expected to operate stably in November.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of October 27, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9766.67 yuan/ton, down 13.31% from October 1, and 51.33% from the same period last year.

The market price of epichlorohydrin fell in October. From the perspective of supply and demand: after the festival, the factory is active in shipping, but the downstream mainly consumes the raw materials in stock, and only small orders are needed to replenish at low prices. The shipment of the cargo holders is not smooth, the operators are under pressure, and the price of epichlorohydrin is falling. The demand side is still poor in the middle and late days. Some units in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang are in shutdown state, but the downstream purchase intention is not high, the buying is cautious, the cargo holders are under pressure, and the weak demand continues to drag down the price.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7426.60 on October 26, down 2.55% compared with October 1 (7620.60). The cost of propylene method was not supported enough this month. The market of raw glycerin fell this month, but the cost pressure of glycerin method remained. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 18433.33 on October 26, down 10.23% compared with October 1 (20533.33), which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is insufficient, the demand is weak, and the factory is mainly active in shipping. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 26, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8800 yuan/ton, and compared with the price on October 1 (the butanone reference price was 9900 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 1100 yuan/ton, or 11.11%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.26), the domestic butanone market as a whole has shown a weak and declining trend. The factors that influence the continuous downward exploration of the center of gravity of butanone mainly come from the following three aspects:

1、 From the perspective of demand, after the National Day holiday, the downstream demand of butanone was cautious, and the pace of shipment was slow. Some butanone factories had accumulated stock. Insufficient demand led to pressure on the overall inventory on the site, and most of the operators began to yield profits for shipment.

2、 In terms of cost, in October, the C4 market after the raw material ether ran in a narrow range, and the cost support given to butanone was also average. Therefore, it was difficult for the cost side to support the firm offer of butanone.

3、 In terms of supply, in October, the overall operating rate of domestic butanone units remained at about 60%. This month, the operating rate was not adjusted much. However, due to the constraints of demand, the supply side still had shipping pressure, and the market focus continued to decline.

As of October 26, the domestic market price of butanone was around 8200-9200 yuan/ton, with a large difference between high and low prices on the market, with a drop of about 800-1500 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month.

In terms of upstream, since October, the domestic market of liquefied gas for civil use in Shandong has been operating in an overall shock. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5424 yuan/ton on October 25, a decrease of 0.59% compared with October 1 (the reference price of liquefied gas was 5456 yuan/ton).

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is still weak, the overall market remains weak, and the downstream demand side is generally boosted. The butanone data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the butanone market is weak and mainly operates, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific interest consumption changes on the supply and demand side.

The market situation of nitrile rubber continued to be weak. The price of nitrile rubber fell slightly this week (10.14-10.21). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 21, the price of nitrile rubber was 16300 yuan/ton, down 2.10% from 16650 yuan/ton last Friday. After the festival, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been lowered successively. As of the 21st day, the listing price of Lanzhou Petrochemical N41 nitrile rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of Shunze 3355 nitrile rubber was 16000 yuan/ton, according to the monitoring of the business community; Sinopec Sibul nitrile rubber 3365 factory report 15800 yuan/ton.

Since October, the price of raw material butadiene has declined, the price of acrylonitrile has risen, and the cost of butadiene acrylonitrile rubber has differentiated. In addition, the downstream demand is weak, the merchants ship at low prices, and the market price of nitrile rubber is gradually lower.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 21, the price of butadiene was 7608 yuan/ton, 1.95% lower than that of 7760 yuan/ton last Friday; As of October 21, the price of acrylonitrile was 10790 yuan/ton, up 5.27% from 10250 on Friday.

The domestic nitrile rubber plants are basically operating normally, with the industry starting at around 80%, and the supply of nitrile rubber in the market is loose.

After the festival, the construction of nitrile rubber downstream is mainly stable. There are few new orders for nitrile enterprises, the market turnover is light, and the demand for nitrile rubber is insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the cost of NBR is differentiated at present, and the demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the NBR market will be weak in the short term.

This week (10.1-10.21) metal silicon was consolidated and operated, and the poor logistics and transportation led to a weak trading and investment atmosphere in the market. However, there was cost support, and it was difficult for raw materials to enter the market. At the same time, the futures market was imminent, and the silicon factory’s quotation remained firm. As of October 21, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 21690 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

On the 21st, the price of 441 # silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 21300-21500 yuan/ton, with an average of 21400 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 21300-21400 yuan/ton, 21350 yuan/ton on average; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 22200-22400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22300 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price Fluctuation of Silicon Metal

Supply side: There is no obvious change in the supply disturbance factors this week. Under the influence of a new round of power rationing policy, Yunnan has significantly limited its production, and it is still possible to further limit its production as the dry season approaches. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang is repeated, the transportation is blocked, and the supply continues to be disturbed. It is understood that there are 399 sets of metal silicon being fired at present. As of October 20, the rate of metal silicon being fired is about 56.83%, 135 sets in Xinjiang, 71 sets in Sichuan and 84 sets in Yunnan.

Demand side: the price of aluminum alloy is stable, the mainstream quotation is 18700 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy is the same as last week. Due to repeated outbreaks in some regions, the recovery of aluminum alloy starting is limited due to economic downturn, and there is still a stock of metal silicon in the aluminum plant, and a small amount of metal silicon is still needed to maintain the main procurement; The price of organic silicon DMC is temporarily stable, and the mainstream quotation is 17580 yuan/ton. The supply and demand transmission of organic silicon in the field is deadlocked, and each monomer factory suffers from serious losses, mainly purchasing metal silicon.

The mainstream price of polysilicon is 297666.66 yuan/ton, the price is stable, the unit operation rate of silicon material enterprises is normal, and the output of domestic large factories has increased significantly this month. The production of new capacity continues to climb, the demand continues to be strong, and the demand for metal silicon continues to increase.

Future market forecast

There is no significant change in the supply and demand expectation. The supply side of the epidemic in Xinjiang and the production reduction and restriction in the southwest continue to be disturbed, and the demand side has no significant improvement. Although the demand for polysilicon remains strong, the overall demand expectation is consistent with the market, and the price of metal silicon is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 10510 yuan/ton on October 17, and 10390 yuan/ton on October 21. This week, the price of domestic industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid fell 1.14%.

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9800 yuan/ton on October 17, and 9700 yuan/ton on October 21. The domestic price of wet process phosphoric acid fell 1.02% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market fluctuated and fell this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stable and the cost support is average. At present, there is no good news on the market, manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, and the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with stable delivery and investment. As of October 21, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was about 10390 yuan/ton, and the average price of 85% wet phosphoric acid in the domestic market was about 9700 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 9950-11000 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 10800 yuan/ton, and the market quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 10000 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85 content WPA in Hubei is about 9400 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is about 10000 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. This week, the phosphorus ore market was in a stable and consolidated operation as a whole. In special periods, logistics was limited, some mining enterprises stopped production, and the information on the site was relatively calm. Although the downstream phosphate fertilizer market continues to be weak and the demand side is generally supported, the overall offer of phosphate rock mining enterprises is mainly stable due to the tight supply.

Raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the actual market transaction price declined. At present, the market of yellow phosphorus is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the raw material yellow phosphorus market has been consolidated this week, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the phosphoric acid market has increased. Downstream purchase on demand, with limited release of terminal demand. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene rose after the festival and fell back. On September 30, the price was 7630 yuan/ton, and on Friday (October 14), it was 7790 yuan/ton, up 2.1% compared with that before the festival; 18.75% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Supported by the strong rise of crude oil, related bulk commodities generally rose, and the domestic toluene market actively supported prices. However, the downstream actual demand was weak, the terminal gasoline continued to fall, the crude oil fell broadly after the festival, the negative atmosphere was suppressed, and the mentality of the industry turned negative.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia rose in a volatile way this week. On Thursday (October 13), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $979/ton, up $13/ton year-on-year, or 1.35%.

In terms of crude oil, due to OPEC+’s plan to significantly reduce production from November, oil prices continued to rise during the holiday season. As of October 7, Brent prices rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%. However, the market’s concern about economic recession still depressed the oil price, which mainly fell after the festival. As of October 14, Brent price fell by 6.29 dollars/barrel, or 6.42%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 7.03 USD/barrel, or 7.59%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China soared. On September 30, the price was 20075 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 24367 yuan/ton, 21.38% higher than before the festival, and 73.84% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of PX, domestic PX prices rose. On September 30, the price was 9000 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than before the festival, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market is weak, and the price has been weakening continuously. On September 30, the price was 8693 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from before the festival, and up 1.32% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market will continue the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market is worried about the economic recession depressing oil demand. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

At present, the demand side of toluene is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the price is weak. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

According to the data from the business society, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of October 16, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7950.00 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the price of 8090.00 yuan/ton on October 10, and down 8.20% from the same period last month.

On October 16, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 74.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15), and up 46.33% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Most domestic benzol maleic anhydride markets were shut down this week. This week, the downstream of maleic anhydride is ready for shipment after the festival. The factory has no shipment pressure for the time being, and the resin is mainly purchased on demand. As of the 16th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7400 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 7400 yuan/ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was about 8000 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream, after the festival, pure benzene rose continuously and fell back rapidly. On September 30, the average price of pure benzene was 7917 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the average price was 8092 yuan/ton, up 2.21% compared with that before the festival. This week, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose first and then fell, rising overall. Last weekend, it was 7900 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 8033.33 yuan/ton, up 1.69%. As for n-butane, as of October 16, the price in Shandong was 5280 yuan/ton.

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the Business Club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is suffering from serious losses at present, the factory is shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation supply is less; This week, the downstream of maleic anhydride is ready for shipment after the festival. The factory has no shipping pressure for the time being. The resin is mainly purchased on demand, and the price of maleic anhydride is mainly sorted out. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to consolidate in the near future.

With both supply and demand driven, the price of silicon metal has risen steadily. As of October 17, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 21690 yuan/ton, up 2.02% from last week.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 21300-21500 yuan/ton, with an average of 21400 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 21300-21400 yuan/ton, 21350 yuan/ton on average; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 22200-22400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22300 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price Fluctuation of Silicon Metal

Supply side: The supply continues to be disturbed, and production in Sichuan continues to recover, but the production of silicon metal enterprises in Yunnan is limited, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell at a high price. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang is repeated and the transportation of raw materials is blocked. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 688 at present. As of October 13, the opening rate of silicon metal furnaces is about 50%. The number of silicon metal furnaces in Xinjiang is 113, Sichuan is 66, and Yunnan is 83.

Demand side: the price of aluminum alloy is stable, and the mainstream quotation is 18700 yuan/ton; The price of silicone DMC fell, and the mainstream quotation was 17580 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy and organic silicon is weakening. It is understood that at present, the organic silicon industry is upside down at nearly 8 points, and some monomer devices will have a reduced maintenance plan. Aluminum alloy enterprises also expect to reduce production due to weak downstream consumption.

The mainstream price of polysilicon is 297666.66 yuan/ton, and the price is stable, continuing the level before the festival. From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month. Two units in the maintenance period have been restored successively in September. However, under the influence of the epidemic in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, although the unit production has not been affected, due to the impact of transportation, the delivery may be delayed, and the supply has little impact.

Future market forecast

On the whole, the reason for the short-term rise of metal silicon is that the demand for polysilicon remains prosperous, the supply side is limited and the epidemic situation is disturbed. However, the demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy remains weak, which limits the space for metal silicon price to rise. At the same time, the improvement of production in Sichuan will to some extent offset the decline in Yunnan’s supply, and it is difficult for silicon price to rise again. It is expected that it will operate stably, moderately and weakly in the short term.

Aluminum price slightly recovered

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 14 was 18726.67 yuan/ton, up 1.01% daily, 2.02% higher than the average market price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1), 17450 yuan/ton higher than the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and 7.32% higher than the recent recovery.

According to the year-on-year data, the average market price in the same period last year was 23230 yuan/ton, down 19.36%. At the peak price of 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 22.74%.

Short term market dominated by news

The aluminum price rose on the 14th, mainly because the market news that RUSAL would be subject to sanctions disturbed the aluminum price. On the 14th, it was reported that Alcoa had asked the London Metal Exchange to delist Russian aluminum from the market. In addition, on the 13th, the United States was considering banning the import of Russian aluminum as a response to the recent escalation of the situation. The price of Lunan Aluminum rose, and Shanghai Aluminum was also boosted. The linkage between futures and cash drives spot aluminum prices up. It is reported that the annual capacity of RUSAL is about 4.5 million tons, accounting for about 6% of the total capacity of global electrolytic aluminum. In the first half of 2022, the United States will import 3210000 tons of aluminum products, including 126000 tons of aluminum products (including metals, alloys, crude metals, plates and bars, etc.) from Russia, accounting for 3.93% of the total imports.

The recent rebound in aluminum prices is still at the stage of news disturbance. Only when there are a large number of supply and demand gaps in the global aluminum market can a sustained rebound trend be formed. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected that the trend will remain volatile in the short term.