Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

Throughout the year, the overall domestic sodium metabisulfite price in 2022 will be at a relatively high level and operate weakly. After bottoming out in the first half of the year, it will continue to rise. In the second half of the year, it will continue to decline weakly. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite on January 1 was 2733.33 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 29 was 2350.00 yuan/ton, down 14.02% during the year.

Affected by the continuous sharp drop in the prices of upstream soda ash and sulfur, after New Year’s Day, domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises lowered the factory price again, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to decline, with most prices falling to around 2200 yuan/ton. Before and after the Spring Festival, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market trade turned weak as a whole, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price remained weak and stable.

After the Spring Festival, the prices of soda ash and sulfur hit the bottom and rebounded sharply. Supported by the cost, the manufacturers raised the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite one after another, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to recover in an all-round way after the year. The average price at the end of the month rose to 2583.33 yuan/ton, and rebounded significantly 7.64% in the month. In March, the price of upstream raw materials stabilized as a whole, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite stabilized with the rising trend and then moved forward with shocks.

In the second quarter, the domestic soda ash and sulfur prices continued to rise, and the rising cost continued to drive the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price to continue to rise. In April, the sodium metabisulfite market price rose by 4.32%. In May, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price rose to around 3300 yuan/ton, and rose by 12.43% in May. In June, the soda ash price continued to rise, the sulfur price fell slightly, and the overall rise of upstream raw materials stabilized, The market price of sodium metabisulfite in China has stabilized with a slight increase of 1% in the month. Supported by the rebound of upstream raw material cost price, the rebound of domestic sodium metabisulfite in mid February continued to rise to the end of June, with an overall increase of 39.58%.

Since the second half of 2022, the upstream raw material price of sodium metabisulfite has been rising and falling, and the raw material cost is under the low pressure system. The manufacturer continues to reduce the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite. In addition, the overall inventory of sodium metabisulfite is relatively high. The downstream trade subjects have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the market trade has turned weak. In order to ensure shipment, the manufacturer has lowered the ex factory price many times. In July, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite rose and fell, falling 9.45% in the month, Under the suppression of many bad news, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price remained weak in August, with a sharp drop of 10.99% in the month.

In September, the price of upstream raw materials stopped falling and picked up slightly, the willingness of downstream to prepare goods became stronger, the overall inventory of sodium metabisulfite was low, and the overall decline of domestic sodium metabisulfite market price slowed down.

In the fourth quarter, the price of raw materials in the upstream of sodium metabisulfite fluctuated at the bottom, and the cost of raw materials continued to fluctuate at a low level. The domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to be adjusted at a weak level. Supported by some factors such as the price of raw materials rebounded slightly, and the overall inventory of sodium metabisulfite was low, the price decline of sodium metabisulfite in the fourth quarter slowed down, falling 2.55% in October, 3.95% in November, and 3.42% in December. The domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite was suppressed by the lower cost. It rose in July and fell back. It fell all the way to the end of December, with an overall decline of 29.85%.

Since the beginning of 2022, the price of domestic soda ash has risen and fallen, falling 1.93% in the year, and the low price of sulfur has fluctuated significantly, falling 37.34% in the year. The cost of raw materials continues to fluctuate at a low level, which will suppress the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future market forecast

According to the analysts of the business community, affected by the sharp rise and fall of the raw material cost in the year, the overall domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will rebound after hitting the bottom in 2022, and the overall decline will stabilize at the end of the year. Supported by the weak raw material cost, it is expected that the overall domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will move forward steadily in the short term.

In general, the cost of raw materials will remain low, showing a downward trend compared with 2021. The continued low cost will continue to suppress the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in the future. Supported by the overall low inventory of sodium metabisulfite, the market price of domestic sodium metabisulfite will have limited space to fall back in the future. In 2023, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will continue to be mainly affected by the fluctuation of raw material price.

Spot price: spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly this week (12.19-12.23). According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7262 yuan/ton on December 23, up 1.82% from Monday and 3.10% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures this week was a narrow shock. The main contract of short fiber PF futures closed at 7066 on Friday, 1.56% lower than the closing price last week. The settlement price is 7124 yuan. This week, the main force of PTA futures of domestic staple fiber upstream raw materials rose 1.01% to close at 5406, while the main force of ethylene glycol futures fell 1.57% to close at 4016.

This week, the main force of US oil futures rose 6.44% to close at US $79.45 per barrel. The risk of economic recession is still there, and the market is worried about the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate increase. However, the impact of the US winter storm and the plan to replenish reserves on the decline of crude oil stocks has made the international crude oil price stronger.

PTA spot price rose 2.86% from the beginning of the week, up 15.41% year on year. The rise in crude oil price has strengthened the support for PTA costs, and PTA large plants have reduced production and increased production under low processing costs. The maintenance time of some plant units was extended, and the shutdown continued in January. In terms of PTA new capacity, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA new plant of Shandong Weilian Chemical has been discharged, and it is expected to open one of the lines in the early stage; The 2.5 million tons of Jiatong Energy is currently in trial run.

This week, some large staple fiber plants continued to reduce production, and the supply decreased slightly. Terminal demand has improved marginally in the near future. However, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic situation, the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills of staple fibers have started to decline. They are not very enthusiastic about purchasing polyester staple fibers. The purchase is mainly just in demand, the production and marketing of staple fibers are generally weak, and the spot price is mainly discussed. The price has risen slightly due to the strong support of costs.

In the future, the cost end support of staple fiber raw materials still exists. The downstream terminal market has entered the Spring Festival holiday state, with the boot rate further reduced, and the demand for staple fiber may gradually decline. Short term staple fiber prices or follow the trend of strong shocks. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, the national epidemic situation and the industrial chain holidays.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise. From December 9 to 16, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 6566 yuan/ton to 6755 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.87%, a month on month decrease of 0.55% and a year-on-year increase of 40.92%. After early consumption, traders have less supply of goods, which coincides with the periodic replenishment of some downstream markets, once driving spot prices higher.

On the cost side, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.11 US dollars/barrel, down 1.17 US dollars or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars or 1.8%. Many central banks have raised interest rates and tightened policies, which have put pressure on risky assets. The risk of global economic recession increased, and the risk aversion made the oil market end its third consecutive rise, and the rebound lost momentum. The transaction price of naphtha in the mainstream is mainly volatile, while the downstream demand is just in demand, and some refineries reduce the price for shipment. Butadiene costs have many negative factors.

On the supply side, the listing price of butadiene of Sinopec East China Sales Company was stable at 6800 yuan/ton. The 1 # 60000 t/a butadiene plant of Yangzi Petrochemical was restarted, and products were produced successively, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene industry increased slightly by 0.57%. The 200000 t/a butadiene unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was fed with materials, and the merchants waited to see the output. The supply side news affected the atmosphere.

On the demand side, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China rose by a narrow margin, from 10530 yuan/ton to 10608 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber rose by 0.07% from 10833 yuan/ton to 10841 yuan/ton. The price of nitrile rubber in China fell by 0.97% from 15150 yuan/ton to 15003 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream rubber industry continues to be in strong demand and lacks sustainable support. Most of the product prices rise in a narrow range, and the commencement of construction remains at about 60%. There is no obvious positive factor for butadiene demand.

In terms of external market: the closing price on December 15, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: South Korea FOB reported 775-785 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; China CFR reported 785-795 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 490-500 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euros/ton.

It is predicted in the future that Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has not produced yet, and the high cost of some goods in East China has led to firm offers from businesses, supporting the mentality of some businesses. The downstream continues to meet the rigid demand, and it is difficult to get a good boost in the short term, so the fundamentals are weak. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market may be under pressure in the short term.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.9-12.16) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 196410 yuan/ton last weekend and 191210 yuan/ton this weekend, down 2.65%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the figure above that tin prices will rise continuously after November 2022 due to macro factors.

Futures market situation this week

Variety./Closing price./Compared with the same period of last week./Inventory (ton)./Inventory change compared with last week (ton)

Shanghai Tin./191110 yuan/ton./- 6980 yuan/ton./5896./+200

London tin./23600 dollars/ton./- 565 dollars/ton./3005./- 135

In terms of futures market: this week, Lunxi fell in shock, with a weekly drop of more than 3%. Shanghai Tin fell under pressure, with a weekly drop of about 3.8%. In terms of inventory, Lunxi fell 135 tons, while Shanghai Tin rose 200 tons.

The spot market has recovered to a certain extent this week due to the reduction of market price, but the downstream purchasing as a whole still remains just in demand. Fundamentals have not changed much in the near future as a whole, showing no loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the supply is loose. At present, the downstream purchase intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand does not change much with the approaching holiday, but the pre holiday stock situation is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

On December 18, the non-ferrous index stood at 1195, unchanged from yesterday, 22.30% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1538 (2021-10-18), and 96.87% higher than the lowest point of 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 50th week of 2022 (12.12-12.16). The top three commodities that rose were metal neodymium (2.73%), neodymium oxide (2.67%) and dysprosium iron alloy (2.11%). There were 11 kinds of commodities that fell on a month on month basis, with zinc (-2.61%), silver (-1.27%) and copper (-0.72%) as the top three products. This week, the average rise or fall was 0.38%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 9933 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 9933 yuan/ton, which was stable.

2、 Market analysis

The raw material side was strongly supported, and some merchants slightly raised the shipping price, but the transaction volume was insufficient.

The cost support is on the high side, the tight situation of goods in some areas continues, the supply of permeable benzene goods is slightly loose, and the traders tend to be cautious in trading. The mainstream price of GPPS in East China market is 8900-10800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS is 10050-11200 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

PS market transactions are weak, focusing on market transactions. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS market will experience strong shocks.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8400 yuan/ton on January 1 and 8066.67 yuan/ton on December 15, a decrease of 3.97% in the year. The highest point of the price market was about 11128.57 yuan/ton on June 14, which was 32.48% higher than the beginning of the year. The lowest point was 7700.00 yuan/ton on November 30, which was 30.81% lower than the highest point.

styrene

In 2022, the price of styrene will generally show a trend of “rising – fluctuating and falling”. From the monthly K-bar chart of the business community, in 2022, the number of months for the price of styrene to rise will be more than the number of months for the price to fall, of which January has the largest upward range, reaching 6.07%, and October has the largest downward range, reaching 10.3%. The strong rise in the first half of the year was mainly due to the soaring crude oil market, which gave support to the cost of styrene, a large number of European and American devices were overhauled, the global supply of styrene was tight, overseas styrene prices drove up domestic prices, domestic net imports decreased, industry inventories were low, and prices rose in shock. The shock drop in the second half of the year was due to the sharp drop in the crude oil market, which has recently fallen to the lowest level in the year, driving the decline in the pure benzene market. The support for styrene cost has weakened, and multiple styrene units have been put into operation. The styrene production capacity has continued to expand, and the market supply has increased. The shock drop in the styrene market.

In the first half of the year: the cost supports the sharp rise of styrene market

The price of styrene rose in the first half of the year. On January 1, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was about 8400.00 yuan/ton, and on June 14, it was about 11128.57 yuan/ton. The price rose by 32.48%. The factors influencing the sharp rise of styrene market are as follows: first, the international crude oil price has risen in shock, and the benefits of bulk commodities are obvious. The petrochemical industry chain has actively followed the rise, including strong growth of pure benzene and ethylene, and strong support at the cost end; Secondly, Shanghai SECCO, Anhui Haoyuan, Sinochem Quanzhou, Qingdao Bay, Shandong Wanhua, Huatai Shengfu and other devices have been shut down for maintenance, which has greatly reduced the utilization rate of styrene production capacity, hitting a new low in recent years, and the factory inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing some support for styrene; Thirdly, the import volume of styrene in China from January to June was 584300 tons, a significant drop of 282500 tons or 32.29% compared with 866800 tons in the same period last year. The total export volume from January to June was 421200 tons, a significant increase of 201800 tons or 91.98% compared with 219400 tons in the same period last year. Among them, monthly net exports were achieved from April to June. The oil price drove the aromatics prices in Europe and the United States up. The arbitrage window was opened for a long time, which was good for the domestic styrene market.

Second half of the year: supply and demand double weak styrene market fluctuated and declined

In the second half of the year, the price of styrene dropped by shock. On June 15, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was about 11057.14 yuan/ton, and on December 15, it was about 8066.67 yuan/ton, down 27.05%. The trend in the second half of the year can be divided into three parts. The first part is from the middle of June to the middle of August. Influenced by macro negative factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the crude oil price fell sharply, the styrene futures price fell, and downstream demand remained weak. The styrene spot market fell to about 8500 yuan/ton. Part II From late August to mid September, due to the continuous low profits of styrene, some manufacturers shut down or reduced load production, the operating rates of the three major downstream increased, the demand reached the high value in the year, and the styrene market rebounded when the port inventory fell to a low level. Part III From late September to December, the port inventory of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, and the weak price could not provide effective support for styrene. Tianjin Dagu styrene plant was restarted, domestic styrene supply increased simultaneously, styrene inventory pressure was high, and spot prices continued to decline.

The production of styrene in 2022 is less than expected, the continuous rise of raw material market and the loss of unit profits are the main influencing factors. Luoyang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Anqing Petrochemical were delayed to 23 years, and Maoming Petrochemical has stopped due to accidents after a short period of operation. In the coming 2023, styrene is still in a large production cycle, and the industrial chain will also usher in centralized production. The capacity growth of each core link in the upstream and downstream may reach a high level. Styrene is rapidly moving towards supply saturation, or even excess.

styrene

In the first 10 months of this year, China’s styrene imports totaled 924300 tons and exports 542400 tons. In 2022, the import volume of styrene will decrease significantly. With the increase of domestic styrene production and the low level of overall operation of overseas units, the net import of styrene will decline year by year. The dependence on styrene import will gradually decrease. However, the international flow of goods will continue, forming a new arbitrage path. The export is related to the maintenance of overseas devices. The overseas maintenance is mainly concentrated in spring. Combined with the seasonality of styrene export in the past two years, it is expected that the large-scale export in 23 years will also be concentrated in March June.

According to the styrene data analysts of the business community, the price of styrene will rise first and then fall in 2022. The increase in exports will drive the rise, and the cost support will become weak after being strong in the early stage. As 2023 approaches, the price of styrene in the next year will be adjusted and balanced by the guidance of crude oil cost, import volume, port inventory and the enthusiasm of downstream goods. At present, the pure benzene supply increment is expected to decline, and the cost support is poor. Downstream demand remains just in demand. In December, the styrene plant will restart more, and it is expected that the styrene will decline in a short time.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly, and the domestic rare earth market rose. On December 8, the rare earth index was 645 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 35.95% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 138.01% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide rose slightly, and the price trend of metal praseodymium market was temporarily stable. As of September 9, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal had reached 825000 yuan/ton, up 2.45% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 682500 yuan/ton, up 2.25%; The price of neodymium oxide is 750000 yuan/ton, up 2.04%; The price of neodymium metal was 915000 yuan/ton, with the price trend rising 0.55%; The price of praseodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide was 690000 yuan/ton, up 2.22%.

Enquiries on the domestic light rare earth market increased. In addition, some production enterprises reduced their load and the supply decreased slightly. The market price of light rare earth rose slightly. The supply is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the adjustment of prevention and control policies, the manufacturer’s shipment has improved and downstream procurement has increased. Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants has decreased, and the purchasing sentiment has improved, which has led to an increase in orders. The bearers are reluctant to sell, and the light rare earth market is rising.

The price of dysprosium series of heavy rare earth in China rose slightly. As of the 9th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.38 million yuan/ton, up 3.30% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.335 million yuan/ton, up 1.97%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.045 million yuan/ton, up 1.84%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly increased. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.5 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.95 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth increased mainly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. Production enterprises started normal. Downstream procurement increased, and the market price increased. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the market price of heavy rare earth remains high.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the price of the domestic rare earth market rose mainly.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth will continue to develop. Recently, downstream businesses have gradually started their procurement mode. In the short term, the price of rare earth market will still rise. In the long term, the demand for rare earth will still be guaranteed, and they are optimistic about the development of rare earth industry.

This week, the lead market (12.02-12.09) moved up in a volatile way. The average price of the domestic market was 15520 yuan/ton last weekend and 15610 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.58%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season, the price has weakened.

Lead futures market this week

Variety./Closing price./Compared with the same period of last week./Inventory./Compared with the same period of last week

Shanghai lead./15820 yuan/ton./+60 yuan/ton./44001 tons./+5313

London lead./2167 dollars/ton./- 46 dollars/ton./24350 tons./- 600

In terms of the futures market, the trend of the futures market was volatile this week, with a small fluctuation range of 2185-2240 dollars/ton. At the beginning of the week, affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the price of Lun Pb strengthened and reached a high in the past six months. Later, with the release of the good news, the price gradually fell. Near the weekend, the overseas data showed average performance and the trend was slightly consolidation.

Since the middle of November, as the weather turns cold, the peak season for battery enterprises is coming to an end, and the lead price has started to recover slightly due to the impact, but the overall price remains at a high level. In terms of supply, most primary lead enterprises maintain normal production at present, with little change in operating rate. Due to the limited transportation areas and the limited transportation of waste batteries, the renewable lead enterprises have a slight shortage of raw materials, and the recent construction has declined. In terms of downstream demand, as the weather turns cold, the battery production industry once again enters the seasonal slack season, with an obvious decline in the operating rate and the demand for lead ingots. In general, the lead ingot market has entered the off-season. Affected by this, the price of lead ingot has continued to decline in the near future. The short-term trend continues to follow the fluctuation of macro factors. In the long run, there is still some room for decline.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The top three commodities that rose were nickel (3.91%), dysprosium oxide (2.37%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (2.25%). There were 9 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and the top three products that declined were metal silicon (-2.77%), aluminum (-1.36%) and silver (-1.36%). The average rise or fall this week was 0.2%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 9, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18333.33 yuan/ton, 0.90% lower than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 3.51% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 9, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from the price of 25333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 25.00% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of refrigerant R22 is weak this week. The price of raw material trichloromethane continued to decline in December, falling 2.12% in the month as of December 9. Hydrofluoric acid operated slightly stronger in December, rising slightly by 0.22% overall. The cost of raw materials fell again. In addition, the overall demand for refrigerant in winter was light, and domestic R22 prices fluctuated slightly and weakened under the pressure of cost and demand.

As of December 9, the price of hydrofluoric acid had operated slightly and strongly, rising 0.22% slightly in the month. The price of trichloroethylene fell again in December, falling by about 4% as a whole. The cost price of raw materials declined slightly as a whole. The price of refrigerant R134a this week also weakened.

In terms of raw materials, in December, the domestic hydrofluoric acid was slightly stronger after its overall rise became stable, and the stabilizing price rise of hydrofluoric acid weakened the price support of domestic refrigerant R134a in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believed that the upstream raw material cost was slightly adjusted due to fluctuations. Winter was the low season for refrigerant demand. The downstream overall purchase and sales were cautious. Under the pressure of cost and demand, the domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a prices would continue to operate stably and weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic butadiene market price rose by a narrow margin. From December 2 to 9, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 6366 yuan/ton to 6566 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.14% in the cycle, 5.80% month on month and 13.48% year on year. The No. 1 unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Company was temporarily shut down due to the impact of an upstream emergency. The sudden positive supply side boosted the mentality of businessmen. The butadiene product quotations of the distribution companies of Sinopec, the main manufacturer, were raised by 300 yuan/ton, and traders took advantage of this.

On the cost side, the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level in the year. As of the 7th day, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 72.01 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 77.17 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The main transaction price of naphtha fell, while the downstream demand was just in demand, and some refineries reduced their prices for shipment. Butadiene costs have many negative factors.

On the supply side, affected by the upstream unexpected news, the 1 # 60000 t/a butadiene unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped temporarily on December 8. Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # and Fujian jointly repaired a set of units, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene industry decreased by 0.40%.

On the demand side, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China decreased significantly from 10880 yuan/ton to 10527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24%. Domestic SBR prices were mainly sorted out, with the price dropping 0.22% from 10858 yuan/ton to 10833 yuan/ton. The price of nitrile rubber in China was stable, and remained at 15150 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream rubber industry has no obvious positive pull, and the product price has been sorted out at a low level, with about 60% starting. There is no favorable factor for butadiene demand.

In terms of external market: the closing price on December 8, while the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB South Korea reported 745-755 dollars/ton; China CFR quoted 755-765 US dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 495-505 dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euros/ton.

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia/. FOB Korea./765-775 US dollars/ton./0 yuan/ton

Asia./CFR China./755-765 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe and America./FOB Rotterdam./495-505 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe./FD Northwest Europe./535-545 euro/ton./0 euro/ton

Future market forecast shows that the port inventory increase, the main production enterprise Shenghong has output expectations, and the supply side lacks a long-term positive boost. Short term shocks attract some traders to buy, but the downstream trend is not good, and the just needed support is limited. Butadiene analysts from the business community expected that the short-term domestic butadiene market would be dominated by shocks.