According to the business agency data monitoring, the general plastic plate in August showed a continuous upward trend. The general plastics index was 764 points on August 1, 2020, and 799 points on August 31, 2020, with an overall increase of 4.62%. The main reasons for the collective rise of general plastics in August were as follows: first, affected by the rise of international crude oil, which benefited the whole petrochemical industry, large plastic and petrochemical plants increased the ex factory prices of raw materials, which boosted the market; secondly, the futures markets of LLDPE, PP and PVC all rose to different degrees, bringing certain benefits to the market; third, due to the impact of international events this month However, the arrival of imported goods is not optimistic. Among them, ABS and LDPE are the most affected. LDPE is mainly dependent on imports, while imported goods cannot be unloaded at the port, resulting in tight supply of goods. Finally, in September, the plastic market is about to usher in the traditional peak season. The downstream production is gradually increasing, and the market demand is expected to improve. Under multiple favorable conditions, general plastics rose strongly.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in August 2020, there were 7 kinds of goods rising and 0 kinds of falling goods in the general plastics price list, and 1 kind of commodity was up and down to 0. The main commodities that rose were ABS (14.73%), LDPE (9.99%) and HDPE (3.70%); the average rise and fall of this month was 4.48%. According to the data, general plastics have different degrees of rise, of which ABS and PE are the most prominent, occupying the top three of the plate. Tight supply is the main reason for the sharp rise of ABS and PE, and also has a certain driving effect on the upward trend of other general plastics market.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Supply of goods in short supply has not improved, and ABS rose a lot in August
ABS market strengthened in August, and most spot prices in the market increased by a large margin. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14800.00 yuan / ton, which was 14.73% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.
In the first ten days of August, the domestic ABS market price continued the consolidation of the previous month, and the offer fell slightly. After that, although the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate is still maintained at a high level, but the spot supply reduction is not improved, but intensified. Overseas public health events continued this month, which led to the poor arrival of imported goods. In addition, ABS inventory has been at a low level. Some domestic flooding has hindered the production of some polymerization plants, so that the recent supply situation has been tightened by multiple factors. At present, the business is in a steady state of mind, and the downstream factories are tentatively preparing goods, but they are still cautious.
Business agency analysts believe that: ABS market rose sharply in August, and the prices of all brands have a certain range of adjustment. In terms of cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials is mostly good, and the support for ABS on the cost side is acceptable. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream is cautious about the decrease of ABS supply, and the inquiry situation has increased. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted at a high level in the near future.
LDPE led the rise strongly in August, and the polyethylene market rose as a whole
In August, the center of gravity of the three major varieties in the spot market of polyethylene moved up as a whole. The ex factory price of LDPE increased significantly due to the shortage of goods. The high-pressure varieties increased by 9.99% in the month, ushering in the peak since 2020. The LLDPE and HDPE markets are dominated by this positive. At present, downstream demand is gradually improving, manufacturers’ orders are increasing, and the overall trading atmosphere of spot markets is improving.
In August, the PE market as a whole rose. LDPE in East China showed a continuous upward trend, while HDPE market showed a step-by-step upward trend. The trend of LLDPE was mainly followed by futures, which was slightly different from others, showing a downward first and then rising trend. And high pressure products rose most prominently. The market rose 300-1100 yuan / ton in August. Among them, the high-voltage market is one of the main reasons for its rise, because domestic equipment maintenance is more, and the import source cannot be unloaded at the port, resulting in tight supply of goods. During the month, the main and international crude oil of Liansu futures fluctuated and rose to the peak since March, which brought certain boost to the market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”, the northern plastic film has entered the peak season, and the market demand has increased. Petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex factory price for many times, and most of them follow the market, and the shipment performance is more positive. The order volume of downstream factories increased, the volume of goods taken increased, and the market volume increased compared with the previous period.
PE analysts of business agency believe: in September, with the gradual completion of petrochemical plant maintenance, market supply pressure has increased. However, the traditional peak season of “gold nine silver ten” has arrived, and the market demand is expected to grow at the same time. At present, the pressure of port inventory and production enterprises is not big, and the main contract of Liansu futures is up strongly, which boosts the market mentality. Downstream into the market positive, business mentality is strong. It is expected that the PE market will continue to rise in September, and the LDPE market will return to the era of 10000 yuan.
August PVC market shock rise, warm up “golden nine” coming
On August 27, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 6565 yuan / ton, which was 1.19% higher than that of 6487.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 2.18% month on month, and 1.61% lower than the same period last year.
In August, the PVC market first rose, then fell and then rose, showing a roller coaster market, quite volatile, and the overall center of gravity began to move up. This month’s rise was mainly driven by the strong volatility of PVC futures and the rising cost of raw materials. However, due to the constraints of consumption in the off-season, the upward range was not large, accompanied by a correction. The market fluctuated slightly, with a maximum amplitude of 2.41%, with an increase of about 150 yuan. In August, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased, and the preliminary maintenance enterprises began to operate successively. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the output of some manufacturers in some areas declined, and the pressure on the supply side was not great. At the same time, the social inventory continued to decline. Although there was a slight recovery, it still showed a downward trend year on year. The manufacturers had strong willingness to adjust the price, and the calcium carbide price at the raw material end rose by more than 4% in August, which had a good support for PVC. In August, the overall operating rate of downstream product enterprises did not change much. The real estate industry was still the main driving force for demand. Other product industries were not as expected and were not buying enough PVC. Therefore, PVC prices continued to rise without actual driving force. It is reasonable that PVC prices should be in the callback stage after rising in the middle of the year. After a short period of consolidation, PVC will rise again. Near the arrival of the “golden nine” peak season, the demand may increase, which will boost the market atmosphere. PVC may continue to fluctuate upward, and there is no lack of rising market.
| PVA |
PVC analysts believe that August PVC market ups and downs, the center of gravity began to move up, but the low-season downstream capacity to receive goods limited, inhibit the rise. In September, although the number of maintenance enterprises is decreasing, the demand side is gradually entering the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced, and there is no big contradiction. Under the situation of macro warming and strong futures fluctuation, the PVC spot market rate continues to fluctuate upward and is not easy to fall deeply. It is also necessary to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.
Good market in August
In August, the domestic PP market was more volatile and the spot prices of some brands rose slightly. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
In August, PP (wire drawing) market performance stable small rise, spot price adjustment. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other production enterprises decreased, while the decline rate of social inventory was slightly lower. Far upstream crude oil has a strong trend in the near future, forming a certain support for chemicals. In the first half of this month, some ports were prone to extreme weather, which affected the arrival of ships and cargoes, and the port inventory also declined. In the late middle of the year, there is a resumption of production of PP maintenance equipment. At present, the negative expectation of increasing PP supply is not obvious. The quotation of merchants is following up. At present, the downstream price reduction intention is obvious. It is expected that the upward adjustment range of PP (wire drawing) price may be narrowed.
PP business agency analysts believe: August domestic PP spot market trend shocks strong. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) fluctuated and rose, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, prices continued to callback. The current inventory decline, supply expansion expectations and futures rise and other mixed news at the same time. Downstream factory stock situation is OK, business offers have increased. PP spot price is expected to narrow the range of adjustment in the near future.
The international crude oil price fluctuated in August and the upward news was favorable to the plasticizing market
In August, the international crude oil market continued to release good news. The US crude oil inventory decreased sharply, the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeded the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and the crude oil production decreased Low. International crude oil prices rose in August, with WTI crude oil futures up 7.15%.
In August, the international crude oil market continued to be positive and stimulated, but the overall international crude oil market remained stable and did not form a continuous upward trend. It is expected that the crude oil price in September will still fluctuate at a high level, with limited support for the plastic market. However, in September, the plasticizer market ushered in the traditional peak season, and the terminal demand was expected to improve. With the increase of holidays, the film market demand was released. In the aftermarket, the market in September was still dominated by good news, and the general plastics market might continue to rise.
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