According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the price on April 1st.

The price of epoxy propane fluctuated slightly in April. In the first half of the year, cost support was still acceptable, with some supply side devices operating in a fluctuating manner. There was slight differentiation between the North and South markets, with tight spot supply in the South market and temporarily controllable inventory pressure in the North market. Downstream observers followed with caution, resulting in a narrow range and weak consolidation in the market. In the middle of the month, there was some support on the cost side, and factory inventory was slightly under pressure. Downstream customers waited and waited, but procurement follow-up was insufficient, resulting in a price decline. After the decline, downstream follow-up increased, and prices rebounded. In the latter half of the year, factory shipments were average, with some inventory accumulation and weak market atmosphere. After the decline, factory shipments were still acceptable, and prices rebounded.

Upstream propylene: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and fell in April. At the beginning of April, the market was average at 6848 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the average price was 6808 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.58%, which provided moderate support for the epoxy propane market.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current raw material propylene price is weak, with average cost support and stable supply. Downstream buyers need to follow up, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will be mainly wait-and-see in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news

guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market price of yellow phosphorus has remained stable this week, with an average price of 23060 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus has remained stable this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is light, and as the May Day holiday approaches, manufacturers are mainly placing preliminary orders. We will not provide an external quotation for now, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, and negotiations for post holiday orders are being held at lower prices. Market demand is light before the holiday. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 23500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized and operated steadily this week. The reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1042 yuan/ton. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is currently quiet. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range.

In terms of coke, the coke market in Shandong Port has been operating strongly this week. As of April 28th, the quasi first level outbound price of Shandong Port is around 2000-2050 yuan/ton, and the first level outbound price is 2100-2150 yuan/ton. The port market atmosphere is still good, and market demand is performing well. On the 28th, the freight cost from Shanxi to Rizhao Port remained stable at 190-195 yuan/ton today.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid has increased. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market on Monday was 6660 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6680 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.3% during the week. According to the phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society, the market is supported by pre existing demand, and the phosphoric acid market is operating steadily and steadily.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the pre holiday market demand is weak, and the trading in the yellow phosphorus market is slowing down. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will temporarily operate steadily in the short term, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

The recent slight rise in the epoxy propane market has weakened the stalemate. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 23, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 9145.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to last Thursday (April 18).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on April 23 was 6820.60, a decrease of 0.41% compared to April 1 (6848.60). In the recent stage, the price of raw material propylene has first increased and then decreased, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine has first decreased and then increased. The fluctuation of cost has a certain impact on the rise and fall of epoxy propane market prices, and downstream users are more concerned about the cost of epoxy propane.

Supply and demand side: Last Thursday, the supply side was mainly stable, with downstream follow-up still acceptable, and the focus of market negotiations slightly increased. After the rise, the trading atmosphere in the market slowed down, and downstream wait-and-see buying decreased. This week, the factory’s shipments were average, and downstream procurement mentality was cautious with limited follow-up. The supply side was slightly under pressure, and the market atmosphere was weak. The company’s quotation was lowered.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support still exists, and downstream wait-and-see follow-up has increased. The market transaction atmosphere is still good, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market may experience a narrow upward trend in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to the downstream pre holiday stocking situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 1st to 22nd, 2024, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China continued to rise, with a market price of 224960 yuan/ton on the 1st and 281310 yuan/ton on the 22nd. The cumulative increase in April was 25.05%, with a single day increase of 6.31% on the 22nd.

The tin market has been rising for four consecutive weeks

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly K-bar chart of Business Society, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for four consecutive weeks since April.

Supply: Myanmar’s ban on mining combined with Indonesia’s extension of approval for tight tin supply

In terms of tin mining: Starting from August 2023, the Wa State of Myanmar suspended all mining activities of mineral resources. In April 24, the Wa State reiterated the ban on tin mining and showed a strong attitude towards it. The tin ore production in the Wa region accounts for about 95% of Myanmar’s national production, and Myanmar is the first source of tin ore imports in China. The reiteration of the Wa ban has once again raised concerns in the market about future tin ore supply.

In terms of refined tin: Starting from 2024, the validity period of mining licenses in Indonesia will be extended to three years to improve the efficiency of mining quota issuance and prolong the approval process of existing enterprises. As a result, the export volume of refined tin in Indonesia has significantly declined after entering 24 years, with an export volume of 0.4 tons in January 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 99%; The export volume in February was 55 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53%. The main source of refined tin imports in China is Indonesia, accounting for about 70% of the total. The implementation of this policy has a significant impact on both domestic and international markets.

LME Tin Inventory

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of April 22, LME’s tin inventory was 4190 tons, a decrease of approximately 45.5% from the 7685 tons at the beginning of the year. Supported by continuous destocking of LME tin inventory for 24 years, Lunxi continued to rise in April.

Demand: Terminal demand improved in the first quarter

At present, the main application area of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, it mainly includes solder, tin chemical industry, tinplate, etc. Among them, the proportion of solder is as high as 48%, followed by tin chemical industry accounting for 16%, tinplate accounting for 12%, and the total proportion of the three is about 76%. ITA states that nearly 50% of the global demand for tin comes from the soldering of electronic circuit boards, so the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. In downstream practical applications, tin has a relatively small overall proportion, so downstream has a strong acceptance of high prices, which is also a factor that enables tin prices to rise all the way.

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in March alone, the production of integrated circuits in China increased by 28.4%, reaching a historic high of 36.2 billion units. In the later stage, as the country’s investment in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and big data fields increases, the demand for tin solder in the domestic market will also steadily increase, which is undoubtedly a favorable factor for the demand of the tin industry chain.

Future prospects:

Supply side tin raw material supply is expected to shrink. In the first quarter of 2024, the electronics industry recovered on the demand side, and industries such as photovoltaics and artificial intelligence developed well, greatly promoting the growth of tin terminal consumption. The continuous decline of LME tin inventory for 24 years has also provided support for the rise in tin prices. But with the recent market price increase, the overall spot market trading has been weak, and downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most enterprises only maintain a small amount of tin ingots for basic needs, resulting in cold spot market trading and insufficient downstream purchasing power. On the night of the 22nd, the non ferrous metal futures market both inside and outside fell, with London Tin falling 3.6% and Shanghai Tin falling 2.52% as a result. Previously, non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with most commodities generally reaching temporary highs and lacking further upward momentum. On the morning of the 23rd, Shanghai tin fell by more than 2%, and the spot tin market price on the 23rd will follow suit, which may drive some spot market inquiries. In the long run, LME tin inventory continues to decline, and there is still upward potential in overseas markets. In the near future, tin will continue to follow the fluctuations of the market and maintain a wide range of volatility. In the future, we will focus on the impact of macro news on the overall market.

Low level consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the DOP price was 9780 yuan/ton, which is a low consolidation compared to April 15′s DOP price of 9800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%; Compared to April 1st, the DOP price of 9890 yuan/ton decreased by 1.11%. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; Plasticizer enterprises are currently operating steadily, with sufficient supply of plasticizer DOP; Downstream enterprise maintenance has led to a decrease in demand for plasticizers, a decrease in demand for cost increases, and a consolidation of low prices for plasticizer DOP.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 22, the quotation for isooctanol was 9640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the quotation of 9520 yuan/ton on April 15; Compared to April 1st, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and decreased by 4.17% to 10060 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, while the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and risen. With cost support, the downward pressure on isooctanol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; Downstream customers still have purchasing enthusiasm, while iso octanol manufacturers are actively shipping. The positive support for iso octanol is significant.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 22, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on April 15, which was 7725 yuan/ton; Compared to April 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.98% to 7587.50 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The supply and demand situation of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the price of phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the future.

Downstream enterprises have less than expected maintenance

This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased month on month, but the maintenance of enterprises did not meet expectations, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises increased year-on-year. The maintenance is mainly concentrated in mid April, and it is expected that the maintenance enterprises will gradually recover in the next week. The number of maintenance enterprises will decrease, and the expected output will increase, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increases; In terms of supply, the high starting point of plasticizer DOP is stable, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient; In terms of demand, PVC manufacturers have seen a decrease in production this week, and the expected resumption of production in the next week is expected. The demand for plasticizer DOP is expected to increase. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased, demand has increased, and it is expected that DOP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market has been experiencing significant stability and slight fluctuations recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands fluctuating. As of April 19th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7821.43 yuan/ton, up or down+0.74% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the international crude oil market is still operating at a high level due to geopolitical tensions, which has a strong support effect on the cost side of oil to PP production. The simultaneous strengthening of methanol and propane prices provides strong support for PP, while the cost support for PP remains consistently strong.

Overall, the active use of raw materials has strengthened support for the cost side of PP. The industry load has rebounded narrowly, with an average load of around 75% in recent days. The early production line maintenance was relatively concentrated, and companies such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo have maintenance plans. The market supply has gradually decreased, and recently the inventory position of production enterprises has decreased, reducing market supply pressure. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises is generally stable and small, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having comprehensive operating rates of about 43%, 65%, and 57%, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. The market for wire drawing materials is mainly focused on the cost side, and prices are narrow in consolidation.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 19th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also remained stable. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7675 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.66% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 0.49% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a narrow increase in load, with an average operating rate of around 30%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products is average, and it is expected that the fiber material market will continue the current consolidation market.

In terms of melt blown materials, the market for melt blown PP has been stable and rising recently. As of April 19th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8037.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.31%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.03%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. Melt blown materials are more inclined to link with the cost side market, and it is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to maintain stability and consolidate the market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has remained stable with minor fluctuations this week. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The supply of goods has been tightened, and the supply pressure has been partially alleviated. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is necessary to maintain production. The on-site momentum is average. It is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The PTFE market remained stable this week. According to statistics from Business Society, as of April 18th, the market price of PTFE suspended particles remained around 36500-50000 yuan/ton.

2、 Influencing factors:

Raw material side: The market price of R22 raw material side remains stable, with high costs under pressure, and companies have a strong bullish sentiment. Downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement being the main focus. At present, there is sufficient inventory, mainly focused on digesting inventory. Enterprises still have a wait-and-see mentality, and the market fluctuations are not significant. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe R22 was 24833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% compared to the beginning of this month (24166.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream end: Downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement as the main focus, and enterprises still have a wait-and-see mentality.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s PTFE analyst believes that the high prices of raw materials support weak downstream demand, and the PTFE market has remained stable in recent times.

Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has experienced a stalemate in trading performance, coupled with increased inventory pressure. The market is gradually showing a state of price without market, and spot prices in the market are declining. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol in Shengyishe was 12233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.94% compared to the beginning of this month (12350.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

Recently, the price of acetic acid, a raw material for vinyl acetate, has significantly increased. As of April 17th, the benchmark price for acetic acid in Shengyishe was 3450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.29% compared to the beginning of this month (3100.00 yuan/ton). Although the downstream purchasing sentiment is gradually weakening, the inventory in the eastern region is already tight, and some devices have unexpectedly reduced their load and stopped, making the supply of goods increasingly tight. It is expected that the market will still have a high possibility of rising this week.

The market price of calcium carbide is also stabilizing and rising. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the beginning of this month (3000.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side:

The downstream market is showing a weak situation, and the market is gradually starting to operate, but the overall situation is not as good as in previous years. The usage has not improved, and the purchasing willingness is not good, making it difficult to increase the volume. Enterprises are offering discounts to sell. The bearish demand side affects the polyvinyl alcohol market.

Although the current price of polyvinyl alcohol has been repeatedly lowered, there is still profit margin. Some manufacturers sell at low prices, but the overall trading volume of the polyvinyl alcohol market is light. Traders and downstream traders are cautious in their operations. After the price reduction, the market’s bottom buying sentiment is highlighted, and the purchasing power of domestic and foreign spot purchases is expected to strengthen, boosting market confidence.

In summary, the supply of polyvinyl alcohol is relatively sufficient; In terms of demand, downstream factories purchase on demand and still maintain a cautious attitude towards procurement. Currently, the main downstream factories are operating normally, and the operating rate of terminal factories is low, resulting in a lack of enthusiasm for procurement; Supported by the favorable impact of raw material prices, it is expected that the price of polyvinyl alcohol 1799 may consolidate next week or there is a possibility of an upward trend in the short term. The expected transaction center is between 12200-12800 yuan/ton.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 92.5 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 53.28% year-on-year.

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at an average level and low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with expectations of an increase and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has recently stabilized at a high level. The market price is 1818 yuan/ton, and the weekend price increased by 0.69% year-on-year. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sodium acetate maintained a downward trend in mid April. As of April 15th, 25% liquid sodium acetate in China was priced at 800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 27 yuan per ton from 827 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month. From the annual trend, the current price is at a low level.

From the perspective of raw materials, the upstream pure alkali market is weak and stable, with poor transaction performance, and some enterprises have shut down their facilities. The downstream glass production line remains stable, and the supply-demand relationship is gradually balanced.

According to analysts from Business Society’s sodium acetate data, upstream soda ash maintenance companies will gradually recover in the later stage, with an expected increase in raw material soda ash supply, stable glass photovoltaic production lines, and good demand in the soda ash market, which will provide support for the sodium acetate market. The price of sodium acetate is expected to fluctuate narrowly.