1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. Overall, the market remained stable. With the increase of autumn fertilizer market demand, the inventory pressure is small. Spot supply overall stable, in the cost price continued to rise, the overall price is at a high level. At present, the price of potassium sulfate in water salt system is tight, and the supply of goods in Qinghai Province is in short supply. Luo potassium has already exceeded the annual sales plan. Currently, it is mainly to ship Southern tobacco bills. Since October 22, 2020, the selling price of ROC potassium sulfate products of SDIC will be increased by 100 yuan / ton.

From January to September, China’s total export volume of potassium sulfate was 291000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, or about 4%, compared with 279000 tons in the same period last year. According to statistics, at present, the effective production capacity of domestic potassium sulfate is nearly 7 million tons, and the new production capacity under construction and planned is at least 1 million tons, while the domestic consumption is only about 4 million tons. Compared with this, the export volume is just a comfort.

The domestic market price of potassium chloride showed a slight upward trend. In terms of domestic potassium, Salt Lake plants are in normal production, while in terms of 60% powder and imported potassium, the prices of some products have increased. The downstream demand remained stable and many winter storage sites were opened, but the progress was slow and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analysts of the business club believe that: Although the downstream demand has recovered, but there is a lot of wait-and-see mentality, and the procurement is not active enough, and the potassium sulfate market basically remains stable in the short term,.

As of October 28, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2636 yuan / ton, up 1.15% compared with the same period last week and 3.26% higher than that at the beginning of this month. At present, there are 2550-2680 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2600-2680 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2720-2820 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2450-2500 yuan / ton in Henan, 2600 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2150 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2500

Jiantao, Hebei Province

Tianjin Bohua 35 500

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1300

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1300

Domestic acetic acid market spot supply continues to be tight, acetic acid price high upward, market start stable, industry inventory low. With the enterprises successively deliver export orders and the increase of downstream domestic demand, the supply tension in the industry is intensified, and the acetic acid production enterprises have good intention to stand out.

The methanol market is running at a high level, and the market inventory is low. Downstream enterprises and traders are active in purchasing, and the methanol market is stable in a short period of time. At present, it is about 1917 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the inventory of acetic acid downstream markets such as vinyl acetate and acetate is gradually reduced, the demand in the terminal market is good, and the spot supply in the market is limited. It is expected that the stock market will still be strong in the short term.

Recently, the supply of acetic acid in the international market is tight, and the price of acetic acid in various regions is running steadily. At present, the acetic acid Market in Asia is about 330-380 US dollars / ton; the European market is about 560 euro / ton; and the North American market is about 520 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the domestic acetic acid market starts stably, there will be no big fluctuation in a short time, the purchase of downstream demand side is stable and rising, and the inventory in the industry is low. It is expected that the acetic acid market will still run stably in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. The quoted price rose from 1706.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1743.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 36.66 yuan / ton or 2.15%, and 1.13% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on October 23 was 81.09.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1740 yuan / ton, which was increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1750 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1740 yuan / ton this weekend, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the international level, the final confirmed quantity of RCF urea in India is 2184000 tons, and the final supply quantity of China is still to be confirmed.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain: the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose, with the price of liquefied natural gas rising from 2990.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3223.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 7.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.12% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, with the quoted price of 3200.00 yuan / ton, up 1.59% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.20% from 5566.67 at the beginning of the week to 5633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the market of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. According to urea analysts of the business agency, the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise mainly. Next, it is necessary to wait for the final supply volume of India’s bidding.

Although the price adjustment of domestic oil products ushered in an upward adjustment, the increase was limited, and the international crude oil price fell, and the domestic oil product market price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on October 23 was 5220 yuan / ton, down 1.64% from the beginning of the week; on October 23, the price of diesel oil was 4573 yuan / ton, down 2.00% from the beginning of the week.

As of October 16, Cushing’s crude oil inventory increased by 975000 barrels in the week; the implementation rate of OPEC member states’ production reduction in September was as high as 102%, but the oil market was dragged down by the second epidemic in Europe, and crude oil demand continued to decline; the international crude oil price fell this week, WTI crude oil price fell by 3.09%, Brent crude oil price fell by 2.00%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic weather and temperature are falling, and there are no holidays in the near future. The domestic gasoline market demand returns to the rigid demand, which lacks a positive boost. In addition, the international crude oil falls, and the terminal market just needs to replenish. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather is getting colder, and outdoor operations such as road engineering and infrastructure construction enter the rush period, so the demand for diesel is good. On the whole, diesel demand is better than gasoline market demand. Affected by the drop in crude oil prices, domestic diesel prices fell slightly this week.

On October 23, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%. Although the start-up load of the refinery decreased slightly, it still maintained a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was relatively sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes: in the short term, international crude oil will still be suppressed by demand, the supply side will not be good, and the domestic demand for refined oil will not be supported by favorable factors. It is expected that the price of domestic oil products will continue to decline steadily.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 23, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6566.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 19, the average price decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.50%; compared with the price on October 1, the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.49%; and the maximum amplitude from October 1 to October 22 was 8.11%.

Domestic butanone market fell slightly this week

Since the beginning of this week, the overall domestic butanone market has been running steadily at a high level. The overall inventory of domestic factories is generally general, and there are not many new orders in the market. The previous orders have been successively executed. The confidence of the industry is still good, and the butanone market is running smoothly. Until the 22nd, the domestic butanone market showed a slight negative decline, and the butanone market in North China was weak and fell. The reference of butanone ex factory price was 6400-6600 yuan / ton, while that of East China was loose and downward. The ex factory price reference of butanone was 6400-6500 yuan / ton. The market of butanone in South China was temporarily stable, with the ex factory price of butanone at 6600-6700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of October 23, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6566.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 19, the weekly average price of butanone decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.50%.

On the upstream side, on October 21, the domestic LPG market in Shandong was mainly stable, with some rising slightly. At present, the mainstream transaction price was maintained at around 3050-3100 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere was good. Lower reaches of the market enthusiasm is good, manufacturers shipping smoothly.

In terms of crude oil, on October 22, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.64/barrel, up $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 42.46 US dollars / barrel, up 0.73 US dollars. International oil prices rose on Thursday, boosted by the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan, but at the same time, concerns about slowing fuel demand triggered by the epidemic limited the rise in oil prices, which failed to recover the decline of the previous trading day.

Few new orders, more attention to inventory

The short-term operation of butanone is expected to be low

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (October 21): 15766.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market rose sharply, with the mainstream average price at 17100.00/t, up 0.20% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was more favorable; on the other hand, with the increase of downstream rubber product operating rate after the festival, the inquiry for NBR increased, and the demand side supported the high price of NBR; finally, the ex factory price of NBR was increased, and traders’ offers continued to rise. To sum up, the price of NBR continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market quotation increased, Lanhua NBR 3308 mainstream reported 16500 ~ 16800 yuan / T, Nandi 1052 mainstream reported 18000 ~ 18500 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: the cost side is high, the demand side is stable, and the market price of nitrile rubber is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 526 yuan / ton on October 12, and 560 yuan / ton on October 16. The price rose by 6.33% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market of coking grade ammonium sulfate turned better, and the price began to rise. The main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 480-550 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 540-580 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Province is 410-490 yuan, and that of Northeast China is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is stable and small. The market of compound fertilizer raw materials rose steadily this week with good cost support. The meeting of phosphate and compound fertilizer was postponed, and the market trend of compound fertilizer was not clear. In the short term, Hefei market will adjust slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate inventory is less, the market shipment is good, the market trend is up. There are many export orders and high price of ammonium sulfate. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will rise steadily in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will mainly run smoothly.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (October 19): 2733.33 yuan / ton

On October 19, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on October 16. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, the price of plasticizer DOP resumed to rise in October, DOP market performance was strong, and the price was strong. As of October 16, the DOP price was 7466.67 yuan / ton, up 2.99% compared with 7250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1).

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that DOP raw material phthalic anhydride market showed strong performance in October, with phthalic anhydride price rising by 2.94%, and DOP cost rising, which has certain driving force support for DOP market.

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol market showed a strong performance in October. The octanol price recovered to rise by 1.30%. DOP cost rose and DOP was supported by the rise.

Downstream market of industrial chain

According to the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market rose sharply in October, the PVC price hit the bottom and rebounded to rise, up 4.33%. The PVC market fluctuated and rose. The overall PVC market rose strongly, which was good for the plasticizer DOP market.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, in October, DOP raw materials octanol and phthalic anhydride prices rose, phthalic anhydride and octanol market continued strong performance, shock rise, DOP cost rise; downstream, PVC prices rose sharply, PVC market strengthened, DOP downstream demand rose. Generally speaking, the DOP industry chain is favorable and supported continuously. The motive force of DOP rising is larger, and the price of DOP is rising, but the overall DOP market is rising strongly.

In the first eight months of this year, China’s natural gas imports rose. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China’s natural gas import volume in August 2020 was 9.36 million tons, up 13.2% over the same period last year. Among them, 5.96 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 3.4 million tons of gaseous natural gas (PNG) were imported. From January to August this year, China’s natural gas imports totaled 65.07 million tons, up 3.3% over the same period last year.

According to customs data, LNG import volume in August was 5.96 million tons, up 16.3% over the same period last year, accounting for 63.63% of the total natural gas import volume in that month. “The main reason for the rise in imports is that the international spot price of LNG in August is still at a low level. The low price of LNG spot resources has boosted the purchasing willingness of Chinese buyers. In addition, the monthly planned purchase volume of several import enterprises has increased compared with last year.” In terms of LNG production capacity of 5 million, the LNG plant in Hubei Province is shut down to a certain extent. Hubei Huanggang LNG liquid plant resources mainly flow into Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Anhui and other places, and has a common radiation area with some receiving stations in South China and East China.

“The growth of domestic demand in August also supported the growth of LNG import to a certain extent.” Lu Na said that due to the improved weather in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, the demand for vehicles picked up; the demand for urban fuel repair depots in East China increased in August; and the demand for power plants in South China was strong, all of which led to a higher LNG import volume in August than in July.

It is understood that Australia is still China’s largest LNG supplier in terms of LNG import source, but its share has declined. According to the data, 42.07% of China’s LNG came from Australia in August, an increase of 6.96% year-on-year; in August, Malaysia became the second largest supplier of China’s LNG import, accounting for 11.71% of the total LNG import volume of that month; and the next LNG supplier was Indonesia, accounting for 9.74% of the total LNG import volume of that month. In addition, it is noteworthy that China’s LNG imports from the Russian Federation accounted for 9.16% of the total LNG imports in August, ranking fourth. “Under the increasingly tense international situation, the diversification of LNG resource portfolio supply has enhanced China’s LNG supply elasticity and avoided being dominated by large resource portfolio suppliers.” According to Lu Na, China’s LNG imports from 14 countries in August, an increase of four over the previous month.

China imported 3.4 million tons of gaseous natural gas in August, up 8.0% over the same period last year. “As China imported only 13000 tons of natural gas from Kazakhstan in July, and resumed its import volume in August, which was 825800 tons, leading to large fluctuations in the import of gaseous natural gas in August.” Lu Na said that in August, the country’s general high temperature, residents and urban electricity demand increased significantly, leading to a substantial increase in gas-fired power generation demand. In addition, due to the support of rising sea gas prices in East China and North China, pipeline gas prices have been reduced in some areas, resulting in the economic performance of pipeline gas; some urban gas users and industrial users have switched back to the pipeline gas source, resulting in an increase in pipeline gas import compared with last month.

Lu Na believes that China’s natural gas imports will decline slightly in September 2020, but will increase steadily from October to December. According to the data monitoring of jinlianchuang, LNG import in September was about 5.481 million tons, which was a narrow decline compared with August. Secondly, Siberian power carried out routine maintenance from September 15 to September 22, and the import of gaseous natural gas will decline. In the next three months, the demand for heating in winter will increase, so China’s natural gas imports will continue to increase from October to December.