The domestic acetone market rose and then fell back, with Sinopec East China listed at 5800 yuan/ton and Sinopec North China listed at 5800-5850 yuan/ton. As the National Day holiday approaches, some downstream factories are restocking, and the market trading atmosphere is improving. Traders’ intention to lower their prices has weakened, resulting in a slight increase in offers. Sinopec has adjusted its listed price due to market influence, and it is expected that acetone will remain stable today. More market conditions are waiting for further clarification after the National Day holiday, and the market price in East China is expected to be between 5650-5700 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market reversed its decline this week (9.23-27), with prices rebounding at the bottom. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5190 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: The PVC spot market has performed strongly this week, reversing the previous decline. Driven by the futures market, the spot market has been climbing steadily this week. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. Enterprises that had previously reduced their operating costs have also taken action to increase their operating costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

On the cost side: This week, the market price of calcium carbide has also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.53% according to monitoring by Business Society. The increase in downstream procurement volume after the holiday has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5250-5380 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts from the business community believe that the PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term. The operating rate of manufacturers is generally higher than that before the Mid Autumn Festival this week. Although the inventory of enterprises has been depleted, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the emotional improvement brought by the introduction of stimulus measures, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. With the downstream facing the weakening impact of holiday construction, the positive support effect is not obvious. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

The market price of epichlorohydrin increased in September. Multiple production enterprises are undergoing equipment maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. Xinyue, Binhua and other facilities operate with reduced load. The decrease in supply has caused traders to push up market prices. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8525 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.73% compared to the beginning of this month (7987.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the propylene market price has fluctuated and declined. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6690.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The consolidation and operation of the downstream epoxy resin market is the main focus, with a production capacity utilization rate of over 50%. There is sufficient inventory, and some factories are temporarily shutting down to adjust the load of their equipment under inventory pressure. Downstream terminal inquiries are not active, cautious procurement of raw materials, insufficient follow-up on new orders, and weak signing volume.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that there is still cost pressure on epoxy chloropropane, insufficient follow-up of downstream new orders, cautious procurement of raw materials, and the main demand for transactions. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy chloropropane market will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 833 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.35% compared to last year. On September 19th, the chemical index was 842 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 39.86% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 40.80% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 780-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 820-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2300-2350 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, caustic soda will maintain a reasonable inventory, with downstream purchases mainly based on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 37th week of 2024 (9.9-9.13), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-2.22%), PVC (-0.80%), and calcium carbide (-0.63%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.61%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and the inventory of caustic soda has remained stable. Downstream consumers are mainly cautious and watching, and the overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain the consolidation of caustic soda prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has risen significantly in recent days (9.9-9.18). As of September 18th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16237 yuan/ton, up 6.60% from 15232 yuan/ton on September 9th. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials have significantly increased during the cycle; On the other hand, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to decline; In addition, the stable operation of downstream tires has provided strong support for the demand of natural rubber, and the price of natural rubber has risen significantly due to cost support and supply and demand support.

Recently, the poor weather in domestic and international production areas has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials, resulting in a significant increase in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of September 18th, the price of Thai glue is 72.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 69.50 baht/kg on September 9th; As of September 18th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 16800 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the price of 14100 yuan/ton on September 9th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 15, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 430100 tons, a decrease of 2.74% compared to the previous period.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained stable production, facing the urgent demand support of the natural rubber market. As of September 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP rebounded and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 8th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the DOP price dropped by 8726.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58%. DOP prices rebounded and rose this week. Since September, the price of raw material isooctanol has continued to decline, the profit margin of plasticizer equipment has expanded, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products has increased compared to August. Driven by profits, the operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased. This week, the price of raw material isooctanol rebounded and stopped falling, while the price of plasticizer DOP rebounded and rose.

Expected increase in DOP supply this week

With the continuous decline in isooctanol prices in September, the profit margin of plasticizer DOP devices has expanded, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products has increased compared to August. Driven by profits, the operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the expected supply of plasticizers has increased.

Raw material costs rebound and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of isooctanol was 7916.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol was 7983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%. This week, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose. This week, the production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, with an increase in isooctanol supply, an increase in downstream plasticizer DOP gross profit, an increase in DOP operating rate, an increase in demand for isooctanol, a double increase in isooctanol supply and demand, and a rebound in isooctanol prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from the price of 7462.50 yuan/ton on September 6th. This week, the price of ortho xylene was quoted at 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.90% compared to last week. The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of goods and queuing up for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride and increased upward pressure on its price.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose this week, while the price of phthalic anhydride slightly decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; In terms of supply, the expected increase in production by plasticizer DOP manufacturers has led to an increase in DOP supply. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain strong and stabilize in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (9.2-9.9). On September 2nd, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.49% from 6360 yuan/ton on September 9th. The mixed xylene market continued to operate weakly in this cycle, with market prices experiencing a wide decline. As of September 9th, the mainstream price range for xylene in the East China region was 6380-6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The crude oil market continued to decline during the week, dragging down market sentiment. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions have been continuously lowered, and the current market atmosphere is weak. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined, partly due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Libya announced that it is expected to resolve restrictions on crude oil exports, easing the tight supply of crude oil and causing a significant drop in international oil prices. On the other hand, there are concerns that China’s crude oil demand may not meet expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, which will drag down the crude oil market. As of September 6th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.67 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $71.06 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been significantly reduced this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of September 9th, East China Company quoted 6300 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6450-6550 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The phthalic anhydride and xylene markets are operating weakly

As of September 6th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the phthalic anhydride method was 7462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the price of ortho xylene dropped by 200 yuan/ton, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased, causing a further decline in the phthalic anhydride market. In September, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7300-7500 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

On September 9th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to September 2nd. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $865-867/ton as of September 6th, a cumulative decrease of $62/ton from $927-929/ton on August 30th.

On Friday (September 6th), the Asian xylene market closed lower: FOB Korea closed at $747-749/ton in September, a decrease of $3/ton; CFR China closed at $761/ton in September, a decrease of $8/ton.

Market forecast: The crude oil market continues to decline, dragging down the weak operation of the market. In recent times, the supply in the Shandong market has stabilized, and refineries have strengthened their pricing mentality. There are shipping schedules arriving at ports in the East China market, and inventory has slightly increased. Some goods will still resist ports in the future, and the market expects loose supply. The overall weakness of the East China market. The demand side has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, there are still negative factors in the xylene market, and it is expected that prices will remain weak in the short term. The focus will be on downstream acquisition in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this week. On September 2nd, the market price of aniline was 10470 yuan/ton, and on September 6th it was 10675 yuan/ton. The price cycle increased by 1.91% and decreased by 11.23% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market continued to rise this week. The reduction in aniline supply from the East China factory, coupled with short shutdowns in other regions, has tightened supply and boosted market confidence. Upstream goods flow smoothly, downstream actively enters the market, low-priced goods flow well, and aniline prices continue to rise.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has shown a strong trend, with increased support for aniline. On August 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8438 yuan/ton, and on September 6th, the average price of pure benzene was 8652 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the purchase and sales of aniline market are stable, with the market mainly digesting the increase. The inventory in the market is not high, and due to the high price, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually becoming stronger. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and the supply and demand changes in the market will be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 20300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 20660 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.36%. On August 29th, the bromine commodity index was 72.49, a decrease of 0.14 points from yesterday, a decrease of 70.43% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 23.03% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine has risen this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 20000-20800 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the supply of bromine decreased. In terms of supply, due to irregular rainfall, brine bromine enterprises reduced production, and seawater bromine also reduced production due to rainwater. The rainfall is still relatively high, and it is expected that there will be little change in production; In addition, the amount of imported bromine arriving at the port is gradually decreasing, and the domestic bromine inventory is decreasing. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been mainly purchasing on demand recently, with average demand. At the beginning of the month, the price of bromine rose. In the middle and late months, the overall inventory in the region remained stable, and domestic bromine production remained stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur increased in August. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1275 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of use was 1435 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 12.55% and a year-on-year increase of 31.25%. The sulfur market has a good trading atmosphere, with sulfur companies actively shipping and downstream manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices have recently risen this month. Affected by precipitation this month, the supply of bromine has decreased and prices have risen. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is cautious in procurement. Recently, the price of bromine in the market has been steadily running, with overall stable supply and sufficient supply. Strong supply and weak demand are expected, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that the short-term price of bromine may consolidate, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 18066 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 18033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 0.18%.

This month’s market analysis

Affected by the traditional off-season in August, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is almost in a wait-and-see attitude. Factory shipments are generally average. Magnesium prices continued to decline in mid month, falling below the factory cost line. During this period, trading companies increased their inventory. On the last weekend of August, the price of magnesium ingots experienced a long-term consolidation in the early stage and ushered in a wave of upward trend. On the first day of this week, the ex factory price experienced the largest increase since the start of the off-season, rising by 200-500 yuan per day.

Supply and demand side

The market confidence has been boosted by the atmosphere of gold, silver, and silver. From the perspective of supply and demand, there has been no significant improvement in current demand. In the absence of strong and strong support, magnesium prices encountered resistance in their upward trend. In the last week, factories made slight price concessions, but the overall market has a strong willingness to raise prices. The operating rate of magnesium alloy die-casting customers has increased, and demand is gradually improving.

In terms of raw materials

The silicon iron market rose first and then fell in August. At the beginning of the month, thanks to the news that some factories in Zhongwei had stopped production and reduced production, and the expectation of production reduction in the later period, the futures performance was quite awesome, the panel price rose significantly, and the spot price also rose. But the good times didn’t last long, as the pessimistic performance of black series futures had a “drag” on ferrosilicon futures. In addition, August was the traditional off-season for demand in the industry, and news of production cuts and maintenance on the demand side was also reported one after another. The actual market demand still needed improvement, and the industry sentiment was pessimistic, resulting in a decrease in transaction prices.

At the beginning of August, the Lantan market experienced a downward trend. Under the weak support from both the cost and demand sides, the Lan Charcoal market continues to be bearish. Downstream mainstream calcium carbide enterprises have lowered the purchase price of small and medium-sized materials by 50 yuan/ton. As a result, enterprises have gradually implemented the reduction, and the fourth round of price cuts by Lan Charcoal has basically been fully implemented. As of August 30th, the current price of intermediate materials in Shenmu market is 790-860 yuan/ton, the price of small materials is 775-850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coke surface is 630-680 yuan/ton, all of which are cash inclusive of tax at the factory price. The current price for medium materials in Fugu market is 850-930 yuan/ton, for small materials it is 810-950 yuan/ton, and for coke surface it is 660-730 yuan/ton. All of the above prices are ex factory cash inclusive of tax.

Future forecast

It is expected that overseas market demand will ease in September. In the short term, the domestic magnesium ingot market is generally operating in a stable trend. Looking forward to the trend of the Golden September market.