According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands generally increasing. As of May 30th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7964.29 yuan/ton, a+1.55% increase or decrease from the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, international crude oil prices weakened at the beginning of the month due to the downward trend. Subsequently, due to the expectation of OPEC+production reduction and the influence of international geopolitical factors, the market rose, providing support for the PP market to rebound. In the second half of the month, domestic port inventories of propane decreased and prices increased. At the same time, the price of propylene increased significantly in May, and overall, the cost support for PP was relatively strong during the month.

Overall, the raw material market is active and provides strong support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, there has been a slight decline. Due to maintenance by enterprises such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Ningbo Jinfa, the average load at the end of the month has decreased slightly to around 72% compared to before. The inventory position of the production enterprise is still acceptable, and the supply pressure is average. However, there may be a partial return to production capacity in the later stage, which may cause a certain degree of supply increase. The strong macro expectations in the real estate and other industries in the second half of the month are the main driving force for the upward trend of PP. However, the load on end enterprises has generally remained stable, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having a comprehensive operating rate of about 42%, 65%, and 57% at the end of the month, respectively. The demand is limited, and enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on basic needs, resulting in a moderate trading atmosphere.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 30th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has fluctuated and increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7775 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.65% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.36% compared to the same period last year. Within the month, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises for PP fiber materials have a stable load, with an average operating rate of around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and the upward trend is mainly driven by macro expectations. It is expected that the future market of fiber materials may still be constrained by weak demand and weak operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this week. As of May 30th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8075 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.47%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.22%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the digestion speed of terminal products in the future market will be slow, and melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the overall polypropylene market in May was strong and volatile. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is positive, and the cost side provides strong support for the market. There has been a narrow decline in the supply of goods, but there are expectations of an increase in the future. Currently, the supply pressure is not significant. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is essential to maintain production. The current strong macro weak reality on the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season market in the future, The PP market may stagnate and weaken.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market was downward in May. On May 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17133.33 yuan/ton yuan/ton, and on May 29th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16366.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market was weak and downward in May. Overall, the international export situation is still good, while the domestic terminal market is weak. In the first half of the year, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the titanium dioxide market, with major manufacturers mostly observing the pricing policies of leading companies. Currently, stability is the main focus in various markets. In the middle of the month, the market transaction prices were relatively flexible, and orders slightly improved compared to the previous ten days. The demand for goods was mainly in demand, but overall, the performance remained weak. In the latter half of the year, although the cost pressure on manufacturers of titanium dioxide has eased to some extent, terminal demand has continued to be poor, and the market focus has shifted downwards. Manufacturers have lowered their external quotations. As of now, most domestic sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 16000-16900 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15300 yuan/ton; The quoted price for chlorinated titanium dioxide is 19200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in April 2024 was 6771.35 tons, an increase of 22.15% year-on-year and a decrease of 35.29% month on month; In April, the import of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method reached 3019.91 tons, an increase of 26.30% compared to the previous month; In April, the import of titanium dioxide produced by chlorination was 3751.44 tons, a decrease of 53.53% compared to the previous month. From January to April 2024, China imported approximately 31100 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 66.12% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume increased by approximately 12400 tons.

In April 2024, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 157400 tons, a decrease of 19.74% compared to the previous month and an increase of 22.15% compared to the same period last year; In April, the export of sulfuric acid based titanium dioxide reached 125200 tons, a decrease of 17.31% compared to the previous month; In April, the export of chlorinated titanium dioxide reached 32200 tons, a decrease of 27.97% compared to the previous month. From January to April 2024, China exported approximately 646900 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 14.30%, and the export volume increased by approximately 80900 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region fell in May. The titanium ore market in Panxi region is in a weak and stable state, and the production of titanium ore is basically stable. Environmental inspection in Yunnan region shows that mining operations are still insufficient. However, downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation, with poor market demand. The sentiment of price pressure in the titanium concentrate market is strong, and the market is cautious in purchasing and observing. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2240-2260 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate may continue to operate weakly and steadily, and the specific actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

According to customs data, in April 2024, China imported 328600 tons of titanium ore, a decrease of 5.09% year-on-year and 31.39% month on month, with a monthly average price of 333.09 US dollars per ton; From January to April 2024, China imported a total of approximately 1.5034 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%, and the import volume increased by approximately 53500 tons.

In April 2024, China exported 6778.46 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 419.12% year-on-year and a decrease of 43.77% month on month; From January to April 2024, China exported approximately 21800 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 80.06% year-on-year, with an increase of approximately 9700 tons in export volume.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell in May. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 272.5 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 247.5 yuan/ton on May 29th. The price fell by 9.17% during the month. Some maintenance enterprises in the early stage of sulfuric acid production have resumed, and the supply of sulfuric acid is sufficient. The downstream titanium dioxide market is weak, with significant cost pressure on enterprises. The demand for sulfuric acid has weakened, and the sulfuric acid market quotation has been lowered. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that this month, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has decreased, the sulfuric acid market price has fallen, and the cost support for titanium dioxide has weakened. The downstream market demand continues to be weak, and the market trading situation is light. Transactions are cautious and cautious, and titanium dioxide enterprises are under greater pressure to ship. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC increased in May. On May 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5556 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 6026 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 8.46% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market price rose in May. In the first half of this month, The spot market price of PVC has slightly increased, and the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement has increased. In mid month, the spot market price of PVC continued to rise, and from May 18th, the interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was lowered, resulting in positive macro news, The PVC futures market has performed outstandingly, with the spot market following suit and the overall market trend improving. In the latter half of the year, China Mobile purchased PVC pipes, and the TMA prices for auxiliary materials increased significantly, with the domestic spot market prices mainly rising. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.

In terms of imports and exports, according to the latest customs statistics, the import volume of pure PVC powder in China in April 2024 was 21600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 43.60% and a month on month decrease of 18.94%. The average monthly import price was 794.80 US dollars per ton. The export volume was 240300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.04% and a month on month decrease of 19.10%. The monthly average export price was 728.73 US dollars per ton. The total export volume from January to April was 866400 tons, and the total import volume was 83500 tons.

On May 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The US stock market is closed for one day due to Memorial Day. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel, up $1.04 or 1.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell first and then rose in May, and overall, the price fell. On May 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 2883.33 yuan/ton. On May 28th, it was 2833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73%. Overall, downstream procurement performance was average, and the price of calcium carbide in the market was relatively stagnant. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in the market will temporarily remain stable.

On a macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3092.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. From January to April, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6875.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. The newly constructed area of housing is 235.1 million square meters, a decrease of 24.6%. The completed area of houses is 188.6 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%.

The People’s Bank of China has decided to lower the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points starting from May 18, 2024. The interest rates of personal housing provident fund loans for first homes under 5 years (including 5 years) and over 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85%, respectively. The interest rates of personal housing provident fund loans for second homes under 5 years (including 5 years) and over 5 years will be adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325%, respectively.

According to the official website of China Mobile, China Mobile recently announced that the plastic pipe (PVC-U pipe) product procurement project from 2024 to 2025 has met the bidding conditions and is now undergoing open bidding. The announcement shows that China Mobile’s purchase of PVC-U pipes this time has a total scale of approximately 59400 kilometers and a project completion period of 2 years.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, the news for this month is mainly positive, with futures prices rising and driving spot market prices. The price of raw material calcium carbide has been lowered, and the cost support is average. The real estate data is still declining, and downstream demand is still mainly in the form of rigid demand. The sentiment of high price replenishment is not high, and downstream product enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.

According to the market data analysis system of Business Society, liquid sodium acetate showed a trend of first rising and then falling in May. The price of liquid sodium acetate in mid month was 787 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.21% from the beginning of the month. After the high price, the price fell. As of May 27th, the price of liquid sodium acetate was 762 yuan/ton, falling back to the same level as the beginning of the month.

From an upstream perspective, the supply and demand of raw material acetic acid were strong in the first half of the month, with inventory continuing to decline and prices showing strong performance. The mid month increase reached 4.49%, and the price of sodium acetate was subsequently raised. However, as the downstream of acetic acid resisted high prices, the market price stabilized, and the price decreased by 1.42% compared to the beginning of the month. The momentum for the continued increase of sodium acetate was insufficient.

In May, the continuous maintenance of soda ash enterprises led to a reduction in supply, resulting in a basic balance between production and sales. Manufacturers still held orders, inventory continued to decline, and prices rose strongly.

According to the data analyst of Shengyishe Sodium Acetate, the inventory pressure of upstream acetic acid enterprises is still acceptable, the sales pressure of manufacturers is weakened, and on-site trading is limited. Under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be wait-and-see consolidation, and prices may fluctuate narrowly, with weak support for sodium acetate. It is expected that the sodium acetate market will be weakly consolidated, and specific attention will be paid to the upstream and downstream situation in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market has shifted downwards this week. The average price of titanium dioxide on Monday was 17133.33 yuan/ton yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 16466.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.89%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market has been downward. Overall, the international export situation is still good, while the domestic terminal market is weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. Overall, the market acceptance situation is still weak, with cautious procurement and a focus on just in need purchases. As of now, most domestic sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 16000-17500 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15300 yuan/ton; The quoted price for chlorinated titanium dioxide is 19200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has slightly declined. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation, with poor market demand. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the trading of titanium concentrate, and market procurement is cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2240-2260 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate may continue to operate weakly and steadily, and the specific actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has remained stable this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid is 242.5 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for sulfuric acid is weak, and the market situation is light. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has slightly declined, sulfuric acid prices are temporarily stable, raw material support is average, and downstream market demand is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation for titanium dioxide will be mostly wait-and-see, with weak and stable operation as the main focus, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1237.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1252.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%. The current price has increased by 7.97% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has risen and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, and this week’s market has risen. As of May 23rd, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1250-1360 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has skyrocketed, with strong cost support. Mainstream downstream plate factories have maintained a high demand for procurement, and their enthusiasm for receiving goods is high. The overall market transaction is still good, and the market is dominant.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise. On the cost side, the available resources at ports are gradually decreasing, especially due to the tight supply of some high-quality chemical coal. In addition, the market still has expectations for the upcoming peak season, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support. In mid month, most coal mines maintained normal production status, mainly focusing on fulfilling long-term agreements, and the coal supply was relatively stable. With the rise in temperature and the demand for electricity, downstream power plants may gradually replenish their warehouses, providing some support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In recent times, the price of raw material methanol has mainly fluctuated at high levels, and there is an expectation of a decline in the operating rate of downstream sheet factories. Market transactions may weaken. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the average market price of methyl acetate was 4462 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Methanol: Domestic methanol prices have fluctuated upwards this week. On May 22nd, the price of methanol was 2900 yuan/ton, and on May 15th, the price of methanol was 2828 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% from last week. In mid month, the situation abroad was unstable, and the arrival volume of methanol at ports was affected. The inventory in ports and mainland China was relatively low, and downstream procurement was still in demand. The tight supply situation led to a significant increase in the early stage of the methanol market. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and some holders have a bad mentality, offering discounts and lowering prices.

Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid prices have fallen this week. On May 22nd, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, and on May 15th, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41% from last week. The continuous decline in inventory of acetic acid enterprises in the early stage, coupled with factors such as factory equipment failures and load reduction, has pushed up the price of acetic acid. The overall trading atmosphere in the later stage of the market showed a slight decline, with limited follow-up efforts. The downstream purchasing atmosphere was not good, and the regional quotations were loose, resulting in a decrease in the price of acetic acid.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the acetic acid market has fallen, and the overall performance of acetate esters is poor. A cautious sentiment lingers between factories and the industrial chain. The downstream off-season market follows on demand, and the overall procurement pace slows down. It is expected that the methyl acetate market will operate steadily in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of natural rubber in China continued to rise in mid May. As of May 20th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14180 yuan/ton, which is about 13590 yuan/ton compared to May 11th, an increase of 4.34%.

In mid May, the natural rubber market rose, with the Shanghai rubber 09 contract fluctuating from around 14130 yuan/ton to around 14860 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14000-14100 yuan/ton, bulk at around 12600-12700 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11500-11700 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11300-11600 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Currently, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by weather, resulting in slow rubber cutting progress. As of May 20th, the price of Thai glue is 78.2 Thai baht/kg, with an increase in price; Delayed opening of Vietnamese production areas; The Yunnan production area in China has been affected by drought, while Hainan has been affected by rainfall, resulting in poor rubber cutting and relatively tight supply of raw materials, leading to an increase in market prices.

On the demand side: Downstream tire maintenance enterprises are gradually recovering their production scheduling, with a focus on rigid demand procurement. As of May 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 70%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of May 19, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 548000 tons, a decrease of 18400 tons or 3.25% compared to the previous period. The inventory in the bonded zone was 72400 tons, a decrease of 3.69%; General trade inventory was 475600 tons, a decrease of 3.18%. At present, the port is in a state of destocking.

At present, the price monitoring of natural rubber is at a one-year high, a two-year high, and a three-year high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of natural rubber in the past three years is 12650.97 yuan/ton, with a median value of 12835 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 11170.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 14500.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (lower than the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 3010 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (lower than the highest price difference in the past three years) is -320 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Limited raw material output from Thailand and Vietnam on the supply side, limited output from domestic production areas, high raw material prices, and support for natural rubber costs; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side are in the off-season, with limited procurement and insufficient support for rubber raw material demand; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 20, 2024, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has declined. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 69000 to 70000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

According to Business Society, on May 20th, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was 106800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.48% compared to the beginning of this month (108400.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, due to continuous cost pressures and weak demand from downstream electrolyte companies, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market has been weak and declining recently. More information still needs to be focused on the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has remained stable this week, with an average price of 17133.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have remained stable. The overall trading situation in the domestic market is light, with weak downstream demand and strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. Overall, the market acceptance situation is still weak, with cautious procurement and a focus on just in need purchases. As of now, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16000-18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market for titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has remained stable this week. The market situation is average, and the cost pressure in the downstream titanium dioxide market is relatively high. Purchasing is cautious, and there is a lot of wait-and-see on the market. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2250-2300 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is operating weakly, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid on Monday was 247.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 242.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The downstream demand for sulfuric acid is weak, the market situation is light, and downstream enterprises face great cost pressure. The market quotation has been lowered, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region is temporarily stable, sulfuric acid prices have decreased, raw material support is weak, and downstream market demand is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation for titanium dioxide will be mostly wait-and-see, with weak and stable operation as the main focus, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.