DBP prices rose in May due to volatility

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price rose violently in May, and the overall DBP market recovered. As of May 30, the price of DBP was 10350 yuan / ton, up 2.99% from 10050 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the cost of DBP raw materials supported greatly, and the plasticizer market surged.

The price of n-butanol rose violently in May

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of n-butanol rose violently in May, and the market of n-butanol rebounded. On May 30, the price of n-butanol was 10233.33 yuan / ton, up 11.64% from 9166.67 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the transaction of n-butanol rose. The price of n-butanol in Shandong rose in shock, and the cost of DBP rose. The driving force for DBP to rise was large. Recently, the high price of n-butanol has stabilized, and the driving force for DBP to rise has weakened.

In May, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose in May, and has rebounded since the bottom of the phthalic anhydride market on May 16. As of May 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8175 yuan / ton, up 0.46% from 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride raw material o-xylene rose sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DBP raw material rose, and the cost of DBP supported greatly. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, and the driving force for DBP rise remained.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the price of n-butanol rose in May, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and recovered, the cost of plasticizer DBP rose, and the price of DBP rose in May. In the future, the demand for DBP recovers slowly. Recently, the high price of raw materials n-butanol and phthalic anhydride has stabilized, and the high cost of DBP has stabilized. There is still great upward momentum in the downward pressure of DBP. It is expected that the price of DBP will be adjusted at a high level in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 27 was 6640 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from the price of 6704 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 90.08% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic LNG market price fell slightly this week, about 1% in the week. Since the beginning of the week, the domestic liquid price has been reduced frequently. Supported by the cost and the maintenance of liquid factories in some regions, the supply side is good, and the domestic liquid price has not dropped much. Near the weekend, the high-speed traffic restriction in Sichuan has boosted the tentative increase of liquid price in some regions, and the market has both ups and downs. However, the overall market is still weak. The domestic liquid factories are actively shipping, and the offer of cargo holders is lower for good. As of May 27, 6570-6700 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 6680-6790 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 6750-6800 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 6680-6730 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 6780-7000 yuan / ton in Hebei and 6850-7200 yuan / ton in Henan. The terminal price is about 7350-8900 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China was USD 23.10/million British thermal power, and the price was lowered.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from February 28, 2022 to May 22, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas showed mixed gains and losses in the cycle. It fell by 14.08% in the week of February 28. It began to fluctuate in a narrow range since March, and entered the downward trend in May.

Methanol: on May 27, the reference price of methanol was 2620.00, a decrease of 4.55% compared with May 1 (2745.00), and the raw coal price and oil price were strong. The downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the supply and demand game, predicted by fantinglu, methanol analyst of the business club, is dominated by the short-term domestic methanol market or shock consolidation.

Liquid ammonia: on May 27, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong stabilized. Today, the prices of some large manufacturers rebounded slightly, with a range of about 50 yuan. The dealer offered tentative high price. At present, the market price is still at a relatively high level. As the supply in the region increases, the supply performance is abundant. However, the lower reaches are generally resistant to high priced raw materials, and transactions need to be maintained. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 5100-5250 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market will run at a high level in the near future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the LNG analysts of business agency, the current off-season market affects demand, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. However, the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, which brings a little vitality to the domestic LNG market. It is expected that the short-term price will fluctuate in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of May 26, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 12733 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol was 11300 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1433 yuan / ton, or 12.68%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in May, the domestic propylene glycol market showed an overall upward trend. In early May, after the labor day, the propylene glycol market was still in a weak downward channel, and the downstream demand was generally boosted after the labor day. The wait-and-see was strong. On the 10th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 11116 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.62% compared with the beginning of the month. The rise of propylene glycol market mostly comes from the late may stage. With the increase of propylene glycol foreign trade orders and the improvement of export atmosphere, the factory has performed well in going to the warehouse, the confidence of operators has increased, and the offer price of propylene glycol factory has been rising continuously. As of the 26th, the cumulative increase range of domestic propylene glycol is around 1300-1800 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price has risen to around 12600-13000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 12% in the month. At present, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly sorted out and operated, and some factories mainly deliver early orders. The trading atmosphere on the site is mild.

For upstream propylene oxide, as of May 25, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.87% compared with the price on May 20. Recently (5.20-5.25), the propylene oxide market has been in a stalemate. The quotation of enterprises is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased slightly. Recently, the market of raw material propylene has fallen, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has fallen after rising, the cost support has weakened, the supply side is mainly stable, and the inventory has accumulated slightly and slowly. However, the multi inventory pressure of manufacturers is controllable, which supports the market mentality. The downstream demand is cold, the procurement enthusiasm is weakened, and the market is in a stalemate. On the 25th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10800-10900 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the propylene glycol on-site quotation is still stable, medium and strong as a whole. Some propylene glycol factories mainly deliver foreign trade orders, the inventory pressure is still small, and the domestic demand continues to be strong. The propylene glycol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly strong, mainly sorting and operation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes of supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the hydrogen peroxide market rose first and then fell in May. The roller coaster market was staged. The overall oscillation rose, with an increase of more than 6%. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 906 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 966 yuan / ton, up 6.62%.

According to the weekly fluctuation chart from February 28 to May 22, 2022, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply at the end of February, with a weekly increase of nearly 20%; Since March, hydrogen peroxide has been mixed, with a decline of more than 10% in the first week; After the crash, the market rebounded. Hydrogen peroxide still oscillated upward in April. After May Day, the hydrogen peroxide market ushered in a sharp rise, with a maximum weekly rise of more than 17%. After the sharp rise, it ushered in a diving market, dominated by overall oscillatory rise.

Long short game hydrogen peroxide market staged a roller coaster

At the beginning of this month, after May Day, the demand of hydrogen peroxide terminal industry became better, the market recovered, and the price continued to rise. The average market price exceeded 1000 yuan / ton, and the price rose by more than 5%. The hydrogen peroxide price of the manufacturer increased by 30-50 yuan / ton, and the market transaction was good. Hydrogen peroxide market rose one after another.

In the second week, the terminal was supported by rigid demand, some manufacturers stopped for maintenance, the supply was tight, the market quotation was chaotic, and the price once ushered in a sharp rise. On May 10, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was close to 1200 yuan / ton, up 9.12% in a single day.

In the middle of the year, due to the suppression of terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide market began to callback after rising. This week, the hydrogen peroxide market gradually fell, and the price fell below 1200 yuan / ton to 1100 yuan / ton, down more than 4%.

At the end of the month, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide fell and the market continued to decline. As of May 25, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market fell to 1023 yuan / ton, a decrease of more than 17%, and the price fell to the first line of 1000 yuan / ton.

Business community hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: the rigid demand of the terminal industry is low, and the hydrogen peroxide market will be weak and downward in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 24, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 870 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 763 yuan / ton), the price increased by 107 yuan / ton, or 13.97%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in May, the domestic phosphorus ore market experienced several price adjustments, and the market focus continued to focus upward. The main reason for supporting the upward trend of phosphorus ore market is that at present, the supply of domestic phosphorus ore continues to be tight. Many large factories mainly use medium and high-end phosphorus ore for their own use, and some mining enterprises mainly send orders from core and old customers. There are basically no surplus goods for export. Most enterprises suspend quotation, there are few goods in circulation on site, and the tight supply situation has not been alleviated. Therefore, the market price has been rising repeatedly. As of May 24, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 880-930 yuan / ton, which needs to be discussed separately. At present, the average grade of phosphate rock in China is low. With years of mining, the average grade in China will decline in 2022, and the mining is limited. In addition, the price difference of phosphate rock at home and abroad is large, so some enterprises have a certain mentality of reluctant to sell. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, by March 2022, the domestic phosphate rock output had accumulated 2391.2 tons.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in May, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price operated upward. At present, the operating load of yellow phosphorus enterprises is not high, and there is still no significant increase in on-site operation near the wet season. Manufacturers often send early orders, the spot is tight, and the transaction price in the overall market is further close to the high-end. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, and most of them digest the early inventory. The turnover of new yellow phosphorus orders is relatively small, and the manufacturers mainly support the price, mostly stabilize, and some enterprises still have the intention to rise. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 39500 yuan / ton., According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 39833.33 yuan / ton on May 23, an increase of 9.13% compared with May 1 (36500 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the tense supply situation in the domestic phosphorus ore market still needs time to be alleviated. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be high and strong, mainly sorting and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On May 22, the average price in Shandong market was 4982.75 yuan / ton, down 3.16% from 5145.25 yuan / ton on May 16.

On May 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 387.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.17% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 479.38% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery fell, the market trading was general, the market supply increased, the refinery price decreased, the shipment was positive, the downstream carbon enterprises had a strong wait-and-see mood, and mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the market focus has gradually got rid of the fear of demand, and the focus has gradually returned to the expectation of supply tightening. The short-term market is still affected by the expected impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are strongly supported. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned that the market would see more than 7 million barrels of Russian oil and other liquid oil export losses per day. As the ability of many oil producing countries in the world to increase production rapidly is limited, the oil price may remain high in the foreseeable future, and the crude oil market price is strongly supported. Especially at present, the epidemic still plays a role, and the future demand may become the biggest constraint on the oil price. Of course, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s oil supply is affected by intensive Western sanctions. The current situation is more complex. The impact of oil prices from the supply side will play a role in the long term to further offset the negative impact of the demand side.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon has been lowered; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose. As of May 22, the price was 20520.00 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood and purchase more on demand.

Petroleum coke analysts of business agency believe that imported coke is concentrated in Hong Kong this week, the supply of petroleum coke market increases, refineries actively reduce prices and ship goods, and downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood and focus on demand. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.

From May 13 to May 20, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased as a whole, from 6901 yuan / ton last weekend to 7157 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.71%.

On May 19, the international crude oil futures rebounded and rose significantly. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $109.89/barrel, up US $2.85 or 2.66%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $112.04/barrel, up US $2.93 or 2.70%. Oil prices rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, mainly due to the fall of the US dollar exchange rate, which raised the valuation of commodities denominated in US dollars. In addition, the epidemic situation in Asia improved and restrictions relaxed, boosting demand expectations.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

May 5, 8850.,+150

May 7, 8950.,+100

May 13, 9100.,+150

May 17, 9200.,+100

May 19, 9300.,+100

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On May 19, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton and implemented 9300 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8800 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9350 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8953 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole this week, and the external price of pure benzene rose, which provided good support for the fundamentals of the industrial chain. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the production price of pure benzene, once again boosted market confidence, and local refining enterprises rose one after another. Over the weekend, market news said that an accident occurred in a factory in South Korea, resulting in the shutdown of about 380000 tons of pure benzene production capacity, and the market speculation was positive. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased significantly, and the overall support of the market was strong. However, Shandong was dragged down by poor downstream demand. Although the price actively followed up this week, there was still a certain price difference with East China, and the actual transaction was weak. At present, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8750-9350 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price in East China has risen to about 9200-9300 yuan / ton.

The crude benzene market is the main player in the bidding price this week. In terms of supply, at present, the operation of coking enterprises is relatively normal. Although the profit of coke enterprises has declined after three rounds of coke lifting and lowering, the raw coking coal has declined, the coke enterprises as a whole are OK, the operation rate has changed little recently, and the supply of crude benzene is relatively stable. In terms of downstream demand, hydrobenzene enterprises have been boosted by profits recently, with an overall start-up of more than 70%, and the demand for crude benzene is well supported. In terms of the future market, at present, the fundamentals are good, the support is strong, and the downstream demand is OK, which boosts the overall trend of the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable, medium and strong trend in the near future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 16, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated stably and the supply and demand were balanced. Compared with the same period last week, the price had no significant change. The overall market was stable, the trend was stable and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the supply side of the market is normal and the purchase is just needed.

The market price of white carbon black has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat,

Upstream hydrochloric acid: as of May 13, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid was temporarily stable, and the average price was 300 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32.35% year-on-year. On May 12, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Ranking of chemical index: on May 15, the chemical index was 1194 points, the same as yesterday, down 14.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 99.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 18, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9933 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 15 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 10000 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.67%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of the week, the high-end price on the floor was generally traded. Some n-butanol factories in Shandong sold goods at a profit. The ex factory price of n-butanol was slightly reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was about 9800-10000 yuan / ton. Then, in the middle of the week, the low-end price on the floor was well traded, and the n-butanol market rebounded slightly. On the 18th, the n-butanol market in Shandong increased steadily and slightly, with an increase range of around 100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9900-10000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of n-butanol in South China was still above 10000 yuan, with a reference of around 10300-10400 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is mild, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is good.

In terms of upstream propylene, since May, the domestic propylene market in Shandong has been rising as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of propylene was 8560.60 yuan / ton on May 17, up 1.74% compared with May 1 (8414.60).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol is mostly purchased on demand, and the atmosphere of supply and demand is normal. The n-butanol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6687 yuan / ton on May 9, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6687 yuan / ton on May 16. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week. The terminal demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere on the site is cold. This week, the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises was about 50%, and some enterprises stopped production for maintenance. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the cost support was acceptable. As of May 16, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 6250 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week, and the shipment was stable. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the downstream just needs to purchase. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, fluctuated slightly in the range, and mainly operated inward and downward in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business society believes that the overall market of chlorinated paraffin is stable and the cost side support is weakened. The downstream demand is weak, the follow-up is insufficient, and the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin is reduced. In the case of weak supply and demand, the chlorinated paraffin market is expected to be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.