The asphalt market in Shandong region rose within the week. Among them, the price of Shandong Jingbo has increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Sinopec refinery Shandong Qilu has increased by 30 yuan/ton. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the ex factory price in Shandong was 3625 yuan/ton on March 21, and as of the 27th, the ex factory price in Shandong was 3673 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32%.

Supported by the rise in international oil prices, the enthusiasm for some arbitrage purchases has increased, and the demand for a small number of terminals and modified storage has been boosted. Brand asphalt has continued to rise, with a reference range of 3520-3700 yuan/ton in the market.
In terms of supply, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical has switched to producing residual oil, while Shengxing Petrochemical has resumed producing asphalt, resulting in a decline in overall supply and easing of social inventory pressure. In terms of demand, the participation of downstream intermediaries has increased, and there is a strong enthusiasm for receiving goods from prospective and present merchants. As the end of the month approaches, refineries are executing contract shipments, and terminal projects are starting one after another, with good delivery conditions.
Next week, some enterprises such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shengxing Petrochemical plan to shut down production, and the supply side may be slightly reduced. Recently, with a wave of cold air coming and more rainfall in the south, the demand side still needs to be boosted. However, as the weather warms up in April, the demand in the northern region will increase significantly. From a business perspective, short-term spot stability will be the main focus, and the medium – to long-term market will improve.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated within a certain range this week, with a slight overall downward adjustment. From March 17 to March 24, 2025, the mixed xylene price dropped from 6360 yuan/ton to 6330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. This week, there were slight differences in the performance of the domestic mixed xylene market across different regions. Due to poor downstream demand, prices in the Shandong region fell overall during the week, and local refineries continuously lowered their factory quotes and actively shipped. Affected by tight supply within the region, market prices in East and South China have remained stable with slight increases, but actual transactions in the market are limited and demand performance is weak.

Cost aspect: Crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards during this cycle. As of the 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.28 per barrel, an increase of $1.73 per barrel compared to the same period last week. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.61 per barrel, up $1.73 per barrel from the same period last week.

Supply side: Sinopec xylene quotation summary. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of March 24th, East China Company quoted 6300 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6000-6100 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6500-6550 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6300 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On March 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from March 17th. As of March 21, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $817-819/ton FOB Korea and $842-844/ton CFR China, up $5/ton from March 14.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to rise slightly near the weekend, providing some support for the market. Overall, the supply of xylene in East and South China remains tight, which still supports market sentiment. The downstream demand in Shandong region has been weak recently, which has limited support for the market. Overall, the toluene market is expected to continue its trend this week next Tuesday, with Shandong showing a moderate to weak trend and East and South China showing a strong trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has continued to decline recently, and the market atmosphere is quiet. The spot price of aniline in East China is 8300-8400 yuan/ton, and the acceptance price is 8400-8600 yuan/ton. It is reported that the shipment of raw material pure benzene is not smooth, port inventory is high, supply is sufficient, and prices continue to fall. Under the drag of costs, the price center of the aniline market has shifted downwards, accompanied by a decline in prices. Downstream cautious entry into the market has led to a lack of market transactions and an increase in inventory. In the short term, there is still a possibility of a decline in pure benzene, and it is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1873 yuan/ton, which is 0.11% higher than the reference average price of 1871 yuan/ton on March 10th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have fluctuated. As of March 14th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1800-1825 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1800-1840 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1820 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1820 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1890 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, urea production started at a high level this week, and the urea market has sufficient supply. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are made on demand, with stable industrial and agricultural demand and decent new order volume.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in recent days, domestic urea prices have been fluctuating, with minor fluctuations being the main trend. At present, there is a large inventory in the market, and there is support from the demand side. It is expected that the short-term domestic urea market will mainly experience price fluctuations and consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 7th to 14th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2669 yuan/ton to 2656 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%. Domestic methanol market volatility consolidation. At the beginning of the week, some traders restocked and production enterprises limited their shipments, driving the rise of the mainland methanol market. However, downstream buyers remained cautious after the rise, and their willingness to purchase was average, which suppressed the market. As a result, the market negotiation atmosphere weakened and prices were running weakly.

As of the close on March 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2532 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2553 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2519 yuan/ton. It closed at 2539 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 22 yuan or 0.86% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 739859 lots, the position is 873077 lots, and the daily increase position is -7501 lots.

In terms of cost, with the warming weather in most parts of the country and the end of the heating season in the north, the demand for electricity from residents continues to weaken. Coupled with the increase in clean energy output such as hydropower, thermal power units will gradually enter maintenance mode, and daily power consumption of power plants is still expected to decline. In addition, there is still pressure on coal storage in upstream and downstream ports, and downward pressure on coal prices. The large-scale procurement of power by terminals is still insufficient, and the main focus in the future may still be on demand driven transportation. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi is expected to complete maintenance, and the demand for acetic acid will increase; Downstream formaldehyde: The start-up of the Xinquan plant in Baoji has led to an increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Yunnan pyrolysis plant storage and operation plan, increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: The shutdown of Shandong Lushanfa has affected production, Reduced MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: The maintenance of Jinling Dongying unit has reduced the demand for chloride. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 13th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 369.50-370.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 107.00-108.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 354.50-355.50 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

In the future forecast, domestic construction will remain at a relatively high level, downstream MTO units will restart, and traditional demand will remain relatively stable, with good performance in the real world. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1871 yuan/ton, which is 1.11% lower than the reference average price of 1892 yuan/ton on March 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In early March, the domestic urea market prices fell. As of March 10th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1800-1830 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1850 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1800-1820 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1860 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has sufficient supply and cautious market demand. On the supply side, urea production started at a high level this week, with stable market supply and sufficient inventory levels. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are made on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is flat, with limited follow-up on new orders.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea price has started to slightly rebound after a continuous decline in recent days. At present, it is the peak season for spring plowing, and the demand for urea in the market is still high. But overall inventory remains high. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will remain stable and rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 936 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 971 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 24.33%. On March 6th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 844 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.14% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 930-1050 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). The overall upward trend of caustic soda prices this week is mainly due to manufacturers stopping for maintenance, which has eased the pressure on caustic soda inventory. The downstream price of alumina is basically maintained at 3200-3450 yuan/ton, and the demand for caustic soda is still acceptable.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has risen and the operating market has improved due to enterprise maintenance and inventory pressure. Downstream demand is still acceptable, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain its upward trend in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market rose in February and then fell back, with an overall slight decrease in prices. As of February 28th, the average bid price for maleic anhydride was 6560.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 0.91% from 6620.00 yuan/ton on February 1st.

Supply side: In early February, maleic anhydride continued its upward trend in the second half of January, with no pressure on maleic anhydride inventory. Main factories continued to rise, and distributors followed suit; In mid to late February, due to limited downstream production, the market price of maleic anhydride continued to decline. At present, the market supply is normal, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have seen an increase in production, mainly through on-demand procurement. As of February 28th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6300 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Upstream: In February, the price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, with a slight overall decrease in price. There is still pressure on local refining and shipping in Shandong region, and the focus continues to decline, releasing inventory pressure. In the East China region, import arbitrage has had a certain impact on the East China market, leading to a decline in market prices.

In February, the international crude oil market fluctuated downwards, and the price of n-butane fluctuated upwards. As of February 28th, the price in Shandong was around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, unsaturated resin companies have been operating slowly, and there is a strong demand for purchasing unsaturated resins downstream, which has limited support for unsaturated resins. Currently, the procurement of maleic anhydride for unsaturated resins is limited.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that recently, the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride has completed its replenishment, and the follow-up of new orders has slowed down. Unsaturated resins mainly maintain the essential demand for maleic anhydride, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories producing maleic anhydride maintain stable prices, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

The focus of the domestic acetone market in February is on. The national acetone market has been trading at an average price of 6097 yuan/ton since February 1st, rising to 6492 yuan/ton on February 28th, an increase of 6.48%. From the perspective of the acetone market in East China alone, the price of 5950 yuan/ton quoted on February 1st has risen to 6520 yuan/ton quoted on February 28th, an increase of 9.85%.

Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic acetone market saw a broad upward trend in early February. On the one hand, there have been reports of shutdowns and maintenance of domestic phenol ketone plants, including the shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II and Ningbo Taihua plants due to malfunctions, resulting in a low operating rate of 70% for domestic phenol ketone plants. This operating rate is at a low level throughout the year, leading to a decrease in supply pressure expectations; On the other hand, imported goods are gradually being replenished, but there is not much pressure on port inventory. Downstream terminal factories have more inquiries after the holiday, and many have insufficient pre holiday inventory. After the holiday, inventory is limited and actively replenished. In the situation of low supply pressure, traders have little intention of lowering prices, continuously pushing up the market. The market has shown a significant upward trend in mid to early February.

In the second half of the month, with downstream restocking for a period of time, the purchasing pace gradually slowed down, the trading atmosphere cooled down, and the actual trading volume was relatively low. Traders actively shipped goods for profit, and there were some intentions to sell at a low price. The market center of gravity slightly declined, and in the latter half of the year, the market fluctuated in a narrow range of ups and downs.

Domestic enterprise installation situation in February: Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I phenol ketone installation will be shut down on November 1st, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The Guangxi Huayi phenol ketone plant will shut down on February 4, 2025, and is expected to undergo a maintenance period of 2 months; The phenol ketone unit of Ningbo Taihua will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 22nd; The second phase phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 20th; The Shanghai Xisafen ketone plant was shut down on February 25th and is expected to resume in early March. Details are being followed up.

It is expected that the average price of acetone in the domestic market will slightly increase in March. On the supply side, the operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises has increased in March, and the supply of domestic trade goods has increased compared to February; In terms of imports, the contracted goods from Saudi Arabia and Thailand have arrived normally, while the Taiwan facility has undergone more maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall import replenishment. From the demand side, downstream MMA, MIBK, and bisphenol A plants have seen some improvement, while there has been little change in the demand for acetone. The overall demand for acetone remains stable with a slight increase, and it is expected to rise slightly in March.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average selling price of PET is 6270 yuan/ton. This month’s price has shown a fluctuating trend of first rising and then falling, and entered the second half of the month with a downward trend.

Cost wise: In mid February, WTI crude oil prices rose to $72.32 per barrel, briefly supporting the cost side, but later weakened the cost support for polyester bottle flakes due to global economic concerns and OPEC+production expectations falling. The price expectations for the main raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are weak. PTA processing fees are at a low level (300-350 yuan/ton), and the expectation of high and low crude oil prices weakens cost support; The improvement of the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol is limited, and the price center has shifted downwards, further dragging down the cost of bottle chips.

On the supply side, the polyester bottle chip industry is still at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with a high capacity base of existing equipment, leading to sustained pressure of oversupply. The inventory level this month is at a high level compared to the same period, coupled with the expected release of new production capacity (planned to add 2.15 million tons in 2025), intensifying market concerns about oversupply. Although the growth rate of new production capacity has slowed down, the overall pattern of supply exceeding demand in the market has not changed, which has suppressed the upward space of prices.

In terms of demand: Some companies have completed procurement after the holiday, but actual transactions have been slow. The lack of market chasing sentiment has led to a wait-and-see attitude among traders and downstream enterprises, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. However, the current industry has low processing fees, factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, and there is also a reduction in supply.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the continued weakness of polyester bottle chip prices this month is mainly due to loose supply and demand, as well as negative costs. In the short term, the PET market may have limited volatility, and overall it presents a narrow adjustment pattern. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.