1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium on October 1st was 3083 yuan/ton. On October 30th, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3116 yuan/ton, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.08% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride on October 1st was 3875 yuan/ton, and on October 30th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride was 3900 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.65% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate has risen steadily this month. In the first half of October, the market price of ammonium phosphate was sorted and operated. The price of raw sulfur continues to decline, with weak cost support. However, the autumn market demand is still there, and with the support of pending orders, the market continues to be strong. There are fewer new orders in the monoammonium market, resulting in an increase in equipment maintenance for enterprises and a decrease in market supply. The supply of ammonium phosphate in some areas is tight, and there is a shortage of wheat fertilizer in autumn, resulting in concentrated demand in the Northeast market. In the second half of October, the market for ammonium phosphate strengthened. The price of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur has increased, resulting in favorable cost support. Negotiations are mainly focused on the monoammonium market, and the market in the Northeast region follows up as needed. The factory still has support to be deployed. The demand for diammonium has shown good performance, with an increase in on-site inquiries and a positive trading atmosphere. As of October 30th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 3150 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong region is around 3850-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

Market of raw material phosphate rock. Continuing the upward trend of “Gold Nine”, the domestic phosphorus ore market “Silver Ten” continues to rise and operate. After the end of the October National Day holiday, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market continued to approach a high level. On October 26th, the market price of 30 grade phosphorus ore once again exceeded the thousand yuan mark. On October 30th, the reference price of phosphorus ore was around 1024 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.57% compared to early October. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the phosphate rock field has narrowed, and the overall market performance is still good.

The raw material sulfur market, domestic sulfur prices fell first and then rose this month. In the first half of October, sulfur prices were mainly weak and downward. In the second half of October, the sulfur market in East China was relatively strong. Entering the market for purchasing is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. Some sulfur refineries have experienced smooth shipments, reduced inventory from manufacturers, and a slight increase in sulfur quotations. As of October 30th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 920-950 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 900-1000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the recent trend of ammonium phosphate market is dominant. At present, with high cost support and a large backlog of enterprises, most manufacturers have suspended orders. Some enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply and a need for restocking downstream. Under the concentration of positive factors, it is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will steadily rise.

In October 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market stabilized first and then fell, with prices slightly declining. The average market price in East China was 82750 yuan/ton on the 1st and 82500 yuan/ton on the 27th, a decrease of 0.3%.

On October 26, the antimony commodity index was 114.85, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 5.44% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 144.47% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. In March, the price fell broadly, while in April and May, the trend remained stable. After June, the price continued to decline for seven consecutive weeks, and at the end of July, it rose for eight consecutive weeks. In October, it fell narrowly.

In terms of the industrial chain, the trend of the antimony oxide market in October remained basically stable, with limited price fluctuations during the month. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, some enterprises replenished their inventory as needed. The latest customs data shows that the export of antimony oxide in September increased by nearly 10% compared to August, and the sales situation in overseas markets is still good, which just needs support for the antimony ingot market.

In October, the antimony ingot market slightly decreased, only by 250 yuan/ton, and the market remained stable for the month. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall changes are also limited, still manifested as weak supply and demand. The tight supply situation at the antimony mining end has not significantly improved. Due to the disturbance of the tight supply factors at the mining end, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China is still tight, and most manufacturers have a reluctance to sell, and the inventory in the factory is generally low. In terms of demand, antimony oxide enterprises still maintain a demand based replenishment and procurement, and currently the overall market mentality is weak. Overall, the news in the antimony ingot market is currently slightly stable, with the overall market leaning towards the off-season trend. It is expected to maintain a consolidation operation in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices fluctuated and fell in October, with a slight increase at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 67496.67 yuan/ton, but at the end of the month, the copper price fell to 66900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 4.58%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, the spot price of copper in October is generally higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price in two months. Copper in October is generally bearish.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory continued to rise significantly in October, reaching a new high of 190000 tons in over two years, with a slight decline in inventory at the end of the month.

Macroscopically, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the strong performance of the US economy and the continued tension in the labor market may require further tightening of borrowing conditions to control inflation. Rising yields will help further tighten financial conditions, which may “to some extent” reduce the need for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Investors are further inclined to bet that the Federal Reserve has completed this round of interest rate hikes. However, under the influence of strong economic data and the escalating Israeli-Palestinian conflict, US bond yields have continued to rise, with the 10-year US bond yield breaking through 5% at the end of the month for the first time since 2007.

High supply growth

This year, the supply of copper concentrate is sufficient, with high growth rates in Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo. From January to August this year, the supply of copper ore in Peru increased by 17.83%, while the supply of copper ore in Chile decreased slightly by 2.2%. From January to July, the supply of copper ore in the Democratic Republic of Congo increased by 10.56%. The expected growth rate of copper concentrate supply in the fourth quarter is 3.8%. The domestic supply of refined copper has grown rapidly and has reached a historic high. In September, the production of refined copper reached 1.01 million tons, continuing to reach a new high, an increase of 11.3% compared to last year. The import volume of refined copper has also rebounded to 340000 tons, and countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Serbia have increased their imports of copper.

Downstream aspect

Real estate: Since August, the government has introduced a series of policies to promote real estate consumption. However, the actual effect is average. In September, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 19.76% year-on-year, and the transaction area of 100 cities’ land continued to weaken.

Air conditioning: According to the latest monthly report on the production and sales of household air conditioners, 9.693 million units were produced in September 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%; Sales of 9.989 million units decreased by 5.3% year-on-year. Among them, 5.681 million units were shipped domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%; Export 4.308 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. In September, the air conditioning production of key enterprises decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and domestic sales continued to weaken, but exports remained positive.

Automobiles: According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.85 million and 2.858 million units respectively in September 2023, with year-on-year growth of 6.6% and 9.5%, respectively. Both production and sales reached historical highs during the same period; From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 21.075 million and 21.069 million, with year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in September reached 879000 and 904000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%.

Power grid investment: From January to August, the completed investment in power grid projects was 270.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In August, the completed investment in power grid projects was 23.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.79%.

According to the comparison chart of annual copper prices, in the past five years, copper prices have risen and fallen by half in November.

Based on the above situation, the macro environment of the market is relatively pessimistic, and the geopolitical crisis poses pressure on global stock markets and non-ferrous metals. Fundamentally speaking, the domestic supply is high in the fourth quarter, and the expectation of overseas imports is also strong. Although the fourth quarter is the peak season for consumption, the overall situation is “not prosperous during the peak season”. It is expected that copper prices will still struggle to improve in November, with low volatility being the main trend.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 23, the DBP price was 9625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.58% from the DBP price of 10087.50 yuan/ton on October 15. The raw material n-butanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased, cost support has decreased, downstream demand is weak, and plasticizer DBP enterprises have started stable operations. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and decreased.

The price of n-butanol has dropped significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.57% compared to the price of n-butanol on October 15, which was 8833.33 yuan/ton. This week, the factory price of n-butanol has significantly decreased, and n-butanol manufacturers have accumulated inventory. Propylene prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of n-butanol has decreased. Downstream demand for n-butanol is cautious in procurement, and the pressure on the price of n-butanol has increased.

The raw material phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of October 23, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuating decrease of 2.38% compared to the price of 8387.50 yuan/ton on October 15. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downstream procurement situation is average. The phthalic anhydride manufacturers have accumulated inventory, but the price of Naifa phthalic anhydride has weakened, the price of ortho benzene has decreased, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased. The cost support for plasticizers has weakened.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of n-butanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of DBP raw materials has decreased, and the downward pressure on DBP has increased; Insufficient silver fineness and weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, as costs decrease and demand weakens, the downward pressure on plasticizer DBP increases, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of October 20th, the spot nickel quotation was 152850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 21.29%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3%, with recent weak declines in nickel prices.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that, considering the risks and the process of interest rate increase so far, the Federal Reserve is realizing the dual mission of maximizing employment and price stability. After Powell’s voice, the yield of US treasury bond bonds fell in shock, and US stocks fell in response, adding to the tension in the Middle East, the market risk sentiment rose.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and there is sufficient supply of pure nickel domestically. The overall supply of refined nickel is expected to be under increasing excess pressure. The Philippine mining price has loosened, and the sea freight has fallen, putting upward pressure on nickel iron prices. At present, global nickel inventory is on the rise, new delivery sources are flowing into the market, some Russian nickel resources are being sold, and futures warehouse orders continue to rise.

In terms of demand: expectations for the downstream peak season have basically fallen through, steel mills have reduced production, upstream and downstream pressures are forcing downward, nickel iron costs are hanging upside down, and there may be a risk of production reduction. In terms of new energy, there is an oversupply of nickel sulfate, resulting in a decrease in demand for pure nickel. The disturbance of nickel mining events has led to a decrease in MHP production, which has supported the price of nickel sulfate.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, the macro level is mixed, with many domestic economic data improving, but the situation in the Middle East has escalated overseas. Coupled with speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials, the market has a high level of risk aversion. Fundamentally, the pure nickel spot market is still weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and LME destocking slowing down. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will be weak.

Overview of the price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 16th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 23933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.62% compared to the beginning of the month. This week, the price of magnesium ingots has been weakened and lowered. The market is relatively flat after the holiday, and there is less centralized inventory in the downstream. Additionally, there has been a slight increase in factory inventory after the holiday, and some manufacturers are interested in offering profits for shipment.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, there has been a slight increase in factory inventory after the holiday. Some factories are willing to sell at a lower price, while most factories do not have significant pressure to sell. The space for selling at a lower price is limited, and the willingness to sell at a lower price is not strong. In terms of demand, downstream orders are mostly based on inquiries, with fewer actual transactions.

In terms of raw materials

Due to the lack of market confidence caused by the decline in futures trading, the price of ferrosilicon has dropped. This week, the price of ferrosilicon in the Ningxia region was around 6800-7000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6914 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.59%. In the absence of favorable market support, the spot market for ferrosilicon may operate in a weak position.

This week, the national orchid charcoal market temporarily stabilized after rising. On October 11th, downstream mainstream calcium carbide enterprises raised the purchase price of orchid charcoal by 79.1-80 yuan/ton, and orchid charcoal enterprises gradually raised prices ranging from 30-80 yuan/ton, with the first round of price increases landing. The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market is 1330-1550 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, downstream demand has been sluggish this week, and the cost support for raw material ferrosilicon has weakened, leading to a slight decline in the magnesium ingot market. The willingness of factories to offer profits for shipment has increased compared to before, but the production of magnesium ingots in the main production area remains low. Most factories have little pressure on shipment, and it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will continue to decline with limited space, showing a weak steady state trend in the short term.

From October 6 to October 13, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China remained stable, with prices at 82750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 82750 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, which remained unchanged.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized, reaching $11750/ton as of October 13th, with a decrease of $300/ton during the cycle. The market atmosphere is somewhat wait-and-see, and the impact on market sentiment is limited.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation, with little change in supply and demand. It still shows weak supply and demand, tight supply at the mining end, low inventory in the factory, and a strong reluctance of antimony ingot manufacturers to sell. In terms of demand, downstream procurement remains in demand, and the market mentality is temporarily stable. Overall, the recent news in the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain consolidation in the short term in the future.

This week, the antimony oxide market has temporarily remained stable, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Overseas sales performance remains poor, and market expectations remain weak. Antimony oxide enterprises maintain a demand for antimony ingots.

On October 15th, the non-ferrous index stood at 1114 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 83.53% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 7th to 13th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 7000 yuan/ton to 6937 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.89%, a month on month increase of 0.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.43%. Production enterprises mainly complete preliminary orders, with relatively stable inventory and stable price consolidation.

On the cost side, some corn production areas are listed, and the overall high yield expectation of autumn grain is relatively sufficient. Trade entities continue to be bearish on the future market, and the overall price of domestic corn market is high and low, while the price of domestic corn market continues to be weak and downward. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, the majority of production enterprises in various regions park their facilities, and the operating rate of normally operating enterprises remains at 30-40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang is feeding out products, and Shuntong is about to release products. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in October. Other chemical products require procurement. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish and the supply and demand are weak. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may be weak in the short term.

In September, domestic polycrystalline silicon surged and entered a consolidation pattern, stabilizing the market at a high level. The main reason is that downstream markets generally resist high prices and continue to push up weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose only 0.82% in September. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar energy level has been maintained at 80-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have maintained a reasonable level of operation. At the beginning of the month, the market was still affected by power restrictions, and the operating rate of devices remained low. Multiple devices were shut down, causing silicon material prices to inertia rise. From mid to late month, devices gradually recovered. The slow release of newly added production capacity has led to an increase in supply, gradually improving the supply and demand pattern, and significantly easing supply pressure. This is also the main reason why the price of silicon materials has not continued to rise. The accumulation of downstream silicon wafers directly suppresses the demand for upstream raw material procurement. At present, the silicon material market is slowly showing signs of oversupply, but the supply of high-quality silicon materials is still tight, and mid to low end materials may experience a turning point in the market next month.

On the demand side, although the market demand was relatively mild in September, the overall inventory of silicon wafers continued to rise, and the market entered a stage of accumulation. Some second tier silicon wafer manufacturers showed obvious willingness to reduce production, but the overall operating rate remained high. However, the possibility of production reduction in the later stage is not ruled out, which will further affect the sales of silicon materials. From the demand for downstream battery cells, it can be seen that downstream battery cells continue to decline, and some models of silicon wafers have also become loose. According to monitoring, G12 silicon wafers have dropped from 4.35 yuan at the beginning of the month to 4.2 yuan currently. The overall demand pressure is showing an increasing trend. From the perspective of terminal components, the demand for overseas projects is mainly reduced, which will become a demand constraint. However, the demand for centralized installation in China is still on the rise, which ensures that there will not be too much fluctuation in demand. Overall, it is mainly balanced.

Future forecast: The supply of silicon materials in the market will remain reasonable and stable in the near future, but there is also a risk of inventory accumulation in the future as the release of new production capacity increases. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of a retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black price has increased this month. On September 28th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11266 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.62% compared to the initial price of 10566 yuan/ton

Cost side: After the price of coal tar market rose this month, it maintained stable operation. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar market is 4947 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, there was strong downstream demand, and the coal tar market continued to rise, with carbon black prices rising due to cost. In the middle of the month, the bearish atmosphere in the coal tar market intensified, and prices in the main production areas followed suit. However, the supply of coal tar on site is relatively tight, and with the support of downstream demand, the downward trend of coal tar is relatively small. By the end of the month, the operating rates of deep processing and carbon black enterprises have rapidly increased, driving up the price of coal tar. It is expected that the coal tar market will operate in a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is currently low.

In terms of terminals, this month, with the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” initiative, downstream enterprises have a higher level of production, and tire shipments are smoother than in the early stage. Terminal enterprises have low carbon black inventory, and on-site inquiries are more positive. The upcoming Double Festival holiday is approaching, and the downstream tire and rubber product industry has a strong stocking sentiment. The enthusiasm for raw material carbon black inquiries is still good.

In terms of import and export, according to customs data, China imported 26800 tons of carbon black in August 2023, an increase of 351.84% year-on-year and 28.85% month on month; From January to August 2023, China’s cumulative import of carbon black reached 174000 tons, an increase of 187.96% compared to the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 114000 tons in imports. In August 2023, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 71300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.18% and a month on month increase of 9.96%. From January to August 2023, China’s cumulative export of carbon black reached 467000 tons, a decrease of 21.04% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 124000 tons.

Overall, the current raw material coal tar market is operating in a volatile manner, with a relatively small downward trend, providing significant cost support for carbon black prices. The terminal tire market is actively buying carbon black, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will maintain a high level of operation, with a strong consolidation operation. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.