1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC Spot market rose in July. On July 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5505 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average price was 5796.67 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 5.3% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

PVC Spot market prices rose in July. The overall market trading situation has improved, and downstream market order demand is improving. Today, the futures price broke through the high again, the confidence of the Spot market soared, and the price also rose with the high profile of futures prices. There are many downstream inquiries, but the actual transaction is still relatively cautious, mainly on demand.

On July 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.09 per barrel, an increase of $1.31 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.79 per barrel, an increase of $1.23 or 1.5%. The WTI has broken below $80 for the first time in three months, mainly due to supply tightening caused by OPEC+production cuts in oil producing countries, coupled with bullish expectations of increased Chinese demand.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region first fell and then increased in July. The overall price increased. On June 1st, the average price of calcium carbide was 2883.33 yuan/ton, while on July 28th, the average price was 2933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73%. At present, the price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will temporarily stabilize and consolidate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of PVC Spot market rose sharply this month, and the price of upstream calcium carbide rose. The support is acceptable. In addition, the current market demand side performance is improving, so the confidence of the two cities is good. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC Spot market is on the strong side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic asphalt market surged in July. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province increased from 3767 yuan/ton to 3854 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30%. The maximum amplitude for the month was 2.71%, and the price decreased by 9.57% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, international crude oil was operating strongly, with some support for asphalt costs. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. Hebei Kaiyi Petrochemical planned to produce finished products and Jincheng Petrochemical planned to resume production, resulting in regional demand differentiation. The demand in the northern region was supported, while there was more rain and gas in the eastern China region along the Yangtze River. The actual demand was average.

In the first half of the month, boosted by favorable factors such as rising crude oil prices, relatively low supply, and tight available resources, the domestic asphalt market prices slightly increased.

In the latter half of the month, Typhoon “Taili” hit, causing some precipitation to increase and affecting downstream demand. In the short term, the market may show a strong demand in the south and weak demand in the north, and the asphalt market situation will be sorted and operated.

On the cost side, the crude oil market surged in July, and WTI crude oil reached its highest point in the past three months. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.74 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.0%. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. As of July 26th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp interest rate hike, coupled with a lower than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, resulting in profit taking in crude oil futures and pressure on prices. The high cost of international crude oil market is favorable for the domestic asphalt market.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, the asphalt market demand is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. In some northern regions, future rainfall weather may increase, affecting the construction process of downstream terminals. However, the overall demand in the south has improved, and the phased demand may show a strong situation in the south and weak situation in the north. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil has a wide range of fluctuations, with certain cost support, relatively abundant market supply, and strong demand from the south to the north. Business Society asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly sorted out.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2380.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2406.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.10%. Weekend prices fell 8.05% year-on-year. On July 24th, the urea commodity index was 114.42, an increase of 2.5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 105.79% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased cost support, better downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 4068.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4086.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.44%, and the weekend price has decreased by 33.13% year-on-year; The price of Anthracite rose slightly. This week, the price of Anthracite (washing medium block) in Yangquan was 1010 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 2866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.16%. The weekend price decreased by 24.24% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea slightly decreased this week, from 6575.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6650.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.37%.

From a demand perspective: agricultural demand has increased, while industrial demand is average. The peak season for fertilizer use in summer has begun, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late July, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea cost support has increased. The downstream agricultural peak season begins, with good agricultural demand and average industrial demand. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

This week, the lead market (7.14-7.21) fell first and then rose, showing an overall upward trend. The average price in the domestic market was 15575 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 15670 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 0.61%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of fluctuations, with recent market trends showing volatility, and the lead ingot market experiencing mixed gains and losses.

In terms of the futures market, the overall strength of Shanghai lead this week has been fluctuating. On the macro level, the yuan index rebounded and closed four consecutive positive days. The performance of US employment data is still good, and the metal market has generally fluctuated in a narrow range this week. Fundamentally speaking, as the weather turns hot, smelting enterprises in major production areas such as Henan and Anhui have recently started operating on a low level, with some areas experiencing a tight supply of lead ingots. In terms of demand, as we enter late July, downstream storage orders are starting to improve, showing signs of gradually entering the peak season, and market expectations are gradually improving. Overall, the downstream peak season factors are beginning to emerge, and the market is expected to improve. However, in the short term, the trend will still follow macro fluctuations, and the market is looking forward to a recovery in downstream demand in August.

On July 23, the base metal index stood at 1214 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 89.10% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2023 (7.17-7.21), of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities in terms of increase were dysprosium metal (7.01%), dysprosium iron alloy (6.30%) and Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.02%). There are a total of 7 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-3.55%), copper (-1.09%), and antimony (-0.98%) being the top 3 products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8157 yuan/ton on July 14, and the average price on July 21 was 8171 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.18%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on July 14th was 8850 yuan/ton, and the average price on July 21st was 8895 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.51% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9250 yuan/ton on July 14th, and the average price on July 21st was 9312 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.68%.

Polyethylene prices have slightly increased this week. In terms of supply, the loss of domestic polyethylene device maintenance during the week has increased compared to the previous period. Temporary parking, maintenance, and decoration of domestic polyethylene have increased, with concentrated device maintenance and a decrease in local supply, supporting the rise in polyethylene prices. In terms of demand, July is in the off-season of demand, and downstream purchases are mainly on demand.

In the later stage, domestic polyethylene maintenance and decoration will gradually restart, increasing supply pressure and insufficient support from various aspects. It is expected that polyethylene may be mainly adjusted for vibration.

This week, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3062.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3062.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 13.89%.

On the supply side: fluorite production starts to maintain supply with little change

The current game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains stable, and the spot supply of fluorite is normal. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid remains below 60%, and there is still a strong demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises are shutting down, and the demand based procurement of raw fluorite is the main focus. The price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, and the refrigerant market is sluggish

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, with the mainstream price discussed in various regions of the country ranging from 9300 to 9700 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down and waiting for market demand, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak, which has affected the weak market situation of hydrofluoric acid. The terminal demand is not good, and the demand for fluorite is mainly for procurement, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable.

The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Due to quota elimination in the R22 market, large-scale units have replaced R507 products, resulting in a slow increase in product sales. The fluoropolymer market continues to be sluggish, refrigerant R22 manufacturers have low load, domestic market performance is weak, inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is temporarily stable. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, In addition, the export market has declined, resulting in weak domestic and foreign demand. The refrigerant market is sluggish, and upstream raw material procurement is scarce. The fluorite market price is mainly stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including Lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductor and other fields, fluorite applications have been supported to a certain extent.

Future Market Forecast: The supply of fluorite ore is still tight in the near future, but the hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the operation of hydrofluoric acid plants remains low. In addition, there is no significant improvement in demand in the refrigerant industry, and the refrigerant market is sluggish. Long and short factors together affect the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the trend of fluorite prices may be weak and stable in the future.

The price of O-Xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 14, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of O-Xylene 8100 yuan/ton on July 7 last weekend; Compared to July 1st at the beginning of the month, prices have stabilized. The price of mixed xylene rose sharply, the downstream market of phthalic anhydride rose in a volatile manner, the upstream and downstream markets of ortho benzene rose together, and the market of ortho benzene industry chain recovered. The price of O-Xylene was temporarily stable this week.

The market for raw material mixed xylene has significantly increased this week

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton or 2.12% compared to the price of 7540 yuan/ton on July 7th last weekend; The price of mixed xylene increased by 4.90% to 7340 yuan/ton compared to July 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of crude oil rose sharply, the price of Naphtha and mixed xylene rose in shock, the cost of raw materials rose, and the market of O-Xylene gained momentum.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market rebounds and rises

According to the analysis system of the market for phthalic anhydride products in the business society, as of July 14th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% compared to the 7625 yuan/ton price of phthalic anhydride on July 7th last weekend; The price of phthalic anhydride increased by 0.65% compared to 7700 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. The phthalic anhydride unit stopped for a short time, the phthalic anhydride price rebounded and rose this week, the downstream demand of ortho xylene was stable, and the upward momentum of O-Xylene market remained.

Future prospects

According to the O-Xylene data analysts of the business community, the price of Naphtha and mixed xylene has risen, and the cost of raw materials has risen due to the rise of crude oil; The phthalic anhydride unit stopped for a short time, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose, and the support for the rise of O-Xylene increased. In the future, the price of raw materials mixed with xylene has increased, while the cost of ortho benzene has increased; The price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, with strong downstream demand for ortho benzene and stable demand for rising costs. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 11, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial grade Dimethyl carbonate is 4800 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton lower than that of July 7, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate is 4900 yuan/ton), a decrease of 2.04%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that at the beginning of July, the overall market situation of Dimethyl carbonate in China was stable, consolidated and operated. With the increase of Dimethyl carbonate supply in the market, the overall market supply increased. However, the overall performance of downstream demand was general, and the supply and demand transmission of Dimethyl carbonate was blocked. Entering this week, some Dimethyl carbonate factories and suppliers began to downward adjust the price of Dimethyl carbonate, with an adjustment range of 100-200 yuan/ton. As of July 11, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate is around 4500-5000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall trading and investment atmosphere of Dimethyl carbonate in the market is light, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. The Dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business agency believes that in the short term, the overall domestic Dimethyl carbonate market is weak, and the operation is dominated by consolidation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated slightly and increased in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 11th, the price of DOP was 9816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% compared to the price of 9666.67 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer DOP increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9600 yuan/ton on July 11th, an increase of 2.67% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer products increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased.

The market for raw material phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of July 11th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of 7700 yuan/ton for phthalic anhydride on July 1st. In July, the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose, and the market for phthalic anhydride rebounded. The production of phthalic anhydride enterprises was stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient. Downstream demand for on-demand procurement was poor, and the cost of raw materials stabilized. The pressure on the cost of plasticizers to decline was weakened.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose. The cost of plasticizer product DOP increased, and the downward pressure on plasticizer product DOP prices weakened, increasing the upward momentum. In the future, with rising costs, sufficient supply of plasticizer DOP and weak demand, the upward momentum of plasticizer is increasing, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 792 yuan/ton. On July 10th, the average market price in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%, and a decrease of 36.27% compared to the same period last year. On July 9th, the caustic soda commodity index was 113.38, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.29% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 74.14% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda in China is weak this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 690-800 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 720-900 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has declined, and although there have been equipment maintenance by caustic soda enterprises, the overall results are average. The short-term demand for downstream alumina is average, with more purchases made on demand and a supply-demand game. The price of caustic soda remains weak.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 27th week of 2023 (7.3-7.7), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (0.58%); The main commodities falling are: flake alkali (-1.20%), caustic soda (-0.51%), and PVC (-0.27%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.2%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and overall inventory in the supply side is high. Downstream alumina is still purchasing more on demand, and the ordering sentiment is average. The supply and demand game comprehensively predicts the future or weak operating market, depending on downstream market demand.