According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic toluene market experienced a slight rebound after a volatile downward trend in December 2025, indicating a weak overall trend. From December 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fluctuated from 5330 yuan/ton to 5160 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 3.19% during the period. The overall operating range was lower than November, mainly affected by the weak supply and demand and insufficient cost support.

In the first half of the month, the domestic toluene market began a volatile downward trend. As a core production area, Shandong’s main refineries were the first to lower their prices. On the 16th, the mainstream local price range fell to 5020-5050 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; The East China region is weakening synchronously, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious, lacking substantial positive factors to boost, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards.
Late period: The market fluctuated within a certain range, with prices in East and South China temporarily increasing. However, weak terminal demand constrained the rebound space, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in the market remained unchanged. Refineries actively shipped and controlled inventory, but downstream responses were flat, maintaining overall weak stability and volatility.
Cost wise: In December 2025, the domestic crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, with narrow fluctuations in the first half of the year. The news of OPEC’s slight increase in production in December and the suspension of production in the first quarter of 2026 briefly boosted market sentiment, but failed to reverse the loose pattern. Domestic port commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.67% month on month, and supply pressure began to emerge. After mid month, concerns about global crude oil oversupply intensified, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel, driving the domestic market to follow suit. Although geopolitical events such as the escalation of US sanctions on Venezuela triggered a short-term rebound during this period, it was difficult to change the trend. As the end of the year approaches in the latter half of the year, market trading activity has decreased under the pressure of capital recovery. The operating rate of domestic main refineries is sluggish, and the weak trend of terminal demand has not changed, further suppressing oil prices and presenting a fundamental driven downward trend throughout the process. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.08 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $61.94 per barrel, an increase of $1.30 or 2.1%.
Demand side: Downstream on-demand procurement shows overall weakness
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, Sinopec Sales Company has implemented a price of 7000 yuan/ton, and the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China have uniformly implemented this price; The main facilities of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, and the sales of products are normal. The current price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to November 28th.
In terms of international markets, as of December 29th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $867-869/ton FOB Korea and $892-894/ton CFR China, an increase of $66/ton from November 27th.
The domestic oil and chemical industry continues to adopt the strategy of replenishing inventory according to demand, with low purchasing enthusiasm and no centralized replenishment behavior, which has limited effect on driving prices. The xylene (PX) market has become the main bearish factor, with significant fluctuations in the December contract price of PX in Zhengzhou commodity trading in the latter half of the year. The closing price on the 29th was 7208 yuan/ton, which fell from the mid month high, and the mixed xylene price was under pressure and weakened due to cost transmission.

Market forecast: Currently, the domestic toluene market is in a weak balance of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the rebound in international crude oil prices provides some cost support, limiting the downward space for toluene; On the other hand, the off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term, resulting in a lack of substantial market benefits. Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile operating pattern in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil prices and the improvement of downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has seen a slight increase this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6636 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6688 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.78%.

News: On December 24th, international crude oil futures remained stable. The settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.35 per barrel, a decrease of $0.03 or 0.05%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $62.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.12 or 0.2%.
Cost wise: The market for raw material pure benzene has slightly increased. From the fundamental perspective of pure benzene, the high inventory in the main port is difficult to reduce, which has dragged down the market mentality. However, the export of styrene has increased, and the market mentality has slightly improved. The United States has intensified its crackdown on oil tankers in a certain country in South America, causing a surge in international oil prices, which may provide some support for the current market.
Supply and demand side: With the restart of some maintenance devices, there is an increase in supply. The price of styrene has risen, downstream losses have intensified, and resistance to high priced raw materials has increased. Downstream follow-up efforts have been made, and EPS industry production has declined. ABS/PS losses have expanded, and procurement follow-up has been cautious.
Styrene external market: On December 25th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by 7.5 US dollars/ton, with a closing price of 825-830 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 835-840 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The recent performance of the styrene export market is good, which will boost the market. However, due to the increase in supply and port arrivals, it is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market did not continue the upward trend of last week, and the market mainly stopped rising and fell back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province fell by 0.92% this week (12.15-19). The main reason is the stable amount of ammonia, which affects the supply and sales due to rain and snow weather in the north. In addition, local environmental inspections have affected demand, coupled with the recovery of supply in Henan. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2400-2600 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week, with no decrease in liquid ammonia production in Shandong and Hebei regions, and an increase in supply due to the resumption of production by enterprises in Henan region. Due to the impact of snow in Shanxi and other regions, transportation is restricted, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in enterprise warehouses. At the beginning of the week, the market was relatively stable. Some companies in the northern region made downward adjustments from mid week to the weekend, but the magnitude was not significant. Large factories in Shandong generally adjusted prices between 50-100 yuan. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand, but companies still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises are affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has been stable, and the price has slightly rebounded within the week. However, the price has not continued to rise near the weekend. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase of urea is 1.46%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, although there may be a slight decline in production in some areas in the short term. Due to future weather conditions, transportation difficulties may increase, and there may still be supply risks in the market. Combined with the current off-season for agricultural demand, the market for feed ammonia may not improve, and the future market will mainly maintain range fluctuations.

price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 5175 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 5193.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.35%.
The isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. There is some support in terms of cost, and the quotes from various manufacturers are relatively stable. The intention of factories to lower their prices has weakened, and coupled with limited spot supply at ports, the confidence in the isopropanol market in the market is still good, with downstream demand as the main factor. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5100-5150 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu region are around 5200-5300 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price is relatively stable this week, and downstream demand is average, mainly based on demand. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly focus on weak consolidation, with more attention paid to the trading trends of major companies.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 1st to 5th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices showed a strong upward trend, with an average price of 14533 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14666 yuan/ton at the end of the week. During the period, the price increased by 0.92% and decreased by 19.19% year-on-year. During the week, there were frequent reports of major foreign companies undergoing maintenance and price increases. At the same time, domestic companies also added new maintenance, increasing expectations of tight supply and boosting market confidence. Downstream demand is the main factor, cautious entry into the market, with small transactions and a large number of individual units, and the aggregated MDI market slightly rising.

Supply side: Maintenance will begin in Ningbo on November 15th and is expected to last for about 55 days. BASF Chongqing plant and Covestro Shanghai plant both have maintenance plans for December. Huntsman Netherlands’ 280000 tons/year MDI plant unexpectedly shut down in late November and is expected to continue until mid December, with the remaining production lines operating at low load. The 400000 ton/year MDI plant in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in January 2026.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market fluctuated within a range this week. The main ports in East China will enter a continuous accumulation phase. In addition, with the weather turning cold, there is a shortage of terminal orders, and the enthusiasm for downstream production is not high, which still puts pressure on the price repair of the industrial chain. Under the long short game, it is expected that the pure benzene market will operate in a range consolidation. This week, the aniline market fell from a high level. On December 5th, the market price of aniline was 7970 yuan/ton, and on December 1st, the price was 8145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.15% during the period.
On the demand side, downstream demand enters the market on demand, increasing resistance to high priced goods and making it difficult to increase transaction volume.
Future forecast: The current supply of aggregated MDI market is tightening, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. We will closely monitor the market transaction situation and expect the aggregated MDI market to operate strongly in the short term.

The epoxy chloropropane market fell first and then stabilized in November. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.88% compared to the beginning of this month.

Factors influencing the grid:
Raw material side: The price of raw material glycerol has fallen due to external factors, which has weakened the support for the market price of epichlorohydrin. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased this month, but it has fallen again towards the end of the month. Overall, the cost side has fluctuated, and there is insufficient support for epichlorohydrin. Traders are pessimistic, signing new contracts for new orders, and have a strong willingness to sell at low prices, resulting in a weakened overall market operation. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6193.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.23% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market has weak demand, and the trading atmosphere for actual orders is cold. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase cautiously, which further exacerbates the market downturn. Downstream terminal consumption of epichlorohydrin is not strong and lacks strong support. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that cost support for epoxy chloropropane will weaken. Downstream demand is weak, with urgent purchases and a cold trading atmosphere. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 1st to 28th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2155 yuan/ton and then rose to 2115 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.86% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 7.42%, and a year-on-year decline of 22.67%.

In November, the domestic methanol market showed an overall trend of first suppression and then rebound. The port market continues to face high inventory pressure, and the high supply pattern continues to suppress prices. During this period, the demand for imported goods has increased, and inventory is still accumulating. Moreover, due to factors such as reverse flow of goods, the supply-demand contradiction in the market has always existed, leading to an overall downward fluctuation in prices. At the end of the month, boosted by news of limited overseas natural gas supply, overseas facilities were gradually shut down, leading to a possible peak in port inventories. The port market prices stopped falling and rebounded, ending the previous downward trend.
As of the close on November 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2115 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2138 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2113 yuan/ton. It closed at 2135 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.85% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 942920, the position is 1048516, and the daily increase is 56142.
On the cost side, the imported thermal coal market showed relatively active performance in November, with coal prices continuing to operate in a stable to strong trend. Market quotations have all been raised, and the sentiment has improved. Imported coal prices still have a significant advantage compared to domestic coal prices, thereby supporting market activity. With foreign mines closely monitoring changes in the domestic market and the rising market sentiment, foreign mine quotations continue to remain firm. The seasonal cooling has led to an increase in terminal inventory replenishment enthusiasm, and coupled with the tight supply from production areas at the end of the year, most importers have strong market expectations, resulting in significant support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, there is significant pressure on the demand side, with significant price drops in downstream secondary and tertiary markets in recent times, leading to severe profit losses for most industries and significant constraints on the enthusiasm and actual demand for methanol procurement. The expected reduction in demand in November will be mainly reflected in the MTO industry, which is the core downstream consumer sector of methanol. The impact of its demand contraction on the market is particularly critical. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on November 28th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market is closed due to public holidays; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, in addition to the gradual seasonal shutdown of some gas pipelines in Sichuan and Chongqing, it is still necessary to closely monitor the temperature in Iran and the actual impact of the shutdown of methanol projects. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the fluctuations in the domestic methanol spot market are limited.

In November 2025, the overall price of polyester bottle chips showed a fluctuating and weak trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price fluctuated between 5600-5830 yuan/ton in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of polyester bottle chips was weak. On the 14th, driven by a significant rebound in crude oil, its average sales price rose to 5812 yuan/ton; Affected by factors such as cost and supply and demand, prices continued to weaken and fluctuate downwards from the 17th to the 21st, closing at 5710 yuan/ton on the 21st; After the 21st, the weak trend continued, with a price of 5690 yuan/ton on the 24th and factory quotes mostly concentrated between 5630-5810 yuan/ton on the 25th. The futures market also showed a fluctuating weak pattern.

Cost side fluctuations dominate short-term price swings: On the 14th, due to the end of the US government shutdown and additional production cuts by oil producing countries, crude oil prices rebounded significantly, driving up upstream raw material prices such as PTA and pushing up polyester bottle prices on the same day. However, the international crude oil prices fluctuated downward in the middle and late stages, dragging down the prices of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol, and the transmission of costs was not smooth. Factories found it difficult to maintain high prices, directly lowering the prices of polyester bottle chips.
Loose supply intensifies price pressure: The industry’s operating rate has remained above 70% this month. Although some facilities have undergone maintenance or restarts, overall supply fluctuations are small and spot prices are abundant. And the 300000 ton new plant in Shandong is expected to discharge by the end of November, further increasing domestic supply. At the same time, factory inventory is likely to enter a seasonal accumulation channel, making it difficult for the supply side to support price increases.
Weak demand suppresses price increases: Currently in the off-season of demand and the Spring Festival stocking window period, downstream factories only maintain essential replenishment. In terms of terminals, the production of soft drinks from January to October decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, making it difficult to stimulate bottle consumption; Although export quotations have generally stabilized, there is no positive boost, which cannot offset the impact of weak domestic demand. Market trading is sluggish, making it difficult to drive price increases.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, and price increases will face resistance. We need to focus on the trend of international crude oil prices, the supply of raw materials such as PX/PTA, and the actual recovery level of downstream orders.