I. price trend

The average price of cryolite as of November 27 was 6100 yuan / ton, down 3.68% month on month and 5.18% year-on-year, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 27, the cryolite commodity index was 74.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.80% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 11.67% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the factory quotation of cryolite in Henan Province is stable, the market price is 5000-6900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is flexible, mainly through negotiation; the price of cryolite in Shandong Province is temporarily stable, the factory quotation is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. By the end of July 27, the price of cryolite of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. was 6900 yuan / ton; that of Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology cryolite was 6400 yuan / ton; that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. was 5000 yuan / ton. As a whole, the shipment of the enterprise was smooth and the transaction was fair.

Industrial chain: the upstream raw material sulfuric acid market operates in a differentiated way, with market ups and downs showing each other. In the heating season, the environmental protection and transportation inspection efforts in Shandong, Hebei and Henan are still the same. After the national day, the small factories in the lower reaches are under normal operation, and the weak demand situation is hard to change. At present, the supply and demand of acid city are still strong and weak, and the good support is limited. In terms of upstream fluorite, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. In the near future, the domestic fluorite device starts normally, the mine and flotation device in the field starts normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream stays at a low level in the near future. For the fluorite market, the purchase on demand is common in the fluorite field. The domestic performance of the downstream aluminum market is relatively flat, and the export performance of aluminum materials is poor, and the fundamentals are complete The body is weak.

Industry: at present, the cryolite manufacturer’s devices are in normal operation, the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient without pressure, and the shipment is acceptable. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have slightly increased the start-up, the overall inventory is good, and the manufacturer’s mentality is optimistic.

III. future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, at present, cryolite manufacturers mainly offer multi-dimensional and stable ex factory quotations, the devices are in normal operation, the inventory is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. It is expected that the market of cryolite in the later period will be weak, and the market demand will be specifically focused.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2019, the average domestic market price of natural rubber (standard I) in China was 10650 yuan / ton, and on November 25, the average market price was 12116 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.77%. 12116 yuan / ton is the highest average market price of natural rubber in 2019 so far monitored by business agency. As can be seen from the above figure, since 2019, the market of natural rubber has fluctuated from 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton; there have been three times of high price: 12070 yuan / ton on March 4 is the first high price, 12020 on June 11 is the second high price, and the price of 12116 yuan / ton on November 25 is the current highest price in the year; two times of low price: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May is the second high price A low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August is the lowest price this year. On the whole, the maximum price difference between high and low points since 2019 is about 1856 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of about 18%.

After eight years, the price of natural rubber fell by three quarters. In 2019, the market trend of “falling constantly and feebly” has gone through the first 11 and a half months. Finally, when it was over two-thirds in November, it stopped rising. As shown in the above figure, Shanghai rubber has a large amount of capital attention, and the market has been strongly pulled up. A set of “slightly visible” market has come to the industry. These days, the industry jokingly said that after waiting for more than half a year, it’s a few days to come. It can be said that the impact of economic environment and the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand make the price of natural rubber in the first 11 months of 2019 exhausted the market confidence and enthusiasm, and the current upward trend in a few days is a little relieved for the industry; the key is that in the later stage, the market generally believes that the locking of production will promote the further upward space of natural rubber market in the next days. However, the current price rise, strong wait-and-see mood at the purchasing end, the actual transaction is not very active.

II. Market analysis

In terms of supply, in domestic production areas, the local rubber cutting in Yunnan will be stopped at the end of November. At present, the amount of rubber is very small, and the cutting in Hainan will be stopped in mid December. Foreign producing areas, Thailand and Malaysia suffer from fungal diseases, which have a certain impact on their output; the latest report of the international tripartite rubber Council (ITRC) shows that in the first half of the year, 382000 hectares of rubber plantations in Indonesia are affected by fungal diseases, which is expected to lead to an expected decline of 540000 tons of rubber exports in Indonesia this year. Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, narativa, which borders Malaysia in the south of Thailand, was also attacked by fungal viruses. It is estimated that at least 50000 hectares of plantations will be affected. Combined with the damage in the three countries, ITRC believes that rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decrease by 800000 tons this year. On the whole, the gradual tightening of natural rubber production is the biggest price influencing factor for the market. Since the 20th, Shanghai rubber has risen sharply, and the spot price of natural rubber has gradually increased.

In terms of inventory, as of November 22, 2019, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period decreased by 11000 tons to 489500 tons, and warehouse receipts increased by 4300 tons to 460900 tons.

In terms of import and export, China’s customs data shows that in October 2019, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 500000 tons, down 8.4% from 546000 tons last month; from January to October, China’s total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5213000 tons. In Southeast Asia, Thailand’s natural rubber exports in October fell 24% year-on-year and rose 8% month on month, benefiting from the expiration of Thailand’s four-month export restriction order at the end of September, and Thailand said it would adopt policies to support rubber farmers.

In terms of demand, the data shows that in October, the production and sales of heavy trucks were 91000, 12.3% and 8.3% month on month, 25.8% and 14.1% year on year. From January to October, the production and sales of heavy trucks were 942000 and 980000, up 2% and 0.4% year on year. It is reported that the current operating rate of downstream tire enterprises is about 70%, and the influence of seasonal factors and environmental protection factors should also be taken into account in rubber purchasing demand.

III. future forecast

According to the natural rubber analysts of the business club, the output of the natural rubber market has been tightened in the near future, and the inventory has also been slightly reduced. The downstream demand is in the off-season stable period. The overall supply and demand Bureau has short-term favorable factors, and the recent trend continues to rise, but the fundamental contradiction cannot be fundamentally changed in the short term. Considering that the overall rubber price is still in a low price area, but in recent days, the price has increased by as much as 1000 yuan compared with the first and middle of November, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the actual results are average. In the future, we should consider the possibility of short-term technical callback, as well as the influence of merger factors that China’s domestic regions stop cutting in succession and Southeast Asia’s production areas come into peak season. In the later stage, the possibility of large decline is not great, the short-term callback pressure is large, the medium-term upward space is still available, and the long-term fundamental change in demand still needs to be noted.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (November 25, 2019): 14200 yuan / ton

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 14000-14100 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14100-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14200-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 14000-14200 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: in the near future, the price of magnesium ingot is mainly weak and stable, and the quotation of magnesium enterprises in the main production areas has not changed much. It is reported that the actual volume of trade is not large at present. Some manufacturers wait for the market changes and do not offer to the outside temporarily. The low price supply of small factories happens from time to time. At present, the amount of inquiry is not large, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in the near future.

4. Future market forecast: the overall market is weak. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be weak and stable in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be paid attention to in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market was stable, cautious and inventory remained low. This week, the domestic toluene Market slightly fell 0.88.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, this week’s market trend is stable with little change in trading volume. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5700-5750 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was stable, and the port inventory continued to decline, about 19000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.95% at sight, Brent futures up 0.33%, WTI futures up 1.30% and Dubai futures up 0.31%.

On the downstream side, TDI, the domestic TDI market fell in a narrow range this week, and the attitude of the industry tends to be cautious. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will be weak in the later period. In the PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week is temporarily stable, while the external market trend is stable. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market price will remain around 6800 yuan / ton.

 
III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next week.

I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate has started to fall since this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 20, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 563 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 8.65%. On November 20, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.65% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.62% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the current market is weak. The domestic demand of domestic ammonium sulphate is weak, and the supply of coking ammonium sulphate is sufficient, mainly in port. So far this month, the overall price of ammonium sulfate in China has been continuously reduced. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-720 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-600 yuan, and that in North China is 450-600 yuan.

Industrial chain: in recent years, domestic sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. The domestic sulfuric acid plants have stable operation, relatively tight market supply, general downstream gas buying, and limited market transactions. Compound fertilizer enterprises are weak and stable. Due to the decline of cost and price, the market of compound fertilizer is not optimistic. The conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer has come to an end. At present, dealers are waiting for the introduction of winter storage policy.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association believe that at present, the supply of ammonium sulphate market is sufficient, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the transaction situation is not ideal. Winter storage market has not yet opened, and the market is waiting for guidance. It is predicted that in the later stage, there will be a small fluctuation in the range of internal ammonium sulphate, and the main shock finishing of coking ammonium sulphate.

I. price trend

Styrene prices fell this week. According to the data of business agency, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (November 11) was 7450.00 yuan / ton, and that of sample enterprises on Friday (November 15) was 7400.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.67%, 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products:

This week styrene market price narrow range finishing, market supply is good. On November 11, the styrene in East China closed at 7450-7500 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the styrene in East China closed at 7350-7450 yuan / ton, down about 50-100 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On November 11, South China styrene closed at 7700 yuan / ton, and on November 15, South China styrene closed at 7550-7600 yuan / ton, down by 100-150 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of the above factories. The styrene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. By Friday, the styrene port inventory in East China fell, but the overall styrene supply in the field increased slightly. On the whole, the week was steady.

Industrial chain:

The upstream crude oil market was slightly lower this week, down 0.22%, ethylene was up 1.75%, pure benzene was slightly lower 0.19%, and styrene production cost support was weak. On the downstream side, EPS fell slightly by 0.67% and PS rose sharply by 2.54%. In terms of overall operating rate, downstream enterprises still maintain low demand. The deadlock between supply and demand is hard to break, and the market lacks strong support. Styrene production enterprises still maintain a certain profit margin, but the space is narrowed. With the expected arrival of the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli petrochemical, as well as the gradual increase of styrene imports to the port in the middle and late November, the port delivery is expected to be less than the arrival volume. Based on the expectations of many parties, the whole industrial chain is short of strong and long empty.

III. future

This week, the international oil price and energy continued to fall. Domestic enterprises stepped up inventory removal, and the trading was flat. It is expected that styrene will mainly settle the market at a low level next week.

I. price trend

This week’s domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market slightly pushed up, with the average price of 3876.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3890 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.34% in the week, 12.9% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic LNG narrow range adjustment, the market trading atmosphere improved. As of November 15. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3840 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton The price of LPG produced from Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose steadily, with no obvious fluctuation. The recovery of liquefied gas market has stimulated the mentality of propane downstream replenishment and driven the atmosphere of propane transaction. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil continued to fall. In the face of news that the market continued to be bullish, petrochemical enterprises cut prices, and most manufacturers followed suit. The downstream demand is flat, and the upstream traders mainly deliver goods. Thursday’s slight rise in crude oil boosted the market, but in the north of the heating season, terminal demand did not improve substantially. After the price reduction, the shipment has improved, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the manufacturers have increased slightly.

Industrial chain:

Dimethyl ether: the market price of methyl ether (Henan) continued to fall on Tuesday. The lower reaches are more bearish towards the future market and have no intention to enter the market for the falling market. They are cautious and wait-and-see. At present, there is no obvious improvement in market demand, and the shipment of manufacturers is not smooth. The inventory in Henan Province is increasing gradually, and the mentality is relatively tired. This week, xinlianxin repeatedly implemented the minimum guarantee policy. Most of the manufacturers fell below 3000 yuan / ton. At present, the price has fallen to the cost, and some enterprises’ profits are hanging upside down, reducing production to ease the pressure of sales and inventory.

Propane: this week, the propane market was adjusted, and the trading atmosphere was slightly improved. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously, and the trend of the liquefied gas market was weak. In addition, the intake gas resources were abundant and the price was low, which hit the enthusiasm of the downstream market. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the demand was average. The main enterprises delivered profits and the price fell slightly. Later in the week, with the slight increase of international crude oil and the decrease of propane price, the mentality of downstream replenishment was stimulated. The trading atmosphere was gradually improved. The market rose and fell mutually, and Shandong market recovered after the slight increase.

Saudi Aramco announced in November CP that all of the propanbutane had been increased. Propane rose to $430 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month; butane rose $445 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3844 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3916 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three of which are liquefied natural gas (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied gas (0.34%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (- 2.98%) as the top three products. This week’s average was – 0.57%.

III. future forecast

Liquefied gas analysts believe that: the current price is relatively low, the downstream mentality has improved, replenishment into the market. The market transaction atmosphere turned warm, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was relieved. Market demand is still expected to increase, the seller’s mentality is strong, and the willingness to decline is not strong. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise next week.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1683 yuan / ton, while the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China at the weekend was 1650 yuan / ton, down 1.98%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to fall, with the quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. of 1600 yuan / ton, which was stable; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. of 1550 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Shandong helitai nitric acid Co., Ltd. of 1800 yuan / ton, which was stable. Anhui Audley offered 1580 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 1980 yuan / ton, basically stable. Nitric acid market demand is light, manufacturers offer weak.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material of the upstream of nitric acid, according to the monitoring of the business association, the price of liquid ammonia this week is mainly weak. For the downstream aniline, the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 7150 yuan / ton, down 10.1% compared with last week; the market price of aniline in Nanjing was 7530 yuan / ton, down 10.4% compared with last week; the domestic TDI market was weak, and the overall atmosphere in the market was still weak, and the volume of transactions was insufficient.

III. future forecast

To sum up, the nitric acid analyst of the business association thinks that the nitric acid market may be dominated by weak operation.

I. price data:

II. Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic coke market is weak and stable this week. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1830 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1870 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong Province is 1750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1740 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1770 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1760 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; Tangshan, Hebei Province The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 1740 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1790 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 1980 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2220 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market The main price of metallurgical coke is 1400 yuan / ton. The port trades about 2000 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 1900 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1800 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke.

Products: the domestic coke market is weak and stable this week. Affected by weather warning in some areas, the operating rate of coke enterprises has declined. However, the overall supply of the market is still relatively abundant. The inventory of some coke enterprises keeps accumulating. Affected by the downturn of intra industry investment, coke enterprises are highly motivated to ship. In the downstream, the steel price is stable and rising. The profit of the steel plant is acceptable. The purchase of the steel plant is still just in demand. After coke Most cities hold a pessimistic attitude. At present, the industry is dominated by wait-and-see mood.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three of which are liquefied natural gas (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied gas (0.34%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (- 2.98%) as the top three products.

III. future forecast

According to the coke analysts of the business association, at present, the overall turnover of the domestic coke market is relatively soft, and the coke steel market is facing the expectation of limiting production. The steel mills just need to purchase, and the coke enterprises are active in shipping, but the turnover is limited. It has been predicted that the coke market will still operate in a weak position in the near future. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the policy and steel plant inventory.

Trade name: phenol

East China market (November 13): 7150 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Phenol Sinopec cut the order by 250 yuan / ton on December 12, and implemented 7300 yuan / ton. Under the pressure of loss of shipment from suppliers on March 13, the intention of low delivery turned weak. The East China market took the lead in pushing up the market, but the price was low. The center of gravity went up in the afternoon. The middlemen inquired cautiously. The downstream just needed to buy, and the overall atmosphere was relatively light. However, in general, the East China market increased by 100 yuan / ton a day. Until the decline of phenol, it is expected that today The domestic phenol market continues to rise cautiously, and the negotiation range of East China phenol Market is 7150-7200 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 7150 + 100

Shandong area 7300

7350 + 100 around Yanshan

South China 7450 0

 
Trade name: acetone

Market price (November 13, East China): 4950 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the acetone market continues to rise. Although there is a port supply, it will take some time to enter the circulation. At present, there is still a small supply of goods in the hands of large customers. The sentiment of the buyer is not abated. The increase of downstream terminal inquiry is followed up one by one. The market is constantly pushing up, and the firm deal is still OK. The business community expects that acetone still has room to rise. Today, we need to pay attention to Sinopec’s offer situation, East China city The negotiation is expected to be more than 5000 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of acetone in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 4950 + 50

Shandong area 4900

Surrounding area of Yanshan: 4800 + 50

5000 + 100 in South China