1、 Analysis of Acetic Acid Industry Chain

From the price rise and fall chart of the acetic acid industry chain in June, it can be seen that the entire range of acetic acid and downstream products has declined. Methanol (0.85%) in the upstream of the industrial chain has not changed much, and the cost side benefits are not much, but the downstream cost pressure is becoming increasingly severe. The decline in acetic acid was significant, exceeding 10%. The main downstream products continued their downward trend, with prices of ethyl acetate (-1.95%) and butyl ester (-4.96%) falling.

2、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of acetic acid fell in June, especially in the second half of the month, with an accelerated decline and a straight downward trend. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3250 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 2880 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 10.36% during the month.

In June, the domestic acetic acid market was weak and weak, with low raw material prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand on the demand side was not good, and purchasing in the market immediately needed to follow up. In the early stage, there was maintenance of acetic acid plants on the market, but due to light market trading, the performance of acetic acid rose weakly, and the transaction center remained low. In the later stage, the maintenance plants restarted, and the market supply increased. The confidence of operators was insufficient, resulting in a significant decline in acetic acid prices. As of the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of East China acetic acid is in the range of 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

3、 Analysis of the market trend of ethyl acetate

This month, domestic ethyl acetate saw a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of ethyl acetate was 1.95%. Towards the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was between 6500-6650 yuan/ton.

Specifically, in June, the trading atmosphere for ethyl acetate was light, with downstream procurement being mainly in demand. The ethyl acetate markets in East, Central, and South China all showed varying degrees of decline, and the market stabilized at the end of the month, accompanied by slight upward movements by some manufacturers in East China. At the end of the month, prices have increased to varying degrees. The market supply and demand pattern has improved. But throughout June, due to weak demand, overall market shipments remained at a low level. The prices of raw materials and acetic acid have plummeted significantly this month, with a drop of over 10%. Weak cost support.

4、 Analysis of the Market Trend of Butyl Acetate

This month, the domestic butyl acetate experienced a significant decline, mainly due to cost bearishness, a decline in raw materials, and weak supply and demand. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the monthly decline of butyl acetate is 4.96%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range is between 7200 to 7400 yuan/ton.

Specifically, the significant decline in raw material acetic acid this month has brought downward momentum to downstream butyl esters. Due to the easing of cost pressure, enterprises are more inclined to sell at reduced prices in the face of sluggish demand. More importantly, due to the weak supply and demand side, the price of butyl ester has not emerged from the haze. Downstream procurement is more on demand, and manufacturers are more on demand, resulting in sluggish transactions. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry has remained low, generally below 40%, and the price increase behavior of manufacturers has to some extent alleviated the downward trend of butyl acetate.

5、 Future prospects of the acetic acid industry chain

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the short term, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the cost side may face a long and short transition. In the early stage, the price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, and currently, the adjustment is basically in place, and the market has the power to stabilize and rebound. It is expected that the cost side may face favorable conditions in the later stage. However, from the perspective of both supply and demand, the market remains weak. Supply and demand are basically maintaining a weak balance, especially downstream ethyl and butyl ester enterprises with generally low operating rates. Social inventory is generally not high. It is expected that there will be little significant decline in prices in the later stage, and there is a high probability of volatility.

In June 2023, the domestic market of 1 # antimony ingot will fluctuate downward. The average market price in East China will be 82625 yuan/ton on the first day and 81625 yuan/ton on the 28th, down 1.21%.

On June 27th, the antimony commodity index was 113.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 6.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 141.87% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. In March, prices fell broadly, while in April and May, the trend remained stable. In June, prices continued to decline for three consecutive weeks.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market slightly lowered in June, with a quotation of $11850/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of $200/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of industrial chain, the antimony oxide market followed the trend of antimony ingots in June and slightly decreased by 500 yuan/ton per month, driven by the antimony ingot market. Market trading was light, and downstream demand was overall weak.

In June, the antimony ingot market experienced a downward trend due to fluctuations. In the past three months of supply and demand competition, the willingness of antimony ingot manufacturers to stand up for prices decreased, resulting in a downward trend in antimony ingot prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market has not changed much this month. In terms of supply, the operating situation of smelters remains basically unchanged, and manufacturers still maintain a mentality of being reluctant to sell. In terms of demand, the sales situation of downstream antimony oxide is still weak, and the overall performance of the downstream market is poor, with cold market trading and overall weak operation. In the second half of June, market news stated that there are expectations of an improvement in the import situation at the mining end in the future, and the market expects an increase in supply in the future. In the absence of downstream demand support, the antimony ingot market is operating empty. The overseas situation is also not optimistic. The European region is about to enter a summer break, and overseas demand is expected to decline. According to the latest export data, the export volume of antimony oxide and antimony ingots has decreased. The weakness of the overseas market also affects the mentality of the domestic market, and the market’s outlook for the future is not good. Overall, there is a weak balance between supply and demand in the market, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is difficult for downstream demand markets to improve expectations, and in the case of sluggish demand, the market performance tends to be weak. In the future, the business society predicts that the antimony ingot market will mainly operate in a stable and weak manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash is temporarily stable. The average market price of light soda ash from June 20th to June 27th was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.88% compared to the same period last year. On June 26th, the light soda ash commodity index was 100.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 59.16% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has temporarily stabilized this week. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 1900-2100 yuan/ton. The current market price of light soda ash in North China is about 2000-2200 yuan/ton. Data shows that the weekly operating rate of soda ash is around 91%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, glass prices are operating in a weak trend. On June 20th, the average market price was 22.06 yuan/square meter, while on June 27th, the average market price was 21.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.34%. The market turnover in East China is general, and the downstream and traders just need to replenish. The market maintains stable operation. The overall production and marketing in Central China is average, the market price has slightly decreased, and downstream and traders just need to replenish. The spot trading situation of South China glass is average, and the market transactions are flexible. Forecast: the glass Spot market is weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), there were 0 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-1.92%) and flake soda (-0.40%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.33%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is temporarily stable and the price fluctuation is relatively small. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash has been purchased on demand, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the auction price of the high-temperature Coal tar market rose slightly this week. From June 16 to June 25, the domestic Coal tar price rose from 3725 yuan/ton to 3842.5 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 3.15% in the cycle.

This week, the auction price of Coal tar in major domestic production areas basically rose, with slightly different increases in different regions. Among them, Shanxi region is around 3820-3870 yuan/ton, with an increase of 70-200 yuan/ton. The Shandong region is 3930 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton. Hebei region is 3750 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Jiangsu region is 3930 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above monthly Coal tar K column chart, it can be seen that since November 2022, the Coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months. The price recovered in February, fell sharply in March, and the decline again expanded in April. The weekly K column chart shows that the Coal tar market fell for six consecutive weeks, rose sharply for three consecutive weeks, and rose slightly by 3.15% this week after falling 14.61%.

This week, the auction price of Coal tar in major domestic production areas basically rose, with slightly different increases in different regions. This week, the coking enterprises started work at about 75%, basically flat compared with last week. The supply of Coal tar has little change compared with the previous period, and is slightly tight overall. In terms of demand, the deep processing industry started relatively stably this week, and the demand for Coal tar market is acceptable. The price of coal tar has also risen recently, supporting the rising of tar price this week. In the near future, the price of tar market fluctuates greatly, and the downstream product market is expected to be better near the end of the month, supporting the tar market mentality. The business community expects that the Coal tar market will have a small increase in the short term, but the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the price trend of the downstream coal tar and other major commodities.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, at the beginning of the week, the first grade industrial Potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 5250 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the first grade industrial Potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 5350 yuan/ton, up 1.90%, 3.38% month on month, and the current price fell 29.95% year on year.

Potassium nitrate

The domestic Potassium nitrate market rose this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the Potassium nitrate market has risen for two weeks in a row recently. Recently, the upstream Potassium chloride market has been consolidated, the Potassium nitrate inventory has remained low, the downstream demand is good, the market transaction is positive, and the Potassium nitrate market has risen. According to the statistics of the business agency, this week the mainstream manufacturers of Potassium nitrate in China quoted 5200-5400 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

The domestic market of imported Potassium chloride fell slightly this week, from 2825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2762.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.21%. On June 18, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 87.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.77% from the peak of 174.60 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 50.56% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in late June may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a weak consolidation state, but the Potassium nitrate stock is tight, and the market supply falls short of demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 173.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 37.09% year-on-year. On June 18th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 153.23% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market price fell slightly, from 1756.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1752.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.21%. Weekend prices fell by 21.41% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 610.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 61.64% year-on-year. Overall, there is insufficient upstream support and average downstream demand.

Future Market Forecast

In late June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market declined slightly, while the ammonium chloride market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business Society, the vitamin market has remained stable and slightly volatile this week, with some products experiencing active inquiries, including vitamin B2 jumping up and active market inquiries. Some traders have stopped reporting, while most other products are operating at the bottom, lacking upward momentum.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the vitamin C market has been running smoothly this week, with mainstream feed grade vitamin C prices ranging from 21 to 22 yuan/kg. The overall trading volume in the vitamin C market is light, with a high proportion of small orders being traded. Downstream markets just need to enter the market, with weak demand. The overall market situation is mostly in line with the market, and there is currently no significant positive support, indicating a weak performance.

This week, the price of vitamin A is temporarily stable, with the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market being 88-90 yuan/kg, and the quotation in the European market being 20-24 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has stable trading volume, with an oversupply of domestic vitamin A and weak demand, making it difficult to improve.

The price of vitamin E has not fluctuated much this week, and the current mainstream quotation in the VE market is between 75 to 80 yuan/ton. The European market offers a price of 7.4 to 7.7 euros per kilogram. The weather has turned hot, with an increase in planned maintenance companies and expectations of reduced supply, vitamin E prices have shown strong performance.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamins are currently in the bottom consolidation stage, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In the future, we will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 165.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 42.61% year-on-year. On June 11th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 43.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 141.49% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market price fell slightly, from 1768.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1756.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.71%. Weekend prices fell by 21.68% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 607.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 610.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.41%. The weekend price has decreased by 61.64% year-on-year. Overall, there is insufficient upstream support and average downstream demand.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market fell slightly, while the ammonium chloride market rose slightly, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated and fell this week. Last Friday, the average domestic PVC price was 5548 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 5524 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.43% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic Spot market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, spot prices rose in the market, while prices fell over the weekend. Overall, the price decline was the main trend. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, and downstream procurement is lukewarm and not enthusiastic. Enquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not active, and actual transactions are cautious and more wait-and-see. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5280-6170 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on June 8th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.24 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.96 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 or 1.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week. Last Friday, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 3150 yuan/ton. This Friday, the average price was 3000 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 4.76% during the week. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal has decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC market has fluctuated and declined, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and decrease, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that PVC spot prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. At present, the factory price of calcium carbide has slightly decreased. On June 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with weak cost support. In addition, the demand of PVC Spot market is still weak, and the downstream and traders are mainly wait-and-see, resulting in poor market confidence. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

This week (5.29-6.5), the market for butadiene rubber slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% from last Monday’s 10450 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline significantly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is declining; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, resulting in a decrease in merchant offers. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of June 5th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 9900 yuan/ton. As of June 5th, Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan, Qixiang, Zhenhua and other mainstream markets of butadiene rubber in East China reported 9900~10500 yuan/ton.

This week (5.29-6.5), the operating rate of butadiene rubber slightly increased, and the supply pressure slightly increased.

This week (5.29-6.5), the price of raw material butadiene continued to decline significantly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the price of butadiene was 6378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.66% from last Monday’s 7140 yuan/ton.

This week (5.29-6.5), the natural rubber market was weak and volatile, providing slight support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the price of natural rubber was 11690 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% from last Monday’s 11640 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 11600 yuan/ton.

The tire operating rate fluctuated slightly this week (5.29-6.5), with limited demand for rubber support. It is understood that as of late May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.1%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, some butadiene rubber plants will restart, increasing pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber; Downstream construction fluctuates slightly, with limited support for butadiene rubber. Although the price of natural rubber is slightly supported, the pressure on natural rubber inventory remains, and short-term support for butadiene rubber is not optimistic. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience weak consolidation in the short term.