1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda is weak. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price in Shandong market was 490 yuan / ton, which decreased by 27.94% in the same period last year. On November 26, the commodity index of caustic soda was 70.50, unchanged with yesterday, 65.92% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), and 8.28% higher than the lowest point of 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

In November, the downstream purchasing demand is general, which conflicts with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-530 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu market is 530-600 yuan / ton. The price of flake caustic soda in Shandong market is 1800-2000 yuan / ton, and the price of 99% flake caustic soda is 1600-1650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia. The downstream market is mostly purchased on demand. The market atmosphere is not good, and the downstream transaction follow-up is weak. Enterprises mainly discuss and ship. It is expected that Inner Mongolia will stabilize the market temporarily in the near future.

Upstream and demand: domestic crude salt trading atmosphere is good this week, and prices in some regions are stable and upward. The operation of sea salt is stable, the well and mineral salt areas perform well, and the price rises. The performance of lake salt is not good, the downstream purchasing intention is not good, and the market performance is weak. On the downstream side, recently, affected by the haze weather in the heating season in northern China, the restrictions on the start-up of downstream enterprises have increased, the alumina production has a downward trend, and the demand remains flat.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week (11.16-11.20) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and 0 kinds of falling commodities, and 2 kinds of commodities are up and down. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (4.12%), PVC (3.58%) and hydrochloric acid (3.28%); this week, they all rose or fell by 2.2%.

Business agency analysts believe that in the near future, the overall price of caustic soda factory is stable, the cost side is not changed much, and the operation is mainly based on big stability and small movement,. With the improvement of caustic soda production, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda consolidation will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose sharply. The domestic praseodymium and neodymium series rare earth showed an eye-catching performance. The market price of terbium rose to a record high in eight years. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on November 24 was 404 points, up 15 points compared with yesterday, and decreased by 59.60% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06) , up 49.08% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth price has been rising since the end of October. The rare earth price has risen from 354 points to 404 points, with an overall increase of 14.1%. Recently, the rare earth market has undergone frequent changes. The market price has experienced a small rise one day and a big rise in three days. In terms of products:

From the product price trend chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium have increased significantly. As of November 24, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 422500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 29.40% in one month; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 527500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 27.42% in one month; the price of neodymium oxide was 462500 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium is 567500 yuan / ton, which is up 28.98% in one month. The price of praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal also rises correspondingly, but the price of neodymium series rises by about 30%.

In recent years, the domestic production of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, coupled with the rapid development of wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries. With the slowing down of the epidemic situation, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers will continue to warm up, and the demand for NdFeB will continue to increase. However, the domestic supply side is still in the contraction situation, and the supply and demand side is seriously unbalanced, resulting in the crazy price rise of domestic neodymium market. In recent years, the demand and stock up situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is more positive. Due to the increase of overseas demand, however, with the formal entry into force of the “export control law of the people’s Republic of China” on December 1, the market expects that China’s rare earth export will further shrink, and the global supply of rare earth may further shrink. At that time, the supply of rare earth will become more tense, which will promote the price of domestic market to further rise. Compared with the market price of neodymium series, the domestic heavy rare earth market price also has a corresponding rise, dysprosium terbium series market is still the model of heavy rare earth market.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the trend of the domestic legitimate price in one month is still rising. As of 24 days, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.79 million yuan / ton, with an increase of 9.15%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.78 million yuan / ton, with a trend of 9.54% in one month. However, the domestic price of terbium series has risen sharply. On the 24th, the domestic price of terbium oxide is 6.05 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 7.65 million yuan / ton Prices rose to an eight year high. The domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of the annual output, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. In addition, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tight impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. However, the downstream demand is positive, and the price of heavy rare earth market is rising due to the terbium market Due to tight supply and imbalance between supply and demand, domestic heavy rare earth market prices are expected to continue to rise.

Under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to increase. The United States, Japan and Europe and the United States have made corresponding plans to include rare earth in the national strategic resource reserve plan. The advantages of rare earth strategic resources are prominent. China is a large rare earth reserve country, and its rare earth reserves account for 37% of the world. At the same time, China is also a major rare earth export country. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry, and the rare earth industry is moving towards high quality The development and favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is strong.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth has increased, but the domestic supply of rare earth is still tense. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of domestic rare earth market. As the overseas demand for rare earth has increased compared with the previous period, and the domestic and foreign markets are favorable, business analysts predict that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market continued to rise this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3540 yuan / ton, up 2.91% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the rise in international crude oil prices, toluene prices continued to rise this week. Sinopec’s listed toluene prices generally rose 50-200 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is at a high level, and the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3500 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, crude oil, supported by good vaccine news and OPEC’s hope of delaying production increase, this week’s international crude oil prices rose. However, due to the failure of US fiscal stimulus negotiations, the global epidemic is still serious, and oil prices are still facing downward risks. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.65/barrel to close at $43.435/barrel, up 3.95% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI, prices fell slightly this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. RMB 13500 / T for domestic goods and RMB 14000 / T for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will stabilize. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 532 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 550 US dollars / ton CFR China. PX market is expected to stabilize in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. The supply and sale of potash in Xinjiang state investment corporation is normal, with 52% powder arriving at the station price of 2640 yuan / ton, while that of 50% powder of Qinghai water salt system is about 2425 yuan / ton. At present, the market of potassium sulfate is in consolidation and operation, the operating rate remains high, the price is stable in a small range, the quotation of potassium chloride traders is high, and the future market is bullish. Recently, the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate has generally increased, with an increase of about 50 yuan. The raw material cost of potassium sulfate Market has a certain support, and the downstream demand is not obviously favorable for the recovery, and replenishment is mainly based on demand.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business club thinks: at present, the price of potassium sulfate is stable, and there is a slight warming trend. However, the downstream transaction enthusiasm is not high, the demand promotion is slow, and the price fluctuation is not big.

The gasoline market price rose sharply and fell down, and the upward pressure of MTBE market price was greater. Overall, the MTBE market price rose first and then fell following the change of gasoline price. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE on November 13 was 3616 yuan / ton, down 0.46% from the price at the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil price rose sharply, driving the domestic gasoline and diesel prices to rise slightly. Later, due to the low enthusiasm of market procurement, gasoline and diesel prices fell again. At the beginning of the week, due to the impact of the continued sharp rise in international oil prices, MTBE manufacturers made a tentative small increase under the cost pressure. However, the gasoline market demand was not good, the gasoline shipment was general, and the upward trend of gasoline price was weak, but the demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE was low. Since the middle of the week, the market price of MTBE began to fall. Overall, the price of MTBE market rose first and then fell, with narrow range fluctuation.

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business agency, the international crude oil price is lack of action force, the gasoline market price will continue to decline under pressure, and the upward trend of MTBE market demand is difficult. It is expected that domestic MTBE prices will be stable in the short term.

Domestic cyclohexanone market rose sharply this week (11.9-11.13). According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the beginning of the week was 5866 yuan / ton, and the average price of cyclohexanone market at the weekend was 6255 yuan / ton, with the price rising 6.11% in the week, and the price rose 6.41% on a month-on-year basis, down 15.11% year on year. The main reason for the sharp increase of the market of cyclohexanone market is the combination of upstream and downstream benefits: within the week, the total price of pure benzene was increased by 250 yuan / T to 4000 yuan / ton in two times, with strong support in cost side. The downstream caprolactam Sinopec has been listed twice to RMB 700 / T to 10800 yuan / T, and the chemical fiber procurement atmosphere at the beginning of the

week is still acceptable. The downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and all parties actively push up, and the market low price quotation decreases 。 At present, the market supply and demand of cyclohexanone is balanced. Analysts of cyclohexanone, the business society, expect that the domestic market of cyclohexanone will be sorted out at a high level next week.

Regional price

6550-6650 yuan / ton in East China, cash delivered

RMB 6500-6700 / ton in South China, cash delivered

RMB 6350-6450 / ton in Shandong Province, cash delivered

Trend survey of ethylene glycol

Through market investigation, domestic glycol market has been surging and falling this week in case of large domestic supply pressure in the long term of main port going to the warehouse and strong and weak in the near future. According to the survey of participants in upstream, middle and lower reaches, although the far end pressure is relatively high, the diving market needs to be digested this week. About 43.33% of market participants hold neutral views on the market; domestic production is gradually reflected, some orders are cancelled, pressure on polyester end is gradually reflected, and demand deterioration is expected to be strong, with 36.67% of market participants pessimistic attitude towards the market; next week, they arrive in Hong Kong Less, the recent warehouse going will continue, and about 20% of market participants in the short term are optimistic about the market.

Commencement rate;

1、 Today, the ethylene glycol industry started: 60.24% (up 0.05%); non coal load 62.45% (stable); coal production 56.17% (up 0.13%); 2. The domestic polyester industry today has a stable starting rate of 87.74% (production base of 64.2 million tons / year); and the starting rate of downstream weaving industry is 82.44%.

Market overview;

The general election in the United States is basically settled, commodity market mentality has been restored. Today, the overall trend of glycol market is ahead of the trend. The overall price is slightly higher than the previous exchange. In terms of daily transaction, spot transactions are 3655-3680, and the base margin shrinks to around 30; the spot base difference is 20 next week, and the transaction is 3670-3680; the contract negotiation of the US dollar market is mainly based on the recent negotiations on ship and goods, which is 470-474 USD / ton.

Supply analysis;

Terminal inventory: as of Monday, the total inventory of MEG port in East China main port area was 1094400 tons, a decrease of 156 tons compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 56000 tons compared with last Thursday.

In detail, there are 654000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 162000 tons in Taicang, 110000 tons in Ningbo, 105000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, 63400 tons in Shanghai and Changshu. (11.5-11.8) the delivery of the wharf this week: Zhangjiagang delivers 7700-7750 tons per day; the comprehensive daily average delivery of 4800-4850 tons of Taicang and the total daily average delivery of Ningbo main port is around 5500 tons.

Device dynamics:

Unit aspect: a new unit of 600000 tons in Xinjiang is gradually increased at present; the production of superior products has been produced by PetroChina refining and chemical engineering, and the operating load is gradually increased; Rongxin chemical has a parking and maintenance plan in this month, which is expected to last for 20 days; and the construction of Shanxi Wao can be steadily increased.

Demand analysis:

At present, there is no new contradiction in the basic surface of ethylene glycol market. Short-term use of macro warming to drive price or repair with shock, but the new release of the supply end is not reduced, the flow of wharf to warehouse is hindered, and the supply and demand margin lacks new improvement points. In the later stage, it is difficult to form a sustained rebound trend.

Trade name: octanol

Latest price (November 9): 7483.33 yuan / ton

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose on November 9, 116.66 yuan / ton, or 1.58% higher than that on November 6. The upstream propylene market hit the bottom and rebounded, the cost support was good, and the downstream DOP market rose sharply, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good, and the octanol supply was normal.

Recently, the factory price of octanol in Shandong Province has fluctuated slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 7500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on November 2 was 563 yuan / ton, and that on November 6 was 568 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.89% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate rose slightly this week. Coking grade ammonium sulfate narrow adjustment, internal grade ammonium sulfate inventory is relatively tight. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 500-540 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 550-570 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Province is 450-490 yuan, and that of Northeast China is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches rose. Due to the rising price of compound fertilizer raw materials and good cost support, compound fertilizer market began to rise steadily. At present, the market atmosphere is good.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate rose slightly, domestic demand is stable, supply of goods is sufficient. The demand of ammonium sulfate in our company is limited. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will increase steadily in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will be stable in the finishing operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic LNG rose by 9.28% in September, and then rose again after the holiday. In the traditional peak season, the price continued to rise under the boost of demand. On October 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 3766.67 yuan / ton, up 43.22% compared with the beginning of the month and 14.12% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

October entered the peak season of the traditional market, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, the trading center shifted upward, the liquid price continued to rise throughout the month, and the prices of many places increased by more than 1000 yuan. At the beginning of the month, after the end of the double festival holiday, road transportation resumed to be unobstructed, downstream began to actively replenish, terminal demand increased, and LNG prices continued to rise. In the middle of the month, the northern cities entered the winter heating period, and the regional urban fuel and make-up depots were positive and the market mentality was optimistic. In addition, the price of raw gas was increased twice this month, which supported the continuous upward trend of LNG price. At the end of the month, the growth of domestic LNG market slowed down, and trading in some regions was slightly tired, such as Shanxi, Henan and other places’ quotation slightly callback. On October 30, PetroChina Western Branch’s raw material natural gas auction, the transaction price was about 1.68-1.7 yuan / m3, which was still expected. The industry had a strong wait-and-see mood. The liquid plant adjusted the price according to the shipment situation, but the overall market situation was still upward.

The temperature dropped sharply this month, and the domestic LNG market will rise every winter. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will rise every winter. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Northeast China and other regions are heating ahead of time. Urban fuel and replenishment are active. At the same time, the coal demand increases, the vehicle demand continues to improve, and the gas station sales volume significantly improves, and the overall market demand increases significantly. This month, Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy, Xinjiang Qinghua, etc. have planned maintenance enterprises. The operating rate has declined. In addition, Huanggang in Hubei Province and Rudong in Jiangsu Province have limited shipment. The supply in some areas is tight and the basic preference is strong, which supports the price strongly.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 30, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3790 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 3850 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Shanxi, the average price was around 3900 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 4250 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Ningxia, the average price was around 3920 yuan / ton, the price was rising, and the average price in Sichuan was 3820 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price rose; in October, prices rose sharply.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 30 to September 30

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 3790 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton: 1210 yuan

Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 3790 yuan / ton 2660 yuan / ton 1130 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day — 2580 yuan / ton–

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 3830 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 1180 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day, 3820 yuan / ton, 2720 yuan / ton, 1100 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 3630 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton: 1050 yuan

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3980 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 1280 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 3830 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 1180 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 3930 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 1530 yuan

Most downstream products showed an upward trend

The transaction price of methanol in Lubei market of Shandong Province is generally stable at 1720-1730 yuan / ton, and the transaction is general and stable temporarily. The methanol market in southern Shandong Province fell by 10-20 yuan / ton to 1820-1840 yuan / ton in spot exchange. Linyi received the local price of 1800-1820 yuan / ton and delivered it without tax. The transaction was improved. The quotation of logistics goods was 1770-1780 yuan / ton, and the transaction was general. The overall receiving of goods in the downstream is quite cautious. The methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1900 yuan / ton, while the transaction of peripheral goods is stable to 1710-1730 yuan / ton. The transaction is weak, and most contracts are executed.

Urea, in late October, the market price of urea in Shandong area may rise slightly. According to urea analysts of the business agency, the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise mainly. Next, it is necessary to wait for the final supply volume of India’s bidding.

Dichloromethane: at present, domestic dichloromethane is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards dichloromethane. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the negative pressure and reduce the pressure. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will remain stable in a short time.

Ethylene, current crude oil: the two sides of the Libya conflict signed a cease-fire agreement in Geneva on the same day. The market was more worried about crude oil demand, and the decline of crude oil could not form a support for the ethylene market. Therefore, data analysts of business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall below.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts of the business agency believe that: the market atmosphere is good in October, and the prices continue to push up strongly and forcefully. However, with the rising prices and the start-up of maintenance enterprises in the early stage, the supply is increasing, and the mentality of the downstream is a little tired, and the atmosphere of local transactions is weakening, and the rising trend is slowing down, and there are some callback phenomena. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise strongly and effectively in the short term In the past, the trend was upward, but the range was limited.