According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, while the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.89% and a month on month increase of 5.71%. The current price has decreased by 15.27% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market has declined this week, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The market price of potassium chloride on the cost side has stabilized, and downstream demand is average. The trading atmosphere in the potassium nitrate market is light, and prices have decreased. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5300-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated slightly: on September 22, the distribution price of potassium chloride by Zibo Dehe Chemical Co., Ltd. was around 3100 yuan/ton. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, and the market atmosphere is good. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently, the domestic supply of potassium chloride has been relatively concentrated, and the market is relatively stable. Downstream demand for procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11733 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11733 yuan/ton, indicating stable prices.

Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations remain stable, with the factory price of activated carbon for East China coconut shell water purification ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The majority of transactions are based on orders, and the downstream market has slightly improved, with a focus on market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is flat, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market is fluctuating and rising. From September 12th to 19th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3796 yuan/ton to 3901 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.77%, a month on month increase of 3.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%. The international crude oil price continues to rise, and the entire oil industry chain is highly affected by this. Spot resources in some regions are tightening, and major brand prices continue to rise, driving up local refining prices and driving up prices within the region. With the impact of precipitation and rainy weather in the northern region, as well as the rapid increase in asphalt prices that have reached high levels, the downstream market tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall increase in the asphalt market is not significant.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended production reduction deadline has led to supply tightening expectations and continued to ferment. Coupled with the US shale oil production not meeting expectations, positive supply has overshadowed demand concerns. As of the close on September 18th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $94.43 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.5%.

On the demand side, the demand in the asphalt market is relatively stable, with varying demand in different regions. Overall, there is a differentiation in demand, while the demand in the northern region is performing well, especially in the northwest, Inner Mongolia, and northeast regions, which are in a rush stage. The release of demand from downstream terminals is relatively concentrated; The southern region has been continuously affected by rainy weather recently, and the downstream construction process may be constrained by this. Operators are often cautious in purchasing according to demand, and the actual investment atmosphere is not good. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of September 19th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 was opened at 4020 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 4028 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3964 yuan/ton. It closed at 3970 yuan/ton in the end of the trading day, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.43%. The trading volume was 210467 lots, the holding volume was 286923 lots, and the daily increase was -13781.

In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will continue to be at a high level, and the cost of asphalt will be supported. However, the overall resource supply is relatively high, and spot resources are relatively abundant. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate at a high level.

According to data monitored by Business Society, domestic carbon black prices have risen this week. On September 18th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11333 yuan/ton

Cost side: This week, the upward pace of coal tar market prices has slowed down, with high and fluctuating operations being the main focus. In most regions, prices have narrowed and consolidated. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar market is 4990 yuan/ton. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises have strong quotations, and the coal tar market is operating at a high level, providing strong support for carbon black cost side.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and recently, there have been carbon black manufacturers in Shandong and Shanxi stopping or reducing production. Currently, the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, with smoother tire shipments compared to the previous period. Terminal enterprises have low carbon black inventory, and on-site inquiries are more positive. From a demand perspective, with strong support from export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level recently. The strong demand in the tire industry has provided strong support for the upward trend of carbon black, but the current high price of carbon black is running, and downstream enterprises have some resistance to high price carbon black supply, Maintain on-demand purchasing when entering the market to obtain more goods.

Overall, there are both positive and negative factors in the current market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will maintain a high level of operation, with a stronger consolidation operation. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from September 8th to 15th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9971 yuan/ton to 10150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% during the cycle, with a month on month increase of 5.42% and a year-on-year increase of 4.00%. The raw material pure benzene continues to rise, with strong cost support. Some companies unexpectedly stopped their cars, resulting in a decrease in the supply of cyclohexanone products. The market was reluctant to sell due to market restrictions, resulting in another increase in prices and a decrease in low prices.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has seen a significant increase in the price of domestic pure benzene. Crude oil and styrene continued to perform strongly, with the price of pure benzene rapidly rising; The main production enterprise, Sinopec Pure Benzene, has raised its listing multiple times to 8800 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. Supported by strong costs, the market price of caprolactam has continued to rise significantly. Currently, the cost of caprolactam is high, and there is still a partial reduction in the supply of caprolactam. The supply is tight, and the market price continues to rise. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, with support from costs and supply, analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyformaldehyde in Shandong have been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5487.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, a month on month decrease of 0.23%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.23%.

Upstream methanol situation: Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market continues to decline. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected. The cost is relatively weak, and netizens have broken through in pre holiday stocking in terms of supply and demand. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream demand for procurement has been maintained, and polyformaldehyde manufacturers are actively shipping. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business company predict that prices may decline slightly.

Last week (September 4-10, 2023), the prices of raw materials such as pulp and acid alkali generally increased, and the cost of viscose staple fibers was strongly pushed up. Last week, manufacturers introduced a new round of prices, and the overall price center took another step up. Some manufacturers had limited inventory and partial restrictions on order signing, and shipments were slightly tight. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, and the overall industry load has risen to around 79%. Under the support of downstream human cotton yarn costs, prices have been firm, and some negotiations have been conducted to reduce discounts and offer higher prices. However, the current increase in grey fabric is slightly weak, and transmission takes time. The sales of ring spun human cotton yarn have not improved significantly, and vortex spinning is relatively good. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, last week (September 4-10, 2023), the price of viscose staple fiber slightly increased. As of September 10, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13340 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.30%.

In terms of cost: The prices of raw materials such as pulp and acid alkali have generally increased. Manufacturers in Hunan and Shandong produce broad-leaved dissolved pulp, and the quotation for domestic dissolved pulp has been raised to around 7300-7400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. A new round of imported dissolved pulp quotations has been introduced, with Brazil’s LDC and South Africa’s broadleaf dissolved pulp costing 870 US dollars per ton, Czech needle dissolved pulp costing 880 US dollars per ton, and Austria’s needle dissolved pulp costing 890 US dollars per ton, an increase of 30 US dollars per ton compared to before.

Supply demand: Recently, there has been a slight increase in the start-up rate of the viscose staple fiber industry. Currently, the overall load of the industry has risen to around 79%, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high. Some manufacturers have limited inventory and local restrictions on order signing, and shipments are slightly tight. The sales of ring spun human cotton yarn have not shown much improvement, while vortex spinning is relatively good. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Chart of the price trend of human cotton yarn

Last week (September 4-10, 2023), under cost support, the price of artificial cotton yarn was strong, and some negotiated discounts were reduced. However, the current increase in grey fabric is slightly weak, and transmission will take time. As of September 10th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The start-up rate of the human cotton yarn industry has remained stable at around 70%.

Future Market Forecast

The golden nine silver ten peak season has arrived, and the market is looking forward to the traditional textile peak season. At present, the inventory of viscose staple fiber industry is at a medium to low level, which is expected to provide a strong impetus for the price increase of viscose staple fiber. Analysts from Business Society predict that in the short term, the overall market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be stronger, with prices slightly increasing.

In the past week, the domestic PTA spot market price has slightly strengthened, with an average PTA market price of 6204 yuan/ton in East China as of September 11, an increase of 0.49% compared to September 5. PTA construction still maintains a high level of over 80%, with ample liquidity in the spot market. Recently, some factory installations have experienced load shedding or short shutdowns.

Thanks to expectations of supply tightening in Saudi Arabia and Russia extending production cuts, recent oil prices have been operating at high levels. As of September 11th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was at $87.29 per barrel, while the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $90.64 per barrel.

In terms of PX, the market negotiation atmosphere has improved. The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, and the supply is normal, but maintenance of overseas devices is planned. At the same time, there is strong support on the cost side, driving up PX prices. As of September 11th, the domestic PX factory price was 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20% compared to early September.

PTA suppliers ship normally, while intermediaries and polyester maintain their demand. As the market enters the “Golden Nine” consumption peak season, terminal orders in the textile industry have rebounded, and the operating rate of polyester factories remains at a high level of nearly 90%. Although the sales situation is good, the current peak season demand is gradually releasing, and it is difficult for terminal demand to further increase.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the crude oil volatility is relatively strong, and the cost side support is still acceptable. The PTA maintenance device is experiencing short shutdowns and the demand is gradually fulfilling during the peak season, and it is expected that the short-term PTA price will maintain a fluctuating and rising pattern.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3350.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 9.46% year-on-year. On September 10th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 87.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 58.17% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream orchid charcoal market slightly rose, while the downstream PVC market prices fluctuated and rose. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1100-1230 yuan/ton, and the price has increased by about 100 yuan/ton, increasing cost support. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly this week, rising from 6254.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6376.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.95%. Weekend prices fell by 1.97% year-on-year. The PVC market price continues to rise, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In mid to late September, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream PVC market continues to rise, and downstream demand is good. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will rise in a narrow range in mid to late September, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3980 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week at 3980 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices is stable. Recently, the supply of goods on the site has been normal, and downstream procurement has been normal. The situation of goods on the site is average, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizers has been average, and the procurement in the domestic downstream civilian explosive industry is normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is between 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is between 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China has increased. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.06% compared to the price of 2050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market has not changed much, and the cost trend has increased. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market trading volume has improved. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the prices of nitric acid on the market have risen, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.48% compared to the price of 3600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has risen, mainly due to a decrease in supply in the main production areas, and some units are still in shutdown, resulting in a decline in supply. Prices of large factories in Shandong, Hubei, Hebei, and other regions have increased. On the demand side, the current agricultural demand is moderate, with stable domestic and export demand for compound fertilizers and reduced inventory from manufacturers, which provides a certain positive support for the liquid ammonia market. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3800-3900 yuan/ton. The rise in upstream liquid ammonia prices has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of the ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand situation in the downstream civilian explosive industry has been normal, with a slight increase in demand for nitro compound fertilizers. The price trend of upstream nitric acid has increased, coupled with the rising price of liquid ammonia. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is relatively normal, and ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term.