According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market will fluctuate upward in January 2026. From January 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price increased from 5510 yuan/ton to 5710 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 3.63% during the period.

This month, the domestic mixed xylene market has shown a periodic fluctuation and upward trend. At the beginning of the month, driven by the stabilization and recovery of the crude oil market and strong fluctuations in PX futures, the market’s attitude towards offering was relatively warm. Refineries in core production areas in Shandong shipped smoothly, and the markets in East and South China followed suit, with main refinery prices steadily increasing and the market negotiation atmosphere active; Although PX futures experienced a short-term correction in the middle of the month, triggering a slight wait-and-see attitude in the market and causing some fluctuations in price trends, there is still support on the cost side of crude oil, and refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices, so prices have not shown a significant decline; At the end of the month, with the recovery of the refining industry’s prosperity, coupled with the upward trend of international market prices, the trading atmosphere in the domestic market has once again heated up. Manufacturers’ quotations continue to rise, and prices in various markets have risen synchronously, pushing prices to reach a new high for the month. The purchasing mentality of downstream oil and chemical industries has improved compared to last month. Although on-demand procurement is still the main focus, the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory has increased, and the phased stocking behavior has provided practical support for the upward trend of market prices.
On the cost side: The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened a strong upward trend, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.37 per barrel.
Supply side:
In January, the overall operation of domestic mixed xylene production enterprises was stable, and the main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical started working normally. The production and sales connection was smooth, and the overall supply of goods in the industry was abundant. The quotations of refineries in various regions under Sinopec have generally increased compared to last month, and the shipment situation of refineries in the core production areas of Shandong is good, providing stable support for the upward trend of regional market prices. This month, there was no significant maintenance or load reduction in the domestic mixed xylene market supply side, and the production pace of enterprises was stable. Although the quotation continued to increase, the pressure on manufacturers to ship was relatively small, and the mentality of raising prices was firm, supporting the steady rise of market prices.
Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 30th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5400-5600 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5400-5700 yuan/ton.

Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price will be uniformly implemented in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China; The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal product sales, and the current price has increased by 300 yuan/ton compared to December 30th.
In terms of international markets, as of January 28th, the closing prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region were 898-900 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 923-925 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton from the end of last month. The strengthening of the PX market has boosted the overall atmosphere of the domestic aromatic hydrocarbon sector, and the PX futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen synchronously. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 7392 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan/ton from the end of last month, forming a positive driving force for the toluene market.
The domestic oil blending and chemical industry has shown a trend of strong demand followed by weak demand this month. In the first half of the month, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries such as coatings, dyes, and pharmaceutical intermediates have started pre holiday restocking, resulting in a marginal increase in procurement volume and becoming an important driving force for price increases; However, after the completion of the phased replenishment in the middle and late stages, downstream industries returned to the on-demand procurement strategy and did not engage in secondary centralized replenishment behavior. The oil adjustment side maintained rigid demand procurement, which had limited further driving effect on prices. The market trading atmosphere at the end of the month weakened, becoming the main reason for the slight price correction. Overall, although there was no significant increase in demand this month, the temporary support formed by pre holiday replenishment still provided strong impetus for the rise in toluene prices.
Market forecast:
The current domestic mixed xylene market is dominated by favorable factors, and there are obvious advantages in the long short game. On the one hand, after the stabilization and recovery of the crude oil market, cost support continues to strengthen, and the transmission effect of the PX market’s volatile upward trend is still present. In addition, the stable operation of domestic supply side equipment and the firm willingness of manufacturers to raise prices provide basic support for the market; On the other hand, the prosperity of the refining industry has rebounded, and the trend of marginal improvement in downstream demand is expected to continue. Coupled with the external driving force of rising international market prices, market sentiment is relatively warm. Overall, the mixed xylene market still has upward momentum in the short term and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern. It is necessary to focus on the trend of the crude oil market, the fluctuation of PX futures prices, and the follow-up of downstream actual demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 30th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market demand is weak, downstream market demand is insufficient, and the overall market is fluctuating at a low level, lacking favorable support.
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: The DMF market is mainly operating steadily, with oversupply leading to price pressure, equipment maintenance, high industry concentration, and some manufacturers reducing production due to environmental policies or equipment issues, resulting in temporary supply shortages.
Regarding methanol: In the upstream methanol market, traditional downstream demand (such as MTO) is weak, and emerging demand (such as fuel) is still being cultivated, resulting in high inventory and price pressure. Price trend: Prices will fluctuate downward in 2025, with the average spot price at the end of the year falling by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with insufficient downstream demand and narrow price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 19th to 23rd (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2218 yuan/ton to around 2283 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.93% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 6.16%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.18%. The port methanol market is experiencing a volatile consolidation trend due to factors such as high port methanol inventory, weak downstream demand, expected import inventory reduction, and macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations.

As of the close on January 23rd, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2251 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2303 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2246 yuan/ton. It closed at 2298 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, up 66 yuan/ton or 2.96% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1349180, the position is 806994, and the daily increase is -10177.
On the cost side, the enthusiasm for coal procurement is weak, and coal prices are under pressure to decline, which weakens the support for methanol costs. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, the demand for port olefins has decreased, and inventory has been reduced, but the demand on the table is weak, which directly leads to price pressure. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on January 22, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 94.5-95.5 cents/gallon, up 3 cents/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 269.5-270.5 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, there will be abundant spot supply, high inventory in the middle and downstream links, and negative factors such as seasonal off-season demand still exist. Before the holiday, companies will actively reduce prices to reduce inventory, and the market will continue to bottom out. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience consolidation and volatility.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has recently experienced a roller coaster like market trend. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate has skyrocketed from 119400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 162000 yuan/ton on January 14th, setting a 35.7% increase in just half a month, and then fell to 147000 yuan/ton on January 19th, a decrease of 9.26%.
Core drivers of skyrocketing: policy dividend pre positioning+supply disturbance+concentrated release of demand
The adjustment of battery export tax rebates has given rise to a wave of “export rush”, leading to a short-term concentrated outbreak of demand

On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice clarifying that the value-added tax export rebate rate for battery products will be gradually reduced: from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027. This policy adjustment has reserved a clear policy dividend window for the industrial chain, directly triggering the “export rush” behavior between overseas customers and domestic battery companies – the market generally expects that overseas customers will place orders in the first quarter to lock in the current 9% high tax rebate dividend, while domestic battery factories need to increase production to meet the surge in export orders.
The transmission effect on the demand side is rapidly emerging: downstream lithium iron phosphate cathode material companies originally planned to reduce production and undergo maintenance for one month during the Spring Festival, but were forced to cancel their plans and accelerate production resumption to match the production schedule of battery factories. They even expected to maintain full load production in the first quarter; Most companies in the industry have a lithium carbonate inventory cycle of only about 10 days. In order to ensure production, they have to increase their spot procurement efforts, forming a chain reaction of “grabbing exports, expanding production, and grabbing raw materials”, directly driving the concentrated release of short-term demand for lithium carbonate and becoming the core engine driving price surges.
Expectations of tight supply and demand
At the same time as the concentrated demand erupts, frequent disturbances occur on the supply side, further strengthening the market’s expectation of a supply-demand gap. The requirement in the “Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Solid Waste” that “mineral processing projects without self built mines and supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities will no longer be approved in principle” has raised concerns in the market about the resumption of production and subsequent treatment of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi (such as Ningde Times Jianxiawo Mine), and the release of some lithium salt production capacity is limited; The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories has also been adjusted accordingly, and the delivery of long-term contract orders has shrunk. Some companies have chosen to hold back and wait, further tightening the supply in the spot market.
Low inventory amplifies upward momentum
As of early January 2026, the social inventory days of lithium carbonate in China have fallen from 44 days in the first half of 2025 to 26 days, which is at a relatively low level; Downstream enterprises’ raw material inventory continues to decrease, and the sense of urgency in procurement has significantly increased. Although the inventory of traders has increased, they are mostly in a locked state and difficult to circulate to the market, further exacerbating the “tight goods” atmosphere in the spot market.
Sudden decline key turning point: Demand falls short of expectations+speculative sentiment recedes

Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and core demand support weakened
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January 1st to 11th, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China were only 117000 units, a year-on-year drop of 38% and a month on month drop of 67%, significantly lower than the market’s previous expectation of a 15% -20% year-on-year growth rate. The significant decline in sales of new energy vehicles has directly shaken the market’s confidence in the growth of demand for power batteries, leading to concerns about the long-term demand for lithium carbonate and becoming the core reason for the price correction.
Money sentiment recedes, short-term speculation logic ends
In the early stage of the rise in lithium carbonate prices, there was a strong atmosphere of financial competition, and the trading volume and holdings in the futures market significantly increased. But as prices hit high levels, coupled with negative news that new energy vehicle sales fell short of expectations, market sentiment quickly shifted and a large amount of bullish funds began to withdraw. Data shows that on January 16th, the position of the main futures contract decreased by 27800 lots, and from early December 2025 to January 16th, 2026, the total position has plummeted from 1.08 million lots to 826000 lots. The concentrated withdrawal of funds directly exacerbated the decline in prices, becoming an “amplifier” for short-term fluctuations.
The lithium carbonate data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the recent roller coaster market of lithium carbonate is the result of short-term demand distortion caused by policy adjustments, expected strengthening caused by supply side disturbances, and the combined effect of financial sentiment and ebb tide. In the short term, before the implementation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand for “grabbing exports” will still provide some support for prices, and lithium prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the medium to long term, the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate may become tight by 2026, and the central operation of lithium prices is expected to rise. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 723 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 694 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.72%. On January 15th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 780 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 44.29% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 30.43% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 640-720 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 740-820 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2100-2200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, the supply of caustic soda is still in a loose state, and there is no obvious destocking by enterprises. The enthusiasm for downstream alumina entering the market recently is average, and the inventory of enterprises is relatively sufficient. The market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand. There will be no positive support for the Shandong market next week, and demand has not substantially improved. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak and consolidated operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 4th to 9th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2245 yuan/ton to around 2265 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.93% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 8.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.27%. Driven by the expected reduction in imports and the unstable international situation, the port methanol market is mainly strengthening. Supported by rising port prices, increased olefin extraction, and downstream post holiday replenishment, prices in many parts of the domestic methanol market have risen.

As of the close on January 9th, 2026, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2238 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2276 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2211 yuan/ton. It closed at 2273 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 30 yuan or 1.34% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 1553611, the position is 812955, and the daily increase is 57244.
On the cost side, the slow release of coal replenishment demand will suppress the rebound of coal prices and provide limited support for methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the demand for olefins in mainland China is relatively stable, while consumption in traditional sectors has declined, resulting in a widening gap between market supply and demand. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
Supply side, Inner Mongolia equipment maintenance; Restoration of Zhongyuan equipment; The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in production. However, due to a decrease in the effective production capacity base, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased month on month. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on January 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 87.5-88.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the methanol market is expected to experience a significant reduction in import expectations and a significant contraction in supply, which is expected to drive down inventory. The market may shift towards a tight balance pattern, with upward support for prices. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is expected to rise again.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic butadiene market at the beginning of 2025 is 10800 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year is 8333.33 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 22.84%. The butadiene market will show a trend of “first rising and then falling, fluctuating and weakening” in 2025, which can be divided into two stages throughout the year. In the first half of the year, it will rise first and then fall, and in the second half, it will fluctuate and decline.

From the monthly K-bar chart of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the butadiene market will experience more declines and less increases in 2025, with 5 months of upward movement and 7 months of downward movement. The highest increase was 19.33% in December and the highest decrease was 17.58% in April.
1、 Review of Butadiene Market in 2025
In the first half of the year, policies combined with supply initially increased and then decreased, resulting in an overall decline
In the first half of 2025, the butadiene market was greatly disturbed by short-term factors, and the core logic of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. Price fluctuations were dependent on equipment maintenance, policies, etc., and the overall trend first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend.
January to April: Loose supply and demand dominate, prices fluctuate downward
The loose supply and demand led to a continuous decline in prices from January to April. On the supply side, Wanhua Phase II and ExxonMobil have gradually released a total of 400000 tons of new production capacity, bringing the industry’s total production capacity to 7.037 million tons. The import volume in January and February increased significantly year-on-year, and the inventory in East China ports remained high. The operating rate of the facilities remained stable at around 75%, indicating abundant supply. The demand side is disturbed by tariffs from China and the United States, putting pressure on the production of synthetic rubber and tire industries, and the ABS industry has high inventory, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. The price dropped from 10800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 9200 yuan/ton at the end of April, reaching a phase low in the first half of the year.
May: Supply contraction combined with favorable policies led to a significant increase in prices
In May, the market reversed and prices quickly surged before oscillating. Driven by the supply side as the core, Hengli’s 140000 ton and Maoming Petrochemical’s 50000 ton units underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant impact on production capacity. The inventory in East China ports dropped to a low level, and traders were reluctant to sell at high prices. Sinopec’s quotation was raised to 11100 yuan/ton. The demand side was boosted by the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, and synthetic rubber futures rose. The production rate of butadiene rubber increased to 74.7%, and downstream demand for replenishment was released, with a maximum monthly increase of over 22%.
June: Fundamentals are bearish, prices fluctuate and fall back
The heat subsided in June, and prices fluctuated and stabilized. The supply side maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, the supply of imported goods has increased, the inventory of East China ports has slightly increased, and the market has returned to loose. The high inventory of synthetic rubber on the demand side is highlighted, and the price of butadiene is weakening. Downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials, and trading is sluggish
Second half of the year: Oversupply is the core contradiction, down 7.41%
July September: Supply surplus intensifies, prices continue to decline
The supply-demand contradiction in the market became prominent from July to September, and prices steadily declined. On the supply side, the refinery maintenance season has ended, and the operating rate of the equipment has rebounded to over 65%. The ExxonMobil Huizhou project is operating at full capacity, and coupled with the influx of 140000 tons of equipment from Lotte Chemical Indonesia into Asia, the supply pressure continues to increase. The import arbitrage window has opened, with European and American goods concentrated at ports, further exacerbating inventory pressure. On the demand side, the tire industry has a low operating rate, high inventory of synthetic rubber, and downstream only maintains rigid demand procurement. The price dropped from 8840 yuan/ton at the beginning of July to 7200 yuan/ton at the end of September, hitting a new low for the year.

October November: Weak supply-demand balance, market fluctuations within a certain range
The market entered a weak equilibrium state from October to November, with prices fluctuating narrowly. On the supply side, some equipment maintenance resulted in a slight decrease in production, and after the restart of Fushun Petrochemical and other equipment, the load was low. The inventory of East China ports was temporarily reduced to 24600 tons, easing some pressure. However, there are still expectations for imported cargo to arrive at the port, and the pattern of loose supply has not changed. On the demand side, the operating rate of the tire industry has rebounded to normal levels, and the trend of synthetic rubber futures is strong, providing temporary support for butadiene. The price fluctuates within the range of 7000-7500 yuan/ton, and trading is mainly based on low prices.
December: Short term positive news boosts, prices fluctuate and rebound
The market sentiment rebounded in December, with prices fluctuating upwards. On the supply side, Dongming Petrochemical’s equipment was temporarily shut down for maintenance and reduced supply. Mainstream enterprises raised their prices, and Sinopec’s listed price rose to 8300 yuan/ton, increasing the willingness of traders to raise prices. On the demand side, the combined rise of synthetic rubber futures and spot prices has led to a 4.03% increase in the price of butadiene rubber, which has improved the demand for raw material procurement. At the end of the month, the price rose to 8012.5 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 13.85%, boosted by the rise in foreign markets. However, high priced transactions have encountered obstacles, and weak terminal demand has constrained gains, resulting in a volatile consolidation trend in the market.
2、 Market outlook for butadiene in 2026:
Cost side: Low oil price oscillation in 2026, weak support for cost side
The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East and other contradictions continue to ferment, which will have a direct impact on oil prices from time to time, triggering periodic fluctuations, but it is difficult to change the long-term trend. The pattern of oversupply on the supply side will continue until the first half of 2026. The IEA predicts that the global average daily surplus of oil will reach 4.09 million barrels, and shale oil in the United States is expected to increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day, leading the increment; Although OPEC+plans to suspend production in the first quarter of 2026, internal disagreements and insufficient idle capacity have limited regulatory effects, and the price center is likely to continue to shift downwards. Affected by the supply-demand game, geopolitical conflicts, and OPEC+policy regulation, Shengyi Society predicts that the overall crude oil market will show a “low-level oscillation” trend in 2026.
Supply side: Expected increase
The increase in butadiene production capacity in 2026 will be significantly reduced compared to 2025, and the industry will enter a period of capacity digestion. Affected by the promotion of the large-scale ethylene project in the early stage, it is expected to add about 500000 tons of production capacity for the whole year, which is significantly lower than the increase of 1.2 million tons in 2025. The total production capacity at the end of the year is expected to exceed 8.4 million tons. The newly added production capacity is mostly for integrated refining and chemical supporting facilities, concentrated in the East and South China regions. The stability of facility operation is strong, and it is expected that the annual industry operation rate will remain in the range of 68% -72%.

According to customs data statistics, the cumulative import volume of butadiene from January to November 2025 reached 449700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of over 50%. Among them, the monthly import volume in November was 56000 tons, with a net import volume of 56200 tons, a month on month increase of 69.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.14%, mainly due to the lack of exports in the month and a significant increase in import volume. The import pattern will tend to stabilize in 2026. With the release of domestic production capacity, the frequency of opening import arbitrage windows will decrease. It is expected that the annual import volume will remain at 450000-500000 tons, mainly to supplement the gap in high-end supply. At the same time, the maintenance of overseas facilities and the recovery of demand in the Asian market will constrain the impact of imported goods on the domestic market, and the pressure on the supply side will ease compared to 2025.
Demand side: Stable with upward trend
In the consumer sector, the core raw material for synthetic rubber is butadiene, and synthetic rubber produced from butadiene accounts for over 80% of the total production of synthetic rubber. Therefore, from the perspective of consumption structure, both butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber account for 30% of butadiene consumption, ABS accounts for 12% of butadiene consumption, latex and SBC account for 9% of butadiene consumption, and nitrile rubber accounts for 5%. In 2026, it is expected that the new production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber will reach 450000 tons and 405000 tons respectively. Among them, the proportion of high-performance rubber such as solution polymerized butadiene rubber and rare earth butadiene rubber will increase, and the demand for new energy vehicle tires will grow, driving the steady release of butadiene demand. The ABS industry is expected to increase its capacity utilization rate and further supplement the demand for butadiene, as the demand for intelligent home appliances and lightweight automobiles upgrades.
Market forecast:
In the short term, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in January, there is generally a demand for pre holiday stocking in the downstream market. At the end of December, the butadiene market has already experienced a wave of upward trend, boosted by tight supply. Under the influence of downstream demand after January, it is expected that there is still some upward space.
In the long run, the market supply and demand pattern is shifting towards looseness, and prices are showing a trend of “downward oscillation and downward shift of focus”. The 620000 tons of new production capacity on the supply side throughout the year were mostly released in the fourth quarter. Although some units were delayed in production, it affected actual output. However, with the addition of 450000-500000 tons of imports throughout the year, the total supply will reach 6.18 million tons, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. As a result, the butadiene market has limited room for further growth, but downstream demand is still supported. It is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a high volatility trend, and the focus will be on the operation of the downstream synthetic rubber market in the future.

In 2025, the epoxy resin industry will be in a critical period of transformation characterized by both structural surplus and high-end shortage. On the one hand, the overcapacity of general-purpose products will intensify market competition, and the overall operating rate of the industry will hover at a low level; On the other hand, driven by emerging industries such as new energy, electronic information, and high-end manufacturing, the demand for high-end specialty epoxy resins continues to grow, accelerating the industry’s transformation towards high-end and green products.

1、 Key events in the epoxy resin industry in 2025
On April 30th, the US International Trade Commission made a negative final ruling on the double industry injury of epoxy resin imported from China. It is determined that the products involved in the case will not cause substantial damage to the domestic industry in the United States. The US Department of Commerce will not issue anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese products involved in the case, clearing obstacles for China’s epoxy resin exports to the US market.
On May 7th, Hongchang Electronics announced that the “Zhuhai Phase II Annual Production of 140000 Tons of Liquid Epoxy Resin Project” has officially started production. After the project is put into operation, the company’s liquid epoxy resin production capacity has significantly increased, and the unit cost has decreased by 15%, further consolidating its market competitiveness in the electronic and electrical field.
On July 28th, Sinochem International released a restructuring plan, intending to issue shares to acquire 100% equity of Nantong. Nantong’s core business covers epoxy resin and engineering plastics, with a full industry chain layout. This acquisition will strengthen the competitiveness of Sinochem International’s epoxy resin industry chain, achieve collaborative integration of raw materials, products, and applications, and help promote the localization process of high-end materials.
On August 1st, DIC Corporation announced the construction of a new epoxy resin production facility at its Chiba factory in Japan. This project has been recognized by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s “Stable Supply Guarantee Plan” and has a maximum subsidy of 3 billion yen. It focuses on meeting the demand for high-performance epoxy resin in the semiconductor industry and will introduce new processes to improve production efficiency and product quality.
Throughout the year, the structural overcapacity pattern in the industry intensified, and the utilization rate of production capacity remained low. By 2025, the total production capacity of epoxy resin in China is expected to exceed 4 million tons, and the market size is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan. However, the overall operating rate of the industry is only 51.44%, of which the operating rate of solid resin is less than 40%; The production capacity in East China accounts for 52% of the national total, with a low operating rate of 70%, and the survival space of small and medium-sized manufacturers continues to be squeezed.
Throughout the year – concentrated release of new production capacity, cost advantage enterprises dominate competition. By 2025, the industry will increase its production capacity by 720000 tons per year, mainly focused on integrated bisphenol A projects, squeezing small and medium-sized manufacturers with cost advantages; Guangdong, Shandong and other regions plan to add 390000 tons of production capacity, further increasing regional concentration of production capacity. It is expected that the industry CR5 for the whole year will reach 58%.
Throughout the year, demand in the high-end market grew against the trend. In the field of electronic information, the market size of China’s electronic grade epoxy resin has exceeded 18 billion yuan; In the field of new energy, wind power and new energy vehicles have a strong demand for special epoxy resin. It is estimated that the future construction of the the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project will consume 300000 to 500000 tons of epoxy resin.

On December 23rd, Hongchang Electronics released its action plan of “improving quality, increasing efficiency, and emphasizing returns”, disclosing multiple production capacity layout plans. The company is building the “Zhuhai Hongchang Phase III Annual Production of 80000 Tons of Electronic Grade Functional Epoxy Resin Project” and the “Zhuhai Hongren Functional High end Copper Clad Coating Electronic Materials Project”, which will further expand high-end product production capacity and improve the layout of the electronic industry chain.
2、 Forecast for the Development of Epoxy Resin Industry in 2026
At the policy level, we will continue to focus on high-end substitution and green transformation, and support the synergy of the industrial chain. It is expected that the relevant supporting policies of the “Three Year Action Plan for Innovative Development of New Materials Industry (2024-2026)” will be further implemented in 2026, providing research and development subsidies and market promotion support for key material localization projects such as electronic grade epoxy resin and high-end polyphenylene ether.
2. Production capacity pattern: Concentration continues to increase, and structural overcapacity is gradually easing – it is expected that the growth rate of new production capacity in the industry will slow down in 2026, and the annual new production capacity may be controlled within 500000 tons, mainly concentrated in integrated projects of top enterprises. With the gradual withdrawal of small and medium high cost production capacity, the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to increase to around 60%, and the structural surplus contradiction will be somewhat alleviated. The East China region will continue to maintain its position as a core production area, while the central and western regions, with policy support and industrial chain matching, are expected to maintain a production capacity growth rate of around 12% and become new growth poles.
3. Export market: Opportunities and challenges coexist, diversified layout becomes a trend – benefiting from the positive impact of the US anti-dumping and countervailing measures, exports of epoxy resin to the US are expected to steadily increase. But at the same time, global trade protectionism still exists. Enterprises will speed up diversified export layout, expand countries along the “the Belt and Road” and emerging markets, and reduce the risk of dependence on a single market.
Summary: In 2025, under policy guidance and market drive, the epoxy resin industry will accelerate the transformation towards high-end and green products, and the demand in the high-end field will become an important support for the industry’s development. In 2026, the industry will enter a critical stage of structural optimization, with high-end, centralized, and green development becoming the core development directions. The industry as a whole is expected to move towards a new stage of high-quality development.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic toluene market experienced a slight rebound after a volatile downward trend in December 2025, indicating a weak overall trend. From December 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fluctuated from 5330 yuan/ton to 5160 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 3.19% during the period. The overall operating range was lower than November, mainly affected by the weak supply and demand and insufficient cost support.

In the first half of the month, the domestic toluene market began a volatile downward trend. As a core production area, Shandong’s main refineries were the first to lower their prices. On the 16th, the mainstream local price range fell to 5020-5050 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; The East China region is weakening synchronously, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious, lacking substantial positive factors to boost, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards.
Late period: The market fluctuated within a certain range, with prices in East and South China temporarily increasing. However, weak terminal demand constrained the rebound space, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in the market remained unchanged. Refineries actively shipped and controlled inventory, but downstream responses were flat, maintaining overall weak stability and volatility.
Cost wise: In December 2025, the domestic crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, with narrow fluctuations in the first half of the year. The news of OPEC’s slight increase in production in December and the suspension of production in the first quarter of 2026 briefly boosted market sentiment, but failed to reverse the loose pattern. Domestic port commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.67% month on month, and supply pressure began to emerge. After mid month, concerns about global crude oil oversupply intensified, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel, driving the domestic market to follow suit. Although geopolitical events such as the escalation of US sanctions on Venezuela triggered a short-term rebound during this period, it was difficult to change the trend. As the end of the year approaches in the latter half of the year, market trading activity has decreased under the pressure of capital recovery. The operating rate of domestic main refineries is sluggish, and the weak trend of terminal demand has not changed, further suppressing oil prices and presenting a fundamental driven downward trend throughout the process. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.08 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $61.94 per barrel, an increase of $1.30 or 2.1%.
Demand side: Downstream on-demand procurement shows overall weakness
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, Sinopec Sales Company has implemented a price of 7000 yuan/ton, and the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China have uniformly implemented this price; The main facilities of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, and the sales of products are normal. The current price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to November 28th.
In terms of international markets, as of December 29th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $867-869/ton FOB Korea and $892-894/ton CFR China, an increase of $66/ton from November 27th.
The domestic oil and chemical industry continues to adopt the strategy of replenishing inventory according to demand, with low purchasing enthusiasm and no centralized replenishment behavior, which has limited effect on driving prices. The xylene (PX) market has become the main bearish factor, with significant fluctuations in the December contract price of PX in Zhengzhou commodity trading in the latter half of the year. The closing price on the 29th was 7208 yuan/ton, which fell from the mid month high, and the mixed xylene price was under pressure and weakened due to cost transmission.

Market forecast: Currently, the domestic toluene market is in a weak balance of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the rebound in international crude oil prices provides some cost support, limiting the downward space for toluene; On the other hand, the off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term, resulting in a lack of substantial market benefits. Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile operating pattern in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil prices and the improvement of downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has seen a slight increase this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6636 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6688 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.78%.

News: On December 24th, international crude oil futures remained stable. The settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.35 per barrel, a decrease of $0.03 or 0.05%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $62.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.12 or 0.2%.
Cost wise: The market for raw material pure benzene has slightly increased. From the fundamental perspective of pure benzene, the high inventory in the main port is difficult to reduce, which has dragged down the market mentality. However, the export of styrene has increased, and the market mentality has slightly improved. The United States has intensified its crackdown on oil tankers in a certain country in South America, causing a surge in international oil prices, which may provide some support for the current market.
Supply and demand side: With the restart of some maintenance devices, there is an increase in supply. The price of styrene has risen, downstream losses have intensified, and resistance to high priced raw materials has increased. Downstream follow-up efforts have been made, and EPS industry production has declined. ABS/PS losses have expanded, and procurement follow-up has been cautious.
Styrene external market: On December 25th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by 7.5 US dollars/ton, with a closing price of 825-830 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 835-840 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The recent performance of the styrene export market is good, which will boost the market. However, due to the increase in supply and port arrivals, it is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.