1、 Price trend

 

PVA

According to the data of business agency, on September 25, the average price of domestic LNG was 2420 yuan / ton, up 1.68% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.55% higher than the beginning of the month, 0.68% lower on a month on month basis, and 13.98% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose steadily, but the range was not large. This week, the northwest region rose significantly, Shanxi, Sichuan and other places liquid prices declined, other regions sold at a stable price. At present, the off-season factors are weakened, the terminal demand is improved, the downstream replenishment before the festival is increased, the purchase heat is increased, the market trading atmosphere is improved, the liquid factory shipment is smooth, and the market gradually recovers its vitality. However, the maintenance season is coming to an end, and the maintenance enterprises in the early stage are returning to work and sales. The on-site supply is abundant, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth. The inventory is on the high side, and the liquid price is down. The overall market is in a situation of rising and falling. In terms of receiving stations, stability is mainly maintained, with sporadic small increases. Overall, domestic LNG market demand rebounded and the market gradually turned better.

 

There are eight days of holiday this year. During this period, logistics is not smooth. The downstream replenishment before the festival is more active. The liquid factory has no previous sales reduction before the festival. The manufacturer’s mentality is relatively peaceful. Moreover, the temperature drops. The demand for urban fuel and vehicles is good. Some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have enough confidence in raising prices. This week, Hubei Huanggang and other liquid factories have started to sell. The operating rate is slightly higher than that of last week, but the change is not much. The market supply is abundant, which hinders the shipment in some regions. However, there is no prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the market is relatively stable.

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 25, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 2410 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 2680 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Shanxi, the average price was around 2590 yuan / ton, the price was down; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 2670 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Ningxia, the average price was around 2450 yuan / ton, the price was up. The price of liquid fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market was up and down.

 

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from September 25 to September 21

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2380 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 40 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2390 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day, 2500 yuan / ton, 2480 yuan / ton, 20 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2680 yuan / ton: 2930 yuan / ton – 250 yuan

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2430 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Qinshui Xinao – 2650 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton – 50 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 3100 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 400 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 2050 yuan / ton 2050 yuan / ton

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market negotiation price in Lubei market on 25th was 1620-1630 yuan / T, which was delivered to spot exchange. The transaction situation is expected to decline. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at around 1750 yuan / t spot exchange, some of which can be negotiated. Linyi receives local goods of 1710-1720 yuan / ton and delivers them without tax. There are not many offers for logistics goods. Most of the operators wait and see, and the market transaction is average. The methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1800 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price of peripheral goods is stable at 1630-1640 yuan / ton. The transaction is relatively general, so the market will wait and see.

 

The domestic liquid ammonia market is stable in most regions, and the downstream demand is rigid and stable. The winter storage of urea has started, but the relief of the current high inventory is not great, and the price support is limited. For the downstream fertilizer market, with the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage Considering that liquid ammonia is stable in the near future, there is a downward risk in the medium and long term price.

 

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

 

The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is going up. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2570-2600 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 1980-2020 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price of methane chloride is well supported; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is poor and the support is insufficient.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

LNG analysts from business club believe that: in the near holiday season, downstream replenishment will increase, manufacturers’ shipment will turn smooth, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the domestic LNG market trend is strong, and it is expected that there will be further upward performance in the short term.

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