According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market will fluctuate upward in January 2026. From January 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price increased from 5510 yuan/ton to 5710 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 3.63% during the period.
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This month, the domestic mixed xylene market has shown a periodic fluctuation and upward trend. At the beginning of the month, driven by the stabilization and recovery of the crude oil market and strong fluctuations in PX futures, the market’s attitude towards offering was relatively warm. Refineries in core production areas in Shandong shipped smoothly, and the markets in East and South China followed suit, with main refinery prices steadily increasing and the market negotiation atmosphere active; Although PX futures experienced a short-term correction in the middle of the month, triggering a slight wait-and-see attitude in the market and causing some fluctuations in price trends, there is still support on the cost side of crude oil, and refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices, so prices have not shown a significant decline; At the end of the month, with the recovery of the refining industry’s prosperity, coupled with the upward trend of international market prices, the trading atmosphere in the domestic market has once again heated up. Manufacturers’ quotations continue to rise, and prices in various markets have risen synchronously, pushing prices to reach a new high for the month. The purchasing mentality of downstream oil and chemical industries has improved compared to last month. Although on-demand procurement is still the main focus, the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory has increased, and the phased stocking behavior has provided practical support for the upward trend of market prices.
On the cost side: The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened a strong upward trend, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.37 per barrel.
Supply side:
In January, the overall operation of domestic mixed xylene production enterprises was stable, and the main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical started working normally. The production and sales connection was smooth, and the overall supply of goods in the industry was abundant. The quotations of refineries in various regions under Sinopec have generally increased compared to last month, and the shipment situation of refineries in the core production areas of Shandong is good, providing stable support for the upward trend of regional market prices. This month, there was no significant maintenance or load reduction in the domestic mixed xylene market supply side, and the production pace of enterprises was stable. Although the quotation continued to increase, the pressure on manufacturers to ship was relatively small, and the mentality of raising prices was firm, supporting the steady rise of market prices.
Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 30th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5400-5600 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5400-5700 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price will be uniformly implemented in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China; The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal product sales, and the current price has increased by 300 yuan/ton compared to December 30th.
In terms of international markets, as of January 28th, the closing prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region were 898-900 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 923-925 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton from the end of last month. The strengthening of the PX market has boosted the overall atmosphere of the domestic aromatic hydrocarbon sector, and the PX futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen synchronously. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 7392 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan/ton from the end of last month, forming a positive driving force for the toluene market.
The domestic oil blending and chemical industry has shown a trend of strong demand followed by weak demand this month. In the first half of the month, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries such as coatings, dyes, and pharmaceutical intermediates have started pre holiday restocking, resulting in a marginal increase in procurement volume and becoming an important driving force for price increases; However, after the completion of the phased replenishment in the middle and late stages, downstream industries returned to the on-demand procurement strategy and did not engage in secondary centralized replenishment behavior. The oil adjustment side maintained rigid demand procurement, which had limited further driving effect on prices. The market trading atmosphere at the end of the month weakened, becoming the main reason for the slight price correction. Overall, although there was no significant increase in demand this month, the temporary support formed by pre holiday replenishment still provided strong impetus for the rise in toluene prices.
Market forecast:
The current domestic mixed xylene market is dominated by favorable factors, and there are obvious advantages in the long short game. On the one hand, after the stabilization and recovery of the crude oil market, cost support continues to strengthen, and the transmission effect of the PX market’s volatile upward trend is still present. In addition, the stable operation of domestic supply side equipment and the firm willingness of manufacturers to raise prices provide basic support for the market; On the other hand, the prosperity of the refining industry has rebounded, and the trend of marginal improvement in downstream demand is expected to continue. Coupled with the external driving force of rising international market prices, market sentiment is relatively warm. Overall, the mixed xylene market still has upward momentum in the short term and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern. It is necessary to focus on the trend of the crude oil market, the fluctuation of PX futures prices, and the follow-up of downstream actual demand.
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