According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 30th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the price on January 1st.

The market price of acrylic acid in January first fell and then rose. In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene first fell and then rose. The cost faced with the support of the acrylic acid market was average, and there was not much pressure on the supply side. However, the demand side was weak, and downstream prices followed suit. The purchasing mentality was cautious, and the price of acrylic acid was reduced narrowly. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost pressure has increased. The operating rate has slightly increased compared to the previous period, and there is still support on the supply side. However, the enthusiasm for downstream stocking is average, with a focus on following up on low rigid demand. The demand performance is average, and the market is mainly stable. In the latter half of the year, cost support continued, coupled with the shutdown of some devices, supporting a slight increase in prices. Downstream stocking was mainly based on demand, and the market atmosphere was average.

Cost side: Upstream propylene. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on January 29th was 6955.75, an increase of 1.27% compared to January 1st (6868.25). The cost side is strongly supported by the acrylic acid market.

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that current costs and supply side support still exist, and downstream demand is mainly followed up. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

In January, the domestic price of fluorite declined, with an average price of 3343.75 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 5.31% from the initial price of 3531.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 5.73%.

Supply side: Raw ore is still tight, fluorite production is declining

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining accidents have occurred in some areas, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. Some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, which has increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, The shortage of raw materials has restricted the production of fluorite enterprises. In addition, some manufacturers in the north have been affected by rainy and snowy weather, which has limited their production. As the Spring Festival approaches, some fluorite enterprises have started to take a holiday, resulting in a decrease in spot supply of fluorite. At the same time, downstream procurement is poor, and the fluorite market is declining.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is declining, and the starting point of refrigerant production is low

In January, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid declined, with the mainstream negotiated price in various regions of the country ranging from 10000 to 10400 yuan/ton. The price of hydrofluoric acid dropped by 2.36%, and some units are still in shutdown recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is average. The decline in hydrofluoric acid price is detrimental to the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase according to demand. The downstream market is not good, and the domestic fluorite market is declining.

In January, the market for downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market slightly increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remained low. The procurement of raw materials was not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers was not high. Downstream procurement needed to follow up, and some production enterprises gradually accumulated inventory. In the new year, supply gradually decreased, reducing supply pressure, and insufficient demand for dealer procurement. The price of R22 remained mainly low. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 28000 to 29000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction volume in the refrigerant industry is relatively flat, and the production of the refrigerant industry remains sluggish with average demand. As a result, the price of fluorite has decreased.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the decline in the fluorite market is not significant.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. The number of companies on holiday has gradually increased. However, the purchasing sentiment of hydrofluoric acid companies is poor, and the hydrofluoric acid market trend is still declining. The upstream and downstream game situation is intensifying. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price trend of fluorite in the future will be mainly volatile.

The price of ethylene glycol rose in January

The price of ethylene glycol has risen this week. According to data from Business Society, as of January 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4596.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.71% from the beginning of the month, and a weekly increase of 2.45%. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4600-4700 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4550 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China’s spot market is 4550 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

The price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly since December 2023 due to the impact of overseas device news and continuous inventory depletion. Currently, the price has exceeded the highest level in 2023, with an increase of 11.21% compared to the low level on December 15.

The upward movement of ethylene glycol prices this week is mainly due to the continuous downward movement of inventory data and the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals.

Inventory removal within the week compared to the previous week

As of January 25, 2024, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 836000 tons, which is 1.2255 million tons from the high inventory level (December 7, 2023), and has continued to decline unilaterally by 389500 tons. Looking at the week, on the 18th, the main port in East China had 93000 tons of ethylene glycol inventory and 94000 tons of destocking.

This week, domestic port inventory has decreased, on the one hand due to the expected decrease in overseas input caused by overseas device shutdowns and maintenance, as well as the impact of the Red Sea incident on domestic shipping; On the other hand, it is also due to the long sealing period of the main port during the week, resulting in limited unloading at the port.

Future expectations

The main variables currently affecting the price of ethylene glycol are the implementation of import volume reduction and whether the underlying cost support brought about by crude oil and coal prices will continue.

The inventory of ethylene glycol at the port has decreased, which is in line with the expectation of overseas supply contraction in the early stage, and the central price of ethylene glycol has shifted upwards. In the short term, the price of ethylene glycol tends to be strong.

Looking at the trend chart of coal tar ex factory prices in Shanxi Province in 2023, it can be seen that the average ex factory price at the beginning of 2023 was 6155 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the price was 4237.5 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 31.15%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 1st at 6155 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on May 11th at 2652.5 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 56.9%. The overall trend of the coal tar market in 2023 was volatile and downward, with a wide range of fluctuations in the first half of the year after a decline. The range fluctuates in the second half of the year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the coal tar market in 2023 saw more declines and less gains, with a total of 5 months of gains and 7 months of declines. The month with the highest increase was May, which saw a 32% increase, while the month with the highest decrease was April, which saw a 36.91% decrease.

Phase 1: In the first half of the year, it first fell and then rose

In January, the supply of tar remained relatively stable, while the deep processing industry experienced a significant decline. Among them, anthracene oil fell by 1350 yuan/ton, coal tar asphalt fell by 1500 yuan/ton, and the prices of other commodities also fell by nearly a thousand yuan. Under the mentality of suppressing deep processing, the auction price of tar has significantly declined, with the last auction price before the holiday falling by over a thousand yuan in a single transaction, a monthly drop of 19.37%.

In February, it rose by 13%, and the prices of major commodities in the downstream deep processing industry steadily increased, especially coal tar and anthracene oil prices. The deep processing industry has good profits and is actively operating, with a good acceptance of tar price increases. As the price of raw material tar continues to rise, downstream profits have significantly declined, and by the end of the month, resistance towards high priced raw materials has begun to emerge.

From March to mid May, tar prices continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 52.7%. During this cycle, the overall production of coking enterprises has been relatively high, and the supply of tar has remained stable with a slight increase. At the same time, the downstream deep processing industry has been experiencing continuous decline, with a strong attitude towards suppressing raw material tar. There have also been many cases of enterprise auctions. In order to digest inventory, coking enterprises have been forced to sell at lower prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the coal tar market under the weak supply-demand pattern.

In June, prices rose first and then fell. After entering June, coking enterprises started to rise first and then fall. The supply of tar was slightly tight. After two and a half months of decline in the early stage, tar prices dropped to a low level, and coking enterprises had a strong attitude of price support. Under the mentality of supply and demand game, the tar market ushered in a wave of recovery. However, during the same period, downstream demand did not show a significant improvement, and the lack of demand support made it difficult to maintain the upward trend, leading to a brief pullback in late June.

Phase 2: In the second half of the year, the range fluctuates and the overall price rises first and then falls

During this cycle, the price of coal tar has maintained a fluctuating trend, with an overall fluctuation range of 4250-5200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29% within six months. According to the trend, the National Day holiday is basically used as the dividing point, with the first half of the cycle oscillating upwards and the second half oscillating downwards.

From July to mid October, it fell first and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 17.41%. In early July, during the coke steel game, the demand in the deep processing industry was poor, making it difficult to bear high prices of tar. Under the pressure of downstream pressure, prices slightly declined. From August to September, downstream carbon black prices significantly increased, and the profitability of the deep processing industry improved significantly, driving raw material prices into a new upward trend. Driven by terminal demand, tar prices remained high and volatile.

After entering October, the prices of domestic deep processing related commodities have generally decreased, with weak demand support. The sales of major commodities such as carbon black have been poor, and some coal tar enterprises have experienced auction failures, further leading to a decline in market sentiment. By the end of the peak season in November, the carbon black market had entered a rapid downward trend, with a market decline of over a thousand yuan, falling by 9.61% in November. In November, the coal tar market underwent 5 rounds of overall auctions, with a total of 4 rounds of decline and one round of slight increase. Although coal tar supply was slightly tight within the month, auction prices continued to decline without downstream support. December basically continued the trend of November, mainly due to the poor performance of downstream carbon black and coal tar pitch markets, losses in the deep processing industry, suppression of raw materials, and the occurrence of auctions in many places, resulting in overall weak market sentiment.

Looking ahead to 2024:

From the review of the trend in 2023, it can be seen that the main factors affecting the auction price of coal tar are supply and demand. Due to the fact that coal tar is produced along with coke during the coal dry distillation process, the main production enterprises are coking enterprises. As one of the important raw materials in steel production, coke has a relatively stable operating rate overall, especially when dealing with production reduction. Therefore, the operating rate of coking enterprises in 2023 is basically fluctuating between 70% and 80%, and the supply of corresponding coal tar is mostly stable. Overall, the current trend of the downstream deep processing industry has a greater impact on the tar market. The coal tar deep processing industry is the main application field of high-temperature coal tar, and the main commodities obtained from deep processing include naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, coal tar pitch, carbon black, etc. So what will happen to the coal tar market in the future? From the perspectives of supply and demand:

Supply: The operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively stable, and there is little change in the supply of tar

Supply: High temperature coal tar is one of the main by-products in the coke production process, and monitoring coke production can provide a better understanding of the production situation of coal tar. At present, the operating situation of coking enterprises is less affected by external factors, and the correlation between actual coke production and production capacity is relatively low. The operating rate mainly fluctuates with the profitability of coking enterprises themselves. From the above chart of changes in operating rates of coke enterprises from 2022 to present, it can be intuitively felt that coke enterprises are still adjusting their operating rates very frequently, but overall, they are still adjusting within the range of 70% -80%, and the magnitude will not be too large, especially when dealing with production reduction with caution. From the comparison chart of coke production over the years, it can also be seen that the overall coke production in 2023 is relatively stable, with little difference between different months. Mainly because steel mills have been actively increasing production in the past 23 years, the demand for coke has been relatively stable. Therefore, the current production situation of coke mainly depends on the demand of downstream steel mills, and the actual production of coke is closely related to the operation of blast furnaces in steel mills. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the coke production in 2023 was 492.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Currently, the overall supply of coke is relatively stable, and it is expected that the supply of coke will also be relatively stable in 24 years without obvious external factors. It can be inferred that the overall supply of coal tar in 24 years will also be relatively stable, and some months’ production will fluctuate with the peak season, but the amplitude is limited.

Demand: The terminal demand in the deep processing industry is expected to be good, and demand support still exists

Demand: From the above table, it can be seen that the prices of related commodities in the deep processing industry have significantly declined in 2023, with coal tar having the largest annual decline of 3200 yuan/ton. The weak performance of downstream products is also the main factor for the significant decline in coal tar prices in 2023. The terminal demand for major downstream products in deep processing is basically implemented in the infrastructure and automotive industries. In 2023, the production and sales of automobiles reached a new high, and the domestic economy was operating steadily. Market participants generally believe that the production and sales boom of the tire industry in 2024 will continue, and the demand for carbon black may improve. The prospects of the coal tar pitch market in 2024 will also be relatively optimistic, with continuous expansion of the demand side and the possibility of stable price growth. From the perspective of terminal demand, there is still demand support in 2024.

In the future, Business Society believes that the overall supply of tar will remain stable with a slight increase in 2024, and there is some positive demand side. It is expected that high-temperature coal tar will have some upward space in the next 24 years, and the specific market trend will mainly follow the fluctuations in profits of downstream deep processing industries and the impact of demand during the off peak season. In the short term, there is some upward space due to the boost of pre holiday stocking demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.15-1.22), with an average market price of 209610 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 214050 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 2.12%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, there has been an overall upward trend during the cycle, but as prices rise, the spot market has gradually become wait-and-see and has a certain resistance to high prices. Recently, market trading has been relatively light. In terms of supply, the smelter’s operating rate has slightly increased this cycle, and the overall operating rate has slightly rebounded. The supply at the mining end remains tight. In terms of demand, as the spot market continues to rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market has significantly weakened. Some enterprises still have pre holiday stocking needs, but currently the market prices are high, and they hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude, temporarily delaying their entry into the market for procurement. In the long run, domestic integrated circuit production has continued to rebound in the near future, and market expectations have improved compared to the previous period. Overall, there is still purchasing demand downstream in the short term, but high prices have constrained some of the demand. Without demand support, it is expected that the tin ingot market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term. In the long run, market expectations are still acceptable, and there may be some upward potential in the tin ingot market after the holiday.

Related data:

On January 21, the base metal index was 1161 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.84% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 21, the non-ferrous index was at 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the third week of 2024 (1.15-1.19), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (2.17%), dysprosium oxide (2.08%), and antimony (2.01%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-1.71%), aluminum (-1.00%), and silver (-0.77%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has shown a stable trend. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on January 19th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20500 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.16% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market remained stable with minor fluctuations, with production line operating rates hovering at a low level. The overall industry load was around 61%, unchanged from last week. During the week, the market supply of goods was tight, the inventory position was average, the pricing operation of enterprises was firm, and the support from suppliers was still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production as their main source of goods, with pre holiday stocking centered around weak and rigid demand, and weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the price of hexamethylene diamine has been consolidating and running, with the main focus on early stage contracts and prices remaining stable. The market price of adipic acid has been boosted by upstream pure benzene, leading to a stronger support for PA66. Overall, the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is still acceptable. But currently, the market demand is weak, and the overall price of PA66 is sideways.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 remained stagnant. The price of raw materials increases and stabilizes, strengthening the support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production while holding a resistant attitude towards high priced sources of goods. It is expected that the weak supply-demand pattern before the holiday will not change, and PA66 may continue to remain stagnant in the future market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China has recently risen first and then fallen. On January 16th, the average market price in East China was 16800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16700 yuan/ton on January 8th, an increase of 0.60%.

Recently, the domestic TDI market has experienced a rise followed by a decline, with price ranges fluctuating. The filling of factory spot goods is slow, and the trading market is observing the guidance of supplier news. Earlier last week, Shanghai Kesichuang TDI execution price was raised, and the prices of holders followed suit. However, downstream follow-up was limited, and the demand in the terminal market was insufficient. The supplier’s mentality was limited, and the operator’s mentality was not good. Under the supply-demand game, the TDI price slightly decreased in the later stage.

The upstream toluene market has slightly increased. On January 16th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6710 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to the price of 6680 yuan/ton on January 8th. The international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with good support from the cost and external prices of toluene. The price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, while domestic production has slightly decreased. The pressure on toluene supply has been alleviated, and downstream demand for toluene is just in demand. The support for toluene is average, and the toluene market has slightly increased.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that domestic TDI spot filling is slow, factories have a supportive attitude towards the market, and holders are actively shipping, but market trading is limited. Downstream buyers follow up on demand, and there is a lack of positive demand. The market supply and demand are deadlocked, and TDI price fluctuations are limited. Considering that there is stock demand in the downstream before the holiday, it is expected that the TDI market will slightly increase in the later stage. Specific attention will be paid to downstream buyers and the release of market news from suppliers.

Market analysis for this week

This week, the price of magnesium ingots remained weak and stable, with little change in the supply and demand pattern. The actual market transactions were average. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingots in the market was 20566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% compared to the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of factories, production has increased, coupled with weak downstream demand, which is mainly based on rigid demand. Some downstream enterprises have also stopped production and had a holiday early during the Spring Festival; The overseas situation is tightening, and some customers are delaying procurement, resulting in increased inventory pressure. Overall, the imbalance between supply and demand in the magnesium market is difficult to improve in the short term, and the market has a strong bearish sentiment.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was around 6500-6600 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03%. At present, due to the continuous decline in the market, coupled with the influence of the “buy up not buy down” sentiment and the lack of optimism about the future market, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the ferrosilicon market is relatively strong, and the actual operating situation is cold.

This week, the blue charcoal market was operating weakly. Mainstream calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia have lowered the purchase prices of small and medium-sized materials by 30-40 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have lowered their blue charcoal quotations by 30 yuan/ton. Although coal tar prices can provide some profit subsidies to blue charcoal enterprises, it is difficult to reverse the situation of enterprise losses, and the blue charcoal market is operating weakly in the short term. As of January 12th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 980-1160 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 680-750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 1000-1200 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 700-750 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there has been no significant improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals of the magnesium market, and downstream demand remains weak and sluggish. Considering that the price of magnesium ingots is close to the production cost line, coupled with support from raw material costs, there is limited room for exploration. It is expected that the bottom range of magnesium ingot prices will remain stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell first and then rose this week (1.8-1.15). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 205910 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 209610 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.8%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the market fell first and then rose during the cycle. Under the influence of declining inventory data, Shanghai tin rose significantly. On the 12th, Shanghai tin closed rapidly in the night trading session, and spot market prices followed suit with a significant increase. As prices rose, the enthusiasm for spot market inquiries significantly declined, downstream purchasing intentions were weak, and market trading significantly turned cold. From the perspective of supply and demand, companies that underwent early maintenance have plans to resume work in the near future, but the overall operating rate remains low this week, and the overall supply of tin ingots remains tight. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises generally have stocking plans as the Spring Festival approaches. Therefore, recent market transactions have significantly improved, which has also led to a significant decline in domestic inventory and heated up the domestic market atmosphere. Overall, the downstream demand is currently good, but with the rise of market prices, the willingness to receive goods from downstream has significantly declined. With the commencement of subsequent equipment construction, the tight supply situation will be improved to some extent. It is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to face significant upward pressure in the short term, with a stable and strong trend as the main trend.

Related data:

On January 14th, the tin commodity index was 105.27, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.92% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 145.61% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices of various brands have adjusted narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, some enterprises had a reduced load. This week, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises has been lowered to below 68%, resulting in stable production and a decrease in inventory due to factory destocking operations. However, the improvement of the company’s profit situation is limited, and there is still pressure on the supply side.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials this week is average, with a significant decline in the acrylonitrile market. The narrow increase in raw material propylene prices has limited support for the cost of acrylonitrile. This week, the supply of acrylonitrile is relatively loose, and downstream enterprises have poor stocking enthusiasm. The weak operation may continue in the future.

The atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market has warmed up this week. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and some industries are still operating weakly, the demand news has brought a significant drag on the spot market of butadiene. However, the domestic market is strong both inside and outside the week, and domestic sources are actively engaged in export negotiations. This news has boosted the spot market in the middle and later stages of the week.

From the chart below, it can be seen that the styrene market price has slightly increased this week. Although some ports have concentrated cargo arrivals, there has been an accumulation of port inventory. But downstream demand continues to follow, while upstream crude oil has recently risen in the far end, with strong cost support and a rebound in the market.

In terms of demand: This week, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, have continued to have poor stocking enthusiasm. The main logic revolves around buying on dips and digesting inventory. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have increased their holiday arrangements, and their procurement operations tend to be weak, with a strong demand to maintain production, making it difficult to increase demand. Mid stream traders are offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in slow spot circulation and dragging down the market.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials was average, with limited support for the cost side of ABS. The start of petrochemical plants has been lowered to alleviate some supply pressures. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants have weak confidence in the future market. The current market trading is light, and the pre holiday market is heavy. It is expected that the ABS market will remain weak.