According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of lithium carbonate remained rising rapidly in January 2022, and the price continued to jump up until the end of the month. On January 27, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 353600 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.93% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 266000 yuan / ton on January 1). On January 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 382000 yuan / ton, which was 35.46% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 282000 yuan / ton). Until the 27th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was between 350000 and 383000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was between 360000 and 41000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, after the end of the new year’s Day holiday this month, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise and the quotation continues to set a new high. The shutdown and overhaul of major manufacturers in the market and the gas restriction of natural gas in Qinghai still lead to the low supply, so the quotation of some enterprises is still rising. At present, the supply of goods in the market is still at a low level. All enterprises basically focus on the supply of long-term cooperative customers, and the quotations of some traders for industrial carbon and electric carbon are increasing.

Around the middle of January, the price of lithium in Wuxi fell sharply, and some enterprises in the market released a little. However, under the circumstances of limited inventory and high downstream demand, it had little impact on the price of lithium carbonate, and the spot price remained high. Although the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the demand for downstream goods preparation is still strong, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise. Downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises still have some shortage of goods, and ternary manufacturers have sufficient raw materials supported by some long orders. The market stock situation in February and March is not optimistic, and the order inquiry and purchase demand will continue. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream manufacturers may reduce production due to the shortage of lithium carbonate raw materials.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market rose steadily, the price of raw material spodumene was high, lithium hydroxide actively followed the rise of raw materials, downstream inquiry and procurement were active, the market atmosphere was active, and the price rose. Before the festival, the downstream replenishment was positive, the demand side was improved, and the lithium hydroxide Market was strong.

The price trend of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is upward. At present, the manufacturers are actively shipping. Due to the tight supply side, the focus of negotiation is high, the focus of the upstream market is high, and the price rises. The lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is strong.

According to the lithium carbonate analyst of business society, the output of lithium carbonate fell for several weeks in January, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. At the end of the month, the logistics market was basically shut down, and the upstream shipments gradually decreased, while the production scheduling demand for cathode materials remained high. Under the condition that the upstream shipments were still tight and the downstream stock sentiment remained unchanged, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may rise strongly after the year.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of styrene in Shandong remained at 6066.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 8400 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 38.43% in the whole year. The highest price point appeared at 10666.67 yuan / ton on May 18 in the second quarter, and the lowest price point appeared at 6066.67 yuan / ton on January 1.

In 2021, the price of styrene generally showed a trend of “rise shock fall”. The strong rise in the first half of the year was mainly due to the shutdown of a large number of units in the United States affected by the cold wave, the simultaneous maintenance of units in Europe and the Middle East, the shortage of global styrene supply, the price of overseas styrene increased the domestic price, the reduction of domestic net import, the low industrial inventory and the rise of price shock. The overall trend from the middle of the year to the third quarter was stable, which was the opposition between strong cost support and weak demand. The decline in the fourth quarter was due to the increase in the import of raw material pure benzene, the decline in the price, and the weakening of styrene cost support.

According to the K-bar chart of business community month, the number of months of styrene price rise in 2021 is more than the number of months of decline, of which the upward range is the largest in February, reaching 39%, and the downward range is the largest in November, reaching 19.7%.

In the first quarter, the price of styrene rose. On January 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 6066.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was about 8533.33 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 40.66%. From January to the end of February, the price of styrene continued to rise. The crude oil market continues to rise, ethylene and pure benzene rise all the way, and the cost support of styrene becomes stronger. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, funds have strong optimistic expectations for downstream demand due to the in-situ Festival, and the styrene market as a whole has risen sharply. By the beginning of March, crude oil rebounded strongly, and bulk commodities were all positive. At the same time, pure benzene and ethylene also rose strongly, and the cost side was stimulated. In addition, the styrene inventory in the port was still at a historically low level, orders continued to be traded during export, and the US dollar price also played a supporting role at a high level, making the outer circumference better, As a result, the spot price of styrene surged to a new high of 9616.67 yuan / ton from the high correction to March 8. After March 8, with the continuous recovery of peripheral parking devices, domestic export shipments slowed down and export orders decreased significantly. Although the wharf inventory continued to decline, the decline was less than expected. In addition, the downstream and terminal demand was delayed to cash in, the positive output of styrene was exhausted, and the positions of futures EB05 were reduced, At the same time, under the short position increase, the futures price fell rapidly, and the market bearish sentiment appeared, guiding the continuous correction of styrene spot within the month. Near March 22, crude oil fell sharply, helping styrene fall to near cash flow. With the strong support of the cost side, the price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded. Under the strong expectation of the cost side, short supply at the end of the month and goods preparation during the Qingming holiday, as well as the expectation of tight spot supply in April, the market bull confidence was boosted, and the night trading of styrene futures rose, driving the spot price upward, The price of styrene rebounded to around 8533.33 yuan / ton.

In the second quarter, the price of styrene fluctuated and rose slightly. On April 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 8766.67 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9125.00 yuan / ton, up 4.09%. The trend of the second quarter can be divided into two parts. In the first part, from early April to mid May, the European and American economies gradually recovered, the popularity of vaccines boosted the demand for crude oil, and the international crude oil maintained a optimistic attitude, driving the rise of bulk commodities. Due to the centralized shutdown of styrene units in the United States due to the cold wave, the global supply is tightened, there is arbitrage in the source of export goods, there is a need to replenish the spot goods for export shipment, and the demand side support is strong. In addition, the maintenance of domestic styrene factories was concentrated in April, and the import volume shrank significantly. During the month, the inventory of ports and styrene factories continued to fall to a low level, giving bulls the opportunity to rise, the main futures bulls increased their positions, and the spot tracked up. In the second part, from late May to late June, crude oil surged, pure benzene callback and styrene cost support weakened. With the continuous release of new domestic production capacity of styrene, the gap between supply and demand gradually narrowed, the market bullish confidence weakened and the price fell. At the end of June, the price of pure benzene rose sharply under the tight market and supported a certain rebound in the price of styrene. However, the overall demand for styrene downstream decreased, and the spot price of styrene was slightly corrected.

In the third quarter, the price of styrene fluctuated first and then fell, and the overall price fell slightly. On July 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9262.50 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9190.00 yuan / ton, down 0.78%. In July, the domestic styrene market showed a shock trend of correction after rise. The rise and fall of styrene prices basically revolved around the cost side. The trend of crude oil and pure benzene guided the price of styrene more. The fundamentals changed little and remained stable as a whole. In August, the price of styrene fluctuated in a narrow range under the support of cost and the suppression of demand, and fell as a whole. After the sharp rise of Styrene Market in September, it fell slowly. East China pure benzene rose slightly in the shock, and the maintenance news of downstream styrene Zhejiang Petrochemical in October triggered a sharp rise in styrene futures and spot. Driven by linkage trading, pure benzene has been actively bought, the price has risen rapidly, and the cost support has given impetus to the rise of styrene. By the middle of the month, the rise of pure benzene was weak and the price fell continuously. This led to a correction in styrene prices. Near the end of the month, the price of styrene fluctuated and stabilized, the purchasing market before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the spot buying sentiment appeared one after another, but the pursuit was weak. In addition, the supply and demand decreased under the “energy-saving policy” in Jiangsu, while styrene units were restarted in other regions, the supply increment superimposed the arrival of ports, and the rebound of styrene was unsupported, showing an consolidation situation.

In the fourth quarter, the price of styrene generally declined. On October 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9190.00 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8400.00 yuan / ton, down 8.6%. In the quarter, from the macro perspective, the crude oil fluctuated lower from October to late November. From the low of November, the mutant strain Omicron was found and widely spread, the fear of economic recovery was restarted, the oil price fell sharply, and the macro environment support was insufficient. The price of pure benzene on the cost side fell sharply due to the rise of inventory in East China port, the subsequent centralized arrival of ships, and the expectation of load increase of large units in East China. The supply of styrene increased sharply due to the restart of large units and the planned operation of subsequent new production capacity, resulting in strong bearish sentiment in the market. In the downstream, as the temperature drops, some downstream areas in the North enter the seasonal off-season, and the construction starts decline. Due to the impact of environmental protection, the demand is further under pressure, and the price of styrene has plummeted all the way. By December, under the influence of cost support and obvious destocking performance of wharf inventory due to incremental pick-up, the styrene price superimposed the market’s short expectation that Wanhua and lihuayi will be put into operation soon, fell back slowly after the sharp rise, and rebounded at the end of the month, rising as a whole.

According to the styrene data analyst of business society, the styrene price generally showed a trend of “rise shock fall” in 2021. The decrease of imports promoted the rise, and the cost support strengthened in the early stage and then weakened. As 2022 approaches, it is expected that the effective production capacity of styrene will increase by 27% in 2022, and the industrial chain will also usher in centralized production. The production capacity growth of upstream and downstream core links may reach a high level. Looking ahead, the supply of styrene and its downstream products will be relaxed. In 2022, based on the expected requirements of the state for the stability maintenance of the real estate industry, the growth rate of terminal demand such as household appliances slowed down, and there was a risk of slowdown in foreign demand after superimposing the gradual consumption of subsidies for the U.S. epidemic. Next year’s styrene price will be balanced by crude oil cost guidance, import volume, port inventory and downstream enthusiasm for taking goods.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 25, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 9933 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (the reference price is 8733 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 1200 yuan / ton, or 13.74%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a steady upward trend. After the end of the new year’s Day holiday, the downstream of domestic dimethyl carbonate began to prepare goods one after another, and the downstream demand performed well. The goods were prepared and purchased intensively before the festival. The sales pressure of dimethyl carbonate factory was small, and the market price of dimethyl carbonate was strong and upward all the way. On January 15, the average price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was 9550 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the average price was increased by 817 yuan / ton, a half month increase of 9.35%.

In late January, the construction of Shandong dimethyl carbonate factory was postponed, the on-site supply decreased, and the supply pressure of the factory was not large. The market price of dimethyl carbonate continued to rise. On January 21, the average ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate rose to around 9933 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.01% in seven days. In the last week of January, the downstream preparation of dimethyl carbonate was completed one after another, and the purchasing atmosphere became weaker. Supported by the continuous tight supply before the festival, the dimethyl carbonate market continued to operate at a high level. The downstream customers mainly waited and waited after the preparation, and there were sporadic out of stock replenishment orders. As of January 25, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 9800-10000 yuan / ton, The cumulative increase in January exceeded 13%.

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on January 24 was 175.29, the same as yesterday, 29.88% lower than the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and 75.29% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

On the upstream side of propylene oxide, the market price of propylene oxide has risen recently. The price of raw propylene rose, the cost support was gradually strengthened, some devices in the field operated with a slightly low load, and the spot supply was tight, which supported the manufacturers’ mentality of supporting the market. At the beginning of the week, the new orders in the downstream were general, mainly on the sidelines. With the moderate preparation of some downstream goods, the market was strong and followed up. On the 24th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11100-11200 yuan / ton.

For the upstream dimethyl ether Market, on January 24, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose strongly, the Henan market rose slightly, and the market prices in Hebei and Shandong rose significantly, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. The cost methanol market was adjusted horizontally, and the civil LPG market was stable and upward, which brought some support to the market. The market trading atmosphere was mild. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will still rise slightly in the short term.

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream factories of dimethyl carbonate have been withdrawn from the market for holidays, and the market inquiry atmosphere is light. The dimethyl carbonate analysts of the business society believe that before the Spring Festival, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is stable and in full operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose this week. The quotation of sulfur was 2130 yuan / ton on January 24. Compared with the price of 2096.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it increased by 1.59% during the week and 5.10% month on month.

The domestic sulfur market has been sorted upward, the downstream demand has increased, the sulfuric acid Market and phosphate fertilizer have made good progress, the shipment of sulfur enterprises is smooth, and the operator’s mentality is positive and optimistic. During the week, refineries in various regions raised their quotation according to their shipment and inventory, which is different from that in various regions. The liquid sulfur in East China increased by 50-70 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 1830-1900 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be raised by 20 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1640-1800 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be raised by 80 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1840-1890 yuan / ton. As of January 23, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties January 17th January 23rd Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 2120-2210 yuan / ton 2140-2230 yuan / ton twenty

North China Sulfur (particle) 1800-1990 yuan / ton 1830-2020 yuan / ton thirty

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 2030-2050 yuan / ton 2080 yuan / ton 30-50

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market was stable and positive, the downstream demand increased before the festival, and the new orders in the venue were well traded. On Monday, the market trend of ammonium rose steadily, with a price increase of 1.31% compared with that at the end of last week. The downstream procurement enthusiasm and the market situation were good. The quotations of some manufacturers were increased, the manufacturers had more early orders, and a small number of enterprises received orders. The market of diammonium continued to be stable during the week and the market demand increased. However, due to the large number of orders in the early stage, some enterprises suspended receiving orders. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, ammonium phosphate market runs smoothly.

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the arrival and circulation volume of domestic ports is small, and the downstream replenishment before the festival is superimposed. The refineries in various regions are actively increasing with the good attitude of the market. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end in the later stage, and the port supply will also enter the market. It is expected that the sulfur market will wait and see and pay attention to the market follow-up in the future.

DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, DOP prices first rose and then fell this week, and DOP prices rose and then fell. As of January 21, the DOP price was 11350 yuan / ton, up 10.46% from 10275 yuan / ton on January 14 last weekend. The rising demand for goods preparation during the Spring Festival stimulated the sharp rise of DOP price. After the goods preparation, DOP price lost its support and fell.

Isooctanol prices stabilized after rising

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price stabilized after rising this week, with an increase of 14.06%. This week, the customer’s pre holiday goods preparation basically ended, the demand fell, and the price of isooctanol stabilized after rising. The price of isooctanol stabilized, the cost of plasticizer DOP stabilized, the stock preparation for the Spring Festival basically ended, and the transaction of isooctanol fell. In the future, the rising power of isooctanol price weakened, the downward pressure increased, the rising power of DOP weakened and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising this week. As of January 21, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7675 yuan / ton, up 3.54% from 7412.50 yuan / ton on January 17. The Spring Festival stock up ended one after another, the demand for phthalic anhydride decreased rapidly after a short increase, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized in the future, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride stabilized, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

PVC market fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price rebounded and rose this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 21, the price of PVC was 8460 yuan / ton, up 2.17% from 8280 yuan / ton on January 14. During the downstream Spring Festival, the goods were prepared in advance, the PVC price rose, the spring festival goods preparation ended one after another, and the rigid demand decreased; The overall demand for plasticizer is insufficient, and the DOP market is relatively bad.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that due to the impact of goods preparation during the Spring Festival, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week, and the cost of DOP rose; With the end of spring festival goods preparation, the price of raw materials stabilized and fell, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the Spring Festival stock up is gradually over, the demand for plasticizers is insufficient, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, the downward pressure is increased, and the DOP price is expected to be adjusted weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on January 16 was 11166.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 122.59% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market continued to operate weakly and stably this week. Affected by the reduction of the price of raw yellow phosphorus, the focus of the phosphoric acid market has shifted downward. Some enterprises have reduced their quotation slightly. Most enterprises wait and see for a while, but have a certain intention to reduce the price. At present, the operation of phosphoric acid enterprises is relatively stable, there is no major contradiction between supply and demand, and the price is mainly arranged. According to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Sichuan is 9700-11500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 11900 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 11500-12000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 9500-12500 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has fallen steadily this month.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 17th 9700-11500

Yunnan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 17th 11000-12000

Jiangsu region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 17th 9500-12500

Hubei region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 17th 10500-11500

Shandong region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 17th 11500-12000

As for phosphate rock, the overall high-level consolidation operation of the domestic phosphate rock market is approaching the Spring Festival. The supply side of the site changes little, and the commencement remains low. The phosphate rock is used by itself or mainly by contract users. The downstream demand side performs well. The downstream Yellow Phosphorus market continues to move closer to the low-end price, the increase of market turnover gives support to the phosphate rock market, and the phosphate rock quotation is high and stable. As of January 14, the domestic phosphate rock Market in Guizhou has operated stably. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 630-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade phosphate rock platform is around 290-310 yuan / ton. In Hubei, China, phosphate rock mines are arranged and operated, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate rock ship board is 680 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphate ore market operates steadily, and the factory price of 30% phosphate ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck board is 660-680 yuan / ton.

Yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus has continued to fall recently. Downstream purchase prices are depressed, and some manufacturers do not make external quotations temporarily, so the trading atmosphere in the venue is relatively stalemate. The overall market is dominated by stable consolidation and operation, with strong wait-and-see mood. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 30500-32000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 32000 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw materials has been lowered recently, and the cost support has declined. The phosphoric acid market is cautious and expected to be lowered to a certain extent.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market remained volatile and upward on January 17. The average market price in East China was 5258 yuan / ton, up 0.87% from the previous day and 34.84% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5330 and settled at 5332, down 10, or 0.19%.

In terms of supply, the production capacity of 1.2 million tons of hailun Petrochemical was restarted at the weekend, and the load of 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dalian unit returned to normal on the evening of January 14; Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton unit was overhauled for three weeks on January 3. There is an expectation of restart, PTA supply will increase, and the current start-up of the industry is around 77%. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, the 3 million ton PTA project of Yisheng new material 2# line has been basically completed and has not been put into operation yet.

Supported by tight supply, oil producing countries have difficulties in increasing production, and factors such as geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine have helped oil prices rise. As of January 14, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $83.82/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $86.06/barrel.

With the boost of raw materials, the downstream polyester market maintained a slight rise, but after the terminal weaving entered January, the startup load and new order receiving volume of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang gradually declined, and the weaving factories in Haining, Changshu and Xiaoshao basically ended. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 49%. It is expected that most domestic factories will enter the shutdown and vacation state from the 15th to the 20th of this month.

Business analysts believe that the current high volatility of crude oil and the cost support PTA. However, the demand side is weak, PTA slightly accumulates inventory, and the supply slightly exceeds the demand. It is expected that the upward trend of PTA market will be blocked.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 17, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 32340 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 14, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price 30600 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1740 yuan / ton, or 5.69%. Compared with January 1, 2022, the average price increased by 6540 yuan / ton, or 25.35%.

In early January, supported by tight supply and good demand, the domestic silicone DMC market rose steadily, with an increase of 18.60% in early January.

At the beginning of this week, the domestic organosilicon DMC market continued to rise. At the beginning of the week (17th), the large organosilicon DMC factories in Shandong continued to raise the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 1000 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC rose to 32000 yuan / ton. Many other monomer factories also began to receive orders in limited quantities, and the price actively followed the rise, The ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC is 31000-32000 yuan / ton. In late January, the early preparation of downstream products was completed one after another. However, supported by the tight supply of organosilicon DMC factories, the market price remained high, more factories had the right to speak, and the spot market price was stronger. On Tuesday (18th), some organosilicon DMC suppliers in Shandong significantly increased the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC, After the adjustment, the high-end price of silicone DMC reached 35000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 3000 yuan / ton. The limited order receiving price of other factories also continued to rise, with an increase range of about 500 yuan / ton. As of the 18th, the ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was around 31500-32000 yuan / ton, the high-end price was around 35000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 32340 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 5% in two days and more than 25% since the beginning of the month. At present, the downstream demand has slowed down, the trading atmosphere on the floor is OK, and the overall market still has good expectations.

In terms of index, the organosilicon DMC commodity index on January 17 was 163.20, up 5.47 points from yesterday, down 50.43% from the highest point of 329.21 in the cycle (2021-10-10), and up 131.82% from the lowest point of 70.40 on July 27, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, on the 17th, 44# metal silicon prices remained stable, with an average price of 20790 yuan / ton in the domestic market. At present, the trading of metal silicon market is slightly calm, the quotation of silicon factory has been relatively stable, and the downstream silicone has increased steadily, which has a positive impact on metal silicon to a certain extent. However, the social inventory accumulated in the early stage is rich, and the silicone enterprises mainly consume the existing inventory, As a result, the operating rate of silicon plants is low. Recently, some factories plan to reduce production. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will run smoothly before the Spring Festival.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the good pre-sale orders in the early stage continue to support the confidence of the silicone DMC industry. Although the downstream goods preparation has been completed one after another, it has little impact on the price support confidence of the main factories. The silicone DMC data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will continue to operate at a high level, and the downward space of the market is limited. More attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

DOP prices rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices rose sharply this week, and DOP prices rose. As of January 17, the DOP price was 10500 yuan / ton, up 4.48% from 10050 yuan / ton on January 10. This week, customers’ demand for goods preparation during the Spring Festival rose, and DOP prices rose sharply.

The price of isooctanol rose sharply

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol in China rose sharply this week, up 5.68%. Customers are actively preparing goods before the Spring Festival, the demand rises, and the price of isooctanol rises sharply. The price of isooctanol rose sharply and the cost of plasticizer DOP rose. With the basic end of goods preparation in the Spring Festival, the transaction of isooctanol stabilized. In the future, the price rise of isooctanol slowed down and the rising power of DOP weakened.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week. As of January 17, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7412.50 yuan / ton, up 2.24% from 7250.00 yuan / ton on January 7. When downstream customers prepare goods in the Spring Festival, the demand for phthalic anhydride rises briefly, the price of raw phthalic anhydride rises, which stimulates the price rise of phthalic anhydride, the price rise of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride, and the driving force of DOP rise increases.

PVC market shock adjustment

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 17, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 8330 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the PVC price of 8320 yuan / ton on January 1, it rose by 0.24%. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger, and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the rigid demand is reduced; The overall demand for plasticizer is insufficient, and the DOP market is relatively bad.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that this week, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated, the cost of DOP rose, the downstream procurement of goods preparation for the Spring Festival was active, and the price of DOP rose sharply. In the future, with the gradual end of goods preparation for the Spring Festival, customers’ purchasing enthusiasm declines, plasticizer demand is insufficient, DOP has limited room to rise. Similarly, the support for the continuous rise of raw materials is insufficient, DOP cost support is limited, DOP’s future rising power is weakened, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that DOP prices will rise first and then stabilize.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell in early January, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of January 14, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14425 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.86% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: the raw material styrene has experienced an overall shock and rise recently. The raw material pure benzene remained stable and the raw material support continued. Futures decreased slightly, with a bad mentality. The port inventory rose, and the demand in the North continued to weaken, and there began to be a confrontation between low supply and demand in some parts. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market mentality.

Acrylonitrile prices continued to decline this week. In the early stage, new equipment was shipped, and the supply increased, which was bad for the spot market. Downstream textile enterprises have holidays one after another. As soon as the load progress goes down, there is bargain hunting after the spot price is low in trading. However, the stock preparation before the festival is gradually over, and the volume of future transactions is expected to decrease. Enterprise inventory continues to rise, and the mentality of operators is mostly bearish.

This week, the domestic butadiene market stopped falling and rebounded. Due to the impact of health events, some parts of the northern region were out of stock. The butadiene market in East China is at a high level, the price of Sinopec has increased continuously, the intention of middlemen is at a high level, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. The external price rose this week, boosting the domestic spot price of butadiene. The actual order negotiation and transaction need to be followed up.

The overall upstream market of ABS is general, and the cost side support of ABS is acceptable. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises changed limited this week. In addition, there were new production capacity of polymerization plants in the early stage, the overall supply was high and the prognosis was abundant. The operating rate of the industry has been high for a long time, the inventory of enterprises and society has accumulated, and the willingness to reduce prices and take orders is obvious. On the downstream demand side, the stock preparation is coming to an end before the Spring Festival. In addition, some downstream enterprises have holidays one after another, and the inventory digestion is slow. The market is very bearish on the future market. In addition, the logistics began to slow down, the pressure on merchants increased, and let the single operation be the main.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early January, the overall trend of the three upstream materials is general, and the support for the cost side of ABS is acceptable. The domestic spot price is mainly affected by the high operating rate of the industry and insufficient demand follow-up. The market supply is sufficient but insufficient. It is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to fall before the Spring Festival.