1、 Price trend

The data showed that the price of caustic soda was mainly weak and stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 457.5 yuan / ton, down 24.07% compared with the same period last year. On February 25, the commodity index of caustic soda was 65.83, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 68.18% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 1.11% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the caustic soda market as a whole is weak, with weak atmosphere of conversation and flexible transaction. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong will be weak. At present, 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda is 390-470 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing demand is general, the market atmosphere is poor, and the transaction is light. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. After the Spring Festival, the prices of bulk commodities generally rose, and the upstream manufacturers had a clear mind to adjust the prices. Some caustic soda manufacturers adjusted the prices slightly, but the downstream acceptance was not high. On the whole, the market of caustic soda is still stable.

Upstream: in recent days, the liquid chlorine Market in Shandong has been weak, and the high-end price of liquid chlorine has been slightly reduced.

Downstream: the former and downstream enterprises mainly purchase from rigid demand, and the price increase of scattered caustic soda enterprises has little impact on the caustic soda market. It is reported that the mainstream manufacturer Shandong Jinling plans to stop for maintenance in March. The buyer and the seller have a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the two sides start a game.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on February 25, 2021, there were 1 commodity that rose, 0 commodity that fell, and 4 commodities that rose or fell to 0 in the price fluctuation list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities that rose were: light soda ash (4.77%); today’s average rise and fall was 0.95%.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. Recently, affected by the price increase of bulk goods, caustic soda manufacturers have also made a small price adjustment, but lack of downstream terminal support. Generally speaking, short-term caustic soda price or narrow fluctuation operation is dominant, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on February 25, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) from the mainstream manufacturers was 14466.67 yuan / ton, up 3.83% from 13933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 5.65% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Salicylic acid market rose this week, the price of raw material phenol rose suddenly, and the cost support was strong. The downstream factories also returned to the market one after another this week, and the demand increased. Last week, the market reaction was expected to be better. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the inquiry heat increased, the manufacturers actively replenished after the festival, and the manufacturers’ shipment was not pressured, and the price rose. As of February 25, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 13000-15000 yuan / ton, the prices rose, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 23000-25600 yuan / ton, the quotations were stable, and the quotations of sublimation grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton, the quotations were stable.

In terms of raw materials, the phenol market had a good start in the new year. On February 23, the reference price of phenol was 7920.00, up 19.64% compared with that on February 1 (6620.00). After the surge, there are many conflicts in the downstream. At present, the market offer is close to 8000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the port will continue to replenish next week. Although the supply side continues to replenish, the business community expects that the phenol market will continue to push up in a narrow range or stabilize at a high level under the overall higher situation.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on February 24, 2021, there were 45 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector which rose month on month, among which 11 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities increased were maleic anhydride (41.00%), crude benzene (20.18%) and 1,4-butanediol (14.93%). There were two kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with propane (- 0.44%) and styrene (- 0.35%) as the top two products. The average daily rise and fall was 2.25%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the cost support is strong, and downstream factories are returning to the market one after another this week. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the replenishment enthusiasm is improved, the manufacturers have no pressure to ship, and the price is rising. It is expected that the market will be stable and strong in the short term.

PA66 price high power price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market rose sharply in late February, and the spot prices of various brands grew fiercely. As of February 24, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 34500 yuan / ton, and the offer price of market merchants was about 38000 yuan / ton. The overwhelming rising atmosphere in the market made people think of the historical high price of PA66 in 2018.

Cause analysis

The main factor of the soaring market is the tightening of raw material supply. In the United States, due to the continuous influence of the cold current weather in the polar region, many enterprises, such as crude oil and chemical industry, have stopped production, and the devices are frequently overhauled. Among them, INVISTA, an international manufacturer of PA66 and its industrial chain related products, was seriously affected by the cold disaster in two adiponitrile and two hexanediamine factories in Texas, USA. In addition, alsander plant in Alabama, its adiponitrile and hexanediamine plants also declared force majeure. According to industry estimates, the above plants alone account for 65% and 50% of the global capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine. In the fourth quarter of last year, the upstream supply of PA66 began to show signs. Until the eve of the Spring Festival, the industry was still in a dilemma due to the high cost pressure. The production capacity loss caused by this disastrous weather has made the global PA66 raw material supply “snow on frost” in a very severe situation. Then came the frequent price increase letters of related products, coupled with the uncertain restart time of most production units. The business community speculated that the tight supply may take a long time to recover.

Although the establishment of China’s adiponitrile production line project in 2019 aims to break the pattern that adiponitrile is completely dependent on imports, the current development is still young, and the domestic production of PA66 is still highly dependent on imports of adiponitrile. The tightening of raw material supply for the domestic PA66 industry is no different from the “neck” status. Affected by it, domestic brands rose. Pingdingshan Shenma, Huafeng Group and other PA66 products rose by 2000 yuan / ton on the 23rd. At present, the rising atmosphere in the market is still strong. At present, the domestic polymerization plants mainly use the shipment to meet the early orders and complete the supply of old customers. Less spot on the floor, lead time growth, inventory worry free, manufacturers suspend external offer. The shortage of downstream non major customer factories may be even worse.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe: the current domestic market price of PA66 is rising sharply, and the business offer cycle is shortened. By the end of the 24th, this week’s increase has reached 15%. The demand of the automobile industry has picked up. The “black swan” event of the capacity loss of the upstream international large factories added to the cost support of PA66, and also became the cost pressure of PA66, making the price of PA66 extremely high. However, in the short term, the guidance for PA66 market is clear, and it is expected that PA66 will be strong. Explosive rise

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, since February, the price of hydrogen peroxide has continued to decline. In addition to the stable operation of hydrogen peroxide during the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide prices continued to decline before and after the festival. At the beginning of this month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1255 yuan / ton. On the 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 982 yuan / ton, down 21.71%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2020 to January 2021, it can be seen that the overall decline of hydrogen peroxide in 2020 was the main one, and the performance in the first quarter was poor. Hydrogen peroxide declined by more than 18% in February, and then it rose sharply in June. January 2021 fell more than January 2020, by nearly 10%. The decline of hydrogen peroxide expanded in February, mainly before and after the Spring Festival, with a decline of more than 20%.

Hydrogen peroxide keeps falling in February

Since February, the traditional off-season of hydrogen peroxide consumption has come. The terminal printing industry, paper industry, caprolactam and other manufacturers have stopped for maintenance. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined, and the rigid demand for hydrogen peroxide has decreased significantly. In addition, the logistics cost has increased and the transportation is limited, so the hydrogen peroxide market has entered the next channel.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, terminal demand was sluggish, and hydrogen peroxide fell by more than 11%. During the Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started up normally, supply increased and inventory rebounded. After the Spring Festival, the terminal papermaking and printing industries have not yet fully resumed operation, the terminal demand is still poor, and the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers are not confident in supporting the price. They continue to reduce the ex factory price, and the price continues to fall. As of the 23rd, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market has fallen below 1000 yuan, and the price has dropped to 982 yuan / ton, which is more than 21% lower than that in early February.

Mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in various regions of China

On February 23, the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui was about 1100 yuan / ton, a drop of 180 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong was 910 yuan / ton, a drop of 160 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei is 920 yuan / ton.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, believes that: in March, hydrogen peroxide terminal is still in the off-season of consumption, and the supply exceeds the demand, so it is difficult to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of isooctanol rose sharply in Shandong Province. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong increased from 11000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 15000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 36.36%. Compared with the same period last year, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol increased by 128.43%. Overall, the market of ISO octanol rose this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 110.29 on February 21.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the ex factory quotations of mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers in Shandong rose sharply this week: Jianlan chemical offered 15000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 4000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi offered 15000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 4000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 15000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, up 4000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week, The price has increased by 4000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol rose sharply this week, with the quoted price rising from 7105.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7540.91 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.14%, and a year-on-year increase of 19.44%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose sharply, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

ISO octanol downstream market, DOP factory prices rose sharply this week. DOP quotation increased from 10050.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 15.42%, 60.37% over the same period of last year. The price of DOP in downstream increased, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for octanol procurement increased, and the demand for ISO octanol was better.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. Isooctanol analysts from business news agency think: in late February, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly.

441 silicon price trend

After the year, the price of silicon metal rose slightly. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13316.67 yuan / ton on February 20, up 0.57% compared with the average market price of 13241.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of February (2.1).

On the 20th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12800-12900 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13000-13100 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13000-13100 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14000-14200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 13400-13500 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu is 13300-13500 yuan / ton .

After the festival, some silicon factories tentatively adjusted their prices upward, and some local markets slightly increased their prices.

After the festival, the domestic adipic acid market was stable and on the rise, with an increase of 0.5% in two working days after the festival. In some areas, the price of dealers was mainly up on a tentative basis, and the market price was uneven. Some East China manufacturers reported more than 9000, and there was speculation in the market, so there were few high price transactions. Market support factors mainly come from the cost side: pure benzene rose sharply after the festival, and rose by more than 8% in the two working days from the 18th to the 19th. Upstream costs are still supported.

In terms of local markets:

After the festival, the market of adipic acid in East China went up slightly, and dealers entered the market one after another. The market inquiry is normal, the high price transaction is not much, the current market quotation is uneven, the manufacturer inventory pressure is general, the shipment is normal, today’s market mainstream prices are: Shandong source 8400-8600 yuan / ton acceptance price, Jiangsu source acceptance price 8500-8700 yuan / ton. In the downstream, rigid demand is the main source, and the demand has stabilized. In the near future, the market is relatively stable, and the price has been adjusted in a narrow range.

The market of adipic acid in South China has risen slightly, and some dealers have made offers in the market one after another. At present, the price is still high. At present, the market quotation is chaotic, the high price transactions are rare, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure is general. They gradually transfer to the dealers’ inventory. Today’s market mainstream prices are: Shandong’s 8500-8700 yuan / ton acceptance price, Jiangsu’s 8600-8800 yuan / ton acceptance price, and most of them are downstream Just need to purchase.

In the future, adipic acid will be gradually affected by the cost factors in the later period, and there is still room for the price to go up. The supply and demand side is relatively stable, and the supply pressure is still relatively prominent, so it is difficult for the market to cater to the excessively high prices. It is expected that the market will be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the near future, but the rising space is uncertain.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, after new year’s day and the Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal manufacturers stop for maintenance, the demand turns weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market keeps falling. From January to early February, the market price of hydrogen peroxide is 1430 yuan / ton in early January, and 1115 yuan / ton on February 7, with the overall price dropping by 22.03%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from December 2020 to February 7, 2021, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide is rising steadily every week in December, with an increase of 1% – 2%, and the highest weekly increase is close to 3%. In January, the terminal demand became weak, and hydrogen peroxide started a decline mode, with a weekly decline of about one point. The hydrogen peroxide market dropped sharply near the end of the month, and the hydrogen peroxide price fell by 9.79% in January. Since February, the price of hydrogen peroxide has not stopped falling. As of February 7, the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped by 11.16% compared with the beginning of the month.

Terminal demand turns weak, hydrogen peroxide drops sharply before the festival

After the new year’s day, the hydrogen peroxide Market ended its boom in December, with all the positive factors and multiple negative factors. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal paper industry and caprolactam manufacturers stopped for maintenance in succession. Coupled with the Limited Logistics and environmental factors in Hebei, the demand for hydrogen peroxide has shrunk sharply, and the price has started to plunge. The mainstream quotation fell below 1200 yuan / ton from 1400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down more than 9%, and went straight to 10%.

Since February, the demand of terminal paper industry and caprolactam has declined, and hydrogen peroxide has started a sharp decline mode. During the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started up normally, the supply was loose, the manufacturers were not confident in supporting the price, and the price dropped sharply. The mainstream quotation has dropped to 1000 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 11% in just 7 days.

Mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in various regions of China

On February 7, the main manufacturers in Hebei had no quotation due to the influence of logistics factors; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui was about 1230 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong was 1000 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Hunan was 1500 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou was 1600 yuan / ton The price dropped by 50 yuan per ton.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: with the coming of off-season of terminal traditional consumption, hydrogen peroxide prices enter the downward channel, and it is expected that the rise after the festival will still be under pressure.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, domestic toluene prices continued to rise this week. The price of toluene was 4250 yuan / ton on January 31, and 4737.5 yuan / ton on this Sunday (February 7), up 11.47% from 487.5 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 450-500 yuan / ton. This week, the spot supply of toluene Market decreased, the supply of toluene is expected to shrink, and the price rose strongly. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the lower reaches leave the market one after another, the demand weakens and the actual transaction is limited. In terms of external market, toluene continued to rise this week. As of February 5, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $615 / T, up 11.21% on January 29, and that from East China was US $631.5/t, up 9.92% on January 29.

In terms of crude oil, due to bad weather in the United States, energy demand is expected to increase. In February, OPEC + cut production, global crude oil supply is expected to tighten, and the market is optimistic about the demand outlook. Brent crude oil rose nearly $60 / barrel. On January 29, Brent rose $4.64/barrel, or 8.42%; WTI rose $4.62/barrel, or 8.87%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12833.33 yuan / ton, up 0.52% over last week and 9.69% over the same period last year. Near the Spring Festival, dealers have a holiday one after another, the downstream buying follow-up is weak, and the market begins to enter a closed state. Affected by the supplier’s support for the market, the TDI market was reorganized and operated.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose slightly this week, with an average price of 5300 yuan / ton over the weekend, a year-on-year decline of 15.87%. This week, the domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $718-720 / T, FOB Korea and US $736-738 / T, CFR China. This week, PX’s external price rose, international crude oil price rose, and domestic PX market price rose.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream terminals have been shut down, logistics reduced, toluene market is expected to enter a period of stable price consolidation. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.

On February 5, the styrene market rose as a whole. Although the price of ethylene fell, the continued strength of crude oil led to the rise of pure benzene price, the support of styrene cost strengthened, and the high consolidation of night futures brought some support to the spot market. In terms of port inventory, the styrene inventory of East China’s main port this week was 109000 tons, an increase of 5500 tons over last week, a month on month increase of 5.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 51.8%. At present, the main ports in East China are experiencing seasonal accumulation, with 30800 tons of goods arriving next week. The overall arrival volume is at a low level, and the accumulation is less than expected. However, the overall operating rate of domestic styrene is relatively high, which is maintained at 80% – 85%, and the site supply is good. On the downstream side, the start-up of the three major downstream industries is still at a high level, which is conducive to the consumption of styrene in China. Although the start-up of EPS and PS will be significantly reduced near the Spring Festival, the impact of the domestic epidemic this year is relatively small, and the overall profit of the downstream industry is in an advantage. After the year, the downstream plants will start as scheduled, and the demand will recover from the expectation of rapid recovery. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the whole country advocates celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot, and some factories are expected to start work ahead of schedule. Based on the cost boost and low inventory support, it is expected that the market will be stronger in the short term and consolidation may be greater.

Today, the price of styrene in East China increased to around 7100-7250 yuan / ton. The price in Northeast China is around 6850 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 7300-7350 yuan / ton.