Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices in China fell sharply this week, with the biggest drop in non-ferrous products this week. As of June 21, the price of zinc was 20153.33 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from 20840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Zinc prices fell 15.56% over the same period last year. Overall, cobalt prices fell sharply this week, while zinc market was negative.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

This week, the price of zinc in LME market fell sharply. In June, the price of zinc dropped much more than that of other non-ferrous metals, and there was limited space for zinc price to fall. Inventory of zinc decreased and supply of zinc declined in the future, and zinc market had some momentum to rise.

Zinc prices fell in Shanghai. The June contract closed at 20425 yuan/ton, down 615 yuan/ton, or 3.01%. This week’s futures price of zinc is 21040 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 18575 yuan/ton. Shanghai futures zinc stocks fell. This week, futures zinc inventory growth, zinc supply increase, zinc market downward pressure still exists, but the recent zinc market demand warmed up, zinc inventory began to decline, zinc market in the future still has an upward momentum.

Data statistics:

The report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) shows that the global zinc supply shortage increased to 84,000 tons in April and 48,700 tons in March.

According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global zinc market was oversupplied by 4,600 tons in January-April 2019, compared with 67,000 tons in the whole year of last year. Global refined zinc production declined by 4% from January to April 2019, and consumption decreased only slightly from the same period last year. Apparent demand in Japan was 177,700 tons, down 2.7% from January to April 2018. Global zinc demand declined by 1,000 tons from January to April 2019. China’s apparent demand is 1969,000 tons, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. In the first four months of this year, the global supply shortage of zinc increased to 97,000 tons, compared with 53,000 tons in the same period last year.

The data show that the growth of global supply is declining faster than that of demand. Zinc supply shortage is increasing, and the driving force of Zinc market is greater.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: Shanghai futures market zinc ingot inventory rises, domestic zinc supply is sufficient, international zinc market zinc price fell this week, the domestic zinc price is negative, but statistics show that the global zinc supply shortage increased, good for the zinc market, zinc prices in the future have a driving force, expected future zinc price shocks rise.

On June 23, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 54.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.04% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 11.54% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton and the market price is small. The price of phthalic anhydride plant in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising slightly.

In recent years, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import market of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is stable. In recent years, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is low, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend remains low, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride prices temporarily stabilized, isooctanol prices rose, DOP costs rose. DOP price shocks maintain stability, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks maintain stability, DOP market mainstream transaction price around 7100 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure weakens, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices fell first and then rose this week (June 16-June 21)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 4600 yuan/ton, up 1.47% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Gasoline market prices fell first and then rose. Some operators started replenishment operations, and the domestic MTBE market improved somewhat during this period.

Industry chain: At present, domestic gasoline market liquidity has maintained a downturn, but in the middle of this week, supported by the surge in crude oil, market mindset has improved slightly, downstream replenishment willingness has increased, MTBE manufacturers’quotation has rebounded slightly under the improvement of shipment. MTBE market prices also rose this week from a decline.

3. Future Market Forecast

MTBE product analysts from the Energy Branch of Business Association believe that the demand for gasoline has not improved yet, but MTBE manufacturers still have a lot of intention to push up, combined with the rising price of crude oil market, MTBE market prices are expected to rise steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, zinc ingot stocks in Shanghai futures market have soared recently, and zinc supply has risen. Affected by this, domestic zinc prices have fallen sharply and continued to fall sharply in June. As of June 17, the price of zinc was 20840.00 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from 21250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices fell 14.63% over the same period last year. Overall, in June, zinc market supply growth demand is limited, zinc market is negative.

II. Market Trend Analysis

As can be seen from the chart, the inventory of zinc ingots in LME market fell slightly in June, the supply of zinc ingots in the global zinc market was basically stable, while the demand remained unchanged, and the price of zinc was insufficient; the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market rose sharply, the supply of zinc in domestic market rose sharply, and the price of zinc was obviously short. Without a big change in the demand of domestic zinc market, the supply rose sharply dragged down the price of zinc. The international zinc price has fallen sharply, and the downward pressure is greater.

Policies and regulations:

On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which takes the structural reform of the supply side as the main line, and focuses on promoting the upgrading of automobile, household appliances and consumer electronics products from four aspects of “consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness”. Promote the recycling of old products. It is expected that the demand for zinc ingots in automotive and household appliances industries will rise sharply in the future, and the demand of zinc market will rise in the future, which will benefit the price of zinc obviously. However, the impact of policies and regulations has a certain lag, and the momentum of zinc market’s rise in the short term is insufficient.

Zinc production capacity:

Data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Organization predict that China, the world’s largest producer of zinc, will increase production by 5.3% this year and refined zinc production by 3.6%. But according to the data, the actual output of refined zinc in China dropped by 0.67% in the first four months of this year. The main reason for the decline in production is that some large factories are relocated due to environmental protection problems, which is related to the sudden overhaul of smelters, but not to small zinc smelters. With the weakening of environmental protection and relocation in the future, zinc production is bound to rebound, and domestic zinc production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year.

Statistics of automobile sales

On June 12, the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the “China Automobile Association”) released data showing that in May 2019, domestic automobile sales completed 1913,000 vehicles, down 16.4% from the same period last year. Passenger car sales were 1.511 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. From January to May, automobile sales totaled 10.266 million vehicles, down 13% year-on-year; from January to May, passenger car sales totaled 8.399 million vehicles, down 15.2% year-on-year, a slight increase over January to April. From January to May 2019, car sales declined by 15.8%, 13.77%, 5.2%, 14.6% and 16.4% respectively. China Automobile Association said that due to the downward pressure of macro-economy and the early implementation of the Sixth Emission Standard in some regions, automobile production and sales are still at a low level. It is expected that in the second half of the year, with the increasing number of car models meeting the Sixth National Standard and the continuing effect of a series of policy measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, the car market will all improve. Automobile sales fell, demand for zinc fell, domestic zinc price shocks fell, and zinc prices were negative in the future.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business associations, believes that the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market has risen sharply and the supply of zinc in China is abundant, but zinc price has a favorable negative effect, and the demand of zinc market is slightly inadequate due to the continuous decline in automobile sales. The pressure of zinc market’s decline remains. However, with the introduction of the National Implementation Plan for Promoting the Upgrading and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods (2019-2020), It stimulates consumption and has a better demand for zinc in the future. There is space for zinc in the future. However, due to the lagging influence of policies and regulations, the outbreak point of zinc demand rise or the lack of momentum for short-term zinc price rise in the second half of the year. It is expected that the fluctuation of zinc price will fall in June, and the downward trend will be alleviated or warmed up at the end of June.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The average weekend price is 1966.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early weekend price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 2.45% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is limited and domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is less. However, due to more shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start-up is limited, and the price trend in the field remains weak. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was 1850-2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and the cancellation of gas restriction, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the downstream has decreased, but the prices of the upstream raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia Market are declining, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable affected by raw material prices.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend, and this week’s price trend is stable; the upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend is slightly declining, the market price of liquid ammonia by the end of the weekend is 3286.67 yuan/ton, this week’s price is lower, the upstream raw material price trend is low for ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate Market is weakening, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is increasing, the market of nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains low.

Industry: In recent years, ammonium nitrate Market in general, downstream civil explosion industry fully parked, but the upstream raw material market price slightly declined, ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market price decline, but the downstream demand is poor, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the later period.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The average price of epichlorohydrin was 14100.00 yuan per ton (including taxes) as of June 14, up 1.20% compared with the beginning of the week, according to the data from the business associations’list. At present, the market price of epichlorohydrin in China is 13500 yuan per ton to 15000 yuan per ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: The domestic market of epichlorohydrin is rising this week. At present, the spot supply is tight, manufacturers offer high, low-price supply is difficult to find, downstream negotiation price tentative rise, but the actual follow-up is limited. At present, the mainstream quotation in the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton, which is delivered by acceptance. Shandong mainstream market quotation is 14300 yuan/ton, self-raised. The mainstream quotation in Huangshan area is 14500 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene (Shandong) prices have risen rapidly in recent years and then stabilized and fell slightly. The downstream epoxy resin cost pressures remain unchanged, and the focus of the manufacturer’s discussion is rising.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by high-level finishing in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data from the commodity list of business associations, the domestic formaldehyde market fell this week, with the average price of formaldehyde at the beginning of the week (June 2) being 1206.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week (June 6), the average price of formaldehyde at the weekend (June 6) being 193.33 yuan/ton, down by 1.11%, and the current price fell by 21.75% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic formaldehyde market prices fell. At the weekend, Hebei mainstream factory quotation was about 1130 yuan/ton, South China mainstream factory quotation was about 1260 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream factory quotation was 1120 yuan/ton, Jiangsu mainstream factory quotation was 1350 yuan/ton. Tianning Chemical 80,000 tons of formaldehyde plant was restarted, the supply of formaldehyde in the formaldehyde market was still acceptable, downstream manufacturers were affected by environmental protection, the start-up rate was reduced, and the price of formaldehyde fell.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market was affected by macro and port inventory. The price at the beginning of the week was 2334.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week was 2234.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.28%. No support for formaldehyde products, formaldehyde manufacturers have a general mentality, downstream maintenance just need to purchase, on-site trading is more cautious, formaldehyde prices fell.

3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market has been declining in recent days, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream start-up rate is general. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of business, social and Chemical Bureau expect that domestic formaldehyde prices or weak consolidation will dominate in the near future.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak and rigid. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the BDO price was 9064 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 1.81% in the month. Prices fell by 24.48% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In May, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak and rigid. At the end of April and the beginning of May, the pre-maintenance plants were restarted one after another, while the short-term shutdown and maintenance of the BDO plant in Meizhou Bay, Fujian Province, during May 1, resulted in a relatively stable overall start-up load. In mid-January, Xinjiang Tianye BDO plant routine parking overhaul is expected to reduce the supply of goods in Xinjiang for about 20 days; downstream Yizheng Chemical Fiber PBT plant has been put into operation successfully, but considering the weak market of PBT, will adopt the “stop old and open new” mode, the overall demand for BDO growth is not obvious. In late January, due to rising raw material prices and serious cost inversion, some factories raised spot offer, but downstream demand continued to be depressed, limited digestibility, strong resistance to high prices. At the same time, due to cost pressure, Kaixiang PBT plant will stop, the demand for self-use BDO will decrease, and the market supply may increase. Under the pressure of supply and demand, middlemen follow up cautiously, keep the pace of shipment, and negotiate with the market. Although the long-rumored new BDO device failed to be put into operation this month, it has had a certain impact on the market mentality. At present, the favorable market support is not obvious and the rising power is insufficient. The focus is on whether the new PBT device in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang can be put into operation normally and whether the PBT device other than Kaixiang can be operated under normal pressure. In June, the domestic BDO market will still be weak and stable under the supply-demand pull-saw game, focusing specifically on device dynamics and downstream PBT demand.

Industry chain: raw materials: methanol: northwest methanol market rose this month, most of the shipments in Inner Mongolia this month were purchased by traders, due to the news of olefin restart in Jiutai and Datang, which brought some support. Guanzhong’s overall shipment is good this month. At the end of the month, due to a large number of orders not issued, the price was lowered. Although the market was still rising this month, there was no substantial increase in downstream demand in Lianghu, East China and the local market. In the future, the market has little chance to rise sharply, mainly by shocks. Calcium carbide: Domestic downstream PVC repair enterprises will start in early June, but the rest of the PVC manufacturers will be repaired soon, calcium carbide demand growth is limited, upstream active shipment. On the upstream, the price of orchid charcoal is high, and the profit of calcium carbide is compressed. Under the constant pressure of the market, the price of calcium carbide will be lower next month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

The domestic BDO market is stable and the supply of spot goods is abundant. However, due to the large environmental impact downstream, it is difficult to increase the overall demand, so it is more difficult to enter the market to counter the price and make up for the warehouse at the lowest price. Although the factory offer is firm, but based on the contradiction between downstream demand and supply and demand, the pull-up appears to be “more than one’s heart but less than one’s strength”. At present, the main focus of the market is in the downstream PBT industry. Whether it can produce under pressure is the key to the trend of BDO. On the whole, the cost support is not strong. The market news is not clear yet, and the good support is scarce. Under the situation of unbalanced supply and demand, is BDO Factory Limited production and guaranteed price or continue production to let it go down? These are all unknowns. In view of the uncertain information released by the market, BDO analysts of business associations expect that the operators dare not rush to operate, stable prices are still the mainstream, and the domestic BDO market is weak and stable in the short term, paying particular attention to the downstream PBT demand.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic 1 Lead Ingot Market fluctuated lower. The average price of domestic market was 16762.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.36%.

The lead commodity index on June 3 was 98.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.43% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 32.11% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: The spot lead market in eastern China has declined as a whole, mainly affected by environmental protection in May. 25 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government have been affected by the shutdown of some manufacturers, and some manufacturers have been repaired. The overall market is weak. The price fell below 16,000 yuan in the middle of the month, and recovered to 16,000-16200 range after 15,950 yuan/ton hovering.

Supply and demand: According to data released Wednesday by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global lead market oversupply expanded from 3,600 tons in February to 10,300 tons in March.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on May 22, the global lead market supply gap was 119,000 tons in January-March 2019 and 278,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. Total inventory at the end of March was 7,000 tons lower than at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to March 2019, the global production of refined lead was 3.09 million tons, an increase of 6.6% over the same period last year. From January to March, China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 1486,000 tons, an increase of 242,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. From January to March, the US’s apparent demand increased by 10,000 tons over the same period last year. In March 2019, global refined lead production was 104.89 million tons and consumption was 109.93 million tons.

Domestic events:

Battery industry is at high risk! Eight lead-acid plants were shut down in one month, and the quality of lithium batteries was mixed. The introduction of the new national standard for electric vehicles is a fatal blow to the whole vehicle enterprise. A large number of businessmen shut down and the speed of brand shuffling is accelerated. But for the battery industry, the most important part of electric vehicles, there are two days of ice and fire.

Shanghai Municipal Lead Accumulator Regional Collection and Transportation Pilot Work Program: Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment and Municipal Transportation Bureau recently issued the “Shanghai Municipal Lead Accumulator Regional Collection and Transportation Pilot Work Program”. According to the plan, by 2020, the city’s lead accumulator centralized collection and trans-regional transport system was initially established to effectively prevent and control the environmental risk of waste lead accumulator. The standard recovery rate of lead-acid batteries (i.e. the ratio of the collection of waste lead-acid batteries to the renewal sales of lead-acid batteries) is over 40%.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In May, Lun lead fell, while Shanghai lead slightly declined. With the reduction of demand from recycling manufacturers, the price of waste batteries also declined. With the arrival of the batteries replacement season in June, and many manufacturers will resume production, the willingness of batteries to purchase raw materials will also be better than the previous period. It is expected that the lead market will be mainly shocked in June.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone shook. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 8 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8 600 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price dropped by 2.99% in the week, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market price rose slightly this week, then decreased slightly. Pure benzene market is weak and rising, and cost support is stable. On May 22, Bank of China of Jining parked and repaired but exported normally. The volume of cyclohexanone exported from western Shandong decreased slightly, and the spot production of cyclohexanone decreased slightly. In addition, the purchasing volume of chemical fibre factories downstream last week was still acceptable. Traders were in a high mood, actively purchasing in large quantities, manufacturers and markets took advantage of increased opportunities, and the price of East China market rose to 8950 yuan/ton cash delivery. During the week, the downstream caprolactam market continued to be weak. The caprolactam manufacturers with cyclohexanone gap still had production lines in the parking maintenance stage. The overall demand for chemical fibers was relatively small. The downstream market was not confident enough in the future market. Market shipments were blocked. Market prices began to yield slightly. The market mentality was pessimistic and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price of pure benzene in East China rose slightly, mainstream negotiations in East China in 4500-4550 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream negotiations in 4250-4380 yuan/ton. Within a week, the number of ships arriving at the port decreased, and the inventory of East China Port decreased slightly to about 230,000 tons. Caprolactam: This week, domestic caprolactam liquid spot market declines slowed. As for raw materials, the price of pure benzene has little fluctuation, basically maintained at 4450-4500 yuan/ton, which has little effect on caprolactam; the price of cyclohexanone has risen slightly this week, and the cost pressure of manufacturers that take cyclohexanone outside is still high. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of caprolactam has decreased this week. In Shanxi Lubao 100,000-ton plant parking overhaul, Xuyang 100,000-ton plant parking overhaul, Yangquan 200,000-ton plant resumption of production, Hubei Sanning 140,000-ton plant short shutdown for three days, the spot supply has decreased, and some factories have low-price mentality.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term cyclohexanone plant silver May 22 parking overhaul, planned to start in early June, expected next week spot export volume will increase slightly, in addition to the current manufacturers still have spot inventory pressure. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, there is no plan to restart Nanjing Dongfang in June. Yongrong cyclohexanone plant starts normally and can basically meet the demand for caprolactam. In the short term, Shenyuan’s purchase of cyclohexanone is unlikely. Shandong Haili’s 200,000-ton caprolactam plant has maintenance plan in early June, while cyclohexanone is still unclear. Overall, however, the supply of cyclohexanone may exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, a business firm, expect the market to remain weak next week.