Since the second half of the month, asphalt prices in Shandong have significantly decreased. From a national perspective, the decline is more pronounced in North China. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong was 3632 yuan/ton on August 15th, and dropped to 3502 yuan/ton on August 26th, a decrease of 3.57%.

Since the second half of the month, crude oil has experienced a significant decline followed by a slight rebound, but the overall downward trend is difficult to support on the cost side. In addition, refinery production profits have been restored, and the enthusiasm for production has increased, resulting in a significant increase in supply and a negative impact on the market. In the short term, there is still pressure on the asphalt market, and the spot market continues to operate weakly.

During the rainy season, some areas experience significant rainfall, which hinders the demand for essential goods. Traders and deadline traders mainly offer low-priced shipments.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the short-term supply remains stable, and in terms of demand, the rainy weather will still intermittently affect the demand in some areas. There are unlikely to be favorable factors in the short-term market, and market prices are also difficult to break through. September is approaching, and the operating rate of local refining enterprises may further increase, which will still be dominated by negative factors in the market. The demand side is concerned about the impact of weather conditions on demand growth, and overall, supply and demand will increase in September.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there has been a rebound in the aniline market recently, with improved purchasing power and mainstream market prices ranging from 10300 to 10400 yuan/ton. In the early stage, the price of aniline was relatively high, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In order to stimulate sales, mainstream factories lowered prices and effectively reduced inventory. At the same time, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a strong trend, and the aniline market stopped falling and rebounded. The factory’s sales were smooth, and the market mentality improved. Downstream actively entered the market, and it is expected that the market will mainly digest the increase in the short term, and the market will operate smoothly.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices fluctuated downward again this week (8.10-8.16) and continued to weaken. As of the weekend, spot nickel was reported at 129683 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.51% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35%.

Macroscopically, the US PPI in July increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with an estimated 2.3%, compared to the previous value of 2.6%. The consumer survey report released by the Federal Reserve shows that US consumers’ one-year and five-year inflation expectations remained stable in July, while three-year inflation expectations fell sharply, reaching the lowest 2.3% since records began in 2013. Household spending expectations were weak, and unemployment expectations unexpectedly improved. The data released on Tuesday showed that the decline in bank loans in China in July exceeded expectations, reaching the lowest level in nearly 15 years, raising concerns about the demand outlook. The market expects the trend of basic metals to be suppressed as a result.

Supply side: Global pure nickel production continues to increase. It is reported that in July 2024, the national refined nickel production reached 28900 tons, a month on month increase of 8.2% and a year-on-year increase of 33.87%. The expectation of nickel oversupply remains unchanged, and global inventories continue to accumulate. As of August 16th, LME nickel inventory was 114060 tons, with a further increase of 1656 tons compared to the previous week; Shanghai nickel inventory is 18111 tons, an increase of 1612 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand, alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, and there is good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Due to price fluctuations and abundant supply of goods, enterprises purchase at low prices. Stainless steel prices are running at a low level. On August 16th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12707.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month. Stainless steel factories have high expectations for the peak season of gold, silver, and silver, but the pressure of supply and demand restricts the upward space of prices.

Market forecast: Under the current macro background, demand remains weak, and there is still oversupply and high inventory pressure in the nickel market. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on August 14th was 906 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from the average price of 920 yuan/ton on August 7th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively low, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises is relatively high. The enthusiasm for market procurement has weakened, and on-site trading is weak. At present, the granule factory has a large inventory and the shipping market is not good. The export market has not improved, and the confidence of exporters has been dampened. As of August 14th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 870 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 880-950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been fluctuating and declining recently. At present, the domestic and international market conditions are not good, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will continue to operate weakly and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8090 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 7796 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 1.94% during the week.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell. Overall, there has been a shift in market sentiment this week, with price flexibility adjustments within the market. Some factories have foreign trade orders to execute, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the factories. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised. Some holders have tight inventory, unable to sell at low prices, and offer at high prices. The prices of some holders who mainly focus on profit taking are still mostly maintained. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 7600-7700 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8100-8200 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 8200-8500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 6962.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6802.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.3%. At present, the inventory at the port continues to accumulate, and the overall trading atmosphere downstream is not high.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has experienced a decline this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 7135.75 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 7000.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.89%. At present, enterprises are actively shipping, offering discounts and making downstream purchases at low prices according to demand. It is expected that the market will be more cautious in the short term, and market prices will be weak.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fluctuated and fallen this week, and there is a lack of clear guidance on the market news. From the supply side, the manufacturer’s operating rate is not high, and there are foreign trade orders being executed, so the factory does not have obvious inventory pressure. From a demand perspective, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, with a focus on essential needs. There is still a lack of substantial positive guidance in the market, and it is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will mainly fluctuate, with attention paid to changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market in July first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17683 yuan/ton to 17616 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.38% and a year-on-year price increase of 7.2%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market continued to decline due to weak downstream demand and sluggish upstream sales, resulting in a weak MDI market.

In mid month, with the decline in MDI prices, downstream procurement entered the market at a low price, and under the game of supply and demand, prices entered the stage of maintaining stability and consolidation.

In the latter half of the month, there were frequent reports of upstream maintenance, tightening supply, and prices began to rebound at the bottom. With prices rising, trading volume in the market followed slowly. At the same time, the cost of aniline and pure benzene both experienced varying degrees of decline, with clear bearish constraints. The market stopped rising and stabilized, and the market remained stable until the end of the month.

On the supply side, the Wanhua plant in Yantai will be shut down for maintenance on July 16th, lasting about 45 days. On July 26th, the Dongcao Rui’an plant was shut down for maintenance, which lasted for about 35 days. Some devices maintained low load operation, which effectively boosted the MDI market in late July.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has been declining. As of July 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8408 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is accelerating its decline, falling below 10000 yuan. As of July 31st, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9825 yuan/ton. The negative impact of cost factors on aggregated MDI.

On the demand side, downstream markets are slowly following suit, but with prices rebounding after falling, the buying atmosphere in the market has improved, resulting in an increase in transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has continued to follow up, while other industries have been slow to follow up, and the overall market is driven by a strong trend. The short-term aggregation of MDI demand is influenced by favorable factors.

The future forecast shows limited follow-up from downstream demand, market digestion of price increases, significant cost side bearish constraints, and gradual weakening of supply side support. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be weak and mainly follow suit.