1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product source: business community commodity analysis system)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of April 29, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18900 yuan / ton, up 0.18% compared with the previous trading day, up 0.53% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 2.58% compared with March 29.

This week, the market of propylene oxide was on the high side. Recently, propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure to support the market mentality, and the downstream is cautious about high price raw materials. At present, the pace of market trading is slowing down. On the 29th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 18600-18700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in East China is around 18700-18900 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent price of propylene oxide of some enterprises is summarized as follows: the quotation of Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. (GB 99.9) is 19600 yuan / ton, the quotation of Dongying yingkai Trading Co., Ltd. (quality grade: superior product) is 18800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. (quality grade: superior product) is 18700 yuan / ton, The actual transaction price of different brands, specifications and products is mainly through negotiation.

As of April 28, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province has declined steadily. According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. From the 6th, the price rose steadily. From the 16th, the price rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton every day. From the 23rd, the price began to stabilize. On the 26th, the price fell about 50 yuan / ton, and on the 27th and 28th, it fell about 150 yuan / ton every day. At present, the market transaction is between 8150 yuan / ton and 8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8250 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 28, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18100 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of this week; As of April 28, the market center of soft foam polyether in Shandong Province moved upward, the price of raw material propylene oxide was high, the cost was under pressure, some manufacturers’ offers rose, and the procurement of downstream enterprises decreased. On April 28, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether in Shandong Province was around 18200-18400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business news agency, propylene oxide is currently in weak operation, and liquid chlorine is mainly stable, which has limited impact on propylene oxide. Propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure to support the market, and the downstream new orders perform generally. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be in high-level consolidation and operation, and the specific trend is more, so we still need to pay attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

In April, 85% formic acid Market in China went down. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of April 27, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2433.33 yuan / ton, down 18.44% compared with the price at the beginning of the month and up 5.80% compared with the same period last year.

In April, 85% of the domestic formic acid market was weak as a whole, and the prices of manufacturers and dealers were reduced to varying degrees. In the first ten days of April, the price of formic acid was lower than that of the previous period. The downstream purchased on demand, and the shippers were active in shipping. In the middle of April, the price of raw materials was weak, and the cost support was insufficient, which dragged the formic acid market downward. In the last ten days, due to the high inventory, the shippers’ mentality was under pressure, and the market continued to decline.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of formic acid of enterprises at the end of April was summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. was 2300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Shandong tamasuk Chemical Co., Ltd. was 2300 yuan / ton; Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. offers industrial grade 85% formic acid at 2300 yuan / ton, Liaocheng transportation group Hongmao Materials Co., Ltd. offers industrial grade 85% formic acid at 2250 yuan / ton, Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. offers industrial grade 85% formic acid at 2600 yuan / ton. The spot price of merchants depends on the market. The actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications and products are mainly negotiated.

For upstream caustic soda, on April 27, the price of caustic soda in Shandong remained weak, and now the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future; The reference price of upstream liquid ammonia was 3890.00 on April 27, which was 1.19% lower than that on April 1 (3936.67); On April 27, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. The market of sulfur in the upstream was recently consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was good. However, the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid rose slightly in the future; The reference price of upstream methanol was 2565.00 on April 27, up 7.89% compared with 2377.50 on April 1.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that at present, 85% of the domestic industrial formic acid market is weak and stable, the support from the cost side is acceptable, the market supply side is abundant, and the procurement of downstream enterprises is just in demand. It is expected that the formic acid market will consolidate in the short term, mainly digest the inventory, and pay more attention to the changes of raw material prices and market information guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose sharply on the 27th, with spot copper price of 72011.67 yuan / ton, up 2.96% from 69940 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, 24.25% from the beginning of the year, and 67.59% from a year earlier. The spot copper price broke through the 70000 mark, reaching a new high in the past decade. Shanghai copper rose 3.01% to close at 72480 yuan / ton. International copper prices also rose 3.18%, closing at 64600 yuan / ton at 3 p.m.

The weakening of the US dollar, the improvement of the global economic outlook, the recovery of demand, the strong demand for goods preparation before the May Day holiday, and the slow rise of stock prices in domestic and foreign exchanges have all contributed to the revival of copper prices. In addition, Chile, which accounts for a quarter of the world’s copper supply, was threatened by a strike. Port workers called for a general strike, which intensified concerns about copper supply and led to a sharp rise in copper prices. As of April 25, China’s spot copper processing (TCS) rose $2 for the first time since August, but remained low overall. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (April 26): 4250.00 yuan / ton

On April 26, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose by 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.59%, compared with the quotation on April 23. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement rose.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly: the price quoted by the manufacturer is about 4300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of caustic soda is mainly stable for the time being. From the beginning of this week to Shandong, the average market price is about 460 yuan / ton, down 9.36% compared with the same period last year. On April 24, the commodity index of caustic soda was 66.19, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 68.00% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 1.66% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market operation is dominant. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-590 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is general, and the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

Upstream: the overall performance of domestic liquid chlorine market is strong this week, and the liquid chlorine market is still strong supported by the strong demand of downstream. Downstream: from the downstream of caustic soda to the end of demand, aluminum, paper and other industries adhere to the demand-based procurement, a strong wait-and-see attitude. The price of caustic soda lacks strong support, and the price of caustic soda is weak.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 16th week of 2021 (4.19-4.23), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (2.87%) and PVC (0.28%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.63%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda enterprises are not warm in shipment, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to fluctuate slightly in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise this week. As of the weekend, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6600 yuan / ton, up 4.35% compared with the price of 6325 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 30.37% year on year. In recent years, the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, the spot supply in the field was normal and the sales situation was good.

In the near future, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market continues to rise, the goods in the phthalic anhydride market are in normal condition, the demand of downstream has not changed much in the near future, the price of phthalate increases, the plasticizer market is higher, the upstream and downstream market improves, which is favorable for the domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the domestic phthalic anhydride price is higher. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have maintained a low level of construction, with the site starting rate of about 60%, domestic supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, spot phthalic anhydride in the site is slightly tense, market price is higher, downstream plasticizer industry market has increased, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has increased, with limited high-end transactions in the field. The main trend of the talks on the neighboring French sources in East China is 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 6300-6500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan / ton. The waiting mentality in the phthalic anhydride market remains. The downstream purchasing is mainly on demand. In the near future, the trend of DOP in the downstream has risen, which has affected the continuous increase of the market price of phthalic anhydride.

The domestic price of phthalate rose this week, with the price of 5900 yuan / ton on the site and the price increase of 5.36% this week. The rise of domestic phthalate price is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import of phthalates in port area is higher, the quantity of imported phthalates in port area is still acceptable. In recent years, the port’s phthalate inventory has not changed much, and the price of the external market of o-benzene fluctuates, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, In detail, the price of phthalic acid increased slightly, the price of raw materials increased, which was favorable for domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the recent market price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly.

The market price of DOP downstream of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 12125 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with an increase of 2.54% this week. The equipment of DOP enterprises in the site was temporarily stable, DOP supply was stable, PVC price fluctuated and recovered, and downstream demand was stable. The downward pressure of plasticizer DOP still has the rising power. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 12000-12500 yuan / ton. The demand of domestic phthalic anhydride is not changed much, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising.

In general, the crude oil price has declined slightly in the near future, and the downstream plasticizer industry has a rising trend. The DOP price trend is slightly higher, and the price of phthalate will rise slightly. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

According to Xinhua news agency, the International Energy Agency (IEA), headquartered in Paris, France, released its 2021 global energy review report on the 20th. It is estimated that the global energy demand will increase by 4.6% in 2021, and the global energy related carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 4.8%.

According to the report, global energy demand declined by 4% in 2020, which was the biggest drop since the Second World War, which was affected by COVID-19. According to the latest statistics of global energy demand in the first quarter of this year, the epidemic continues to affect energy demand. However, the IEA predicts that global energy demand will increase by 4.6% in 2021 compared with last year as countries lift anti epidemic restrictions and usher in economic recovery.

Specifically, in 2021, the global average daily oil demand is expected to increase by 5.4 million barrels over the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 6%; driven by the power industry, the global coal demand is expected to rebound strongly this year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; driven by the Asian and Middle East markets, the global natural gas demand will also rise by 3.2% over the same period last year.

This year, global renewable power generation will grow by more than 8% year-on-year and is expected to reach 8300 terawatt hours (TWH), the largest annual increase since the 1970s. Solar photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation will account for two-thirds of the growth of renewable energy power generation. This year, China’s renewable energy generation is expected to account for about half of the world’s incremental capacity, followed by the United States, the European Union and India.

The IEA said global electricity demand is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year in 2021, driven by increased economic activity and rapid economic growth in major emerging economies such as China.

This year, global nuclear power generation is expected to increase by 2% over the previous year. During the second half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, there will be seven new nuclear reactors on-line and three decommissioned; by the end of 2021, there will be up to 10 nuclear reactors connected to the power grid.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2021, with the surge in demand for coal, oil and natural gas and the economic recovery, global energy related carbon dioxide emissions will increase by more than 1.5 billion tons, or 4.8%, compared with the previous year, which is close to the peak from 2018 to 2019.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (April 20): 12440 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 12440 yuan / ton on the 20th, down 1.74% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of butadiene is at a low level, and the cost is short. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of April 20, the butadiene price was 6696 yuan / ton, down 9.69% compared with the beginning of the month. On the other hand, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing is not high recently, and some businesses ship at low prices. According to the business news agency, as of April 20, the market offer of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber declined slightly. The mainstream offer of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Qixiang was 12100-12200 yuan / ton, that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Qilu was 12400-12600 yuan / ton, and that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Daqing was 12200-12500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: low price of raw materials, soft demand. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak in the future.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price ( April 19th ) ：13233 . 33 yuan / ton

On April 19, the ex factory quotation of ISO octanol in Shandong increased by 333% compared with the quotation on April 16 . 33 yuan / Tons, up 2 . fifty-eight %。 The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the octanol cost supported well, the downstream DOP market was consolidated at a high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good, and the octanol supply was normal.

Recently, the ex factory price of ISO octanol in Shandong may rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is 13300 yuan / About a ton.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market weakened during the week (4.12-4.16), with the price at 13300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 12960 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an overall decline of 2.56%.

This week (4.12-4.16) the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market weakened, and the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of some manufacturers decreased significantly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of April 16, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company was 12500 yuan / ton.

The supply side dropped slightly, supporting the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business news agency, Maoming and Yangzi Shunding units continue to shut down, and the 150000 T / a Shunding units in Zhongshan and Yanshan started to shut down for about 40 days in early April. Although the load of Jinzhou, Dushanzi and other units increased, the overall output of Shunding rubber decreased compared with the previous period.

Unit capacity and start up

Yantai Haopu: 60000t / a normal operation

Shandong Wanda: 50000 T / a normal operation

Qixiang Tengda: 50000 tons / year

Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. ’70000t / a’ normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 150000t / a > normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 100000 tons / year

Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 150000t / A

Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. $100000 / year

Huayu Rubber Co., Ltd. < 80000 tons / year

Tairubber Yubu: 72000 / year, normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 30000 / year, normal operation

Xinjiang Lande normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. ~ 160000 / year

Liaoning Shengyou: 30000 / year

Jinzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 30000 / year, normal operation

Shandong Chinachem will stop at 100000 yuan / year and plan to restart in June

Zhejiang ChuanHua is in normal operation with annual output of 100 000 yuan, and it is planned to be overhauled in May

After the sharp drop in raw material prices, there was a slight rise this week, and the cost stopped falling. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 16, the butadiene price was 6696 yuan / ton, up 2.90% from 6507 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 14.80% from March 31.

On the demand side, the downstream demand is still rigid demand. It is understood that the tire operating rate is still high this week: the semi steel tire operating rate is around 75%, and the full steel tire operating rate is around 78%.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that although the price of raw material butadiene has dropped by about 14% since the end of March, and the lower cost side has led to the downward risk of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, at present, there is little pressure on the supply and demand fundamentals of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and the rebound of crude oil is supported by the cost side, it is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will stop falling and stabilize in the future.