According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 7012.50 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.60% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%. After the holiday, phthalic anhydride customers replenished their inventory, and the price of phthalic anhydride briefly increased. As the replenishment ended, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell; In October, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market were limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In October, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants increased, and about 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers started production. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers remained stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of ortho benzene was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82% from the price of ortho benzene on October 1st, which was 7100 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride has increased.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen after rising this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9138.75 yuan/ton, which increased first and then decreased by 1.67% compared to the daily price of plasticizer DOP of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the daily price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell by 2.66% to 9388.75 yuan/ton. The economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a significant rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. DOP manufacturer’s order sales, downstream demand procurement enthusiasm is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated slightly.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at high loads, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have increased their operating load, and phthalic anhydride is urgently needed for procurement. The supply and demand have both increased, with the increase in supply exceeding the increase in demand, resulting in a decrease in costs. It is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and decline in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (10.21-10.25), with an average market price of 256220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 254500 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.67%.

The overall trend of tin prices in recent times has been fluctuating and adjusting. The current tight supply of tin ore has gradually spread to the smelting end, affecting the normal production of a small number of smelting enterprises. There are signs of recovery on the demand side, but the extent of recovery is relatively limited, and the overall supply and demand situation is basically stable. Recently, there have been frequent news about Myanmar’s low state, which has affected the market sentiment. We still need to pay attention to the progress of the situation in the future.

The operating rate of downstream soldering enterprises is good, with slight signs of recovery. Recently, tin prices have declined, and downstream demand for goods has warmed up. The overall trading performance in the market is still acceptable. Downstream feedback shows that prices have fluctuated significantly in recent times, and many end customers have become increasingly cautious in their wait-and-see attitude. Orders have not shown a significant increase yet, and the overall market sentiment is cautious as it maintains a strong demand for replenishment. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 2775 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the price of 2675 yuan/ton on the 28th of last month, with a growth rate of 3.74%.

The formic acid market had limited fluctuations in October, with companies quoting 2800-3200 yuan/ton and mostly shipping according to market conditions.

The upward momentum of raw material methanol is insufficient, and the overall production in the mainland market remains at a high level. With the restart of parking facilities in the early stage, the production in the regional market continues to increase, and the port market continues to accumulate inventory. The market supply is sufficient, and the price has fluctuated at a low level recently, weakening the cost support of formic acid.

Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides have a strong demand for raw material procurement, and market transactions are orderly. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is generally stable.

The formic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current cost support is average, and the market supply and demand are still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on October 25th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9087 yuan/ton. On October 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9412 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.45%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from October to present (10.1-10.25), the domestic cyclohexanone market has shown an overall trend of “rising first and then falling”. Returning from the National Day holiday, the downstream of cyclohexanone has experienced a phase of small stocking. Downstream demand has provided market support, and the supply side has also remained stable. With the support of supply and demand, the cyclohexanone market has continued to rise. On October 9th, the cyclohexanone market rose to a high point of the month, with a price reference of around 9600 yuan/ton.

However, with the downstream demand for cyclohexanone returning to calm and the raw material market falling, the support from the supply and demand sides for cyclohexanone has loosened, and the market situation has quickly begun to decline at a high level. In the latter half of the year, there is still insufficient positive news in the cyclohexanone market, and the focus of market negotiations continues to shift downwards. As the end of the month approaches, the cyclohexanone market has stopped falling and stabilized. As of October 25th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region is around 9050-9100 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall supply and demand performance of cyclohexanone is weak and stable, with market consolidation and operation as the main focus. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China remained stable with small fluctuations this week. As of October 16th, the average market price in East China was 13300 yuan/ton, and as of October 14th, the average price was 13300 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 30%.

This week, the TDI market has been consolidating and operating, with supplier quotations showing significant stability and small fluctuations, maintaining overall stability. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. The overall market trading is weak, with weak upward momentum.

The upstream toluene market continues to decline, with a significant increase in supply. Holders are actively shipping, while downstream purchasing intentions are more cautious, maintaining a focus on replenishing essential inventory.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market is significantly constrained by demand, and the attitude of suppliers to support prices has weakened. Under the guidance of weak and unprofitable news in the future market, it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 8th to 12th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5752 yuan/ton to 5675 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.32% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 18.20%. The domestic ethanol market prices have fluctuated and fallen, coupled with logistics restrictions and rising shipping costs, coupled with poor downstream demand, resulting in slow shipments and increased inventory pressure for enterprises. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. After the holiday, production companies have gradually lowered their offers, and the focus of the ethanol market has once again fallen.

On the cost side, import policies are tightening; Expected reduction in corn production in the new season; Farmers are reluctant to sell; The willingness of traders to build warehouses has increased; Macro environment improvement. Chen grain transfer; New corn on the market; Downstream demand is generally average; Downstream inventory is low, purchase on demand. Grassroots purchasing and sales are not prosperous, and the market supply is relatively even, with corn prices fluctuating within a certain range. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions of the market remains stable, and there may be maintenance plans for coal factories next week. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future forecast, the inventory of enterprises will increase and the willingness to ship will be strong, but downstream demand will continue to be weak. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

Since September, the butadiene rubber market has seen a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 16490 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.29% from 15370 yuan/ton at the beginning of September. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost has driven the rise of butadiene rubber; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. The supply price of Shunding rubber has been gradually increased within the month. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding by PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was between 16300 and 16600 yuan/ton.

Since September, the price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the cost of butadiene rubber has strong support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the price of butadiene was 13700 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.00% from 12925 yuan/ton at the beginning of September, and the low point during the cycle was 12400 yuan/ton.

In September, the domestic butadiene rubber plant started operating at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber was not significant.

Demand side: Since September, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high price of raw material butadiene will provide strong cost support for butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; Recently, downstream tire companies have been stocking up on butadiene rubber before the holiday, which has provided some support. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to maintain a high operating trend in the short term.